Blinkered Vision: Unravelling the Nuclear Debate

I think a US-India nuclear "deal" works well in favor of Pakistan. And we should be just glad that no such offer was made to us. The problem with Americans is that their companies, Haliburton on top of the list, are extracting nuclear fuel material from Central Asian republics like there is no tomorrow. But they can't sell it to other nations; can't expand their market. So if India signs the deal it will have to sign NPT and will be subject to IAEA regulations.

I don't think that in the end Hindu will go to that kind of hassle when same material is availble from Russians with no strings attached.

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#1 Posted by Urstruly on October 11, 2007 12:03:31 pm


So if India signs the deal it will have to sign NPT


Umm...I'm sure you didn't pull that out of your own ass because to do so, you'd have to get your head out first..

so where did you pull it out of?

This corageous young man. He has been tortuted many times by indian govt police people. He was one of few who agreed with pakistan about kashmir and suggested to give back pakistani terrotaries of pakistan like kashmir, and Nizam state and freedom to tamil and sikh people. He is extremely antielite and always beaten by indian police.Every country needs such self people. He had nice article and he is for good things humanity, heling poor, against nuclear bombs and and nuclear power. He could have become big man in hindi movies but opted for poverty and be friends with slum people. Hope international Human right protect him from bad people.

Re: # 1 Ustruely you are right. Indians have decived usa all times. They are useing china card to suck concessions. THEY will NOT BUY STUFF FROM USA. THIS is called loosening tactics and lowering prices for stuff they want. They are talking with Russia, china and specially with australia tobring down prices. Once I quoted what mr. Kissenger said about Indians , tthey make fool of others nice talking and stabbing people. Now we can learn from them in Iran gas price fixing. We have made mistake by agreeing to bargain for price at short intervals instead of as India sticking to energy price basket as Japan pays, as that will be fair only. You can not allow supplier to change price as price change will be always upward. Still we can hold and deley agreement on price formula and drive down prices. Too nuch gas production is leading to loss to international dealers. Canada is closing gas fields and gas output is reduced , international prices are depressed and we offering "too good" price with advantage on irani side to increase gas prices intermittently.USA will be dissatisfied with India not being antichina but by that time they have taken advantage ungentlemanly. You should not underrate enemy, there is war going with india unofficially. The gullible are talking about peace and they are laughing. It is credit to president at least he said India shoould helping terrorists in B.Stan, good start of being frank.Canada has also yellow cake but india want cheapest from australia the ore. Indians are useing america to start bargaining in international market for bomb stuff, yes they will use little for energy but you have correctly understand as usual Amerca is taking short cut and repent.

Madani sahib, so long as Patwari sort are alive, you and ustruly bhai need have no worries. Your interests will be fully protected.

Re: # 6 I am not sure about that. Those all bombs will not be flying to Ustruly to usa or canada but to Karachi to madani easily. As once Dr Khan told Mr. Nayyar in anger he can destroy bombay and delhi in few minutes , other party can also lead to massive retaliation is problem. I do not want next 20 years then you can blow each other I will be gone, then you can blow each other.I think lahore is best safe as Indian army full of Punjabis of all sort will not bomb Lahore as they love lahore as Salmon fish.All punjabis at heart want to die in Lahore even those who have not stepped there. USTRUly and other expaks can have caviler attitude such as autopsy doing doctor with rational mind. At other end end will so fast no pain. All interesting .Good day.

#5 Madani

Good news for you! Please do not loose sleep.

You have same desi genes as us. You have also played "cards to suck concessions" from many e.g., China, USA, Saudi Arabia, CEATO etc.

Hope now you feel better :).

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Harimau,

(Can they answer this one simple question? )

I will answer it on their behalf. They will oppose anything that is in India's best interest.

Regards

This is interesting. Sounds like people are quick to abuse the author but have no response to the issues he raised.

Indians just love slavery!

It would be easy to dismiss this article as the usual clap-trap of the China-loving, India-hating commies and Madani saheb in his post#4 has disrobed the author in his inimitable way. But we shouldn't.

