Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis

#326 theres a huge diff bet owning & holding patents
im curious abt ur opposition 2 patents - care 2 elaborate?

Re: # 342

Ladies and Gentlemen - Presenting for your viewing pleasure: Bulleya, the Bimbo... Ha ha...

pavocavalry: I read your "5 minutes over Islamabad" and found that you ignore some basic facts (e.g. Pakistani nuclear capacity is not as fragile as Saddam's that it can be taken out with one strike). And you make too many incorrect assertions.

you write: "Thanks to USSR help many South Asian countries as well as African countries fought and won wars of liberation !"
Name one such country! On the other hand, the central asian states, the baltic states, the east european states - having experienced USSR the way USSR lovers like you obviously never did - are testimony to the brutal and corrupt USSR regime that the US successfully fought and won against.

You write: "The Arabs were able to confront Israel only because of Soviet aid till the collaborator Sadaat sold his soul to the USA and Israel !"

FYI, the "collaborator" Saadat is the only Arab leader who actually beat the Israelis and saved arabs from the ridicule that was rightly heaped on them by the world after 1967 when their Big Man Nasser and the rest of the arab rulers were shown to be a paper tigers. And so, another generation of palestinians was doomed to live as refugees, thanks to the work of individuals like you who considered the only man among arabs in a long time to be a "collaborator"!!

Re: # 341 HP

"The easy tactics for the US is to get another general and work with him."

I do not think that fouj in pak is a one man show any more. Since 1990, I think, it has been restructuring itself on a corporate model. The impetus for this restructuring was the US economic embargo after Zia's death on the basis of Pressler Ammendment and subsequently the process was acclerated exponentially after the nuclear tests. That is when they fouj started investing in industry, trade and banking. In the new model the Corp Commanders act as the board of directors of any corporate entity. There is a president of the board who also happen to be the CEO. After the coup against Musharaf in Novemeber army has entered a new phase of its corporate structure - in which they have a civilain president of the country to deal with the politicians, while having no authority over fouj.

So the point is that that napak fouj does not act on the whims of one m/f general anymore. A corporate structure dictates its over all policy.

There is one way now that US may be able pressurize the whole corp commander corporate boardroom, and that is by freezing all the foreign assets of all Pakistani generals, impose restrictions on their flying out of the country and open up money laundering charges against the family members of generals living in West. That will be the first real combat challenge that Na Pak fouj will ever face in the post 1947 phase of its existence. Anything before that was just a fukking game for them.

anil #339: "Term bania also means, never to give on your ideas, and never to improve it from what others say."

....i am, actually, starting to enjoy my new found good looks status in south india....and am, thus, starting to lose interest in business interests....i knew there was some place in the world, where my looks would be appreciated.....

....is it better to be shahrukh khan or narayan murthy?......that is the million dollar question....

Urstruly,
"A surgical nuclear strike is launched on Kahuta and Islamabad !" AH AMIN

The whole thesis falls flat on its face when the author believes that the US could possibly launch a nuclear strike on Islamabad or Kahuta. The nuke assests are not in Islamabad and surgical nuke strike on a populated area would not only meet internal opposition within the US admin and politicians but would also be opposed by the many other countries including India, China and Russia. The US is unable to pull that hoax over Iran despite many threats.

The US was able to tame the Iraq army after ten years of bombing and a gut sapping blockade. The Pak army is better equipped and there is a strong likelihood that US will not be able to create sustainable sanctions against Pakistan.

The US will not attempt a conventional war in Pakistan. Their best hope is to work with the army.Since the Generals and the whole Pak army apparatus is tied with the US and the pentagon, the US will be successful in achieving its goals thru the Pak army but the process would be drawn out.

The easy tactics for the US is to get another general and work with him.

