Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis

While both these parties have not gone so far as to use the word "secular" which is considered a bad word by some in Pakistan, they have spoken of equal rights, impartiality and equal opportunity which is good enough.

YOur imaginary friends are the straws you're clutching at...

(flying pigs icon)...

As long as the opportunistic and corrupt man does not come into any position of power, I'm fine with the elections.

p.s. I'm talking about the CJ here

Manto mian,

The first agenda of the patriotic parties of Pak- PPP, PMLN, MQM and ANP shud be to boot out Mush. Hope these parties get a huge majority in NA as well as PAs and use their majority immediately to impeach Mush and prosecute him for treason. If they can do so, they wud probably end the spectre of army rule for ever.

The rest as Ahmedmadani sahib is lafangeybaazi.

Btw, I hope PML-N emerges as the largest party, it has a good pro-business agenda, has little feudal-piri baggage and I find NS quite cute.

Regards

Sorry forgot to add: Restore SC asap.

Regards

Dear Manto:

Based on your analysis, I am not very optimistic about the long-term prospects for democracy in Pakistan.

If the PPP forms the govt., it could be headed by Asif Zardari, with his reputation of Mr. ten percent (or is it 30 percent) intact. This would be the surest way to discredit politicians and the people will be clamouring for the army rule sooner than anyone expects.

If it is a PPP-PML (N) coalition, it may have the same problem if headed by Zardari. In addition, they would be fighting each other on Musharraf, with Nawaz insisting on his removal.

If it is a PPP-PML(Q) coalition, it may be the best for democracy, but this would be the continuation of the hated pro-US policies in the tribal regions and the terrible prospects of a civil war.

Thanks for the article Manto.

The seat estimate you give appears to be your personal gut feel, which may even be correct given the scenario (by bulleya?) of anti-pml(n) rigging in favour of pml(q), but otherwise there's nothing to suggest such an outcome.

An accurate estimate based on seat-by-seat comparisons of relative strength of candidates from 267 out 0f 272 NA constituencies was published by pkpolitics.com and available on its website in pdf form as well as pie charts. This was also reproduced by me in 'Connect' on UP. A similar forecast is also being put forth by most analysts in the media:

PML (N) - 79
PPP - 77
PML (Q) - 44
Ind - 23
MQM - 19
MMA - 12
ANP - 5
PML (F) - 4
PPP (S) - 2
Misc. - 2

Given the above scenario, a PPP/PML-N coalition is clear which along with independents can form 2/3rd majority to restore the constitution, provided HOWEVER that the lawyer's movement has indeed succeeded in bringing about a fundamental change in the determination to end the status quo in maintenance of the troika. If not, then a PPP/PML-Q coalition will form the govt in the center - and the rest including boycotters will take the agitation route.

As PPP's history after ZAB indicates, it has always chosen to participate in continuation of the preceding martial regimes' policies rather than confront. Benazir was only able to form government in 1988 in return for guaranteeing continuation of Afghan Policy by handing over the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to the Army's proxy President Ghulam Ishaq's nominees. Her later terms also were full of compromises to Army interests on both the interior as well as foreign policy fronts.

This time around the continuation required is the participation in WOT which is the key issue which PPP's deal with musharraf would have also ensured. Whether Benazir's removal from the scene has changed anything in the PPP's survival tactics, will be clear in another week.

Zee sahib,

(If not, then a PPP/PML-Q coalition will form the govt in the center - and the rest including boycotters will take the agitation route.)

May not be a bad thing for NS. A PPP-PMLQ wud defo be a big pro-WOT alliance which means that if things go bad in NWFP, PML-N wud be the biggest beneficiary in the next election 2-3 years down the line.

Regards

#7 Posted by majumdar,

True. Sharifs are making moves for the next elections, not for this one such as the alliance with the civil movement. These ones will have little credibility anyway in the public eye and any government formed is not likely to survive for more than a few months. The Sharifs always play for an outright 2/3rd mandate, not for coalitions.

re: Mantolives

Manto, Pakistan is a highly polarized nation. The politics of Pakistan have used up all the space for a potential accomodation for a compromise. The potential for violence is papable and cannot be underestimated. The real issue is not a free and fair elections, but the public perceptions about the elections.

If PML-Q wins; PPP will agiate because it will be seen as the confirmation of rigging and election fraud, which PPP has been warning about. If PPP wins, PML-Q will not accept that verdict and so, we risk an anullment of the popular vote. Before we even get to your analysis, Pakistan has to survive the post-election period, when the reactions to the results will start to gel. Musharraf will prefer a minority government in power or even a hung, gird-locked parliament, because that would secure him from a threat of an impeachment vote and importantly, allow him to "horse-trade" and play a divide and conquer game with the next parliament.

The simple math is that 24 hours before the election, all campaign activity will stop. On election day, the polls will be open from 8 am to 5 pm. After which, the polls be counted on the premise of the polling stations in the presence of "polling-agents" - members of political parties to make sure that all is fair. The results should be known by the midnight of Feb. 18 but these will be considered as "unofficial" till the Election Commission certifies these results and the final certified results will take another 15-20 days.

