A History of the Pakistan Army by Brian Cloughley

Re: # 202 FM 'Romair' Bulleya

"......i am surprised so many armies keep trying to do that, even if seeing disastrous results faced by soviets to americans to indians to what not.......the largest militaries in the world......"

You are completely wrong. 'Disastrous' results are not quite so disastrous, to begin with. Are the Americans or the Indians 'defeated'? Where? How the hell do you define defeat in these cases?

Not only are the results not disastrous, but insurgencies can be easily put down if the outside support that sustains them is cut off. If Taliban had no sustenance from Pakistan, they would be put down very easily in Afghanistan. It took a grand total of 30 days to evict them from power. Now they are reduced to occassional bombings and rocket attacks.

Romair,

# 202

Overall sound advice but

(after that it should withdraw from fata, to pakistan's provicial borders)

The catch is that no government can actually withdraw from a large part of its territory survive public uproar. Paki public opinion would never be impartial to FATA being bombed.

Nonetheless, it is true that Pak is an absolutely unprecedented situation. No country has at least in my memory ever faced a situation where a few districts have decided to launch a war on another country, let alone the world's largest military

This sentence caught my eye:

(pakistan is in a lose-lose situation)

Reminds me of an article you had written in your Field Marshall Romair avatar.

http://chowk.com/articles/5335

(India’s Potential Lose-Lose-Lose Scenario)

Seems just like the other day. Sigh, how time flies!!!

Regards

fuzair #: "So what do you recommend? The PA withdraw unilaterally from FATA.... the Americans will have little choice but to start launching large-scale cross-border raids...."

...pakistan iis in a lose-lose situation, both ways.......if it doesn't bomb fata, then the americans will bomb it.....if it does bomb fata, then people from fata will bomb pindi and karachi and what not......

....at the moment, some of both is happening, as pakistan doesn't know which way to go......everyone is bombing everyone, somewhat.......

.......the solution is what i have been suggesting......it is impossible for an army to go into a region and sweep out militancy, if the local population supports it......i am surprised so many armies keep trying to do that, even if seeing disastrous results faced by soviets to americans to indians to what not.......the largest militaries in the world......

......so pakistan cannot win in fata.......

it also cannot take on nato, if nato starts bombing fata......

so what can it do......it can simply tell those in fata that if they are going to declare their own foreign policy and start attacking nato in afghanistan, against the wishes of pakistan, then fata is on its own.......it shouldn't come back to pakistan for protection, if the americans bomb it......

after that it should withdraw from fata, to pakistan's provicial borders, and let americans and fata fight it out on their own........after all, that is what both of them want to do.......

so the way to go is neither bomb fata, nor defend it (if it wants to fight nato in afghanistan).......the main aim of the pakistan govt. should be stop terrorism in pakistan......not to participate in gwot or support its renedage regions who want to fight wars in other countries.......

#200 by zeemax

Will do it Zee bhai. Thanks!

#199 Posted by harish_hyd,

Pavo had written a detailed account of Kargil in his iLogs. Do search for it.

#186 by pavocavalry

It is stated by some airforce guys that Paki Air Chief P.Q Mehdi took the stand with Musharraf that he would not commit the airforce as Musharraf wanted since this could trigger an open war with India.

Agha Sahib, this is exactly the same thing I heard but thought you'd be the better person to clarify on it, that's why I remained silent in my last post. I also read that Musharraf hadn't kept the AF and Navy chiefs informed about the operation and they were mighty pissed off with him. Is that true?

Pavocavalry:

"why India and Pakistan have such large armies"

If India and Pakistan were one country, they would have had an even bigger army than the two combined. Today India aspires to hegemony in South Asia alone and Pakistan resists it. A united India would seek hegemony over entire Indian ocean arc from Gulf to South East Asia and would work to counter China as the dominant voice of the continent. We humans make our own ambitions.

WRT Cabinet Mission Plan, a country woith a weak centre and a complete lack of homogenous chrachteristics (be they religious, ethnic or linguistic) would have been a Yugoslavia in the making. Hence, a clean partition was preferable to that. Relative minor amount of ethnic cleansing led to a clean break.

