Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis

#64 Posted by anil on January 25, 2008 1:51:41 pm


If it is for the energy reserves in Central Asian countries


The energy reserves, or the ones likely to be exploited, are in western Kazakhstan. That oil isn't flowing anywhere around pureland. That's headed west through Russia or the BTC pipeline.

Pakis have deluded themselves into thinking the central asian resources HAVE to go through them. They forget that any pipeline from central asia carrying gas(not oil) will have to pass through this problem country, the name of which begins with A and ends with fghanistan.

did I mention pakis are deluded?

#47 Posted by krbhatti:

It is my turn to say "good question", and I mean it. So if I put your thesis along with pavo's it leads me to the following:

Afganistan does not have a functioning economy. It's location is strategic. Powers that be are into bribing sections of the Afghans to allow (future?) access. Whenever one power gets more access through one section of the society, other powers bribe competing sections to defeat the access providing section. This seems very much like the story of Manchuko before the Japanese invasion prior to WWII. The then powers: Britain, US, Germany, USSR and Japan simply came to an agreement and carved the region up (does anyone else know/remember this? Am I wrong here?).

Of course I am simplifying a lot. Most importantly I am leaving out the people and their desires in this story.

#66 continued...

So let me bring in the Afghan people and forget ideology, aspirations etc. for the moment. Let us assume that there are two powerful groups in A'stan - the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. At present the Alliance is in control of some areas and can potentially provide future access to NATO bases, then obviously it would be in the interest of China and Russia to provide assistance to the Taliban. So Pavo could well be on to something. India, being a much weaker power with limited resources should then find it optimal to insure itself by bribing both groups in A'stan!

But if everyone understands that this is the game, then is it optimal for all the powers to come to an agreement and have bases with limited facilities? Of course not, both the Alliance and the Taliban would oppose this as their bribes will be minimized! The option of leaving A'stan alone would have the same consequences! Both groups will create some "mischief" abroad to draw the powers in once again into A'stan. So from the point ove view of an academic exercise, the present situation may well be optimal!

Just thinking guys, don't jump at me!

First, let me say, that is quite a useless articles. The author seems to be unaware of the basic logic behind article writing that of presenting REASONS for your claims, not a single reason is presented in any of these claims which are more a summary and speculation of mainstream reports. There is nothing original or new so the article is quite worthless, if history writing, tabulation and claims with no reason, mere speculation, (even though I might agree with some of it but whenever I present something I give my reasons)then better writings can easily be accessed. That said, Afghanistan is a mere distraction and not something the US is terribly interested in, its "investment" in it in terms of troops etc has been a joke compared to Iraq and the greater middle east, where the true interest of the US lies. Afghanistan gives the US a mere bonus, sought or unsought of its military footprint and bases which it is addicted to, maintaining a network of over 800 around the globe and if the claims of insiders are to be held credible several dozen unknown/unclaimed ones.

Pavo writes "Re: # 2 once the US troops enter pakistan the paki generals will lose all credibility . but the fact is thet in order to make the americans happy the paki military junta will go to any extent."

Mian, US troops entering or not the Pakistani generals have lost credibility with the Pakistani people after ever major episode in our history but that hasn't stopped them from doing what they do. It is not that they want to make the "american's happy" but their transformed nature since very early on in our history is such that they are America's occupation force indigeneously staffed, their very basis of existence as a viable colonial institution in Pakistan rests on America, so when they submit to it they are merely fulfilling their natural function of self-preservation and not "making them happy" as if they were sovereign and had a choice.

One more comment on the "state, non-state" actors, whenever the US has tried to destabalize a state and its people's government it has used non-state reactionary militias and then using propaganda, not to mention military help, endowed them with the "state"- Regarding 9/11 the US had greater clue regarding who was "behind it" before it was pulled off than it had regarding the Oklahoma city bombing- so the big claims about "World War" and someone being able to hit NY etc are just that "big claims", this entire thing was a farce and the micro-pygmies (much smaller than actual pygmies- I refer to the farcial Al-Qaeda) who have been elevated to "major enemy" status to carry on a war without end- which is actually economic in origin and seeks to perpetuate a dying system of US pseudo-capitalism, is there becuase no state is willing to play the US game only those fools were dumb enough to fall for it....and Zeemax agrees to play along with them

In #68 read "First, let me say, that is quite a useless articles." as "First, let me say, that is quite a useless article.

