Why the American War on Terror is Failing Miserably

HP #92 That editorial was for Hamidm to consider, as you will note. Since he had been up in arms about maulvis being the problem (as Mush has been claiming), and this editorial indicates that Mush's game is up. And that to me is progress, since (as I have been pointing out to zeemax earlier), the mullahs are merely musharraf's bogeymen that he has used for job security.

On the bigger issue, I of course fully agree. The military in Pakistan has to be put in its place - it's job is to serve the Pakistani people, not rule over them. The central question is How?

To me there has never been a better time than now to do now.

majumdar #95: While nothing Musharraf's government says carries any weight, given how easily he reneges on what he has said. It does seem though that he cant really stay on as military chief - and to my mind the credit for this goes to the bold stand the Chief Justice took last year when he refused to accede to Musharraf's demands to give him the benefit of legal cover to remaining a President in uniform.

Once the wardi is gone, Mush's power is bound to unravel it seems. The bigger question of removing military interference from politics and returning power to the Pakistani people thus comes to the forefront (see my post to HP below).

Tahmed sahib,

Assuming of course that Mush steps down as COAS what happens next?

Does Kayani come in and say "Thank you, sir and Khuda Hafiz" as Yahya is alleged to have told Ayub and dismisses him as Prez as well

or do we have a troika again - Kayani, Mush and BB ruling over Pakistan as peons of the West

or a genuine democratic order with fresh elections chosing a new electoral college which elects the new Prez as well as PM.

Regards

Re: # 92, #99 #98

ineresting scenario is this - Mushy gives up uniform to become prez, Bibi as PM, Kayani as COAS a good troika and heirarchy. (Internally it might be different, and given the NSC's composition it will be so).
It would be interesting to see what happens on the NWFP/FATA fronts. Note, the army is not able to make the unpalatable decisions (decisions which on the surface appear to benefit the US (see#92)), but the civilian govt headed by Mush as Prez and BiBi as PM will make those decisions and hand them to Kayani who will implement them. The civilians will carry the can for a fiasco (killing pakistanis and/or not delivering) - the army will come out smelling of roses and we are back to square one.

On the other hand, the civilians might just take this opportunty and ensure that power does not slip from them again. Somehow, i doubt this will happen with this generation of leadership in Pakistan. We will have to wait for another before it happens (I call it the Manto generation for want of a better phrase).

Dash,

{The civilians will carry the can for a fiasco (killing pakistanis and/or not delivering) - the army will come out smelling of roses and we are back to square one.}

That is indeed very likely. If the kanjaroons succeed, Army gets all the credit, if they fail and concomittantly there are large civilian casualties, all the blame falls on the bloody civvies.

Having said that, the most likely outcome of the war in NWFP is a prolonged insurgency (like JK, NE India) without clear cut victories. And for that reason it is important that popular governance return so that the GoP can carry the whole nation along rather end up like 1971 fighting against its own people.

Regards

#99 majumdar/Dash_Dot: Who knows how this plays out. Two things seem certain:

First, the civil society in Pakistan, led by the lawyers, is not going to give Musarraf a comfortable dictatorship of the kind enjoyed by one of the middle east clowns (Mobarik, Gaddafi who is not just a dictator for life but is grooming his son, and Assad who inherited his dictatorship). And this is despite Musharraf's best efforts at destroying the civil society of Pakistan and promoting mullahism in its place (following the Mobarik Manual on Job Security for Dictators).
Second, Unless structural adjustments are made whereby no ambitious general can ever dream of overthrowing an elected government again in Pakistan, this struggle of the military vs the civil society of Pakistan will continue.

So, the big question is the one I had for HP in #97 - How does one ensure that the Pakistan military never overthrows the constitution in future?

Tahmed sahib,

(How does one ensure that the Pakistan military never overthrows the constitution in future?)

You may consider the Costa Rica model, it abolished the military simply to avoid military coup about 50 years back. Today it is the most prosperous and progressive nation in Mesoamerica. That too without any oil.

Regards

Re: # 101

Second, Unless structural adjustments are made whereby no ambitious general can ever dream of overthrowing an elected government again in Pakistan, this struggle of the military vs the civil society of Pakistan will continue.

So, the big question is the one I had for HP in #97 - How does one ensure that the Pakistan military never overthrows the constitution in future?

This will never happen with the current generation of pakistani leadership. You will have to wait for a few years befor this happens. The current generation are venal, vicious and extremely feudal. Venal and vicious are negative characteristics to have in a politician, but when combined with the thrid one you get a mess.

You also need to get over the hangover of martial races concept....and it is this and the lack of opportunty for the young man with no money/backing etc are two of the main causes.....in fact I would say the "lack of opportunty" is the main cause....

#104 DashDot: Your answer (i.e. condemning an entire generation of Pakistanis) gets an A for emotional satisfaction for someone raised on hate-Pakistan fodder, but gets an F for objective insight. :-)

majumdar #104 Costa Rica would be a great model if there were no external threats to Pakistan.

India, as you may know, has initiated wargames across the border - hardly a gesture designed to assure Pakistanis that they can let their guard down even as the country goes through internal struggles.

Tahmed sahib,

(if there were no external threats to Pakistan. )

You seriously believe that Injuns are crazy enuff to invade Pakistan and undo 1947???

(India, as you may know, has initiated wargames across the border)

I believe "war games" are NORMAL training exercises for NORMAL armies. Unlike your army our guys dont train by storming the Supreme Court or scaling the gates of PM House!!!

Regards

#107 majumdar: hey, i just report the news. :-) and the news is that the Indian military has initiated wargames across the border. This may not mean India will invade Pakistan (it cant hope to do that after nuclearization). But it also means Pakistan cannot afford to put its guard down with India like Costa Rica did.

Tahmed sahib,

(it cant hope to do that after nuclearization)

Exactly all that Pak needs is to maintain a small nuke army. The regular Pak army can do only one thing- conquer Pakistan every now and then.

Regards

#109 Majumdar: Agreed. With the nuclear deterrent, Pakistan can afford to have a smaller conventional army. That would be part of the answer to the question of eliminating future military interference in politics.

Re: # 105
That is not right....tell me Tahmed32 - even one person amongst the guys today who are in the same league as YLH.

Tell me one leader who has done something more positive for the country than they have done for themselves. (I am all for a pol doing good for themselves).

Tahmed32, you seem to be losing your objectivity here, by getting emotionally attached to the means rather than the goal. None of the present day leadership can deliver what you want....wait for the generation of Manto to come through - the younger generation from what I have seen (from my interaction with them) are more savvy, clued on, less of a navel gazers, and more of doers, and more confident of themselves and really know where they want to get to and are adept at getting the required tools to get there.

Till then, I say the army is the only saviour of pakistan. The rest will sell their souls for a few mansions in surrey and dubai!

Personally I dont think that it makes sense to be so paranoid about an Indian invasion. In this day and age, the idea of an invasion can only be entertained by the sole superpower who too has suffered as a result of these kinds of misadventures. So, I feel that there is absolutely no need to defend ourselves against India beyond our nuclear capabilities.

With so much of our budget going to the army, there is no way that we can advance ourselves so we should realize that the Indian threat is more of a locally concocted bogeyman than a reality. Besides, we Muslims (and I'm not talking Jihadis) have enough pull inside India to destabilize that country entirely and bring it to its knees so I doubt very much that India would ever attempt such a foolish thing regardless of Pakistan's difficulties. However, I think its best to leave that kind of adversarial thinking behind and focus on our real problems which are a true economic and political independence from the US and the western powers. We are not yet totally free and its not the Indians we need to worry about, its the Americans and our own situation.