Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis

Amin sahib,

Well-written.

One point regarding the non-deployment of troops on the A'stan frontier. Why is Pakistan not stationing troops there. There can be only two explanations- 1. It does not want to weaken its eastern frontier. 2. It does not want to fight the Pushtoons there.

1. is clearly nonsense. Seriously the Pakis dont think that Indians want to attack Pakistan.

So would you say that it is becuase Pakistan does not want to fight the Pushtoons/ Afghans?

And what do you make of the latest deployment of troops in W'stan? Especially the use of tanks. What good wud tanks do in the mountainous terrain of W'stan?

Regards

Thanks Pavo.

How do you view today's statement of U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates that the United States is "ready, able and willing" to send troops to Pakistan if the government of Pakistan is interested?

I tend to think before the elections date there could be a major incident (another political assassination etc) and the GOP just might show that 'interest'.

Of-course in the background that an additional 9,000 US troops arrived in AF last month. Obviously these would be intended for Pakistan.

Pavo,

Moreover the Pashtun leadership was transformed and changed hands from a previously more dynastic one to a more ideological one ...

From above it would be correct to say that the original Mujahideen were fighting a 'proxy war' while the neo-Taliban are fighting an 'ideological war'.

Amin Saheb:
Another thought provoking article.
"The most significant feature of the Soviet Afghan War of 1978-1992 was a fusion of non State and State actors. State actors like USA and Pakistan used non State actors like the so called Mujahideen as proxies to inflict attrition on State actors i. e the USSR and the PDPA regime and their armed forces. As a result the non State actors acquired technology and skills that in the long run would threaten State actors. There was a transition to Fourth Generation Warfare in which the state was no longer the stronger player. Non State actors challenged the supremacy of the very idea of state by using ingenious expedients, which were cost effective in the sense that devices of sabotage worth a small amount could destroy property or installations a 100, 000 times their small value."

Well said!

Has it occurred to you that, even at this stage, Pakistan will have many more degrees of freedom and options if its military establishment gave up its inbred hostility against India in order to deal with its existentialist struggle?

Re: # 1 i pity the brother armoured corps guys whose tanks are deployed there .tanks as the soviet afghan war proved convincingly are a total failure in waziristan type terrain.

its a proof of I think Pope's verse :--

never set a squadron in the field nor knew the division of battle more than a spinster

Re: # 4 the muslims as you know were saved from extinction by the east india company.to gain a position of unfair advantage the muslim elite classes created pakistan.

now i think both countries should come closer.rationally at least.but who will bell the cat.the paki generals have a notorious nexus with americans and the punjabi mohajir and pashtun elite are also a partner in this.the sindhis and baloch are the aborigines in this case.

Re: # 3 u r right sir.

Re: # 2 once the US troops enter pakistan the paki generals will lose all credibility . but the fact is thet in order to make the americans happy the paki military junta will go to any extent.

pavocavalry.

What about #2?

Re: # 1 ideally pakistan army should not be in the tribal areas at all.but the americans are doing a lot of arm twisting.......and the americans threaten them that if you are not good boys we will make the indians deal with u.

#8 Posted by pavocavalry,

Thanks. But do you regard this statement as as indication of an imminent intervention?

i think this would be a great opportunity for the tribals to deal with the hated kuffar ! it would be counter productive for americans and the pakistan army will also lose credibility . lets hope that the new army boss sees to this.

Re: # 11 intervention is clearly the writing on the wall.and it is to destroy whatever is left of the credibility of the paki army.ultimately the US will use the paki army as a mercenary force for tactical garbage collecting in the region.

#12 Posted by pavocavalry,

Yes I remember you said before that they're waiting for them to come.

But what I don't understand, why's there fighting in Darra Adam Khel? Darra is not Waziristan, and military lost 5 ammunition trucks hijacked yesterday.

Re: # 14 naturally if one limb of the same body is attacked , another will respond , further it is not difficult to infiltrate to darra from waziristan cross country, a couple of snipers can play havoc with an army, thats the beauty of frontier warfare, the tribals are no punjabis whose mosques were used by sikhs as horse stables as badshahi mosque lahore , the tribals are no settled area pashtuns who were saved from sikhs by english east india company in 1849.

the mullahs of peshawar,kohat and bannu proclaimed the english company as saviour of muslims from sikhs in 1849

#15 Posted by pavocavalry,

Haha Pavo yes, but these trucks had tank escorts according to the military spokesman (he said tanks were only being used as convoy escorts, and not as artillery ...).

Re: # 16 tanks are bad escorts in mountain country . the driver or gunner or commander can hardly see anything.tanks are worse than sitting ducks.the person who thinks that tanks can be escorts in that terrain should be court martialled and shot . but this is not a professional force.main role of defence establishment in pakistan has unfortunately become making defence residential housing schemes.

i again say sir , never set a squadron in the field nor knew the division of battle more than a spinster .Pope summed it well more than 150 years ago.

Dear author

On the subject of Hameed Gul:

Hameed Gul= Mehrangate + ego maniac = Zero Credibility.

the subject is very vast and broad and hameed gul and other actors are a very small part of the affair sir.

Pavo,

Really enjoyed reading this. Once again you are forcing the reader to think outside the box .... in particular the role of China, USSR and possibly India in Afghanistan.

I know nothing about geo-politics and optimal strategies in such scenario. In such a situation, I like the proverbial fool should probably keep shut. But being this fool, I cannot but help put forth a few of my own thoughts.

Dominant geo-political strategy, unfortunately, is drafted by cabals unfettered by democratic constraints. Since Kennedy's time this is blatantly obvious in the US, where strange creatures from clubs in Harvard and Yale (and now Chicago) get to determine "foreign policy" as if it were to be a solution of some well defined (and hence simple) "game". Cabals in the USSR, China and India of course do not even understand the concept of democracy. In such a situation, it seems to me that, they are not (and shall not be) able to counter complex and chaotic strategies that evolve democratically, and often dramatically, from the ground. Perhaps, the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan (and earlier in Vietnam) highlights my point.

