Assessing the Socio-Economic Decline of Pakistan

Your comments leave me with the impression as if the hate is one sided - the Pakistan side. But it takes two to tango. There is far more hatred towards Pakistan among Indians than there is hatred among Pakistanis towards India. That is my personal experience. Generally speaking, Pakistanis tend to be more open and welcoming towards Indians. But there is more hesitation from the Indian side to relax a bit and open up to the idea of peace.

Secondly, it is not true that Pakistan's economy is in a decline or in a mess. Read the reports by the IMF and the World Bank. According to them Pakistan's economy under Musharraf has been a generally success story. It is today a booming economy, with a consistent GDP growth rate of between 6.5% to 8%. If the new government does not get into revenge mode and continues with the economic policies of Musharraf, then things will be brighter for Pakistan.

There are a lot of assertions in this essay but no references have been offered so that readers can go to the original source to verify the accuracy of the claims being made. This makes me slightly sceptical regarding the quality of this essay since it is a good scholarly practise to provide your sources.

My scepticism then raises when I come across questionable assertions in this essay. For example, it is claimed that "major chunks of Pakistan’s budget goes to defense and debt servicing leaving practically insignificant amounts for the welfare of the people." This is false. 25% of Pakistan's GDP goes into debt servicing, which I believe is an acceptable level. In Nawaz Sharif's time, 65% of our GDP was utilised for debt servicing. So, under Musharraf, a notable (positive) change in this can be observed.

Other questionable assertions in this essay - at least the ones I can identify in my first reading - are the claims that there are no viable training programmes in Pakistan and about poverty. True, much needs to be done on these fronts. But let's accept the positive changes as well. Poverty has decreased by 10 to 11 percent in Pakistan and numerous training programmes are taking place in Pakistan for the benefit of the young, the graduates etc.

Of course, these are my very initial comments based on the first reading of the essay and I do not have my sources at hand. But given some time, I am sure many can write an adequate rebuttal to MOST of the claims in this essay.

What I find most disturbing is the contradiction between this essay and the claims made by sources such as the IMF, World Bank etc. According to the later, Pakistan's economic condition (under Musharraf) has UNDOUBTEDLY improved tremendously. While, no doubt, the lifting of sanctions played a positive role in this regard, the authorities also made a variety of structural reforms to improve its status.

If we are to follow the IMF, World Bank and other sources, then Pakistan's economic condition has improved and it is a booming economy, Asia's third fastest growing economy, after those of China and India. But according to Najeeb Kazmi, almost all is gloomy. Who should one believe? Personally, I would go along with the IMF and the World Bank.

Later, I will attempt to write a point by point rebuttal to this essay when I get the time.

as an indian i feel you guys are irreverently critical about your own state. why donot you open up trade with india. in three years it will climb to 6 bn usd. u import wheat from usa when its available right across the border. i recently heard,pakistani`s complainig about nokia phones made in india, this is the heights, this is overdoing things, its this fear or anger against india, thats really killing the economyof pakistan, its this fear that gives ammunition to the defence forces . bottom line make peace with india, open up trade and everything will be smooth. if not this vicious hate will eat from inside.

Re: # 2
Thanks Dr. Sohail and jayp for your comments. A wise person said that "we can only put our little wieghts on the scale of life". Similarly, this is what we could do as our little contributions towards a change. Pakistan as a country needs a total revamp and reversal of its priorities, demilitarization being one of them. But the key question is, "who will do it?"

dear najeeb...it is always wonderful to read your articles as they are based on rational and logical analysis rather than divine revelations. i like your idea of empowering masses with literacy as i believe in evolution rather than revolution. someone said that a politician thinks of next elections while a statesman thinks of next generation. i wished we had more statesmen than politicians in the world...there was a time the world had ho chi minhs and churchils and treadeus and in 21st century we have bush....and blair,,,,and musharraf....and osama...how sad...keep on writing and sharing...all the best...sohail

Najeeb,

Thank you for writing an article that is helpful, debatable and could lead to some understanding of the pak situation, where information could be helpful. Not many pakistanis on chowk beleive that jinnah and gandhi are dead, and future of pakistan is for the pakistanis to decide, not decided by jinnah in one speech.

There is only one formula for pakistan, from a saying from my land, if you are thinking of next year, plant rice, if it is ten years, then plant coconut trees, if it is 25 years from now, educate the children.

The jihadis were the first to follow this dictum, now yoy have a jihadic pakistan. I cannot see any quantum change in pak resource allocation, the jihadis are a political force, the military is another, and the islam is inimical to modern education. So my friend, the present is bleak, the future is bleaker. But the good part is there is a nadir, the bottom most point and then on there can be only progress.

So my dear pakistanis, mark my words, take it easy, indulge in as much corruption , killings as possible, and in that process you are only accelerating the decline and hence the eventual upturn.

Pakistan zindabad.