Re: # 335 Pavocavlary

Your thesis of "5 min over Islamabad" is plausible but not likely for the following reasons:

1. Nuclear assets are the one and only leverage that military Junta has against US and European aggression.

2. No matter how surgical the strike is, it can only destroy the production infrastruscture but not what has already been made. probably some of it but not all.

3. After invasion of Iraq the war paradigm has changed. For non superpower countries, now it is not the regular armies but the people and the so called "non-state actors" that defend the territory and country.

4. "5 minute over islamabad" will cause massive defection and mutiny in pak armed forces. The NATO troops are stretched thin in Afghanistan. They cannot or will not be able to handle the exponantial surge in the number of non state actors recruited from the Pakistani heartland.

5. The aggression on Pakistan will prompt regional actors like Iran, China, Russia, and India to re-evaluate their posture vis a vis US in Afghanistan. Whether one accepts it or not but an undeniable truth is that Pakistan has become the new buffer state between US aggression and all other regional actors.

6. An aggression on Pakistan will be the end of US political clout over Pakistan for good. Even now, the US endorsement of any Pakistani politician our fouji is a kiss of death for them. Imagine what will people do to the collaborators and their families after a strike.

So logically "a 5 min over islamabad" seems unlikely. But truth of the matter is that we are not dealing with people who have logic or common sense. We are dealing with American Christian religios nuts who belive that if they create murder and mayhem in this region Jesus Christ (pbuh) will one day emerge from heavens and come to congratulate them.

So even for collaborators, for the safety of their own behinds it would be prudent, that Pakistan must keep an option of a credible nuclear strike-back if attacked. This fact must be sold to the rest of the world in an undoubted clear cut manner. As a second tier of strategical option Pakistan should promise to deliver nukes to the non-state actors if attacked.

Re: # 336

Romair:

Term bania also means, never to give on your ideas, and never to improve it from what others say.

#335 Posted by pavocavalry
"5 Minutes over Islamabad"

Would you be willing to discuss, defend your thesis, if I raise issues and ask for related information that can support your thesis? Let us try and make it work!

dost-mittar #: "Looks like even when you are fighting an existentialist struggle, you refuse to give up your dreams of a greater Pakistan including all of Punjab and Kashmnir.;) "

.....in the big scheme of things, all of us will be dead one day......and in the big scheme of things, in my opinion, pakistan and india are temporary entities.....which do not match up to the historical balance of south asia......and will disappear...

so in a hundred years or so, south asia will be back to its independent cultural boundaries - south india, north india, punjab and afghanistan, with south and north india further divided along cultural lines.....

this is how it has been in 4800 out of its 5000 year history.....

in fact the only time south asia has been one united entity was when ruled by religions other than hinduism - bhuddists under ashoka, mulsims under aurangzed, christians under england......

so i don't know whether eastern kashmir and punjab will ever join pakistan, but they will join western kashmir and punjab one day, in one form or another.......

anil #: "You will be a very successful entreprenuer. This is the first principle of entreprenuership. You have it Romair, let Hamidm Sahib & Co. say whatever they want...."

...this is another area, i am afraid, in which pakistanis cannot compete with indians....specifically south indians......hence i am close to giving up my dream on this one......

south indians have a built-in calculator, i am convinced....i regularly sit down and discuss project opportunities, with them, nowdays......i give all my ideas and what not, based on my, "experience in the west".....

then some south indian guy gets up, in an unironed pale yellow shirt, crumpled pants and tennis shoes, speaking in broken hindi and english, and makes two or three points, which bring my complete proposal to zero.....

indians, specially south indians, are experts at calculating deals in their heads....they know exactly how much each deal, each employee and each item is worth......perhaps that is where the term baniya comes from....

something us pakistanis will never be able to master, i am afraid.....

5 Minutes over Islamabad



A.H Amin



There appears to be a strong evolving consensus in the USA as well as its NATO allies that Pakistan is the centre of gravity of the Islamists in the ongoing so called war on terror.This idea gained currency in various high US policy making circles as well as think tanks around 1987-89 and then assumed a solid shape in the decade 1990-2000.After 2001 it was adopted as a policy and concrete albeit top secret planning was started to deal with Pakistan which at the ulterior level was seen as part of the problem rather than a solution.