[Let me give you an instance that I am aware of. For Vietnam, these guys made some economists estimate through linear estimates the tonnage of TNT that would defeat the Vietnamese. The resulting policy recommendation was followed for more than a year.]

To come to my basic point, I would like to assert that to get out of this huge mess, ideas have to be garnered from the unwashed masses. The defense of Stalingard was an order imposed from above. However, supply, communication and military tactics evolved on the ground where there was a thin line seperating the army from civilians (those that stayed behind). The whole concept of an atom bomb, hazardous as it is, evolved through a chaotic process. The implementation in Santa Fe, though under military command, was carried out by civillians (I was fortunate to take classes from a couple of mathematicians who worked in the project). Could it be possible that a concept of a "Green Bomb" implemented rigourously across the globe, far from the influences of Haliburton and group, could solve a part of this mess.

Regards and sorry for rambling.

Re: # 21 you are right sir . intersetingly i am sub sub sub sub contractor of Halliburton /KBR etc.

i think your thoughts have great value . actually every one's have .

its very complicated and if one is based in afghanistan one realises this very soon as i did sir.

Amin Saheb: Excellent strategic analysis. I don't know much about waziristan fighting so I just have this thought bugging me. What if Americans want to keep the waziris engaged on a low-intensity level and keep the operations at a steady state for a longer term? This way all sides get what they want, let's see:

1 - Pentagon will have the budget, building contracts and something to do in the War on Terra' and al-Qaeda won't have a freehand in planning strikes on Western cities like they did pre-9/11 under Mulla Umer.

2 - US politicians can sell this War on Terra' so it's good for political point scoring. strong on National Security blah blah

3 - Pakistan Army gets the cash to run the "operations in the tribal areas" and gets to keep the paki real-estate firmly under its boots.

4 - Tribals get plenty opportunity to uphold the traditions of their barbaric forefathers by fighting the infidels in the name of honor/justice/peace/jihad/rightful cause/etc. and populating the Waiziristan section of Paradise etc. etc.

Everyone is happy.

Raw,

Yaar, the problem is that the funds for Pentagon are drying up in the sense that more halabuloo is associated for each additional sense. Top it out with the fact that armament inventories are at a level much higher than they were before the first Iraq war. Add to it that armament manufacturing is no longer labor intensive (as compared to construction and health care say). So funding around this time is more contentious. Sum up everything and you come to the conclusion that WOT will not sell as well in the near future.

additional sense=additional cent

Just a sophomoric effort interspersed with references to fourth generation warfare and known facts about the proxy war and the Pak and US support of the muj.

A strategic analysis as the author likes to call it, is not jotting down recorded events without providing any analysis of the pro and cons of the events and the policy decisions.

The conclusion part is really bogus and shows the writer’s inability to analyze the situation correctly.

“What is DYNCORP dong in Afghanistan; it has how many Israeli agents dealing with Pakistan. These were hot on the Pakistani formation commanders conference list ?”

The author discusses the US-Pak relationship and makes DynCorp the linchpin of that relationship. DynCorp is a defense contractor and has many Jewish employees. Labeling them as Israeli agents is really pathetic. The Jews are part of the US corporate culture and are not promoting the Israeli causes. This is a childish method of analysis and tends to provide conclusions that are not prudent!

DynCorp might have some CIA working in there too but why should that be a reason for hot listing in formation commanders meeting has not been explained by the author.

“Tragically Afghanistan has remained a scene of Indo Pak conflict right from 1947.”

Briefly, the Afghans historically have been closer to India and main reason for that support was Bacha Khan. Bacha Khan, no doubt was great man and politician with some integrity but his influence was limited in NWFP in a sense that the NWFP was and still is more ethnically diverse and Bacha Khan’s support was limited to ethnic pushtoons majority areas. The afghan government provided him moral and reportedly as some claim, financial support too before the partition. Despite all that, Afghan was just a blip in Indian-Pakistan relationship. Afghanistan depended on Pakistan on its economic survival and still does. So the ideological differences with Pakistan were superseded by the economic interests.

The conclusion part actually has no conclusion in it.

“The USA has two broad options i. e retain the airbases and intensify the proxy war so that all proxies are bled white, because DDR or DIAG or any kind of ABCDXYZ cannot reduce the proxies to size. “The second option is to deal more effectively with the regional actors which may be far more costly. Happy the country that had no history.”
”

Does this make any sense? What if it is in the US interest to prolong the proxy war instead of ending it?

Taking potshots at Pakistan does not make a good strategic analysis. The country that has no history has taken part in major history making events in both the previous century and the current century and has created a niche for itself in the history. Its role maybe bad or good and that should be discussed exhaustively but drawing a conclusion that country with no history should be decimated appears to be the author's desire more that a scientific conclusion!

GT,

I think Pavo is doing a great job in showing people the reality. We actually 'have' been in the thirld world war since the 80s except people don't realize it. People like the interactor below think it is just a game which will continue without much damage to the ones who count i.e. like him. However, this is a war which has no end game (like the nuking of Japan) but rather deadly gambits all the way. In the end the side who is not bled dry will win.

... err I meant the poster below GT ...

Now that HP is here ... I better pop another can and microwave the popcorn :)

Now that HP is here ... I better pop another can and microwave the popcorn :)

HP, I think what Pavo quoted 'Happy the country that had no history' in a wistful manner meaning history can be a great burden.

Re: # 20

Dear pavo

point well taken.

Dear author,

On the subject of actors involved, you have not mentioned the role of Saudi Arabia and their concerns with regards to Shia influence that could destabilize their eastern borders.

Saudis have plenty of stake in Pakistan their natural ally and this friendship has extended itself well into Afghanistan where both partners find common interest in containing Persian influence and at teh same time maintain their political hegemony.

9/11 was a decisive moment in history of warfare. It saw the triumph of non state actors over state actors. The US mainland which was never attacked in two world wars and throughout the Cold War was successfully attacked.


Let me get this straight...the US gave the hijackers visas..they used the lax security at US airports, just snuck up on planes with knives and flew the planes into buildings...

and this is a triumph or an unparalleled military feat how?

