Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis

anil #: if he finds a Pakistani way also"

....could you explain to us pakistanis, what exactly the pakistani way to democracy happens to be......since you seem to have it figured out.......

", (PML-Q + MQM): 75 - 130....This is very close to PPP, and is the only electoral math that counts besides PPP's."

mqm has 17 seats right now......unless there is rigging, they are not going to go beyond this, and may reduce.....usually there are around 14 seats that they never lose......

pakistan asembly has 342 seats.....in 2002, pml-q had around 118 seats and mma has around 63 seats.....pml-q had the govt and mma was the leader of the opposition.......these are the seats that are up for grabs.....

despite the rigging, ppp got the highest no. of votes.....pml-n had only 19 or so seats......and anp was totally wiped out.....

there is no way, in any independent elections, pml-n and anp are going to get such low numbers.....and the seats for ppp will go up also.....

the biggest loser will be mma.....in the previous elections, they have barely been able to get 3-5 seats.....they went from 3-5 to over 60!, in this election, primarily because of the usa's gwot.......thereby proving the theory that the more usa bombs a place, the more theocratically religious its politics become......hopefully, someday, the naive americans will figure this out......though by judging by your and hamidm mian's comments i am not betting on it.....

mma could have won even bigger this time, had jui(f) not done deals with the govt, and had continued to, vocally, oppose gwot in afghanistan.......this led its other main partner - ji - to break the mma and not participate in the elections......

so now the stage is set for a traditional power of nwfp - the secular anp - to win back its seats......so mma could lose, in a fair elections, theoretically, back to its traditional 5 seats.......as it is now just the jui....anyways, i think in a fair election mma lose 40 or more seats.....these going to anp, ppp and pml-n.......

pml-q will lose a huge chunk of its 115 or so seats, if there are fair elections......surveys put they at 12% of teh vote.......last time they had around 29%......this would mean a 2/3rd or more loss of seats....i.e. losing 75 to 80 seats......primairly to pml-n and pml-q......

the national alliance, which rules sind had 16 seats.....it will be decimated by ppp and will disappear.......

so, your math (and the author's math) is off by quite a bit.....if one looks at the recent surveys.......how can pml-q win 65-95 seats, if their votebase is only 12% and pml-n is at 24%?......what surveys are being used for such predictions........

anyways, for those who are obsessed with a secular pakistan and are anti-mullah, this is about as good an opportunity as they are going to get.......ppp, pml-n, anp and mqm are the status quo pakistani parties......ppp will make gains, pml-n will make major gains (perhaps tripling its seats) and anp will get back all its seats........

mma could get decimated......as will the more conservative pml-q.......

assuming elections are fair......and then musharraf is toast.......on the other hand, if musharraf massively rigs, then pakistan is toast.......so you may want to re-align your loyalties......unless of course, you want to see pakistan slowly be strangled between america's gwot and musharraf......in which case you should support musharraf.....

americans would be well-advised to move musharraf out now......otherwise pakistan will be radicalized.....according to surveys, the more secular and mainstream ppp + pml-n + anp have 65% or so of the vote........that is an outright clear majority in seats.....pml-q + mma + mqm has around 20-25%.......in addition, surveys are indicating that 75-80% want musharraf to leave.......not just unpopular, but to leave all together.......even churchill was of no use to britain beyond 8 years or so........musharraf did very well for 3 years.....ok for 4 more and terrible for the past year or so.......

in a fair election, it is no contest.......

hamdim mian/dost-mittar #: "hamidm:

Please don't come to Canada; we love our state sponsored medicare too much for your taste."

as a desi canadian, i would like to second that......the last thing a peaceful canada needs is bush-supporters coming through its borders....

in addition, canada has more oil reserves than saudi arabia......and americans and oil together, tend to result in violence......

Yasser:

You forecast:

"PPP: 100-135 seats in the National Assembly.

PML-Q: 65- 95 seats in the National Assembly.

MQM: 10-25 seats in the National Assembly. "

You have also said that PML-Q and MQM are Musharraff to Pro Musharraff Parties.

Therefore, (PML-Q + MQM): 75 - 130

This is very close to PPP, and is the only electoral math that counts besides PPP's.

It almosts makes me to rush into two judgments : (a) Musharraff saw it also in Nov imposed emergency, and said he does not care BB or not BB; (b) many hands on various triggers may be involved to bump off BB. Hosing off of the evidence may not have been that innocently done, as Musharraff said.

Let us also accept the fact that elections, everywhere, touched, fudged and played.

Timing with emotion and other trends - a la Britain, India; Gerimandering, Hanging Chads, Florida and the U.S. Supreme Court, and something new called Super Delegates - a la USofA, are just a few examples.

Therefore, please do not put Musharraff down too much, or shame him as destroyer of democracy if he finds a Pakistani way also, and in end show two paths to Zardari to choose one to Dubai and other to jails.

Your own numbers are making this point, in fact very strongly.

