Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis

Re: # 78

to import land cruisers from japan, dates from saudi, and call girls from uzbekistan .....

Re: # 73

GT,

" have a feeling that attitudes like this is perpetuating a fundamentalist backlash which the elites in Pakistan are choosing to ignore" .....

..... i agree with you and that is why i would like the unwashed masses to have free access to cheap country liquor and low-grade charas .......

........we did not have this fundamentalist problem when i was growing up .... the only problem was stepping over drunkards lying on the sidewalk in front of bars on frere street in karachi, and the charsis sprawled on sidewalks outside government sponsored opium dens near the rawalpindi railway staion .....

....people have been predicting the demise of musharraf, for a year, and each time he has survived......he has nine lives......the question is whether he has used up all nine or just eight.......

....people need to remember, even in the last election, which were rigged and were held directly under the army, the ruling party could barely get enough votes to form the govt.......they had to break off parties and what not......and at that time, musharraf was quite popular....

now, the whole tide is against him.....even the retired generals are against him.....maulvis are against him.....secularists are against him......ppp votebank and pml votebank is against him......judiciary and media are against him......

and the ultimate criteria of a leader's demise - hamidm mian is supporting him.......the moment this happens, it is a clear indication the leader and his party have had it.....it is quite similar to hamidm mian's support for bush......

what will musharraf do now.......if he doesn't win, he could get impeached......and then the supreme court could try him in an open and shut case of coup (treason), which carries the death penalty......

i think it is time for musharraf to negotiate a deal and leave for michigan....his son is in the usa.....both his brothers are in the usa (and europe)......other than his daughter, his whole family is there......he could take her family with him........

the guy is very popular in the usa.....he could go on the lecture circuit at $20,000 - $30,000 a pop......go on the talk shows as a terrorism expert at another few thousand a pop...and then join a think tank for a while.....after which he could write a book for a million dollar fee.....

not equal to being the dictator of a third world country....but not bad either.....

... I mean for your single cell brain, what does Pakistan need money for? Please be specific. Thanks!

#76 Posted by hamidm2,

Begging bowl for what?

Re: # 71

zeemax ji,

.... if shahbaz sharif ever becomes the pm of pakistan (which, i hope he does) he will be in the whitehouse before he moves into the pm-house ..... that is the way the khatai crumbles .... i don't know about nawaz sharif - i think he has been brainwashed by the saudis .... so if he besomes pm his first visit will be to riyadh ..... in either case, both of them will land at the airport with a begging bowl ........

#69 Posted by Dash_Dot,

Yes tumbrils for the munafiqs over here, but guillotines for the murtids.

in musharraf we trust ! ...everyone is a fool

in pakistan the only people who know what is going on are the punters on the karachi stock exchage (or racecourse) ....... and they are putting their money on musharraf ..... who knows better than the bohras, khojas and memons with silly named like bandookwala, dabawala and fadalbhoy .......

KARACHI: The local capital market witnessed another day of aggressive buying on Thursday, pushing the KSE-100 Index by 167 points to 14283 level.Investors’ interest kept the market in the positive territory the entire day right from the opening of the session.

ylh:

Thanks for this informative write-up. Without mentioning it explicitly, you manage very well to illustrate the spectre of the army and US hanging over the post-election scenario. Worrisome yes, but as you say elections have to go through with the warts of rigging and what not. It is a gradual process and pessimism is the worst enemy of Pakistanis as a nation.

There are a lot of things to be done. Nazar H. Khan sahib (in # 12) has boiled it down to two points: A- Role of religion in State. B- Provincial Autonomy Vs Strong Centre. You have touched on A mainly (though for me B. should be of a higher priority), so let me try to illuminate the problem from a micro perspective using an example from Pakistan. Let me understand (partially) the role of religion in State.

A State is a coercive institution with the power to create and enforce laws which are not agreeable to ALL people in a society. In Pakistan, as in other countries, not everyone has access to running the state. Those who have access would like, as everywhere else, to restrict access as much as possible. Better still, it would be nice if the very "question" of access is not raised. How is it done?

The father of a friend of mine is a well to do business-man in Karachi. His garment factory is located in the outskirt of Karachi. His friends also have factories and ware-houses in the same location (compound?). Some time back they collectively built a large prayer hall and made prayers compulsory for the workers. "Bad behavior" is defined in terms of religion (rightly or wrongly, i.e. no drinking on premises or at home a la Henry Ford?). Supervisors report on both work and domestic behavior. There are no unions.