The next time muzzies pull this kind of cr@p, the american people will be open to mass internments of muslims and deporting those who are not citizens...if that hasn't happened so far, then it's because of certain values American people believe in...you pull shit like 9/11 again and that will surely change...then we'll see how you achieve "unparalleled military feats" from internment camps...

#8 Posted by pavocavalry on January 25, 2008 6:34:27 am


Re: # 2 once the US troops enter pakistan the paki generals will lose all credibility .


seriously...the paki generals who told the paki junta that there were no paki troops in kargil HAD any credibility? or perhaps the paki junta is self-deluded if they believed that..

Pavo, like any army officer would, believes that the Pak army has lots of credibility! The institution has no credibility that escapes his attention.

He is implying that the army Generals are credible as long as the US army is not in Pakistan. Like a typical amry officer, he thinks that whatever the generals have done so far to the country has no bearing on their credibility. The looting of the country, the killings of the politicians, the destruction of the constitution, and other illegal acts like attacks of supreme courts have no bearing whatsoever on the credibility of the army Generals.

Clearly the problem is with the whole institution that breeds officers who are completely oblivious of the realities on the ground. They live in a cocoon where the world is all about the Pak army. He thinks, just a few army Generals are bad and if they are replaced with some god fearing generals everything will be honky dory in Pakistan.
The years of non sense that is injected into their heads makes them completely incapable of thinking of the people, and the country.

The officers are about six percent of the whole army and can be replaced easily without impacting anything as the only skill Pakistan officers have: invade the country.

We should hire some college graduates trained them afresh, find some rtd generals for the interim and move the Pakistan army HQTRS to Multan. No army in Islamabad and Pindi and soon we will see dramatic effects on Pakistani politics.The other option is to move the Pakistan capital to Multan and destroy the cantonment in that city!

Re: # 36 HP

Your thesis is correct. NaPak fouj is the most hated institution in the country right now. The Generals and their civilian underlings are more hated than the Americans I would say.

I fully agree with your thesis on replacing the so called "officer cadre", however, my inclination is towards disbandment of this lawless and corrupt entity altogether. I suggest a people's army instead. The experiment of Pasdaran-e-Inqilab in Iran has been quite successful over the past 30 odd years; don't forget that they fought one of the bloddiest war in the post WWII era for 10 years. Which proves that in modern times "a trained military officer" has no value add to any army.

Urstruly,
I am not concerned with the cadre. I think they are all poor folks and depriving them of the livelihood is not a good idea!

For the officers: after doing what they have done to the country, they deserve to beg on the streets along with their wives and kids so they learn humility and get to know the country! To make them Ibrat ki Tasveer, I would say they should only be allowed to beg on Traffic stops and railway stations!

There is no need for the Volunteer army, we should only have draft and the poor folks( Cadre) that are working in the army now, are not replaced as they retire!

#37 Posted by Urstruly on January 25, 2008 10:44:14 am

Do you remember the article you wrote for chowk a few years ago?

Lots of bravado..lot of talk of holding India hostage to deter a US attack on pureland...you clearly didn't see the most obvious outcome..the US making a female dog out of the paki military establishment..

http://www.chowk.com/articles/6078

Survival of the Fittest
Urstruly April 23, 2003

This is what urstruly was saying in 2003...that was before the land of the pure went into a civil war and bunch of pakis got whacked...that was before the US regularly send hellfires to send paki jihadis to hell...on paki soil..


how's the whole "threaten india to keep pakiland from being made into a female dog" thing working out for you?


The New Doctrine of Deterrence

The strategic plan that I put forward is based on the doctrine, which can be summarized in one phrase i.e. "India Defends Pakistan". This doctrine can further be explained in the following words.

If there is a credible, overwhelming and persistent threat to Indian integrity, defense, and economic interests, from Pakistan- in case a third party (in this case, US) threatens the security of Pakistan - India will act as a deterrent in a bid to defend both; and thus Pakistan can avert an aggression.


The Second Line of Defense – Military Preparations

There are five tiers of military defense that Pakistan should start establishing at this time:

Tier 1 Defense: The first tier of defense is the armed forces of Pakistan themselves. I hope that an internal review of lessons learned from the latest Afghan and Iraq wars has already begun. Our first objective in order to create a viable deterrence, as discussed above, was stated as " India must buy the idea that the aggression on Pakistan, by anyone, will have formidable and dire consequences for India." In order to create such a deterrent Pakistan must improve its missile system, and strengthen its air defense. Almost all Indian industrial cities must be with in the range of these missiles. Pakistan Air force must be capable of inflicting irreparable damage to the Indian infrastructure and economics. New bilateral defense agreements and treaties must be signed with China, France, Germany, and Russia. With in next two years Pakistan must also conduct nuclear tests and develop tactical devices

HP:

You state,

"A strategic analysis ......, is not jotting down recorded events without providing any analysis of the pro and cons of the events and the policy decisions."

I disagree. Describing the complexity of a problem and even noting pertinent questions can by itself be an achivement. After that, narrowing down the problem with acceptable assumptions so that "pros and cons" can be coherently discussed is desirable.

I feel that you have been a bit harsh on pavo .... actually very harsh. I think it is because of a few initial interacts.

Re: # 39

Thank you. Don't you see that consequences for not preparing itself as recommended in my article have proven to be prophetic. It was all common sense. Unfortunately I cannot say "told you so...". But dispite all that situation is not all that hopeless. Thank heavens that Musharraf the Dog has become a liability for every party involved in the debacle. he is a liability for fouj, for americasn, for people, and world community at large. Just as as this dog is sacked, fouj is bound to change some extreme changes in the way it operates in Pakistan.

#41 Posted by GT
"I feel that you have been a bit harsh on pavo .... actually very harsh. I think it is because of a few initial interacts."

GT, I don't know if I had been harsh enough! Pavo represents a pov which is army centric and when it is not army centric, he is promoting jihad and encouraging the bands of criminal that roam the tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan!

