Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis

Dear author,

On the subject of actors involved, you have not mentioned the role of Saudi Arabia and their concerns with regards to Shia influence that could destabilize their eastern borders.

Saudis have plenty of stake in Pakistan their natural ally and this friendship has extended itself well into Afghanistan where both partners find common interest in containing Persian influence and at teh same time maintain their political hegemony.

9/11 was a decisive moment in history of warfare. It saw the triumph of non state actors over state actors. The US mainland which was never attacked in two world wars and throughout the Cold War was successfully attacked.


Let me get this straight...the US gave the hijackers visas..they used the lax security at US airports, just snuck up on planes with knives and flew the planes into buildings...

and this is a triumph or an unparalleled military feat how?

The next time muzzies pull this kind of cr@p, the american people will be open to mass internments of muslims and deporting those who are not citizens...if that hasn't happened so far, then it's because of certain values American people believe in...you pull shit like 9/11 again and that will surely change...then we'll see how you achieve "unparalleled military feats" from internment camps...

#8 Posted by pavocavalry on January 25, 2008 6:34:27 am


Re: # 2 once the US troops enter pakistan the paki generals will lose all credibility .


seriously...the paki generals who told the paki junta that there were no paki troops in kargil HAD any credibility? or perhaps the paki junta is self-deluded if they believed that..

Pavo, like any army officer would, believes that the Pak army has lots of credibility! The institution has no credibility that escapes his attention.

He is implying that the army Generals are credible as long as the US army is not in Pakistan. Like a typical amry officer, he thinks that whatever the generals have done so far to the country has no bearing on their credibility. The looting of the country, the killings of the politicians, the destruction of the constitution, and other illegal acts like attacks of supreme courts have no bearing whatsoever on the credibility of the army Generals.

Clearly the problem is with the whole institution that breeds officers who are completely oblivious of the realities on the ground. They live in a cocoon where the world is all about the Pak army. He thinks, just a few army Generals are bad and if they are replaced with some god fearing generals everything will be honky dory in Pakistan.
The years of non sense that is injected into their heads makes them completely incapable of thinking of the people, and the country.

The officers are about six percent of the whole army and can be replaced easily without impacting anything as the only skill Pakistan officers have: invade the country.

We should hire some college graduates trained them afresh, find some rtd generals for the interim and move the Pakistan army HQTRS to Multan. No army in Islamabad and Pindi and soon we will see dramatic effects on Pakistani politics.The other option is to move the Pakistan capital to Multan and destroy the cantonment in that city!

Re: # 36 HP

Your thesis is correct. NaPak fouj is the most hated institution in the country right now. The Generals and their civilian underlings are more hated than the Americans I would say.

I fully agree with your thesis on replacing the so called "officer cadre", however, my inclination is towards disbandment of this lawless and corrupt entity altogether. I suggest a people's army instead. The experiment of Pasdaran-e-Inqilab in Iran has been quite successful over the past 30 odd years; don't forget that they fought one of the bloddiest war in the post WWII era for 10 years. Which proves that in modern times "a trained military officer" has no value add to any army.

Urstruly,
I am not concerned with the cadre. I think they are all poor folks and depriving them of the livelihood is not a good idea!

For the officers: after doing what they have done to the country, they deserve to beg on the streets along with their wives and kids so they learn humility and get to know the country! To make them Ibrat ki Tasveer, I would say they should only be allowed to beg on Traffic stops and railway stations!

There is no need for the Volunteer army, we should only have draft and the poor folks( Cadre) that are working in the army now, are not replaced as they retire!

#37 Posted by Urstruly on January 25, 2008 10:44:14 am

Do you remember the article you wrote for chowk a few years ago?

Lots of bravado..lot of talk of holding India hostage to deter a US attack on pureland...you clearly didn't see the most obvious outcome..the US making a female dog out of the paki military establishment..

http://www.chowk.com/articles/6078

Survival of the Fittest
Urstruly April 23, 2003

This is what urstruly was saying in 2003...that was before the land of the pure went into a civil war and bunch of pakis got whacked...that was before the US regularly send hellfires to send paki jihadis to hell...on paki soil..


how's the whole "threaten india to keep pakiland from being made into a female dog" thing working out for you?


The New Doctrine of Deterrence

The strategic plan that I put forward is based on the doctrine, which can be summarized in one phrase i.e. "India Defends Pakistan". This doctrine can further be explained in the following words.

If there is a credible, overwhelming and persistent threat to Indian integrity, defense, and economic interests, from Pakistan- in case a third party (in this case, US) threatens the security of Pakistan - India will act as a deterrent in a bid to defend both; and thus Pakistan can avert an aggression.


The Second Line of Defense – Military Preparations

There are five tiers of military defense that Pakistan should start establishing at this time:

Tier 1 Defense: The first tier of defense is the armed forces of Pakistan themselves. I hope that an internal review of lessons learned from the latest Afghan and Iraq wars has already begun. Our first objective in order to create a viable deterrence, as discussed above, was stated as " India must buy the idea that the aggression on Pakistan, by anyone, will have formidable and dire consequences for India." In order to create such a deterrent Pakistan must improve its missile system, and strengthen its air defense. Almost all Indian industrial cities must be with in the range of these missiles. Pakistan Air force must be capable of inflicting irreparable damage to the Indian infrastructure and economics. New bilateral defense agreements and treaties must be signed with China, France, Germany, and Russia. With in next two years Pakistan must also conduct nuclear tests and develop tactical devices

HP:

You state,

"A strategic analysis ......, is not jotting down recorded events without providing any analysis of the pro and cons of the events and the policy decisions."

