Why the American War on Terror is Failing Miserably

Re: # 156

naqshbandi,

... i think that will be just fine - when mahmud gahzni II marches comes through rawalpindi on his way to conquer hindustan, i will join him like my grandpa gopinath joined his grandpappy ......... the only people who should worry are the horrible hindoos and virgin sheep ......

Re: # 160

tahmed,

....... i resent romair because he makes all us pakis look bad in front of these horrible hindoo hyenas (not that most of us are not capable of doing it ourselves) ....... and then he confuses the shite out of me ... first he says that he was in the airforce, now he turns around and tells us that one of his 'course mates' with the initials 'nh' is going to take over the army ..... i am confused - we need to do some research on this guy .......... you know anybody in the ms branch?

Re: # 162

Come to think of it I almost invited you out for drink bcos you were after gopinath's grandson!!!! I guess it will have to be Salim only.

giani

Re: # 162

Come to think of it I almost invited you out for drink bcos you were after gopinath's grandson!!!! I guess it will have to be Salim only.

giani

hamidm: You are just jealous of Romair because he is so well connected and so knowledgeable about military matters.

Naqshbandi:
Does that mean we are going to witness another killing of Tajiks, Uzbuks. Another closing of education on women. And last but not least balding for wearing shorts in football match by Pakistani team.
It looks like People have short memory span and long avenging span.
I don't think, Army rule or not, Pakistanis will accept to go back to stone age (even without American bombing).
A lot of Pakistanis have family abroad and they are much aware of development and its advantage.

bulleya#143
Don't be fooled by appearance.
Imran Khan is alternative to whatever first dispensation is for Army and America on paper. (I cannot speak on behalf of Allah). Unfortunately he is too different to accomodate within current or any political dispensation. And he has a big baggage of Sita Whites and their children. At best he can make happy a few people, but alienate a lot in the process. He is probably worse than BB in this regard. Moreover he has a Huqqa Party (party of five people) and apart from nuisance value to different parties or group, I am not much optimistic about him. Moreover apart from playing cricket (which he does no more) and womanizing (which is concealed), he has no brains but rhetorics (that is precisely the reason for him being alternative ).
Personally I think he might have a shot in 1999 when he was propped up by a certain group of PSEUDOISLAMIC PSEUDOREVOLUTANARIES in the Army as a face to fulfill their agenda.

#97 Posted by tahmed32
"On the bigger issue, I of course fully agree. The military in Pakistan has to be put in its place - it's job is to serve the Pakistani people, not rule over them. The central question is How?"

There can be many answers to that but sure most of them require strong will on the part of the Pakistani middleclass and others in the urban centers to understand that the army rule is not in Pakistan’s interest.

The first thing is for the politicians to take a stand and the politicians will only take that stand when they know that the people are steadfastly against the army rule.

Just look at Benazir. She almost signed a blank check but when she got to Pakistan the first thing she learned was that her own party workers will not support her association with the army. What no one reported from her Karachi procession that was bombed by the intelligence that most of the slogans during the procession were anti Musharaf and anti America. She quickly began to back away from her support to Musharaf. She is not in a position now to make a deal with the army because the public pressure has forced her to take a stand. She may not like it but she has to listen to her party workers. We can say that both BB and Nawaz at some point of time will make the deal with the army and the US but so far the public pressure has prevented them to make that deal. This certainly provides a ray of hope.

What I gather from Pakistan is that whole society at large is disgusted with the army shenanigans. Army can still keep the power because it has the guns. But the public pressure eventually will force the army to back off. We have seen the Junta rules in South America, they are all pretty much history now. Even the worst of the worst junta rule in Chile ended when people did not let up.

No doubt things are complicated in Pakistan. With the WOT, the US interests in the area and the oil politics in the region, things are not going to be easy but often a way is found in some very complicated situations. I think if Pakistanis are able to remove the current CAOS Musharaf, it is highly likely that next COAS will have to repeat the Chile of 1973 to get to the power. We saw Nawaz standing up to the army in 1999 and I feel that the next time the army may have to kill the PM in the PM house to get the power again. They may have to kill the Pakistani intelligentsia in the stadiums to maintain the forcible acquisition of power.

Asadi,Tahmed and other please read this report and especially see the maps that go with that.

http://www.senliscouncil.net/modules/publications/Afghanistan_on_the_br ink/documents/Afghanistan_on_the_brink

See the maps on page 7 and 25
The NATO plus solution is in the works and the report recommends:
Recommendation 1: “NATO Plus”: Double the NATO forces in the area, double the ground troops; Caveat-free, MOVE IN TO PAKISTAN” and this is the real game in which the stupid Generals are willing partners.