He takes a typical jihadi supporter line and thats why he inspires Zeemax. ( Zeemax has caught the jihad bug temporarily, he will get out of that soon).

I know you show a genuine interest to learn and I appreciate that. However, your knowledge of the intellectual trends in Pakistan is limited and it is hard for you to spot where a certain writer is coming from.

These guys were strictly pro US, pro Pak army as long as the jihad was on in Afghanistan. In the new situation, after 9-11, their kaaba has moved too. Now they are anti US, partially anti Pak army( just to the extent of opposing the Generals but waiting for the God fearing general to come along and fix the army so it is back to what it was under Zia!)

Who are these guys? They are the former Jihadi from inside the Pak army who still follow the jihad line and are a constant threat to the country. Since Pakistanis are not supporting their political line, they are now anti-Pakistan too. But once a God fearing general takes over, they would be back on the army side to raise the Islamic Jhanda!

The biggest crime for them was committed by Musharaf when he turned against the taliban after 9-11. You can see that in Pavo's writings on this site and elsewhere!

They are promoting a line that will destroy Pakistan to create a Islamic homeland for the criminals in the tribal areas.

So I am really not harsh enough!

HP,

HP, C'mon, now you shouldn't have called Pavo a lowly major. The guy obviously knows many things which we don't. Still he tried to continue but you kept ridiculing him. Admit it.

That's conduct unbecoming of people like you, HP.

HP,

He takes a typical jihadi supporter line and thats why he inspires Zeemax. ( Zeemax has caught the jihad bug temporarily, he will get out of that soon..

Since when have you joined the cockroaches of the Arjun2's? You are an enlightened interactor. You should know what this fight is all about.

Pavo is neither a Jihadi NOR an Islamist. I am. But I have my reasons, and I'm inspired by Pavo because he shows the angles of this war previously obscure.

"shouldn't have called Pavo a lowly major"

I don't know what is so offending about it unless a major thinks he is equal to a General.

A major in the army officer's hierarchy is not some exalted command position. I doubt that a major has the tactical knowledge and the inside track in to the high ranking officers' thinking and approach!

It is just calling a spade, a spade. He should not be upset about it!

Dear Author,

I have gone through your article, and appreciate your thorough knowledge about the subject. But your article raise more questions than it answers.

One thing that is lacking in all the articles on Afghan subject is the simple and basic one viz that they all assume that Afghanistan somehow is a state and if left alone will be a viable state. I say that this is totally wrong. Just for an instance, if we assume that all civil war ends and everyone starts behaving as politically informed afghanis in Afghanistan then is it possible that Afghan state can survive.

In my opinion, Afghanistan never existed as a viable state, because a viable state needs economic base, which is simply not there in Afghanistan. Afghanistan as country was found in eighteenth century by Ahmad Shah Abdali. Till the time of Rajit Singh, main revenue of the state and tribes was from their attacks in India. Almost half of the income of the state was generated from here. When this avenue closed after Sikh and subsequently British days in India, Afghan kings played big powers against each other to extract money to sustain their power. Aftar 1947, and due to their sour relations with Pakistan they started to depend heavily on Russia. This was the picture till 1978.

Sir, if you can find the economic papers on Afghanistan, you will see that all of their receipts are foreign aid (more than 60%) and rest is taxation from the people of north. There is not a single year in the history of Afghanistan in which they can raise the money to run the government on their own, if we exclude their receipts from looting in India, receipts from British or russians and now US. This country just simple cannot exist on its own, and thats the big problem.

This country has to be divided and made into economically viable regions. Which part will have to go to whom can be worked out.

So, my question is. IS AFHANISTAN A VIABLE COUNTRY AT ALL?

#45
"You should know what this fight is all about."

Oh, please enlighten me "what this fight is all about". I am all ears!

I don't support any warring party in this conflict and I am not going to support the criminals that are fighting in the name of Islam!

Imo, Pretty much all jihadi and their supporters in the tribal areas are criminals and should be treated as such. It is pitiful that educated people like you don't see it that way!

You don't have to rely on criminals, if you have policy disputes with the US. I guess this would be hard for you to figure out!

#46 Posted by HP,

Pavo would have been a General if he had been a sycophant. Because he's a soldier, he chose differently.

#48 Posted by HP,

I am not going to support the criminals that are fighting in the name of Islam!

HP, the correct terminology being used these days is 'miscreants'.

Just a correction. Miscreants, not 'criminals'.

"Pavo would have been a General if he had been a sycophant."

Do you know him well enough to make such an absurd claim?
Anyway woulda, or coulda don't impress me at all!

#42 Urstruly: What have dogs done to you??? Why do you compare Musharraf to these fine animals?

Dogs dont tell lies day in day out. Dogs dont take over the nation they are paid to protect.

"the correct terminology being used these days is 'miscreants'"

Sugarcoating the poison pill!

HP: "miscreant" sounds like a better term (I assume by miscreant you mean musharraf).

No Tahmed,
He was referring to the criminals in the tribal areas!

zeemax: these gentlemen who are fighting in the name of islam. So, what will they do when they take over Pakistan? Give you the right to vote? I dont think so. Force people to say prayers - probably. And what would that accomplish? Unless you think people who say prayers are any less corrupt than those who do not. Even the Dogar (musharraf's man sitting on the Chief Justice's chair) went to do the hajj!!

You would be merely replacing one miscreant (musharraf) with another group of miscreants (mullahs). The only difference between the two is that whereas musharraf lives in the middle ages where might is right, this second group of miscreants lives even further in the past.

#55 thanks HP. I checked his post, and offered zeemax my two takas on it in #56.

HP: I heard sherry rahman, senator leghari and another person (visiting US nowadays) - and was disappointed to see that while the only focus of these people was on the Bhutto family.

One man got up and brought to their attention the fact that they had totally ignored the Chief Justice in their discussion - and yet, without the courage of the CJ, Musharraf would still be sitting pretty in his uniform as President, and the mainstream parties would be as much pushed aside as they have been in his previous 8 years. He told them that this was not about one family or even one party - but about the entire nation. Others picked up on this and told them that without Restoration of the Chief Justice, the struggle for freedom would have been betrayed. I think this message needs to be sent to the PPP and Nawaz Sharif as well - they need this reminding.