Musharraff may go down in Pakistani history to be man who gave democracy to Pakistan. If your forecast of the outcome of free and fair election is true then accept the scenario as it gets played out.

Hamidm Sahib,

I am back in your camp for Musharraff. Yasser really cleared my cob webs. Then reality is only a few days away.

Yasser,
Who are these PML-Q guys?
Do you think ANP can be bought - Indian style - into PML-Q + MQM + ANP coalition?

As part of bargain, ANP being given a free go to take on Talibs in their backyard, as Hamidm Sahib suggested?

This general is a good man, Hamidm Sahib. Tahmed Sahib will come around too. Good possibilitty is that you may not have to spend your retirement in Michigan and talibs may not use your retirement home to enjoy in Islamabad.

I was almost worried that you may have to seek domestic job from the talibs (with minor variance to kite runner), post retirement to live and work in your dream retirement home all paid for from your post retirement money legally earned in the U.S.

hamidm:

Please don't come to Canada; we love our state sponsored medicare too much for your taste.

zee saheb:

...and could you please tell me what is immoral about tree toad? since I have his morality, I should know.

zeemax#85:

That was a talib and not an economist speaking!

Pakistan, though not its army, can probably withstand military sanctions by the US. But economic sanctions could be quite painful, esp. if Pakistan is declared a terrorist state. Pakistani economy and the lifestyle of the Pakistani elite is very much dependent upon the external sector, both aid and remittances. Yes, Pakistan can withstand sanctions but not without considerable pain.

Re: # 127
"But the breakup of this federation is not the end of the world. IF the "principles of Jinnah" (PoJ) as you have often described in detail, are actually used as the basis of a new beginning and a liberated and democratic Republic is formed east of Indus, it would be a price well worth paying".

In other words, whereas Punjab would rather screw the entire nation, if the break up become unavoidable, it will settle for just screwing Sindh for the rest of history.

"bhaagte bhooth ki langoTi hi sahi...".

Thanks, but no thanks. If there is balkanization, there will be two republics east of Indus.

Nice try, though (shaking my head).

Re: # 135


That was a great reply from the Sunni Path.

I hope they have answers to all the questions about idolators and how to interact with them in the modern world!!

hurricane: hamidm needs you in his misery. go join him in dreaming about how the world is in awe of musharraf's incredible personality and doesnt see him for the lying scum that he is.

hamidm: I know it is reality is hard to take - but rest assured I am not exaggerating. You have obviously not been reading newspapers recently on demonstrations and resolutions passed by the US Lawyers association, or awards given by Harvard University and Human Rights Societies in Asia. I assume that Kazoo, Mich or whereever you are has more important stuff to show on its newspapers front pages, things like its obsolete industries.

I also know it is hard to imagine how the world could fail to be impressed by pakistani babus like mush - after all, these are the same pakistani babus who still cant get how the world could get excited over a (shudder!!) loin-cloth wearing gandhi while not giving two hoots about the impeccable english-like babu MAJ. But that is reality, chum. If you still dont get it in your middle age, you never will I guess.

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"These lawyers have inspired the whole world with their actions "

chaccha ji,

kiss kay payroll per hain aap?

Or are you enjoying daily walks with Johnny Walker?

Please become sane before we are forced to commit you to a sanitarium.

Re: # 132

tahmed,

"These lawyers have inspired the whole world with their actions "

.... enough! ...... now you are really stretching it ..

#111 hamidm: Whether the lawyers you have run into sit on rickety chairs and pick their noses is irrelevant - unless you were planning to take them out on a date when you met them. What is relevant is 1. The need to restore the Rule of Law and the Pakisan Constitution (which has been treated as a joke by Musharraf), and 2. The fact that the lawyers have put the idea of the Rule of Law as a key agenda item in Pakistan politics.

And far from being realistic (as you patronize yourself into thinking), you are merely misleading yourself with respect to what is in your own best interests when you continue to ignore the importance of having a proper constitution (as I pointed out below too).

As the Chinese premier who switched China from communist ideology to capitalism (which led to 10-15% growth rates past two decades) said: Who cares if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice? So you want to be realistic? Then start looking beyond your tender physical repulsions, and leave it to the wives of these lawyers to worry about their physical attractiveness. These lawyers have inspired the whole world with their actions - not the least among them being the US lawyer community (and rest assured, US lawyers are neither romantic nor stupid). Only dumb military-babus of Pakistan think they are impressing anyone other than themselves with their exalted personalities and perfect Colonel Blimp-style english.

#71 Posted by zeemax on February 14, 2008 7:17:53 am


US will stop military assistance, perhaps even spare-parts for the hardware.


hey..the f-16s and other military equipment is only being used to whack pakis...so no spare parts may be a good thing for abdul paki...

Re: # 123 zee

Man, you are such a kiss-a##...:) that too to hanoods like GT and Kaal and a bunch of other tree-toads... they feed you sweet cr@p and you gobble up everything as if it's manna from allah... How can you forget "Muhn mein ram, Bugal mein Chhuri"? :)