When the Spaniards landed in Mexico their main collaborators were indigenous Mexicans themselves ! In Pakistan thus the USA made use of indigenous collaborators ! Generals whose sons had a US passport ! Bankers who were US nationals but also dual Pakistani citizens ! Thus these leaders justified collaboration with the USA after 9/11 on the grounds that what they did was the only guarantee for the survival of Pakistan !



The Pakistani military junta in 2001 was isolated internationally so it was very easy for the USA to overawe it with one telephone call ! The typical career army officers life consists of aiming to get a good annual report from his boss ! Pakistan's military leadership grasped this opportunity to get a good pat from their geopolitical strategic boss the US president and with open hands provided airbases and all logistic support to the USA ! This was a short term measure so that Pakistani military junta's survival in power was ensured ! It had no connection with survival of Pakistan as a state ! Compare how Iran is surviving as a state despite defying the USA since 1979 ! Later on a fiction that USA threatened Pakistan with bombing it to the stone age was invented ! Thus irresolution was rationalized as supreme strategic brilliance ! Ironically some so called media men who are also running private businesses were in the forefront in praising this strategic timidity as strategic brilliance !



What happened in " Real Strategic Terms" was that with Pakistani military junta's active collaboration i.e logistic support and air bases the USA was able to occupy Afghanistan very cheaply and with minimum casualties ! This was no mean strategic achievement as it placed the USA right below the soft underbelly of China as well as Russia ! More significantly it reduced the flying as well as striking time to the Pakistani nuclear as well as missile installation.Close proximity to Pakistan also enabled the USA to conduct intelligence operations inside Pakistan in a far more optimum manner than ever before.



It was theorized in secret sessions of the highest level US decision making circles that although the Islamists fighting the USA had no fixed centre of gravity which could be attacked and eliminated, Pakistan with its sympathetic pro Islamist populace and nuclear and missile assets was at least a provisional centre of gravity of the Islamists.Note that US feared , not the ISI , not the tinpot Pakistani military junta , but the sentiments of the vast bulk of the Pakistani populace and its arsenal of nuclear warheads and missiles !



Thus Afghanistan was seen as a potential US base to carry out a 5 minutes over Islamabad or Kahuta just like the Israelis with US cooperation destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 5 minutes over Baghdad in 1981.



In 1945 the USA had bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki not for any direct military purpose but to overawe the USSR that no one could match US military might.The USSR had faced the challenge and developed a fine nuclear arsenal to counter US aspirations to control the world.Later China also emerged as another challenger of USA ! Thanks to USSR help many South Asian countries as well as African countries fought and won wars of liberation ! The Arabs were able to confront Israel only because of Soviet aid till the collaborator Sadaat sold his soul to the USA and Israel !



The USA was all set to reduce Pakistan to size in 1977 when it financed the anti Bhutto agitation in 1977 ! This plan was delayed because of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 till 1989 when the USA had but no option other than using Pakistan as a base for assisting the anti Soviet War in Afghanistan.



Change of posture came very quickly when after 1990 the USA started talking that Pakistan is a terrorist state or was on the brink of being a terrorist state.This was basically a war of nerves the decisive point of which was one telephone call which made Pakistan's tinpot military junta take the so called " brilliant strategic decision" of collaborating with the USA !



After the disintegration of the USSR , strategically speaking the US military targets were the littoral states of the Indian Ocean .Thus the Iraq War of 1990 , the Invasion and capture of Iraq of 2003 and the invasion of capture of Afghanistan in 2001.