As usual mr. AA has written very interesting article. There are many complex things going there and only future will tell what holds for A.stan and its neighbours.
When new regimes come and go some things revert back to old things but some changes are permanant.
Russians in A.Stan destroyed all old system of king and ruling people who were mostly Pushtun/pathan. Only one king was non pathan for short time. After russian entering there all other ethinic groups have started asserting , like tajik, uzbeks , turkomen, hazaras and Pathan lost monopoly for ever it looks. Just like Kurds now others will not take lying down as in old times.
I feel statement India will become powerful is not correct , unless they satisfyy pakistan in kashmir settlement as Pakitan will mired in problems still it can easily not allow indian progress , like pulling ladder when indians start climbing.
I do not understand these things too much due to complexity .

Incidently there is a singer from A.Stan ( 1924-1983) I like Ustad Mo. Sarhang perhaps best exponent of Hindustani music and it is interesting to listening him in amalgamation of Hindustani and Pushto language. His singing can be heard on internet singing in variuos ragas and styles like hindol, jog, bhairavi, Miyan ki todi . madhuwanti. I like ihis amalgamated singing in Yaman Kalyan with bols of "rama baran...." and some bols in pushtu. There is live concert on internet about 15 min. at Calcutta in 60s in Piloo raga ' Roop Diye Krishna Murari....". as well tarana in Shankara is very beautiful presentation , very enjoyable music with melodious voice. Man is dead but he elevated himself and listerns to transscend national boundaries and bring enjoyment to listeners.
Have good day.

Re: # 65

Arjun:

If you had watched Farenheit 911, you may recall the scene when Talebans were hosted in the White House.

Strategic manueverings strong party just needs strong presence to negotiate advantage. Yes, it is a speculation on my part that the U.S. would like to fish in those waters, and not conceed rights to Russia and China, without getting some kind of security for the current oil fields which supply to the U.S., and the West.

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pavo:
"and the americans threaten them that if you are not good boys we will make the indians deal with u."

I dont think that Indians won't take any such bait. Hopefully, there are some "Chanakyas" in the South Block who know the difference between short-term gain and long-term pain.

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Re: # 75 Anil, T, Arjun ,Laddu etc if you do not like masadi just do not read . Stop harrassing and red flagging , its mean and hitting below belt. And I thjionk you p[eople are doing thjese things to keep him out, vicious writing abpoiut him, bad cruide words and puuting [pressuire on owner to banm any bopdy is maen and evil byue.
good day.

Ameriocan opffiocial hjave told afghans to bne sewnsetivbe to pakistan about indian activiteis ( curb 15 offices in afghan cities) and agree to durand line as international border. That will satisfy both sides. Chief opf Taliban Omar Mull;ah has directed his people nopt tpo attack pakistan army as they arte supporting eachj opther is significiant.
Still there ios l;ots of money to be squeezed from american as operations ore open ended, in ,next 20 years will reacjh all topgether aboput 200 billion doll;ars to state economy by direct tranfewr pof dollars. No body should blame army as they say make all hay till sun is shining.

Re: # 76

Madani sahib:

I do not red flag anyone. BTW, I like what you write.

I wonder how all this is going to affect pipelines to Pakistan. It looks IPI gas line is dead. Iran is suffering from shortage of gas. They stopped pumping gas to Turkestan as Azeris stopped sending gas. Supreme leader of Iran Aytullah Khameni crtiticised Primeminister. Now have they sufficient gas t export ? Some govt ministers are opposed to send out gas when there is shortage of gas. Due to lack of refining capacity they want to import petrol urgently millions of mallins per month. Or I raninans having cold feet due to worry from blasting going in B.Stan. May be we should think carefully what if they do not provide sufficient qiuantities ? Large expense will be wasted. It hard to know what goes in Iranian mind which is full of race concious attitude as they are fair colored than us. No bosy knows. Unless terrorist and their atins are curbed no point n building pipeline till terror controls and blows up pipes and electic poles.

#68 Posted by masadi,

Pavo does not have to give his reasons. He just states his opinions - and expects readers to take them or leave them.