Where's the news?

yes, failed states have their own dynamics and can be unpredictable - but I think in case of pakistan, this implosion can be a controlled implosion...

Despite everything - pakistan is no Sudan - it still has a core intact and an functioning establishment and an elite group of rulers which has too much lose... the paki rulers are always aligned with US and they know that side of the bread is buttered... so when this failed state situation comes down to a particular threshold - they will make a deal...

So India just needs to sit back and watch... may even help the process discreetly to take it to the threshold...

What india needs is a 1971 redux... we should have finished the job at that time - but we didn't - partly because international situation wasn't really conducive... a failed pakiland may provide yet another such opportunity...

The ideal result for all concerned, pakis themselves included, is a federalized pakiland with autonomous provinces and a controlled defence force geared for only internal stability - with no external offensive goals or capabilities... somewhat like japan after WW2. This can happen only when the current pakiland reaches a failed state threshold...

Let me give pakis the credit too: pakiland has the potential to become a successful muslim-manority state - the only successful muslim-majority in the region... but it has to be re-designed and re-formatted for that to happen...

All said and done - pakis are descendants of Grandpa Gopinath... even with rampant bedouinism, they still retain their hindu-laced culture - they still have a decent civil society and population of hard-working, fairly intelligent abduls... All that is needed is a pacifist ruling system with no military adventurism... certain autonmous units in the New Pakiland may even choose to have sharia but as long as military capabilities of the new state are controlled - it will work just fine...

If you think about it - it works for everybody... China will be happy too... and it will have a stabilizing effect on afganistan, the other failed state...

Jinnah's dream still may come true...

I thought one of the major objectives of this website is to provide a forum where people from entire South Asia can have concrete dialogue in a frank yet still tolerant manner. Religous tolerance is one of the foremost tenants of idealism- after all the title says "unflinching idealism since 1997".
Regretably most of the dialogue degenrates into hateful expressions from both Pakistani and Indian sides.
What has been the role and actual achivement of both countries in ensuring religous and ethinic tolerace within themselves.
These hateful exchanges on a supposedly progressve site committed to "unflinching idealism" is perhaps a jolting reminder that we need to still travel a long distance.

Re: # 68
[...we need to still travel a long distance...]

True... How far have you travelled from "Pakistan ka Matlab Kya, La ilhaha Allah illah"?

My post is for both the sides and I have used the word "we" and questioned the contribution of both the countries in promoting religous tolerance. Your accusation merely reinforces my earlier post. All I am trying to point out is that religous tolerance needs to be promoted and if we can not show mutual respect on a supposedly progressive site then whats the point?
But I would definately agree with you that Pakistan does need to travel beyond "Pakistan ka Matlab Kya, La ilhaha Allah illah"? I am not some one who belongs to right wing and therefore I am all for promoting a moderate Pakistan with religous freedom and respect for all.
But in my opinion India also needs to make further progress from its own brand of religous intolerance. Lets not make it a ego problem, progress is needed from both sides. That is all- no hard feelings

Romair #56
-Isnt there are reason that the major players seeking power (mushy, bb & ns) are assuring the US of unstinted support for the "war against terrorism"?

If Pakistan refuses to cooperate, it could spell economic disaster for Pakistan. Iran's economy is barely afloat because of the oil revenue. Pakistan doesnt have that luxury.Sanctions will hurt badly.

There is also a paranoid fear that India will jump in & take advantage of the situation.

If you feel the majority of Pakistanis are against the war in Waziristan, it will be reflected in the next general elections. It will certainly be interesting (to say the least) if MMA wins.

arjun

""why is a stable pureland necessary to india's progress anymore than a stable nepal or bangladesh is? "

India hasnt had a war with Nepal & Bangladesh. If, God forbid, Pakistan becomes a failed state with nuclear weapons--the whole world, esp India would be taking a dump.