Interestingly Iraq and Afghanistan were not ultimate objectives of US onslaught but merely initial bridgeheads.This was only Phase One ! Phase Two may include Pakistan and Phase Three may include Iran ! Phase Four being Chinese Singkiang and/or Central Asian Republics ! Somewhere the Americans call it Orange Revolution whose first good example was the anti Bhutto agitation that they financed in 1977 in Pakistan ! Sometimes they call it a war on terror or war against weapons of mass destruction !



History has proved that generals fail as statesmen ! In 1936 all of Hitlers generals opposed his decision to march into Rhineland ! This is so because generals think only in tangible terms ! They do not appreciate the value of intangible factors like resolution etc ! Thus after 9/11 when Pakistan's tinpot junta wargamed being invaded by USA it only thought in military terms ! It failed to appreciate that the USA was humbled in Vietnam and in Iran in 1979 ! In the process they allowed and facilitated the USA to occupy Afghanistan in very cheap military terms ! Pakistan shall pay a heavy price for this ! Whether Armitage said it or not , the USA will bomb some parts of Pakistan to the stone age in order to denuclearize Pakistan.



Pakistan is in a strange strategic situation ! It is led by a military dictator whose sole aim is to stay in power ! Its number two the so called prime minister is a US citizen and in case he dies naturally or unnaturally his successor i.e the Chairman Senate is also a US citizen ! So politically the USA is dominant in Pakistan ! But this does not make the Americans happy ! Their aim is denuclearization and complete submission of Pakistan !



Imagine the following scenario ! Pakistan's military dictator is killed in a mysterious air crash or assassinated by a common soldier on duty like Indita Gandhi ! The USA immediately issues an ultimatum that it fears that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal may fall in the hands of extremists ! A surgical nuclear strike is launched on Kahuta and Islamabad !Another general takes over power in Pakistan and capitulates to all US demands dismantling the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and its missiles ! Rationalising this on the ground that if he did not do so the USA would bomb Pakistan to stone age ! In next ten years Pakistan is Balkanised with an independent US supported Baluchistan and an independent puppet Pashtun state in NWFP and Northern Pashtun majority districts of Baluchistan ! An independent Sindh in the South , an independent Kashmir and Northern Areas with US bases for future operations against Singkiang on the Deosai Plateau and only Punjab left as Pakistan ! No nukes , no missiles , no resolve ! Just like the Christians reduced the Muslims to Granada in Spain and finally eliminated even Granada in 1492.



This is not a pessimistic view of things but a hard strategic reality ! The writing is clear on the wall ! The war which USA is fighting is not against the Pashtun tribes of Waziristan but against all Muslims ! Bagram , Khost,Jalalabad and Kandahar airfields are being developed not against the Taliban or against the Al Qaeda but for 5 minutes over Islamabad !



In strategy everything moves very slowly and it is the greatness of a statesman and military commander to assess what will happen in next 5 or ten years ! Here in Pakistan we have a situation where our military leaders are overawed by just one phone call ! From leaders of such a caliber little resolution or strategic insight can be expected !



From 1979 to 1988 Pakistan's military junta after seizing power through the backdoor , provided the USA with an active base to destabilize and destroy Afghanistan's defacto government . All infrastructure of Afghanistan was destroyed as well as all its institutions between 1979 and 1992 .Now if the Afghan state allows the USA to do so it should not be a surprise ! And why did Pakistan's military junta of 1977-88 support the so called Afghan Jihad ! So that General Zia stays in power ! The characters were different in 1979 and 2001 , but the motivation was the same !