#58 Posted by tahmed32
Tahmed,

The situation with the CJ is a tricky one. There are clearly three dominant trends in Pakistani middle class. One group of people that don't agree with both Nawaz and the PPP tend to talk more about the CJ. Not that anything wrong with that but they need to understand that insisting on just CJ alone, is not good enough and to use that to deride the political parties is like playing in the hands of the army!

If you look at their history, most of the CJ supporters are against both political parties too.(I am not talking about the lawyers now.) The lawyers in Pakistan too are talking about working with the political parties even though most of the parties are reluctant to support the CJ issue whole heartedly.

There are always going to be many things and not everyone supports every thing. The issue is that who can bring people out and w/o the political parties that would not happen!

#51 Posted by HP,

No I don't know Pavo at all. But from his writings, I can see he would have been a General if he had been a sycophant, which he is not.

Why do you have a problem with that HP? I'm sure if you had been in politics, you would have been at-least in the Federal Cabinet.

#56 Posted by tahmed32,

No tahmed Saheb, they will not take over Pakistan. But what they will ensure is that Pakistan is dissolved. They don't believe in Nation States (neither do I BTW), and carry on from there.

This is the 'fight' which HP refuses to understand.

"would have been at-least in the Federal Cabinet."

I would have been in jail or murdered...You don't know my history!

"They don't believe in Nation States
This is the 'fight' which HP refuses to understand."

You are completely wrong if you think I don't know. There were people before them who did not believe in the nation states. There are people now who claim that nation states was not the right construct. You obviously don't follow the debates that go in the educated circles...Don't put too much faith in the criminals and their supporters like Pavo.

Amin sahib:

Your painting of the reality is engrossing. I have few basic questions:
a. why is the U.S. and the West is in Afghanistan and Pakistan?

b. If it is the hunt for OBL that brought on or 9/11, then did it not really start with remote cruise missiles cruising over Pakistan during Clinton Administration itself?

c. If it is for the energy reserves in Central Asian countries, the U.S. then is it not that the West have a bigger war in hand with China and Russia?

d. In such a case, how can a surrogate power in Afghanistan or in Pakistan serve any interest?

Unless it remains disturbed, and hence allows an access to landlocked Central Asia. History demonstrates that the U.S., and prior to it, other colonial powers had more success in achieving their strategic goals with fundamentalist forces of religion (as in Saudi Arabia even today).

No cry for democracy there, while the U.S. has been bombing democracy into Iraq, and may not hesitate to destabilize democracy in Iran for the second time, if necessary. Bush is on the record that Nuclear Iran means Third World War, with these simple words.

Democracies are notorious in not taking orders. Military is no longer a viable game in Pakistan. Afghanistan is as much of a foothold to access Central Asian energy resources as it is keep under check new method of governance in Pakistan under check. It gives really gives a method to keep under control 300 million people who profess Islam as a religion. Especially now, this religion than any other today has ability to make the followers fall in line. If Al-Qaeda can try to use it, why would you think others would not? I have seen here how easy it is rile up seemingly intelligent people in the name of Islam. There are people like HP Mian, whose best is to hurl abuses like Mother Burner and Ganesh Mutant, and Massaddi Mian whose with par course is 7th century to Mills. Any disagreement, this group of Islamic intellects is completely lost. I am confident, if Al-Qaeda can use such intelligent people, others can too. And they will. Many of the others do it to prove how easily institutionalized Islam and its followers can be manipulated today.

Musharraff is really speaking out on this trip to Europe. May be he knows his departure is eminent, and that he has everything to gain. Especially when any card he played in the last 12 months had back fired. He had proven beyond anyone’s doubts that he will take orders from the U.S. (the way CJ was restored, allowed BB in, and he undid emergency), and that he is ready to take orders from Saudis also (the way he made a trip to Saudi Arabia and few days later a Saudi plane lands with NS in it).

Like it or not, India since 1991 has been creating an economic engine and changing government three times. If anything, Indian leaders must look on its western border and say how can that form of stability can be kept west of the border.

This time Pakistan’s quagmire cannot be solved by going into war with India. Today, the strategic deficit in Pakistan’s position – nothing to offer other than outsource its Army and keep its high on testosterone Generals busy near its borders – is its biggest challenge. I saw Charlie Wilson’s War – I read somewhere that it is a true story – speaks volume in support of my point. Billions poured in, no questions were asked, but the instant Soviets lost, there was not even a single dollar to fund schools.

In Pakistan’s specific case, I can only see one interest for the world and not just the U.S. and the West. It is the nuclear triggers. Pakistan can play into fears and get some mileage out. Ultimately, hard as it may be for the pro-democratic civilians to swallow their pride and accept that Pakistan must rely on outsourcing the services of its army. This region in the world has a history of outsourcing of capable armed people.

The next government must use it too, and use it in such a way that generals remain discredited with the civilians and busy elsewhere. Where else, than to send them to a “Dangal” in their own backyard, especially if it is paid for by Uncle Sam. This can give a peaceful period to make a transition that is worthy of 140 million people, who have showed a respect toward institutions, however bankrupt they were made by the people who seize power to rule.

#64 Posted by anil on January 25, 2008 1:51:41 pm


If it is for the energy reserves in Central Asian countries


The energy reserves, or the ones likely to be exploited, are in western Kazakhstan. That oil isn't flowing anywhere around pureland. That's headed west through Russia or the BTC pipeline.

Pakis have deluded themselves into thinking the central asian resources HAVE to go through them. They forget that any pipeline from central asia carrying gas(not oil) will have to pass through this problem country, the name of which begins with A and ends with fghanistan.

did I mention pakis are deluded?