#72 Posted by shankar on October 19, 2007 10:36:59 am

a non-failed pureland has repeatedly threatened to drop nukes on india and a non-failed pureland has repeatedly used islamic terrorists, the ones who killed 100+ pakis yesterday, against India..

so please explain to me in detail how it would be any different..all I keep hearing is "it'll be bad..trust us"..

shankar #71: ....i saw, first hand, pakistan unflinching support to the usa, in the first afghan war.....i was in the military, and every pakistani rep and soldier was a vip...we were attending free courses in usa (out of which i got one, also).....zia ul haq - a person who had nothing in common with america - was a hero in the usa.....i was in a room with american soldiers, when they gave a standing ovation to the mujahideen, after seeing a video of ahmed shah masood......

.......pakistan went overboard supporting the usa, and ended up holding the bag.......it never had klashnikovs, drugs, refugees, extremism etc. before afghan war 1.......after the war, it had all these......as the usa packed up, along with the rest of the world.......

.......i can make a bet the exact same thing will happen now......pakistan's economy is not going to sink without us loans........pakistan's economy runs on remmittances from expat pakistanis (and now on investments from arab firms)...the loans from world bank etc. have already been rescheduled......and usa is not going to sanction pakistan.......i am not saying pakistan should declare usa the great satan and get into a war with it.......

......i am only saying pakistan should be neutral......let the americans fight the taliban on their own, and vice versa.....

......germany and holland's population are putting huge pressure on their govt. to withdraw from aghanistan......they have, barely, lost 15 people combined, and have not had a single explosion in their countries...and they are members of nato, yet they want out......canadians want out, and they have barely lost double digit soldiers.......spain exited out of iraq after one explosion in spain.....

.......what is the world is pakistan doing fighting usa's war, even after losing 500-750 sodiers and having one explosion after another in its borders.....

......if the usa had even five explosions, within its borders, i am sure they would be doing a political deal with taliban and not bombing the place......

......there is absolutely no way for pakistan (or usa or anyone else) to win this war through military force.....look at the mess the usa is in, in iraq and afghanistan, despite gigantic military efforts........how in the world is pakistan going to win it through force, even if it is a legitimate war?........

what will happen is, as follows:.....pakistan will continue to lose soldiers, as cannon fodder, since the nato countries are unwilling to lose their own....after all, it is first and foremost nato forces responsibility in stopping the taliban from crossing into pakistan.......however they don't want to lose any soldiers, so the usa wants pakistan to do this dirty job......

.......pakistani leadership will be pressurised by usa to bomb, "suspected" taliban hideouts in pakistan's tribal areas.....musharraf and bb, with gyrate their hips, and do the bombing.......such bombings and raids, may kill the actual target, but will result in far more innocent civilian deaths......thereby further radicalizing the local population......the local population will not be able to target the usa, as it is too far away......however, they can easily target pakistan.......they will employ al-qaeda's endless supply of suicide bombers to bomb islamabad etc........

.......this is exactly what is happening in iraq......on a dialy to hourly basis........it is starting to happen in pakistan at a weekly to monthly basis......a market close to my house in islamabad has been bombed......there was an outright battle in a mosque close to my house in islamabad....cherat, which is the home of pakistan's special services and is near a hill station, next to nowhere - making it one of the most secure sites in pakistan had its officers mess bombed.......anyone can be hit anywhere by a suicide bomber......

...........it's about time, pakistan did what spain, holland, germany (and now uk) and eventually canada are and will do......tell usa to fight its own war......pakistan isn't even in nato!, yet it is so loyal........

........pakistan should also tell the waziristanis that they cannot declare war on their own, on the usa, without the permission of the state of pakistan......if they still want to do it, then pakistan should tell them, they are on their own, if the usa attacks them.........they should not come crying to pakistan govt........

after that, let the americans and the taliban fight it out, without getting involved.......do keep in mind that prior to the usa's gwot in afghanistan, pakistan had never had a suicide bombing, the tribals had never attacked pakistan and were quite pro-pakistan, and the only terrorism in pakistan was of the shia-sunni tiny extremist parties, which was limited to religious sites, with zero public support.........not to mention that even the mainstream, non-violent religious political parties were never able to win more than five seats in the national assembly......after the usa's bombings, religious parties formed govts. in two of pakistan's four provinces....

now it is slowly turning into a free for all........and will get worst, if pakistan doesn't get out of this useless war that the usa has gotten stuck in......had afghanistan been bordering usa, with al-qaeda bombing downtown washington weekly, the usa would have had a political solution within a few days, with the taliban.......any sensible country knows that it is not worth it to have your cities be the target of suicide bombers..........

