Political Quandary in Pakistan

Re: # 26
How does this news mean that missing kids are in madrisah? Its not the only school in area. Most of the government schools face the problem that the number of students is too large. I have been teaching at a college and the strength of one section in 2006 in first year was 125 and there were a total of 16 sections. Everey year thousands of applications are rejected in our college and all of those kids come from schools.
I sometimes feel ashamed how our intellectuals manipulate situations or atleast try to manipulate for their vested interests

tango 33,

Give me a break, you mean to say that there are areas in karachi where there are no school going children with a birth rate of more than 3.

'US should back Musharraf to secure nuke weapons'

United Nations (PTI): Former American Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said the Bush administration's continued support to President Pervez Musharraf is necessary to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists and fundamentalists.

He blamed the present American government for "contributing to the instability in Pakistan by not strongly supporting Musharraf".

Promoting his new book, "Surrender Is Not An Option", Bolton wanted the US to focus less on election and more on ensuring that al-Qaeda terrorists do not lay hands on nuclear weapons.

Expressing doubt that a civilian government in Pakistan could keep military under control or nuclear weapons out of the reach of terrorists and fundamentalists, Bolton said he was not defending Musharraf.

"But I am here to say that an appreciation of Pakistani history doesn't give much reason for confidence that a civilian leader can keep the military under control and keep the nuclear weapons secure," he said.

Bolton resigned as the US Ambassador to United Nations following stiff opposition from the members in Senate which was unlikely to confirm him to the post. He now works at a Washington-based conservative think tank, American Enterprise Institute.

Bolton said the highest strategic interest of the United States should be to ensure that weapons of mass destruction remain secure. He wants the United States to learn from the experience of enforcing elections in Palestinian territories that resulted in the victory of Hamas.

Too wordy to read. Can anyone kindly tell what the article's central theme is? Thanks.

"Who will break this quandary or how can Pakistan escape from this quandary is not clear yet."

When non-political elitists such as Roedad Khan etc stop behaving like rulers and the PEOPLE of Pakistan are allowed to decide for themselves.

Dear Dr. Gill -- disappointing article -- there is a disconnect in your column with the present horror in Pakistan.

If this "military government is illegal" then why not talk about that -- instead of devoting the almost entire article on 'vices' of democracy -- is this the time to talk about "Benazir and Nawaz SHarif had their chance twice and failed" -- in a pre 9/11 Pakistan.

Well -- the military dictators had their chance 4 times and they failed every time -- as this blasted martial law in 2007 would attest to it -- broadcasting the soiled image of the country to each and every corner of the world -- on a daily basis.

Can you imagine a country like nuclear Pakistan -- with no functioning Court system right now -- with its judges under house arrest -- its lawyers bludgeoned and bloodied thrown in jail -- and its criminals bombing around free?

Sorry to say your article is rather off the mark Gill sahib. "Baith kay masjid meiN voh kurtay hai maikhaanay ki baat".

Okay, I read the last line:

Who will break this quandary or how can Pakistan escape from this quandary is not clear yet.

Thing is, Pakistan cannot technically reverse this action and restore the constitution and everything hunky dory back again even if it wants and even if elections are held as Musharraf says. Reasons are as follows:

1) The constitution allows for declaration of 'emergency' by the President and suspension of some human rights in Articles 232/233, but it certainly does not allow for the entire constitution to be suspended and replaced with a 'Provisional Constitution Order' written by the Chief of Army Staff, which in effect is a new constitution or simply - Martial-Law - though Government has not termed it as such because the Parliaments stand which have always been correctly dissolved during the previous Martial-Laws.

However, the Government Advocate General as well as Dr. Sher Afgan, the Parliamentary Secretary, have accepted the action taken as extra constitutional, on television, which is accurate.

2) The action has been reaffirmed by the Parliament in its session, but then the Parliament itself is a constitutional body deriving its power from the constitution, and stands suspended alongwith the constitution. It cannot be so that the constitution is suspended while the parliaments and senate stand. The status of the parliamentarians is now no better than audience in an auditorium, and no act by them is constitutional or of any lawful validity in any future restoration of constitution.

3) If after an election the constitution is restored, the suspended higher judiciary will have to be reinstated and all the judges having taken oath under the PCO will have to be dismissed.

4) If the constitution and superior judiciary is reinstated, Article 6 will apply for subverting the constitution, which carries a minimum penalty of life imprisonment and a maximum of death. This article will not only apply to Musharraf, but also on all the sitting parliament members including the Prime Minister who have reaffirmed it, as well as the judges who have taken an oath under the PCO.

5) To avoid the implication of above Article 6, any parliament which is elected will require a 2/3rd majority (of the entire parliament strength and not only amongst the voting members) to amend the constitution to legitimize the action and nullify Article 6.

6) If above cannot be done, Musharraf will be at risk of hanging, or at a minimum, a life sentence. To avoid that possibility, he will need to leave the country for asylum. But that again will leave hundreds of parliament members and dozens of judges under the mandatory punishments of Article 6.

How many here think the above risks will be taken for an election and restoration of constitution? Is a 2/3rd parliamentary majority possible by Musharraf's allies PML (Q) plus MQM? Going by the latest indicator, Musharraf got a 56% majority in his Pres election, and that was before the Martial-Law. He'll need 67% after this mess.