#47 Posted by krbhatti:

It is my turn to say "good question", and I mean it. So if I put your thesis along with pavo's it leads me to the following:

Afganistan does not have a functioning economy. It's location is strategic. Powers that be are into bribing sections of the Afghans to allow (future?) access. Whenever one power gets more access through one section of the society, other powers bribe competing sections to defeat the access providing section. This seems very much like the story of Manchuko before the Japanese invasion prior to WWII. The then powers: Britain, US, Germany, USSR and Japan simply came to an agreement and carved the region up (does anyone else know/remember this? Am I wrong here?).

Of course I am simplifying a lot. Most importantly I am leaving out the people and their desires in this story.

#66 continued...

So let me bring in the Afghan people and forget ideology, aspirations etc. for the moment. Let us assume that there are two powerful groups in A'stan - the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. At present the Alliance is in control of some areas and can potentially provide future access to NATO bases, then obviously it would be in the interest of China and Russia to provide assistance to the Taliban. So Pavo could well be on to something. India, being a much weaker power with limited resources should then find it optimal to insure itself by bribing both groups in A'stan!

But if everyone understands that this is the game, then is it optimal for all the powers to come to an agreement and have bases with limited facilities? Of course not, both the Alliance and the Taliban would oppose this as their bribes will be minimized! The option of leaving A'stan alone would have the same consequences! Both groups will create some "mischief" abroad to draw the powers in once again into A'stan. So from the point ove view of an academic exercise, the present situation may well be optimal!

Just thinking guys, don't jump at me!

First, let me say, that is quite a useless articles. The author seems to be unaware of the basic logic behind article writing that of presenting REASONS for your claims, not a single reason is presented in any of these claims which are more a summary and speculation of mainstream reports. There is nothing original or new so the article is quite worthless, if history writing, tabulation and claims with no reason, mere speculation, (even though I might agree with some of it but whenever I present something I give my reasons)then better writings can easily be accessed. That said, Afghanistan is a mere distraction and not something the US is terribly interested in, its "investment" in it in terms of troops etc has been a joke compared to Iraq and the greater middle east, where the true interest of the US lies. Afghanistan gives the US a mere bonus, sought or unsought of its military footprint and bases which it is addicted to, maintaining a network of over 800 around the globe and if the claims of insiders are to be held credible several dozen unknown/unclaimed ones.

Pavo writes "Re: # 2 once the US troops enter pakistan the paki generals will lose all credibility . but the fact is thet in order to make the americans happy the paki military junta will go to any extent."

Mian, US troops entering or not the Pakistani generals have lost credibility with the Pakistani people after ever major episode in our history but that hasn't stopped them from doing what they do. It is not that they want to make the "american's happy" but their transformed nature since very early on in our history is such that they are America's occupation force indigeneously staffed, their very basis of existence as a viable colonial institution in Pakistan rests on America, so when they submit to it they are merely fulfilling their natural function of self-preservation and not "making them happy" as if they were sovereign and had a choice.

One more comment on the "state, non-state" actors, whenever the US has tried to destabalize a state and its people's government it has used non-state reactionary militias and then using propaganda, not to mention military help, endowed them with the "state"- Regarding 9/11 the US had greater clue regarding who was "behind it" before it was pulled off than it had regarding the Oklahoma city bombing- so the big claims about "World War" and someone being able to hit NY etc are just that "big claims", this entire thing was a farce and the micro-pygmies (much smaller than actual pygmies- I refer to the farcial Al-Qaeda) who have been elevated to "major enemy" status to carry on a war without end- which is actually economic in origin and seeks to perpetuate a dying system of US pseudo-capitalism, is there becuase no state is willing to play the US game only those fools were dumb enough to fall for it....and Zeemax agrees to play along with them

In #68 read "First, let me say, that is quite a useless articles." as "First, let me say, that is quite a useless article.

As usual mr. AA has written very interesting article. There are many complex things going there and only future will tell what holds for A.stan and its neighbours.
When new regimes come and go some things revert back to old things but some changes are permanant.
Russians in A.Stan destroyed all old system of king and ruling people who were mostly Pushtun/pathan. Only one king was non pathan for short time. After russian entering there all other ethinic groups have started asserting , like tajik, uzbeks , turkomen, hazaras and Pathan lost monopoly for ever it looks. Just like Kurds now others will not take lying down as in old times.
I feel statement India will become powerful is not correct , unless they satisfyy pakistan in kashmir settlement as Pakitan will mired in problems still it can easily not allow indian progress , like pulling ladder when indians start climbing.
I do not understand these things too much due to complexity .

Incidently there is a singer from A.Stan ( 1924-1983) I like Ustad Mo. Sarhang perhaps best exponent of Hindustani music and it is interesting to listening him in amalgamation of Hindustani and Pushto language. His singing can be heard on internet singing in variuos ragas and styles like hindol, jog, bhairavi, Miyan ki todi . madhuwanti. I like ihis amalgamated singing in Yaman Kalyan with bols of "rama baran...." and some bols in pushtu. There is live concert on internet about 15 min. at Calcutta in 60s in Piloo raga ' Roop Diye Krishna Murari....". as well tarana in Shankara is very beautiful presentation , very enjoyable music with melodious voice. Man is dead but he elevated himself and listerns to transscend national boundaries and bring enjoyment to listeners.
Have good day.

Re: # 65

Arjun:

If you had watched Farenheit 911, you may recall the scene when Talebans were hosted in the White House.

Strategic manueverings strong party just needs strong presence to negotiate advantage. Yes, it is a speculation on my part that the U.S. would like to fish in those waters, and not conceed rights to Russia and China, without getting some kind of security for the current oil fields which supply to the U.S., and the West.

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pavo:
"and the americans threaten them that if you are not good boys we will make the indians deal with u."

I dont think that Indians won't take any such bait. Hopefully, there are some "Chanakyas" in the South Block who know the difference between short-term gain and long-term pain.

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Re: # 75 Anil, T, Arjun ,Laddu etc if you do not like masadi just do not read . Stop harrassing and red flagging , its mean and hitting below belt. And I thjionk you p[eople are doing thjese things to keep him out, vicious writing abpoiut him, bad cruide words and puuting [pressuire on owner to banm any bopdy is maen and evil byue.
good day.