Someone may skeptically view the above presented scenario ! The following arguments support the presented scenario ! If Saddam was destroyed on the mere suspicion that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction why is Pakistan not a perfectly legitimate target for USA , because it is a Muslim country and posseses WMD without any doubt ! Saddam was more secular than any Muslim leader in modern history yet his country and he himself were targeted and destroyed ! What is the aim of this so called enlightened Islam espoused by Musharraf ! To act as anesthesia for USA and destroy all resistance power of the Pakistani nation ! If not strategic brilliance at least we have good anesthetists at the top ! In war surprise is the key so the USA will not politely announce its intentions before it reduces Pakistan to size ! Musharraf , Benazir and any other general that may emerge are merely pawns in the game which can be removed by air crashes or assassinations ! Waziristan , Al Qaeda and terrorism are merely hollow slogans ! The Pakistan Army is being forced into Waziristan by the USA not to attack the Al Qaeda but to create an internal divide in Pakistan ! There have been many cases of desertion of soldiers in units in Waziristan as well as cases of refusal of officers for carrying out duties seen as against their conscience ! What kind of liberalism does Musharraf want us to practice when the enemy is at the gates and even inside the Pakistani citadel of power ! What can be expected from leaders whose sons are US citizens or who consider USA safer for their families to live than Pakistan ! What can be expected from US citizens now enjoying high political office in Pakistan after having a good time in Bank of America or CITI Bank ! What respect will the army jawans have for leaders more distinguished for deciding not to fight a battle after one telephone call or more interested in privatizing the PSO , PTCL or the Steel Mill !



5 Minutes over Islamabad is a distinct possibility ! This is the irony of a nation who supplied many pilots who were blood brothers of Syrian,Iraqis and Jordanians in downing many Israeli aircrafts over Golan , Amman and Iraq ! Today the Pakistani leaders are practicing sycophancy with Israel to gain a good pat from USA !



The conclusion is that Pakistan is led by collaborators who will go to any extent to survive while its nuclear and military assets would be destroyed with partial or active cooperation of its own leaders ! Fear made men believe in the worst but here in Pakistan we have a scenario in which Pakistan's leaders are trying to sell the idea that timid strategic collaboration is strategic brilliance ! A secret clause of Vision 2030 propaganda of Pakistani sitting leadership is that by 2030 Pakistan would be a Balkanised state with no nuclear and missile assets and kicked by all its neighbours ! Good luck to vision 2030 !

Then the Bhagwan Dases of North India and Masanamuthus of Tamil Nadu can go back to having sex with farm animals.


ROFL..

Folks don't take offence at harimau. he adds comedy value to the discussion board. I just pity his situation. From being the ones who dictated rules, people of his mindset are reduced to objects of ridicule. So he's venting out his anger. Let him do it.

Kulharee writes "Masadi, an African American has a hope of becoming the President of the US while your cocksucking brothers are busy killing one another"

Actually black on black violence in the inner cities is very high, and the AA who can "hope" for becomming president just like you can "hope" to make a reasonable argument must make sure that i) he is of lighter complexion than the rest of his group, as is the case with Obama and was the case with Powell ii) is part of the establishment meaning he wont do anything cukoo like get real civil rights for the people and iii) even when he fulfils 1 and ii white racism will pick on him with racial slurs, even America's first black president Bill Clinton is not immune from using racial slurs when a black approaches a prominent position.....it's in their blood this racism due to a well matured social structure, on the other hand the "cocksuckers" as you describe them, kill each other mainly as a result of conflict started by outsiders, Iraq is a prime example, Palestine is another, the Iran/Iraq war was another and the mini civil war in Pakistan is also a case of the same outsiders.... now go ___ yourself, idiot.

"This is typical grapes are sour comment. Most of the innovation in last 50 years are contribution of USA. If they are dumbo's then who are intelligent? USA is the country, where largest number of people go to study"

Show me anybody, in the US, who is half as intelligent as Bin Laden;)

Re: # 313
BTW I thought you never belonged to the category, which requires the dumbos, read US, to appreciate. I have been working with those clay heads for several years now. I know how good the average US guy perceives anything. I have a fair idea of their problem solving skills, integrity level etc...

Ans:
This is typical grapes are sour comment. Most of the innovation in last 50 years are contribution of USA. If they are dumbo's then who are intelligent? USA is the country, where largest number of people go to study.