#195 Posted by zeemax:

"GT Bhai, I'm doing my bit."

Good luck! (Hats off ikaaan)

Even though I'm not a card carrying follower of Dr. Israr (or any other religious scholar for that matter), there's something he says which is the bitter truth:

"Yeh jo Iqtidar hota hai, yeh dawat wawat ko naheen maana karta. Iss key liye taqat ka istimaal karna parhta hai!"

#194 Posted by GT,

GT Bhai, I'm doing my bit. Now don't ask me how.

#193 Posted by zeemax:

Zee:

".... which PA/USA will not allow ..."

So? You won't take to the streets? And you want the Taliban to do the fighting for you?

#192 Posted by GT,

GT, the only way peaceful way out is restoration of the previous judiciary, which I doubt will be accomplished through non-violent means. Restoration will mean an end to the troika, which PA/USA will not allow unless forced. I suppose you're missing the external factors here.

A post from CC is reproduced which may be relevant here, even though a tad optimistic:

"Well ... these elections - even if held - will be no more than temporary to just unseat musharraf through a 2/3rd parliamentary majority coalition between PPP/PML (N) if these are held fair, and by street agitation if there's rigging.

In any event, there will be fresh elections as soon as musharraf is removed or voluntarily steps down. Then ALL of Imran, Nawaz, and others will participate.

So, briefly, there is still much to hope for."

It means above that conflict is inevitable. I hope it doesn't get too violent.

#191 Posted by zeemax:

"The lawyers/students' movement can't even get their leaders Aitezaz and CJ out of house-arrest - let alone unseat army rule."

1. So join it and give it more strength. Mobilize .... get off chowk. Or are you scared? Do you think you are worthless?

2. The movement has to be patient. There is no quick fix. The process of the movement is much more important than getting rid of the dictator or getting the CJ back. The movement has the potential of gaining the respect of the Taliban and other international players. It is the only way out. Do not wait in the sidelines and see your country disintegrate.

#190 Posted by GT,

To me, the only way out is to strengthen the lawyers/students' movement.

Bhai kis dunya mein rehtey ho? Wake up. The lawyers/students' movement can't even get their leaders Aitezaz and CJ out of house-arrest - let alone unseat army rule.

Pavo sahib,

These are matters much beyond my ken. However, from the little that I understand from reading chowk, it seems to me that with the present set-up nothing can be done one way or the other. A very dangerous game is being played. China and Russia will be happy to see the US come in and get bogged down. Iran too would love to see this happen (today's launch was a direct challenge). The Taliban want nothing less with full confidence in ultimate victory in this world or the next. The Pakistani elites too want the US to come in and clear the mess, their confidence rests on hellfires and the invincibility of the US. It seems that one of the only two parties reluctant to this arrangement is the US. Their economy is not as strong, public opinion is a bit more wary and the armament industry is piled high with inventories - making it difficult for it to bail out the economy this time around. It seems that the US has to wait and do with "once in a while surgical strike". The Pakistani Army elites also do not want the US to come in now. They would like the status-quo to continue. More money has to be made before relocating to Europe or the US. These guys are indeed brave and foolish and genuine blue-blooded aristocrats completely immune to the welfare of commoners.

The common Pakistani is and will bear the brunt as this war of attrition continues. Unfortunately, a war with India to deviate attention is also not feasible. To me, the only way out is to strengthen the lawyers/students' movement. I know that people like you, zeemax etc. believe in martial revolutions and look down on "civilian" "agitations". But, this seems to be the only way out. Why don't you join the movement?

Major Sahib,

So what do you recommend? The PA withdraw unilaterally from FATA? Sign another peace treaty with the Taliban? The only possible solution is a military one that the Army is apparently unwilling or incapable of implementing. I am reasonably certain that if the PA withdraws from FATA and Swat, the Americans will have little choice but to start launching large-scale cross-border raids; which is apparently what they should have done five years ago.

You still haven't answered my earlier question: how would Gen. Iftikhar Janjua have handled this? Called a jirga and bantofied Korans and development funds? Banned cable TV and called for Sharia? Or just stuck his head in the sand? And you know what that leaves exposed....