Ameriocan opffiocial hjave told afghans to bne sewnsetivbe to pakistan about indian activiteis ( curb 15 offices in afghan cities) and agree to durand line as international border. That will satisfy both sides. Chief opf Taliban Omar Mull;ah has directed his people nopt tpo attack pakistan army as they arte supporting eachj opther is significiant.
Still there ios l;ots of money to be squeezed from american as operations ore open ended, in ,next 20 years will reacjh all topgether aboput 200 billion doll;ars to state economy by direct tranfewr pof dollars. No body should blame army as they say make all hay till sun is shining.

Re: # 76

Madani sahib:

I do not red flag anyone. BTW, I like what you write.

I wonder how all this is going to affect pipelines to Pakistan. It looks IPI gas line is dead. Iran is suffering from shortage of gas. They stopped pumping gas to Turkestan as Azeris stopped sending gas. Supreme leader of Iran Aytullah Khameni crtiticised Primeminister. Now have they sufficient gas t export ? Some govt ministers are opposed to send out gas when there is shortage of gas. Due to lack of refining capacity they want to import petrol urgently millions of mallins per month. Or I raninans having cold feet due to worry from blasting going in B.Stan. May be we should think carefully what if they do not provide sufficient qiuantities ? Large expense will be wasted. It hard to know what goes in Iranian mind which is full of race concious attitude as they are fair colored than us. No bosy knows. Unless terrorist and their atins are curbed no point n building pipeline till terror controls and blows up pipes and electic poles.

#68 Posted by masadi,

Pavo does not have to give his reasons. He just states his opinions - and expects readers to take them or leave them.

..i just returned from india.......interesting trip, as usual......i have always had a lot of theories about india, india-pakistan and south asia....nearly every single one is proving out to be correct.....

1. when one lands in india, one gets the image as if it is even more backwards than pakistan.....the airports are much worse, the traffic is worse, more visible poverty, infrastructure is worse etc.

2. however, when one digs a bit deeper, one sees that things in india are starting to gel together.....the govt. institutions are stable and relatively credible, and the private sector is, now, competing at the int'l level.....

3. the biggest difference one sees is in the attitude.....indians are on a patriotic high....too high, if you ask me.....but a good high for them....they are convinced, they are the next usa......pakistanis are on a historic low.....people actually are starting to doubt the creation of the country....something only a few intellectual elites used to do earlier........

4. some other things i noticed.......all surveys indicate that usa is very popular in india - second only to its popularity in israel.....even though the rest of the world generally dislikes usa.......however, in india, contrary to the surveys, i generally saw quite a bit of anti-americanism....didn't find too many indians who were pro-us foreign policy........

5. indians are quite concerned about what will happen in pakistan.....much like pakistanis are about what will happen in afghanistan......i think indians have finally realized that there is a strong linkage of their future with pakistan......if things are unstable in pakistan, it will greatly harm india......

6. there was a genuine desire to debate issues.....i had quite a few discussions on political subjects.......there is quite a bit of interest in pakistan, its culture etc; moreso than i expected......

7. one common yet contradicting factor that i noticed: indians ridiculed, made fun of, found utterly useless their politicians, much like pakistanis do......the complains of corruption, incompetence, nepotism are identical.......yet, ironically, indians still have complete faith in their political system....

8. on the other hand, indians have a great deal of respect for their military......it seems like one can criticize any political entity, but people will not tolerate criticism of the military.....

but, before pakistanis, on this site, lose heart, and indians get too inflated, there is one important area (infact the most important area), where pakistanis are head and shoulders above indians -----

we are far better looking.....and as my hero pamela anderson said, looks is all that counts.......as atif2 once said, on this site, americans have elected all kinds of idiots to the post of presidency, but have they ever electd anyone who looks like a baboon's butt......imran khan maybe no manmohan singh......but he is better looking......and benazir maybe no indira gandhi.....but once again, better looking......even nawaz sharif is better looking....

i always knew we were better looking.....but i didn't quite realize how much better looking, until i landed there......a pakistani in tamil nadu is like a norweigian in karachi.....i.e. he stands out......i had air hostesses and software engineers and female ad executives staring at me, as if i were brad pitt.....something i am not used to, and rather enjoyed, as in north america, i used to do most of the staring.....

so, i would like to say to our indian colleagues on this site: enjoy your software millions, and don't hate us because we are beautiful......

#81 Posted by bulleya,

......a pakistani in tamil nadu is like a norweigian in karachi....

Are you saying bulleya saheb, that hamidm2's theory of Grandpa Gopinath is false, or that perhaps Gopinath had a Norwegian second wife from which union we all come from?

#81 Posted by bulleya
After writing this post, do you still consider yourself to be a mature person?

You don't have to go to India to write this post and I seriously doubt that you have ever been to India. Let me know which city were you in and let me and some Indians quiz you about that city.

You don't expect a fifty years old talking about looks. I hope you are not gay but you sure appear to be!

Re: # 79

ahmedmadani sahib

whatsup? Parosi ka bhee haq hotha hai, neighbors have rights also. A wise man once said "keep your neighbors happy and u will be happy".

Re: # 81

{we are far better looking}

bulleya

Shakespere wisely said "beauty lies in the eye of the beholder". And then we also know that beauty is skin deep.

{and as my hero pamela anderson}

Be honest, Pam is not all that great looking but she sure has great looking racks, and gives an awesome Xjob.

{as atif2 once said, on this site, americans have elected all kinds of idiots to the post of presidency, but have they ever electd anyone who looks like a baboon's butt}

Ummmm, GW Bush, R Nixon both resembled their neandethral ancestors.

Maybe its the color of the skin that atif2 and u seem to be so impressed with. Goray rang da zamana hai....

No Indian worth his salt can with authority can say that he/she knew/saw all of India. If one can't say of one's home state, leave alone saying abt the whole of India.

India has peoples of different races & leave alone Pakistanis, Indians call fellow Indians as monkeys.