Despite the fact that the communist bloc has its own ulterior motives for opposing this move, there should be genuine concerns regarding this agreement among Indians. The undeniable fact is that this Act would increase the US leverage over India and the US is one country which never hesitates to use all the leverage it has when it comes to its interests. Indians should remind themselves that the US did use this leverage against India when Vajpayee mobilised its armed forces and threatened Pakistan to agree to its twenty demands following the attack on Indian Parliament: It issued a travel advisory against both India and Pakistan, which was effectively only against India as nobody visiting Pakistan those days in any case. This created a rush of the IT companies in Bangalore to go to New Delhi and successfully plead with Vajpayee to move back the forces.

This deal may still be in India's interests and the Bush administration has indeed used all its influence to get it passed by a reluctant Congress. However, it is right to remember what India would be swallowing in order to get the benefits that this deal would bring India. And those benefits are indeed substantial despite what Mr Patwardhan and his ilk might say.

#12:

Sorry, I meant "China-loving, US-hating commies" (not India-hating).

DM sahib,

{Sorry, I meant "China-loving, US-hating commies" (not India-hating). }

No need to say sorry. The commies hate India as much as they hate US, maybe more.

Regards

There is only one thing more useful in politics than having the right friends, and that is having the right enemies. I think the UPA government is 'right' *looking at the Indian National Interest* to sign such a deal, let there be no doubts about it.

Although Ayub Khan *one of our very own brands who ruled Pakistan and is one of the co-accused for breaking up East Pakistan and sign deals like CENTO,SEATO and Bhadad Pact* during the end of his life - commented ,

'it's bad to be a American Enemy but Lethal to be his Ally'

btw, I have a friend ( a Chinioti Businessman - who owns one ofthe biggest rubber factory's in India uptil 1980's and who's g'father was mayor of Calcutta twice ) - moved to Karachi , Pakistan recently and is full of disgust and hate for 'Commies' as according to him - they ruined West Bengal.

Sometimes, I think the Religious Right in Pakistan could be compared to the Commies in India - both extreme.

Anand,

The nuclear deal is not good for india, it does not help develop indias own technology. It is a back door method to reduce green house gas emissions and to contain indias own nuclear industry. Once the deal is done, india will become euclear electricity dependant and the fear of fuel cut off will hang with so many other obligations identified by Anand.

India can develop adequately based on the nergy resource it has got.

In any case, the IT and the developing other services sectors are not energy intensive and the economy can be developed along a non-energy intensive path. The energy intesive industries like aluminium, steel etc can be done by other countries with such resources and all that is required is fo indianm companies to exand in such sectors abroad as teh Corus steel and coal mining in Indinesia that teh tatas have done.

By teh way wrolds largest combined undersea cable net work is owned by indian, tyco and flag.

#11 Posted by HP on October 11, 2007 11:11:44 pm


Indians just love slavery!


HAHA..pakis literally begged and cried for the deal and when they were repeatedly told NO, the grapes are now sour....

jayp, the starting point is: if Anand Patwardhans of this world oppose the deal, it must be good for the future of India and for Indian citizens.

But you raise an excellent issue of dependence on the US. Dr. Manmohan Singh and his team of negotiators and strategic thinkers (one hopes) are looking into it.

The noise being made is about bombs and testing. Its about the huge electricity market and related kickbacks stupid.

Scientists speak out:

Scientists appreciate government's stand on N-deal

October 14, 2007 15:12 IST

After Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's [Images] assertion that he will not put the government at stake over the Indo-US nuclear deal, scientists on Sunday hailed the stand saying the Centre has taken a sensible decision.

"It is the most sensible thing the government has done," former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman H N Sethna said, welcoming the remarks of Dr Singh.

"Ours is not a one-issue government and it will do all it can to avoid early polls," he said.