This is the period that Pakistan has to live through - 3 weeeks after the elections - and which is the real danger-zone. If the elections results from the polling stations, already known, do not match the certified results from Islamabad, there is very high chance of wide-spread riots in Pakistan, because this will suggest a case of fraud.

The army will, then, have to decide and act. The army cannot allow the situation to get out of control and it does not want a possible urban warfare on the streets of Pakistan, while it deals with a full blown insurgency in FATA. Pay close attention to the role of the bureaucracy. The army and bureaucracy have governed Pakistan together since 1958 and consider themselves as the "steel ribbon" that holds Pakistan together and in this case, you should anticipate a merger of the institutional interests of the bureaucracy and the military to stem the violence and that implies the probability of the reimposition of martial law to maintain peace or alteast a governor's rule to control the situation - suspension of personal freedoms and constitutional protections.

Your analysis was very informative, but my instincts tell me not to predict anything till after we are out of the danger-zone safely.

...the scenario will be the same.......the army will, first, rig the elctions, for the seats that can go both ways, in favor of pml-q......

after that it will split ppp and pml-n......by favoring one and destroying the other....then it will get the usa to put pressure on ppp......

.....after that it will break off pml-n members and independents, by threatening and bribing them and will have them join the coalition.......in which ppp will be given the lead role, with pml-q following......

.......ppp, with amin fahim, as pm will be asked to form the govt......actually, this is what musharraf wanted many years ago.......he actually offered ppp, with amin fahim as pm, the govt.......bb rejected it, because she wanted to be the pm, i think......so the pml-q was formed......

don't underestimate the influence of the army......the pml-q was not formed by musharraf......it was formed by a mere maj. general, on the orders of musharraf......the guy was the head of rangers!!

........if the judiciary is not restored, then regardless of what happens, nothing will change......doesn't matter who comes into power......

there are two key factors:

- can the two largest parties stay united - pml-n and ppp (this is has never happend before)
- can the civil society movement get so large that it takes down the govt. (this has happened before)

musharraf has two things going for him......he has the support of the usa and the economy is still quite good......he has many things against him, though........

zeemax #: i would tend to agree with you on nawaz sharif and pml-n......these guys have, so far, in my opinion, been the most impressive lot.....they seem to, know, now exactly what they want.....there is no dilly-dallying....their agenda is quite clear, and they are not working with hyperboles.....

nawaz sharif seems to have matured quite a lot....he hasn't made a wrong move yet.....and seems to be on the good side of all parties - other than musharraf.......civil society is more comfortable with him then with zardari....

the other important point is that pml-n is now an urban party......all the feudals and pirs jumped ship and joined pml-q.......it has always had good relations with anp, so it has influence in nwfp.......it however has lost its influence in sind and southern punjab as its feudal leaders there are now with pml-q........

i agree it is playing for the next election........

out of the current lot, even though i have always despised zardari and nawaz (i have always supported musharraf over them), i would say following would be the best scenario for pakistan:

pml-n/anp joint govt in the center.......with an alliance with ppp....pml-n runs punjab, anp runs nwfp, ppp runs sind, and most importantly, judiciary is restored......

......shahbaz sharif wins a by-election and becomes the pm.....aitezaz becomes president.....imran khan becomes head of pakistan cricket board.....and pakistan goes on to win the next world cup......in which shoaib akhter bowls a bouncer and knocks out ganguly........

zardari and nawaz become the elder statemsman of their parties......the govt. gives them 1% on every deal, so that they don't blantantly continue their corruption.......

Feroze # 9

`Pakistan is a highly polarized nation.'

Barring PML (Q), between parties, there is much less polarization. PPP, PML(N) & ANP are quite friendly to each other. Even MQM does not go beyond a certain level of animosity towards other parties.

But polarization on two issues remain & will continue to remain unless the Consitution is significantly changed:

A- Role of religion in State.
B- Provincial Autonomy Vs Strong Centre.

Barring PML (Q), all parties agree that Army should get out of politics. If this happens, the rest is achievable.

Civil Society / Lawyers & media are anothe factor in the new positive voices.

So I am optimistic for a change towards better.

NHK

Feroze Khan sahib,

(If PPP wins, PML-Q will not accept that verdict )

That wudn't mean anything becuase PML-Q are strawmen who enjoy no support at least not in urban areas. The real danger is if army throws in its lot with the Q-league.

Romair,

(in which shoaib akhter bowls a bouncer )

Shoaib Akhtar is more likely to be playing Palang Polo with Bollywood actresses than cricket.

Regards

PS: I'm still awaiting for the delimitation bit from you.

Most people believe there will be rigging in Punjab against PML-N while PPP would not be touched.

majumdar #: "PS: I'm still awaiting for the delimitation bit from you."

i didn't catch the question last time....my apologies....

i don't really have infor on delimitations......i believe the census is supposed to be held every ten years, but that doesn't always happen......

the generally accepted ratio, i think, of rural vs urban, based on figures i have seen is 62% vs 38%.....however, there are people who believe that the urban population is, actually, much higher, due to migrations from rural to urban areas.......

#11 Posted by bulleya,

.....shahbaz sharif wins a by-election and becomes the pm.....aitezaz becomes president....

This is the scenario favored by a prominent PPP Punjab central executive committee member I met in Lahore last week.