Will President Bush Invade Iran?

Re: # 80 not unless you change the international agreements (both overt and covert agreements) (by covert I mean those components which do not see the light of day).

The european superstate is fine but IT DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES LIKE THE US DOES TO BE ABLE TO Absorb the world trade. (apologies for the caps lock - keyboard got stuck). Europe stopped absorbing the world surplus when it gave up its empire. Now even Europe gets a cold if the US stops taking its stuff in.....

yes hamidm you are right just like ahmedenijad and alqaidi have a goal so do the neocons they believed that the rise of alqaia and other dictatorships like saddam and gadafi was due to US not supporting democracies in the past, they believed Iraq with the most educated population, secular govt and female participation and unpopular dictator as well as artificially justifable threat to the us/israel could be used to rally public opinion.

Iraw was a lab, but as Zakaria says that policy has ben a complete faliar because they didnot bet on the fundamental extremism of certain shias and sunnis and never put enough troops on the ground.

hamidm: "the world could have avoided the carnage of ww-ii if the leaders at that time had the gonads to invade nazi germany "
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people never remember what could have happened. they only remember what happened. some times it is better to let things happen.
presence of bad people in the set increases the importance of good people in the set.

I say, let iran have the bomb.
If you fear, they might drop it on jews, then may eb best course if to let them do that. you think Iran would be better off after that? may be 50 years after that event (if it happens) few iranians will sit in a cold cave hukkabaar and discuss bush in favorable terms:-) if that(bomb on jews) does not drop, then even better.

also the us thought they would be welcomed by the shias after they betrayed them in 91, and killed millions more through their support of one side and then the other in iran-iraw war but the shia have long memories as you can see every muharram

dash_dot euro denomination of oil by iran will not make as big a difference as you think it wont form more than 10 to 14% of world oil turnover. It is the arab states shift that will cause a major shift but even that will not make a significant diff to a US econ well over 12trillion us dollars.

naqsh the chinese will not dump their dollar reserves because that would itself plummett the value of dallars and thereby their own reseves. what they might do is not purchase any more dollars but that would mean allowing their currency to appreciate and thereby hiting their own export sector which is the main driver of their boom, so it is unlikely to be done in a big way

dash_dot euro denomination of oil by iran will not make as big a difference as you think it wont form more than 10 to 14% of world oil turnover. It is the arab states shift that will cause a major shift but even that will not make a significant diff to a US econ well over 12trillion us dollars.

naqsh the chinese will not dump their dollar reserves because that would itself plummett the value of dallars and thereby their own reseves. what they might do is not purchase any more dollars but that would mean allowing their currency to appreciate and thereby hiting their own export sector which is the main driver of their boom, so it is unlikely to be done in a big way

A strike on Iranian strategic interests is not only possible but it is making more and more business sense as the days go by. The following must be considered why and if attack happens;

1. Iran will be restricted to strike back effectively since US and Europe both have openly threatened to respond with a nuclear strike.

2. The Iranian retaliation in the region, that is, putting a hurdle in the Bay of Hormuz will only hurt Europeans, Japanese and Chinese interests; whereas US buys 90% of its oil from Venzuela and Canada. During the two Gulf wars there has been virtually no side effect on fuel prices with in america.

3. US economy is headed towards recession as it always does at the end of Republican reign. So as the prices of oil will go up elsewhere US business will resuscitate itself into life by offering cheap product due to a combination of low US exchange rate and unrestricted fuel supply.

4. An attack will force Iran's neghbors to buy more stockpiles of outdated weapons which US factories are producing 24/7 - an industry which was almost on the verge of collapse before 2nd Gulf war.

5. Iran has to be set as an example for the Latin American countries that are leaning towards socialism restricting private eneterprise.

6. The war profiteers like chenney and mercenaries like black water have tasted blood as the warfare has become a private enterprise. Currently, there are 160K+ mercanries working in Iraq it means 160K families in US owe their living by creating wars elsewhere (not to mention population directly involved in military industrial complex). That has emerged as a very strong voting lobby.

7. Christian religious nuts are itching for the war as well hoping that it will extend the stay of "Crusaders" in the lands where Jesus Christ (pbuh) will appear. Hoping that he will come and bless them for creating such murder and mayhem upon humanity.

8. White house spokesperson has expressed in unequivocal terms that Iran will NOT be attacked and there are no plans. It neans that there are plans in the works and its just a matter of time.

So I guess all stars are aligned. Iran's best option is to declare itself nuclear and threaten to wipe off all neigboring US client states if they aided and abbetted any attack on Iran.

let see who blinks first the iranians, the US or Israel it will be interesting. from all the big talk the us seems to have pushed itself into a corner

"2. The Iranian retaliation in the region, that is, putting a hurdle in the Bay of Hormuz will only hurt Europeans, Japanese and Chinese interests; whereas US buys 90% of its oil from Venzuela and Canada. During the two Gulf wars there has been virtually no side effect on fuel prices with in america."

urstruly oil is a fungible commodity i.e. its prices are determined on a global level plus or minus transportation costs, oil prices within the US have never deviated from international prices give or take costs of transport it doesnt matter wether it gets its oil from latin america they will sell the oil at the new higher inter. rates.

U are confusing oil prices with availability of oil; availability to the US will be unrestricted in any case because iran canot block global sea lanes and the us anyway has a strategic reserve for short term emergencies

Re: # 78 Posted by hamidm2 on October 30, 2007 10:15:28 am

[.... now why would they do that? ....]

large scale subjugation of people who don't give a rats ass about their civilization and still has enough juice to defend their homeland.

Re: # 56 Posted by tahmed32 on October 30, 2007 8:49:39 am

[hamimd: persians are white men. swatis are white men. tribal area boys are white men. so why are they not perfect??]

because they have beards, and their mouth is full of nuswaar.

bubba juice our prophet did not recognise any nationality, the only nationality was muslim.

$300 a barrel would be a boom for Solar energy and other alternate energy companies....
at $300 a barrel, a solar powered house, 1 electric powered commute car and 1 gas powered for long distances would make perfect sense.

dullahbhatti the problem is the price will not go and hold at 200 or 300, it will seesaw, jacklash/whiplash creating instability, stockmarkets especially of china and india and even in some oecd countries will plummett

The question is does Iran have the balls and the ability to strike at targets in the persian gulf after the US/Israel bombs it first?

Re: # 94

I think the stockmarkets in both Indian and Chian will not plumet there might be some turbulence thats it...

What is likely to happen is that alternative techs will be produced and they will produce greater economic strenght and the oil producers will be left behind cursing the day they started being head-strong and beleiving in their own strenght...