Without going into the dynamics of the current PML (Q) and PPP war, where's he going to come up with a 67% majority? And then, there's Nawaz Sharif who cannot be kept away for long. His return will change the entire power equation and mean an end to PML (Q).

This is why I have no doubt that no elections will be held. The present assemblies' tenures will be extended by another year or more. The PCO will remain and so will Musharraf.

I.e. till the entire applecart is overturned by either a mass civil uprising which cannot be crushed (not likely), or a counter coup from within the army (fairly likely) or the Jihadis just inching forward and making the working of the federation impossible, resulting in anarchy (Very likely).

Sirjee, masadi sahib....where are those hidden social structures you have been alluding to in some of your other posts? While us morons can't hope to see that which is obviously in front of our noses...maybe you can demonstrate the right way as you have so graciously reminded us repeatedly is your (and the members of this "social structure") sovereign domain.

Sirjee...what is the right way? Please elaborate practical steps which are likely to take place rather than speak of building castles in the sky as is the case of so many of the idealists who keep speaking about democracy and institutions. We all read in our own dimwitted way what democracy is and I am sure you could certainly give us a lecture on democracy and the institutions that go with it...but what is actually practical in Pakistan in this next year?

Although I don't belong to one of those hidden social structures of which you are obviously a member, I have a few predictions of my own: Considering that the trouble making judges are now gone and the threat of the amnesty deal being reversed is now gone, Bibi will likely go around loud mouthing as she usually does garnering support from the west and whichever Pakistani fools are willing to follow her. This will likely be done with a wink and a nod between the Americans, Mushy's boys, and Bibi's rats. With all the ducks lined up, Bibi will sell out all those poor idealistic fools who believed that crap about democracy and make a deal with Mushy publicly...of course...the deal will likely have already been executed privately. In the end, what was planned a few months ago will take place; Mushy will be Prez while the Witch (Bibi) will be the PM.

A prediction for a little longer term: Everything will blow up in their faces in less than 24 months. Its just not possible for someone like the Witch (Bibi) to work with others....she tends to complain that everybody didn't move out of the way and didn't give her enough of a chance. We'll all be here still having the same discussion about democracy and institutions and nothing will change.

Oh...and my prediction about Short Cut Aziz is as follows:

Considering that Pakistan was one of the few countries in the world that was against the World Bank President automatically being an American, one had to wonder why Pakistan was one of 4-5 countries that took this stand. After all, Pakistan is an American sub-state so it shouldn't have dared uttered a peep in this regard. Well ladies and gentlemen, I think in taking this step Mr Shortcut has tipped his hand as to what he would like to do next.

I think that ShortCut will likely try to make the next round of selections after Robert Zoellick, whom Shortcut just met with by the way, completes his term. Of course, this means that he must have impeccable pro-American credentials...and what do you know...he really does....just gotta keep them up now. I guess this means that he's going to be in no mood to defy the American desire to see the witch take his place.

If you watch CNBC today you will notice the brat witch (Bibi) protesting and making statements and even being able to go to the judges colony. In a time when television is totally controlled by the state and we all know that no one is allowed to do this kind of thing without government approval, Bibi is out there convincing people that this display is not with government collusion. God...we Pakistanis are so friggin dumb...I think we deserve her!

Zyxius,

....she tends to complain that everybody didn't move out of the way and didn't give her enough of a chance.

It was the Karachi bomb and the 158 corpses of her workers delivered as a house-warming party gift. Do you think MQM/PML(Q) is going to hand Sindh to her on a plate?

Re: # 42
That was good!!!!
And yes the obvious could not have been more obvious than that!!!

jokers are wild

Re: # 43

zyxius,

...... as an avid fan of professional wrestling - colloquially known as noora kushti - i was able to spot this dramabazi from day zero (or jeero, as our horrible hindoo friends would say) .......

..... but don't loose heart yet because there is a wild card even though it too is a joker - nawaz sharif ! ... if he is pulled out of the deck, the game can take off in a new direction unless the general and the thieves of gujarat can really fix the elections ......

........ it is not over yet ...

p.s. on the other hand, abdul paki doesn't give a hoot and life is going on as usual unless they decide to block murree road again for a whole day .... the maid showed up on time this morning and as long as the neighbor is willing to share his dish antenna and people can watch this wrestling match, everyone is happy .......

Dr. Gill, again, totally lack of the topical most issue. You have not discussed the gagging of the media (you would not be in a quandary if Musharraf stays clear from thrashing the private media). Watching PTV it is sickening. Right now there is a weirdo by the name of Zaineb Ansari (from a Karachi based PR agency) emotionally telling us the merits of dictatorship. Maybe you would feel right at home sitting next to her.

The media is a pillar whose ultimate job is to keep the incumbent government in check. It is enshrined in our constituion. Mushrraf has to stay clear from attacking it.

Re:42

Very Good point.

I hope we Pakistanis can wake up and smell the Sabz Chai.

#41 Posted by Zyxius on November 10, 2007 4:57:56 am

the chances of shortcut filling in wolfowitz's shoes(or shah riza's for that matter) are ZERO...

any US administration that nominated a non-american would get raked over the coals on capitol hill.