The UPA-Left stand-off over the Indo-US nuclear deal had given rise to the possibility of a mid-term poll. Dr Singh's statements on Friday along with Congress president Sonia Gandhi [Images] had put this speculation to rest.

Sethna said, "India is a huge democratic country and it is okay even if the process goes slow. We are not going to die. It all depends on 'how we define our objectives and the time table we chalk out for ourselves."

Dr P K Iyengar, also former Chairman AEC said: "The government made a mistake by not allowing the debate on the deal in Parliament. They should have shown the maturity of parliamentary democracy by having a debate."

He added that the 123 agreement was not a perfect document and was not done in a scientific way. There was always a danger of interpretation of it in favour of the US.

On the reprocessing issue, Iyengar said it was a blunder on part of India to have announced about the dedicated reprocessing facility and 'in fact this got into problems as such a facility can never be built.'

India should not allow the US to take rest of the world for granted, Iyengar said.

Iyengar said, even Jawaharlal Nehru did not allow advanced countries, in early 1950s for uranium mining here, as he said India was a sovereign country, Iyengar added.

Reacting to the recent statement by the Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammed ElBaradei on safeguards that 'the Indian government will have to take a decision and I will wait for them to come to Vienna to make a formal request (in this regard),' he said: "Does it mean, whatever informal consultations that were done by the Indian officials during the last one year has gone waste and was he (ElBaradei) calling for fresh negotiations?."

M R Srinivasan, member AEC, also echoed the similar sentiments and said, "The delayed deal is better than a bad deal. If we could bring the political consensus in a most democratic way, the current situation would not have arisen."

It is a fact that Hyde Act language is not India-friendly and the 123 agreement reflected that to some extent, he said.

"The only thing, if the deal had gone through, would have been that it would have paved way for India's integration into international arena," he added.

"Of course, we have to go by the decision of the country that is good for the country and as scientists we can only explain the situation and its pros and cons," Srinivasan said.

"We will continue with our indigenous programmes and look for more uranium reserves. Meanwhile, the two Russian reactors are under construction and some spade work is also being done with enthusiastic French nuclear industries," he concluded.

Dr A N Prasad, former BARC director and special envoy of IAEA on Iraq WMD, said unlike other bilateral agreement where they constitutionally bypass the Parliament, the bilateral deal on nuclear energy should have been considered little more seriously as involved commitment in perpetuity.

He said when most of the Parliament was opposing the deal the government should have gracefully or proactively allowed some discussion and taken a consensus.

Even when the 123 agreement was placed in the Parliament, it was a frozen document. There was no scope for fine tuning at all, Prasad said.

Prasad was also upset about the statements made by very senior politicians and diplomats on those who were just expressing their concerns on the deal.


"Are we not supposed to express our views? It was unbecoming of democracy," Prasad added.

He also pointed out that even if the deal comes through, the embargo would have got lifted only for the reactors and not for the equipment and technologies of entire fuel cycle.

“An editorial in Indian express averred, 'We must not loose sight of the broader picture. America is now the only super power. It is in our self interest to align with them. The greatest democracy on earth and the largest would have natural congruity of interests. If we don't, ...'.”

Welcome to slavery!

The above is really the only argument that BJP nuts have going for them.
The sticky about this agreement is that in the next 40 years, US is the only country that can cancel this agreement. Which means India cannot walk away from it or find other supply sources without the US approval first. The agreement implies that Indian cannot even use homegrown material without getting the US approval!

Indian need for power generation is not exaggerated. They need that source but the Nuke tests of 90s have permanently closed the door for India to get nuke power plants going without mortgaging the national interests. The hoopla that lasted little more than couple of weeks has created this situation.

With this agreement India will not only kiss its nuke option goodbye but this will also end the Indian dream of matching China as the regional power. After signing this agreement, India will never be able to dangle its nuke against Pakistan. Initially the nuke tests were done to intimidate Pakistan. That option is about to go away too as Pakistan will retain its ability to conduct nuke tests and India will not.