However, what's most intriguing is the Council's support for a very hawkish policy of the kind being pushed by the bipartisan politicians in the US Houses of Congress. The proposal is simple: given that there is no intention of withdrawing, a huge boost in troop commitment has to be demanded of all NATO members, and the war has to be expanded into Pakistan. The Taliban is known to operate across borders, and the Pakistani army is reluctant to engage in battle with them for a variety of reasons. Clearly, part of the US pressure on Musharraf is aimed at his inability to be a reliable puppet, while Benazir Bhutto's rhetoric about 'extremists' is clearly intended to capture that vital Washington constituency. There have already been cross-border attacks, but would Bhutto or any future Pakistani government permit the US to operate extensively in Pakistan? Would such actions hinder or boost the popular movement resisting Musharraf's dictatorship? The report doesn't ponder on such questions, or the obvious answers.

Perhaps most importantly, the report states that 'foreign fighters' from across what Brzezinski calls the "global Balkans" including Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Xinjiang, are acting as force-multipliers for the Taliban insurgency. How much of this is real information and how much is 'intelligence' obtained through torture, or straightforward propaganda? Unlike other parts of the report, which comprises some independent research, much of this appears to be distilled from think-tanks and Western newspapers. At any rate, though the report strikes a technocratic note, the context makes clear that the "Nato+" solution would constitute an aggressive strike to bring south Asia under US control. When both Obama and Clinton make noises about potential aggression in Pakistan, we have to take it as a warning sign. This war may send the whole region up in flames.

Re: # 169 HP
Gosh! you sound real worried. Being a Jeay sindh activist, shouldn't you be drooling at the prospect of the break up of Pakistan?

#160 Posted by tahmed32,

Romair is an amiable enough person who does not fly of the handle at the drop of a hat

Yeah tell me about it. After his misinformed rant based solely on organized character assassination of NS, he teaches me the definition of an idiot !!!

It may not be flying off the handle, but it is certainly akin to shoving up a broom handle and pretending to be a peacock (mor) !!!

HP #169 There is no doubt that there could be consequences of the current turmoil in Pakistan that neither the "oversmart" dictator nor anyone struggling for democracy could have foreseen. After all, history teaches us that civil wars and strife can lead to unexpected consequences. Thus: No doubt that fears of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into Al Qaeda hands (who could then use them to destroy entire cities, since destruction is all they are capable of) is a key western concern today, and it would be surprising if counter-measures are not being considered. Our friends in India would no doubt be jumping at the opportunity to join in any such action (and the Indian military has used this time to play "wargames" across the border).

So, if Jinnah made Pakistan, Musharraf and his desire for power may very well destroy Pakistan (i.e. nuclear weapons taken away, Pakistan reduced militarily with India then becoming the unchallenged military power in the region).

This sounds far-fetched, I know. But it is a very real possibility.

Tahmed sahib,

(and the Indian military has used this time to play "wargames" across the border).

How many times do I have to tell you this- Wargames are nothing but keep fit exercises, particularly relevant in India since our army does not get any by way of storming courts and climbing the gates of PM house.

Regards

majumdar #173 Yes, you mentioned that earlier. But please note that the timing of wargames is also considered significant - if they are undertaken during troubled times, then they are often seen as an indication of preparations for war.

I am not saying that the scenario indicated in #172 is certain by any means. But it could happen if Musharraf continues in his disastrous course of insisting on absolute power and the popular opposition to Musharraf refuses to accede to his demands - which could lead to all out civil war in Pakistan. In which case NATO forces to the west may very well team up with Indian forces to the east in order to prevent nuclear weapons falling into Al Qaeda hands.

Tahmed sahib,

(But please note that the timing of wargames is also considered significant)

Sadly I am not expert on military affairs having failed to graduate beyond Commando Comics but really we need to find out whether the current war games were a part of a long drawn scheudle of exercises or a sudden afterthought. Also I understand that neighbouring countries are informed well in advance.

(if they are undertaken during troubled times, then they are often seen as an indication of preparations for war. )

If that is the case what would be the casus belli? And how does the current trouble neutralise the Paki nukes?

Re: 172 I think it is very far fetched, I think the Pakis are getting too pessimistic. I am not understating the seriousness of the whole situation- without any doubt it is the worst since 1971, but pakistan is nowhere near a meltdown stage.

Regards

majumdar #175 If these wargames were timed without thought to the situation across the border, then as an Indian you should be very worried about what they were thinking.

On your question on "casus beli", I think I already described that earlier (i.e. western fears of Pakistan nuclear bombs falling into al qaeda hands in case of an all out civil war in Pakistan).

On your question on how the current trouble neutralizes nukes - I didnt say it "neutralizes" them. I am saying that under one possible scenario (i.e. all out civil war where the Pakistan Army itself is divided into pro- and anti-Musharraf groups), these bombs could fall into al qaeda hands. Of course, events would have to take a particular course for this "nightmare scenario" to arise - i.e. Musharraf continuing his disastrous course, the opposition taking more and more to the streets, soldiers refusing to kill any more demonstrators.

Of course one hopes that Musharraf will change from being "oversmart and overambitious" to just plain smart and realize his game is up. Or that the opposition is able to keep the demonstrations peaceful even as Musharraf's police continue to bloody their heads every time there is a demonstration. But if that doesnt happen, then this nightmare scenario becomes a possibility.