Romair,
I dont dispute that Pakistan's unstinted support has caused a lot of problems for Pakistan.But then, why is mushy and bb still willing to, as you say, gyrate their hips?

If the Pakistani economy is able to withstand any punitive action from the US, why is it in their interest to gyrate their hips?

arjun# 73

Jihadis are fanatics & suicidal. If they get their hands on nuclear bombs you dont think they will use it?

shankar #: "If the Pakistani economy is able to withstand any punitive action from the US, why is it in their interest to gyrate their hips?"

....good question....

....the answer is quite straightforward......you will be surprised to realize how much influence the usa has in pakistani politics....i think the usa itself doesn't realize it.....pakistani politics is controlled by army, america and allah.....you have to have two of these on your side.....

......musharraf has gone against, "allah" - metaphorically speaking - with his joining the usa and with enlightened moderation.......he has the army under his control....and he, now, has to have america with him.....

.......he has no constitutional base, nor electoral base.....so he has to fully commit to usa......

.....benazir has an electoral base, but still needs two of the three......she has realized that army is too well established, in pakistani politics.......so she has decided to join hands with it......

......she also knows that pakistanis are very pro-allah and anti-usa........but with the current situation in the world, she cannot push the pro-allah agenda......so she has decided to be fully pro-usa........

........this is why both are gyrating their hips to the usa......and i think will gyrate successfully, at least in the short term.........

.......however, long term, i think allah (i.e. maulvis) will win out......at their core, ppp is a feudal party, with total disregard for the common man, who is basically their hari or disciple......bb is massively corrupt.......

musharraf was ok for three years, but the longer ther army stays in power, the more corrupt it becomes.......musharraf has outstayed his welcome.....

......bb and musharraf's aim is only to stay in power......all other items are secondary......

rf 54

"Failure is not an option for Pakistanis or Indians as a failed state with 160million souls will spell diseaster for this entire region."

Wake up my friend, failed state of pakistan is not something for tomorrow, it is right there.
Take note of teh following

..pak army is negotiating with the tribals for teh release of 300 soldiers. they have their own territory and have invited bbc reporters. Pak army does not dare to go to those areas because they are afraid, the army cannot fight. Wziristan is no more part of pakistan. Territoria integrity is gone, the tribals have their own laws...

..now take the heart of pakistan, islamabad..the lal mosque guys for several months ran their own social policy by attacking teh near by music shops etc. Only when they captured teh chionese brother operators did teh army move in. There is no law enforcement agency in pakistan, in islambad.

..Let us not talk about crime in karachi..

Pakistan is a failed stste, right now and no one can chaneg that.. change will come only after the bearded generals take over, that will be in ten years time, teh latest

Re: # 78

jayp sahib,

My dear, what u have simply stated the obvious there is nothing new in these facts. We all know how the writ of Govt has failed, but this aint nuthin yet. Imagine, if this is just the begining what do u think it will be like when the entrie system breakdowns? Then u guys will be looking for the UN to send in some sort of peacekeeping force because the refugee problem from Sindh or Punjab will be unbearable, violent groups will be looking for safe houses across the border, since there will be no borders smuggling of essential items will become rampant etc etc etc. Bhai, its not that difficult to understand, only if u keep a open mind.

#76 Posted by shankar on October 19, 2007 5:37:26 pm


Jihadis are fanatics & suicidal. If they get their hands on nuclear bombs you dont think they will use it?


you greatly underestimate the willingness of the paki army and ruling class to hold on to their ruling position in pureland..

if the jihadis launch an attack, india is sure to retaliate and retaliate big..if it does, all the land the paki army top brass is getting for growing "vegetables" and for "poultry" will be useless..they'll do whatever they need to do to keep that from happening..

don't believe me? take a look at pureland today...allah's army is using F-16s and artillery against their own citizens..other than captain clueless, who is always right in hindsight, who could have predicted that?

besides.. think about kargil and the islamic terrorism in kashmir..that could have led to a full war too..and that was done by the supposedly non-suicidal and non-fanatical paki army...so I don't see the difference..