Will President Bush Invade Iran?

the ayatollahs must go

....... it really doesn't matter how close iran is to acquiring nuclear weapons, but eventually it will and that is something we cannot tolerate as long as it is ruled by religious nutcases ........ the aim should be regime change, not just taking out a few military installations ....

....regime change can be brought about by a complete economic embargo, combined with support for local opposition groups and selective bombing of military and nuclear targets ........ it might take ten or more years, but it must happen ...... otherwise the world will be sorry

Re: # 29 even two to three years ..these guys will lose out.....

most of these countries are two bit nations who would not be more than asmall itch were it not for the oil and they will be reduced to that if they go to the 150-200 $ oil. just an example Angola....know what is the thing people fight there for these days...columbite-tantalite (coltan to you and me) ...it is the most valuable resource currently....without it our miniaturisation of gadgets would not have been possible....

Does Iran's president want to "wipe Israel off the map?"

Check sources...

http://www.doublestandards.org/tilley3.html

http://www.thetruth seeker.co.uk/print.asp?ID=5866

Dash,

(Short terms gain yes for the producers but long term in 10 years or more they will be the biggest losers. )

In the long-term we are all dead. People are more likely to look at what they will gain in the next 2-3 years than what is going to happen in 10 years from now.

Regards

#27 they will lose out.....as it is this is the age when people are worried about global warming and worried about the nature of adding more carbon to the carbon cycle ....and there is a rush towards energy efficiency and alternatives.

if it does hit $150...countries like India and china (where demand for energy is increasing), the US and Europe where there is a huge consumption, will move towards alternatives and efficiency. The Net result would be a reduction is consumption and an advancement of technologies leaveing these guys even more behind.

Today there is a whole of investment going on in these areas (even in countries like China and India). Short terms gain yes for the producers but long term in 10 years or more they will be the biggest losers.

Dash,

(Even Venezuela is hedging its bets...but is more inclined towards its fellow continental.)

All oil exporting countries would be praying for a Iran War. Who gains most if oil touches say US$150.

Regards

There are a few options

(a) War to neutralise this threat
(b) Withdraw from International obligations
(c) do nothing

Purely from an American POV (b) is the best option since it can survive by itself...and carryon. But the Rest of the World will suffer immensely from this (atleast that is my limited understanding......economists can expound on this) and they will call on the US to take up its international responsibilities.....which means it will have to do (a). Option C is not really an option.

China, Japan, Europe, SEAsia, ASEAN (and the fellow ummahiets Saudis, GCC etc) will have to go with (b) there will be arguments over the operationality but not the actual decision itself. Minnows from Africa, SAmerica, India will be like little pipsqueaks shout a lot but they have no cajones at all and can be eaten by either side.

The politics of the threats have to play out.....lets see if Iran backs down....the only winners in this game will be the US and Russia. The rest, it depends on whose coat tails they float on. Even Venezuela is hedging its bets...but is more inclined towards its fellow continental.

see also this

(a)http://www.iranexpert.com/2002/economicsdriveiraneurooil23august.h tm

(b)http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article8354.htm
"Iran does not pose a threat to the United State because of its nuclear projects, its WMD, or its support to "terrorists organizations" as the American administration is claiming, but in its attempt to re-shape the global economical system by converting it from a petrodollar to a petroeuro system. Such conversion is looked upon as a flagrant declaration of economical war against the US that would flatten the revenues of the American corporations and eventually might cause an economic collapse"

(c)http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0830/p03s01-wome.html "Iran's oil gambit "

(d)http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2314.cfm Iran's Oil Bourse: A threat to World Economy

(e)http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2314.cfm "Iran: Euro to replace dollar as oil currency"

(f)http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/ar ticle1263954.ece "Iran turns from dollar to euro in oil sales"

These are all from 2004-2006....and in the western press....the story has been going on....for sometime. Infact the Financial Times had a reasonable article on this sometime back...wil dig it up if I can.

There are a few options

(a) War to neutralise this threat
(b) Withdraw from International obligations
(c) do nothing

Purely from an American POV (b) is the best option since it can survive by itself...and carryon. But the Rest of the World will suffer immensely from this (atleast that is my limited understanding......economists can expound on this) and they will call on the US to take up its international responsibilities.....which means it will have to do (a). Option C is not really an option.

China, Japan, Europe, SEAsia, ASEAN (and the fellow ummahiets Saudis, GCC etc) will have to go with (b) there will be arguments over the operationality but not the actual decision itself. Minnows from Africa, SAmerica, India will be like little pipsqueaks shout a lot but they have no cajones at all and can be eaten by either side.

The politics of the threats have to play out.....lets see if Iran backs down....the only winners in this game will be the US and Russia. The rest, it depends on whose coat tails they float on. Even Venezuela is hedging its bets...but is more inclined towards its fellow continental.

from the same article quoted in #22

"In 2005-2006, The Tehran government has a developed a plan to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-denominated international oil-trading mechanism. This means that without some form of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project for U.S. global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in the international oil market

here is one of the reasons why Iran could be hit...

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html

The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker

"The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraq’s oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse."



If Iran does this - even China will be hit since almost all their affairs are in $$$$ ....

here is one of the reasons why Iran could be hit...

#17 by bulleya

....he was quite convinced that an attack on iraq would be the best thing since sliced bread....

And you were convinced that Indians would have to wear T-shirts with the Paki flag to feel safe in the days after 9/11. What happened then? You were forced to flee to Canada and now Pakistan.

Very much doubt that USA would try to invade Iran when they are already being stretched thin in Iraq and Afghanistan and with oil prices over US$90. But then again with looneys you never know.

Regards

Dear Writer,

Will US attack Iran? Seemed a certain thing early 2007, but since then things have cooled down and very recenltly picked up steam as the Russians jumped in with their unbridled support to the Iranian Government.

Most probably, strategy of maintaining intense pressure on the Iranian Govt will continue and its very unlikely that the Us will take military action. Aerial bombardment by the Israelis cannot be ruled out.

...an attack on iran will be even more disastrous than the attack on iraq.....an easy way to figure out what should be done in such cases, is to narrow in on what hamidm mian states....and then to do the opposite....he was quite convinced that an attack on iraq would be the best thing since sliced bread....unfortunately, there are still quite a few individuals in the usa with his mindset...

.....iran is a totally different can of worms than iraq (and afgahnistan)...and the usa has totally lost in those two countries.....iran is a much larger population, with a much homogenous population, three times the geographic area of iraq and has an elected leader.....it is functioning society with an organized armed forces, etc......

.....there was an interesting article by a retired us officer on what would happen if the usa attacked iran.....i will try to locate it.....

.....basically, all iran would need to do is to start bombing the straits of hormuz and to target us forces in iraq.....that would send the price of oil through the roof.....and would totally destablize the usa in iraq.....where it has yet to face air and missile strikes....

then again, it is not beyond the bush govt. to strike iran.....even when it has been defeated in afghanistan and iraq....

.....in the process, iraq will be squeezed.....it will have turkey attacking from one side and iran from the other.....

interestingly, usa has the most powerful stockpile of nukes in the world.....it is the only country that has used nukes.....it carries out attacks on other countries around once ever two to four years.....it has used more armament since ww11 and has killed more people since ww11 than any country in the world......

iran, as far as i know, hasn't invaded a country for 200 years.....and it doesn't even have nukes.....

under what formula is iran a bigger danger to the world than the usa.......

i think the usa may attempt to launch missile and some air strikes against iran.....but it has no soldiers left to invade......and if it did, it would be defeated again....

......the most crucial part will be the reaction of iran to these air and missile strikes......