Indian will invest heavily in developing nuke energy and all that investment will be dependent on the US goodwill. If at certain point in future the US is unhappy with India for any reason, Indians will see all their investment come to naught within minutes of an adverse US decision. The Indian foreign and domestic policies will depend on the US pleasure and India will be another Afghanistan of the area.

Welcome to the club!

#22 Posted by HP on October 14, 2007 9:40:23 am


If at certain point in future the US is unhappy with India for any reason, Indians will see all their investment come to naught within minutes of an adverse US decision.


HAHA....the grapes are not only sour but they are poisonous and will kill you..

HP,

Pakistani unhappiness with the agreement is an excellent sign for Indian to give it a go ahead, but the following paragraph is quite relevant:

"The sticky about this agreement is that in the next 40 years, US is the only country that can cancel this agreement. Which means India cannot walk away from it or find other supply sources without the US approval first. The agreement implies that Indian cannot even use homegrown material without getting the US approval!"

If that is true, then we need to be careful with what we are doing.

I would love to hear from some non-leftist Indians on these spcific points. Thanks in advance.

#21 Posted by dost_mittar on October 14, 2007 2:57:35 am

read up on thorium reactors. google india and thorium reactors.


‘Indo-US nuclear deal not perfect, but a net plus’


Chennai, Sept 10

The Indo-US nuclear deal has been the most controversial issue in recent weeks, even leading to speculation of a mid-term election in the event of a likely withdrawal of support to the ruling UPA coalition Government.

Those opposing the deal, chiefly the Leftist parties, point to the possibility of Indian interests becoming subservient to those of the US should the agreement be finalised in its present form.

But Dr S. Paul Kapur, a visiting professor at the Center for International Security and Co-operation (CISAC), Stanford University, thinks that the Indo-US nuclear deal, “while not perfect, is a net plus.”

Interacting with Business Line over the email, Dr Kapur, who is the author of ‘Dangerous Deterrent: Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia’ (Stanford University Press 2007), conceded that there are a nu mber of legitimate concerns being voiced by most of the deal’s detractors in the US, but added that the deal has likely economic, strategic and diplomatic benefits for India.

"A new 1,400-megawatt nuclear power plant is going to cost about $2.6 billion," he said. "It is going to take 6 1/2 years to build.” WP

The cost now is about $3 billion and large plants could cost up to $10 Billion.
I don’t know how many Indians have planned to build. Simply put, India does not have the money to pay for them. And like any other big ticket Investment, India will have to borrow the money from the International Banks (mostly US). ) major % of the equipment will be bought in the US. These are some solid reason to support the agreement as India on its own can never get this going.

With the US in the agreement, financing and equipment and the technical know-how would be of enormous help. This is a double-edged sword. While the benefits are enormous, the downside has huge implications too. With this kind of investment going in India, the US banks will certainly gain a good control over Indian fiscal policies. The equipment supplier will too gain policy changing voice in Indian affairs. The US government will not only be the spokesperson for the finance and the equipment suppliers but it will also be the arbitrator of the disputes that India will have with monitoring agencies.

The same equipment suppliers are the arms manufacturers too. So India will have to buy for its defense needs real or created, from these suppliers. These suppliers excel in cross selling and bribery both.

Pakistan’s entry in to the US sphere started with the Korean War when the US allowed Pakistan to make enormous sums of money and then turned round and made the Pakistan army dependent on the US arms supplies. With two major punches in the US hands, it was not difficult to sign Pakistan on for supporting the US for generations to come.
The pattern in this deal is quite obvious too.

But really what options third world countries have? They have their national aspirations and I can fully sympathize with the dilemma that the Indian government faces. Power demand can never go down. With 60% population going dark every evening and not having the ability to support the power needs of heavy industry, India has to bend.

The national interests sometimes can be achieved by compromising lots of positions and India is at the stage where it feels that by bending over now, it might secure the future.
It may be illusory but nationalists often make this type of choices. With the US, Indian can only hope for the best.