The compound has an exclusive walled section with a "club" only for the owners. It has two tennis courts and an indoor gym with squash courts. Last year they equipped their club with a bar. My friend dislikes his father's drinking habits as he tends to get "drunk" with his friends. His father genuinely does not understand the "hypocrisy" involved, for he believes that the workers get what "they want" and he and his buddies "do what they want".

..... I have a feeling that attitudes like this is perpetuating a fundamentalist backlash which the elites in Pakistan are choosing to ignore.

Just my (probably wrong) take on affairs.

hamidm:

I did not say hosni was more successful, just more committed in his fight against islamists. Whether musharraf is more or less successful is also more doubtful; I think that he will be if he decides to quit voluntarily at this juncture and retires to Boston.

#66 Posted by dost_mittar,

Whatever immediate political dispensation emerges next week, will be immaterial. Hamidm is a fool. That dispensation if it is with any elements (or remnants) of musharraf will be temporary, and another will emerge which will be permanent. And that dispensation will be more Islam, not less. That is clear. Even Shahbaz Sharif was saying in his rally the other day that the Islamic State envisaged in the constitution will be implemented. He knows very well which way the tide is flowing.

So, that means an end to cooperation in WOT. The implications? US will stop military assistance, perhaps even spare-parts for the hardware.

Re the aid, it goes to the army coffers anyway and those few billions can be funded from the budget, not painlessly, but they can.

Re the spare parts, Pak can do without them. After all, who are these to fight anyway? India? No more because India is no longer an enemy of Pak army after it has compromised to place Kashmir issue in the cold-storage. The Jihadis will deal with Kashmir who don't need any spare parts.

It's all feasible. And the people who count in Pakistan know that's the only way to keep Pakistan from Balkanizing.

Re: # 66

dost_mittar ji,

"Hosni has been fighting islamists all his life " .... oh really? ... and what does he have to show for it? .... the muslim brotherhood is stronger than ever with 20% of the seats in parliament, the mullahs of al-azhar are silly silly fatwas every other month, women without hijab have become a minority in cairo, 'secular' opposition is non-existent and nobody knows what is going to happen after hosni .........

..... our hosni is much much smarter and will do better in the long run ..... he let the mullahs run two provinces for five years and i doubt the people will ever vote for them again and he gave the secular politicians enough rope to hang themselves with - and they will .......

sheik rashid zindabad !
javed hashmi zindabad ! (in case he beats sheikh rashid)

Re: # 65 zeemax you donot hear the guillotines...but tumbrils yes.....just being a tad bit pedantic

Re: # 59

naah! hamidm2 my agreeing with you or not is not the main issue here....but whethere the zeemaxs and urstrulys of this world will accept the outcome (in this case either of the two) or whether the Mantos and Tahmed-sirs of this world are willing to accept the otucome which is not to their liking.

In the meantime enjoy the boot-polish. Are also giving up the slice of lemon? IF yes, then enjoy the boot-polish enven more!

Re: # 63

hazrat tahmed,

.... i do not support musharraf - i am just a realist ...... if they (i don't know who) kick him out, i will be a happy man and will throw my support behind whoever replaces him - nawaz sharif, zardari, altaph hussain, bilawal ...... really, anyone uloo ka patha who shaves his beard and not his pubic hair is fine by me ...... like i have said before, i am a simple minded person with simple criteria ...


hosni musharraf zindabad !

hamidm:

"hosni musharraf zindabad"

I am surprised you say that. Musharraf is no Hosni Mubarak. Hosni has been fighting islamists all his life and not after a call to attention by uncle sam; in fact, his predecessors Anwar Sadaat and Nasser had been fightin these guys for more than fifty years. Moreover, unlike Musharraf, Hosni has not been hunting with the hounds and running with the hares, nor has he been training Hamaz or Hizbullah fedayeen to create mayhem in Israel. He cannot be compared even to the house of sauds who, despite their sponsorship of wahabi islam in the rest of the world, have never been ambivalent about eliminating al qaeda from their soil; their secret service hunts down fellow al qaeda saudis instead of making secret deals with them.
In defence of Musharraf, I would say that he most likely believes that he is doing all this in the best interests of Pakistan in addition, of course, to his own best interests.

I agree with your prediction but I am not sure if the civil society will accept a continuation of Musharraf, non-restoration of the judiciary and continuing the increasing interjection of the Americans in the so called WOT.