I disagree. Describing the complexity of a problem and even noting pertinent questions can by itself be an achivement. After that, narrowing down the problem with acceptable assumptions so that "pros and cons" can be coherently discussed is desirable.

I feel that you have been a bit harsh on pavo .... actually very harsh. I think it is because of a few initial interacts.

Re: # 39

Thank you. Don't you see that consequences for not preparing itself as recommended in my article have proven to be prophetic. It was all common sense. Unfortunately I cannot say "told you so...". But dispite all that situation is not all that hopeless. Thank heavens that Musharraf the Dog has become a liability for every party involved in the debacle. he is a liability for fouj, for americasn, for people, and world community at large. Just as as this dog is sacked, fouj is bound to change some extreme changes in the way it operates in Pakistan.

#41 Posted by GT
"I feel that you have been a bit harsh on pavo .... actually very harsh. I think it is because of a few initial interacts."

GT, I don't know if I had been harsh enough! Pavo represents a pov which is army centric and when it is not army centric, he is promoting jihad and encouraging the bands of criminal that roam the tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan!

He takes a typical jihadi supporter line and thats why he inspires Zeemax. ( Zeemax has caught the jihad bug temporarily, he will get out of that soon).

I know you show a genuine interest to learn and I appreciate that. However, your knowledge of the intellectual trends in Pakistan is limited and it is hard for you to spot where a certain writer is coming from.

These guys were strictly pro US, pro Pak army as long as the jihad was on in Afghanistan. In the new situation, after 9-11, their kaaba has moved too. Now they are anti US, partially anti Pak army( just to the extent of opposing the Generals but waiting for the God fearing general to come along and fix the army so it is back to what it was under Zia!)

Who are these guys? They are the former Jihadi from inside the Pak army who still follow the jihad line and are a constant threat to the country. Since Pakistanis are not supporting their political line, they are now anti-Pakistan too. But once a God fearing general takes over, they would be back on the army side to raise the Islamic Jhanda!

The biggest crime for them was committed by Musharaf when he turned against the taliban after 9-11. You can see that in Pavo's writings on this site and elsewhere!

They are promoting a line that will destroy Pakistan to create a Islamic homeland for the criminals in the tribal areas.

So I am really not harsh enough!

HP,

HP, C'mon, now you shouldn't have called Pavo a lowly major. The guy obviously knows many things which we don't. Still he tried to continue but you kept ridiculing him. Admit it.

That's conduct unbecoming of people like you, HP.

HP,

He takes a typical jihadi supporter line and thats why he inspires Zeemax. ( Zeemax has caught the jihad bug temporarily, he will get out of that soon..

Since when have you joined the cockroaches of the Arjun2's? You are an enlightened interactor. You should know what this fight is all about.

Pavo is neither a Jihadi NOR an Islamist. I am. But I have my reasons, and I'm inspired by Pavo because he shows the angles of this war previously obscure.

"shouldn't have called Pavo a lowly major"

I don't know what is so offending about it unless a major thinks he is equal to a General.

A major in the army officer's hierarchy is not some exalted command position. I doubt that a major has the tactical knowledge and the inside track in to the high ranking officers' thinking and approach!

It is just calling a spade, a spade. He should not be upset about it!

Dear Author,

I have gone through your article, and appreciate your thorough knowledge about the subject. But your article raise more questions than it answers.

One thing that is lacking in all the articles on Afghan subject is the simple and basic one viz that they all assume that Afghanistan somehow is a state and if left alone will be a viable state. I say that this is totally wrong. Just for an instance, if we assume that all civil war ends and everyone starts behaving as politically informed afghanis in Afghanistan then is it possible that Afghan state can survive.

In my opinion, Afghanistan never existed as a viable state, because a viable state needs economic base, which is simply not there in Afghanistan. Afghanistan as country was found in eighteenth century by Ahmad Shah Abdali. Till the time of Rajit Singh, main revenue of the state and tribes was from their attacks in India. Almost half of the income of the state was generated from here. When this avenue closed after Sikh and subsequently British days in India, Afghan kings played big powers against each other to extract money to sustain their power. Aftar 1947, and due to their sour relations with Pakistan they started to depend heavily on Russia. This was the picture till 1978.

Sir, if you can find the economic papers on Afghanistan, you will see that all of their receipts are foreign aid (more than 60%) and rest is taxation from the people of north. There is not a single year in the history of Afghanistan in which they can raise the money to run the government on their own, if we exclude their receipts from looting in India, receipts from British or russians and now US. This country just simple cannot exist on its own, and thats the big problem.

This country has to be divided and made into economically viable regions. Which part will have to go to whom can be worked out.

So, my question is. IS AFHANISTAN A VIABLE COUNTRY AT ALL?

#45
"You should know what this fight is all about."

Oh, please enlighten me "what this fight is all about". I am all ears!

I don't support any warring party in this conflict and I am not going to support the criminals that are fighting in the name of Islam!

Imo, Pretty much all jihadi and their supporters in the tribal areas are criminals and should be treated as such. It is pitiful that educated people like you don't see it that way!

You don't have to rely on criminals, if you have policy disputes with the US. I guess this would be hard for you to figure out!