Re: # 26 Let us hope people of India defeat plans of Govt of India to enslave India. It is good it was not offered to us otherwise unwise rulers of pakistan would have become slave without bickering. All if america is not involved in India is better. Our neighboorhood should be free of western domination which can lead to troubles. It has advantaged power crippled India can not make easily war on pakistan. One should have no sympathy in power politics. Tour sympathising is not good. Indian progress is not good for all its neighbourhood. Pakistan and china should form joint alliance for energy and pak- china companies can bid on big mineral exploration areas. China is developing and putting lots of money in oil areas we can be partner in , also invest money in China neclear power plant engineering similar to joint fighter airplane production. Iran is goos partner, Irans emnormaus mineral energy resources combined with our techanical expertise and technical man power will help Iran and power demand in pakistan. Any way hopefully India usa dael is already dead for good

HP sain,

(Indian will invest heavily in developing nuke energy and all that investment will be dependent on the US goodwill.)

Deal or no deal, N-power will remain a marginal source of power in India. Coal (local or imported) will continue to dominate, followed by hydel and gas (if available at reasonable prices).

Regards

HP 26,

Money at least for now is not a problem. Coal fired what is termed the ultra mega powerplants of 4000 MW each are coming up in the private sector with current price of approximately Rs 2 per Kwh with 25 year contract.

These power stations operating at around 2000 Kg/cm sq pressure, called super critical steam are highly efficient.

So nuclear power with only one source of supply has a high degree of risk.

India is likely to develop in a low energy intensive manner, to give an example Indian installed power capacity is around 100 GW, china around 500 Gw and the US around 900Gw

Jayp,

(Coal fired what is termed the ultra mega powerplants of 4000 MW each are coming up in the private sector with current price of approximately Rs 2 per Kwh with 25 year contract.)

The ultra-mega power projects based on locally sourced coal are promising power at much less around Rs. 1.20/unit, while imported coal based are promising power at Rs. 2.20/unit.

Regards

Generation will be done by private-public set ups, mostly private (I think). Financing will be sourced through international secondary markets.

Whatever be the scenario, production costs will be subsidized OR competition will be restricted and prices will be regulated through average cost pricing. The providers and financiers will ask for ex-ante commitment. Once this is done, everything will be done through back-room negotiations (which may already have started).

In short:

Potential growth of the market will be deliberately curtailed (regulated) to facilitate large payoffs to nuclear producers when they enter the market. This process must already have started. But nobody is talking about it openly. Behind closed doors, political parties must be demanding their pound of flesh.

I do not see excess-demand vanish in the Indian market over the next 15-25 years. I am not saying that the nuclear agreement is necessarily bad. I do not give a damn about nuclear weapons etc. I just do not mant to see Dhabol/Enron re-enacted on a massive scale.

GT,

(Whatever be the scenario, production costs will be subsidized OR competition will be restricted and prices will be regulated through average cost pricing.)

Increasingly the trend in the domestic power sector is to go for competitive price based bidding. Regulators both at the state and central level are taking a close look at costs being offered by the power producers before approving tariffs.

Regards

Majumdar,

Thanks for that. Once the centralised mode of electricity generation is replaced by distributed mode with photovoltaics and wind power, the savings are phenomenal, typically the parasitic loses, due to wire resistance, the inductive current flows etc account for nearly 30 percent in india, which will be reduced dramtically as the locally produced electricity will be consumed locally.

I do believe that a low energy development path is possible in India.

As you might be aware, 50 percent of diesel fuel is used by the railways, and jatropha oil is being trialed for teh railways.

In any case, nothing much in terms of electricity will be lost if teh 123 agreement becomes 123 0 agreement.

Majumdar:

"Regulators both at the state and central level are taking a close look at costs being offered by the power producers before approving tariffs."

This is exactly where the problem starts - looking at costs. Try figuring out how the cost of capital should be calculated and you will get into all the problems associated with average cost pricing. The man behind "competitive power sector" in India is Kirit Parikh. He is corrupt and an arrogant idiot.