We have negroids, australoids, mongoloids and caucasian-types. Generalising that "Indians" are not good looking than Pakistanis is wrong. Once u cross Jalpaiguri in North Bengal, u see a greater percentage of mongoloids. If u cross Mt. Abu, u see - including herdsmen - u see central asian types. If u cross Jammu, u see Kashmiri types. U go to Andamans, u have an assortment of negroid races. Cross, Vidhyas, u see australoids. Again u have a super mix of races in each and every region/province. Generalsing abt Indians is wrong and wrong.

I know for sure that not all Pakistanis look like Imran Khan. However, in relative terms you have a higher percentage of 'tall, fairer ppl'.

VRV

You are giving a serious answer to tripe that deserves only hoots of laughter. Romair/bulleya is displaying an all-too-common Pakistani pathology by hallucinating about his alleged superior TFTA good looks. He has been doing this on Chowk for the better part of a decade. Treat it with the derision it deserves.

Romair sahib,

(we are far better looking.....)

And of course there is the little matter of bhindis .....

VRV sahib,

Jokes apart on an average Pakis are taller, fairer and better looking than us there is no question about that.

Regards

#88 Posted by majumdar,

May I draw your attention to #82?

Perhaps you have an answer before hamidm2 gets here :)

bulleye #81 It is a pity that you had to add that stupid bit on "looks" at the end of your post, thus causing attention to be diverted to that, rather than your more substantive comments on India. While you are probably right on those generalizations, generalizations are not very intresting. Why not write a travelogue of some kind on your visit to India - something more human than vague generalities about Indians being on a "high"?

zeemax/majumdar/rf76#: ...actuallly the grandpa gopinath theory is correct.......pakistan is actually north india plus south afghanistan.....south india being the other part.....

here is a theory i am researching.....the more south a person goes in south asia, the more intelligent and literate the people become......and the more north one goes, the more good-looking they become.....

....pakistanis (everyone in punjab, sind and kashmir) and north indians are, generally, the same dna, same genes, basically the same people......that, combined with the mixture of the even better good looks from afghanistan, maybe has given us somewhat of an edge even over the north indians; though it may lowered our IQs....

now, some people may ask for scientific proof for my theories.......they may want to discard it (though i have never figured out why north indians are never offended when i say south indians are more intelligent, while south indians are offended with i state that north indians are better looking.....perhaps it proves looks are more important than intelligence)......

anyways, i have done an analysis of the hindi movie actors and actresses - a profession where looks are the basic ingredient.....turns out nearly every good looking one traces his/her roots back to the areas of pakistan (nwfp, punjab).......hmm.....

zeemax/majumdar/rf76#: ...actuallly the grandpa gopinath theory is correct.......pakistan is actually north india plus south afghanistan.....south india being the other part.....

here is a theory i am researching.....the more south a person goes in south asia, the more intelligent and literate the people become......and the more north one goes, the more good-looking they become.....

....pakistanis (everyone in punjab, sind and kashmir) and north indians are, generally, the same dna, same genes, basically the same people......that, combined with the mixture of the even better good looks from afghanistan, maybe has given us somewhat of an edge even over the north indians; though it may lowered our IQs....

now, some people may ask for scientific proof for my theories.......they may want to discard it (though i have never figured out why north indians are never offended when i say south indians are more intelligent, while south indians are offended with i state that north indians are better looking.....perhaps it proves looks are more important than intelligence)......

anyways, i have done an analysis of the hindi movie actors and actresses - a profession where looks are the basic ingredient.....turns out nearly every good looking one traces his/her roots back to the areas of pakistan (nwfp, punjab).......hmm.....

HP #59 It is not a question of being for or against political parties. The Restoration of the Judiciary represents restoration of the rule of law. And the rule of law means freedom. Because without the rule of law, might is right and you have dictatorship and all its accompanying evils. And if you have dictatorship, it does not matter who the dictator is - musharraf or nawaz sharif or mullah omar.

Through their personal courage and sacrifices, the lawyers led by the Chief Justice and the scores of other judges, have provided Pakistanis with a unique opportunity to attain this freedom.

Musharraf has been removed from his uniform and is increasingly an object of scorn. The military is giving clear signals that it is willing to "go back to the barracks" rather than acting as an occupying force. Freedom is within the reach of the Pakistani people.

But for this the political parties have to rise above "politics as usual" and see this as a common struggle. The media has to be strong. If this opportunity is lost, future generations of Pakistanis will rightfully curse us all for having failed.

#72 Posted by anil on January 25, 2008 4:22:49 pm


If you had watched Farenheit 911, you may recall the scene when Talebans were hosted in the White House.


yes. I have personally seen afghans who were almost definitely taliban at dulles airport...before 9/11...this doesn't mean diddly squat. The gas pipeline through a'stan and pureland has a snowball's chance in hell of materializing...

the pakis are just in a circle jerk in their echo chamber of self-delusion...

HAHAHAHA...this is hilarious...after telling us, post 9/11, that kashmir was now going to become pakiland because pakiland would become a superpower with uncle sam's wind in her sails, captain clueless has gone beyond clutching at straws...he's now clutching at t-shirts with paki flags...

bulleye: we all missed your stupidity. :-)

so, you stood out like brad pitt in india. wow!! Thanks for providing comic relief.

Pakis....you can bury some computing time on India's supercomputer to cook your books like you did the last time..you know..when you boosted the wheat production numbers to boost the GDP numbers..

of course, you pakis couldn't program your way out of a paper bag so I'm sure some of the indians capt clueless met in india will help..

WB to conduct fresh review of Pak economy

World Bank in its recent report Global Economic Prospects 2008 has highlighted that Pakistan is to miss its annual GDP growth target of 7.2 percent and growth to be around 6.5 percent by the end of current fiscal 2007-08.

- the hindi movie actor/actresse theory (i am considering all of punjab and kashmir as, "pakistani areas" for the sake of argument)

- prithvi raj kapoor and complete family (pathans from peshawar)
- dilip kumar (hindko speaker from peshawar)
- sunil dutt and son sanjay dutt (from jehlum, punjab, pakista