Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis

anil #: if he finds a Pakistani way also"

....could you explain to us pakistanis, what exactly the pakistani way to democracy happens to be......since you seem to have it figured out.......

", (PML-Q + MQM): 75 - 130....This is very close to PPP, and is the only electoral math that counts besides PPP's."

mqm has 17 seats right now......unless there is rigging, they are not going to go beyond this, and may reduce.....usually there are around 14 seats that they never lose......

pakistan asembly has 342 seats.....in 2002, pml-q had around 118 seats and mma has around 63 seats.....pml-q had the govt and mma was the leader of the opposition.......these are the seats that are up for grabs.....

despite the rigging, ppp got the highest no. of votes.....pml-n had only 19 or so seats......and anp was totally wiped out.....

there is no way, in any independent elections, pml-n and anp are going to get such low numbers.....and the seats for ppp will go up also.....

the biggest loser will be mma.....in the previous elections, they have barely been able to get 3-5 seats.....they went from 3-5 to over 60!, in this election, primarily because of the usa's gwot.......thereby proving the theory that the more usa bombs a place, the more theocratically religious its politics become......hopefully, someday, the naive americans will figure this out......though by judging by your and hamidm mian's comments i am not betting on it.....

mma could have won even bigger this time, had jui(f) not done deals with the govt, and had continued to, vocally, oppose gwot in afghanistan.......this led its other main partner - ji - to break the mma and not participate in the elections......

so now the stage is set for a traditional power of nwfp - the secular anp - to win back its seats......so mma could lose, in a fair elections, theoretically, back to its traditional 5 seats.......as it is now just the jui....anyways, i think in a fair election mma lose 40 or more seats.....these going to anp, ppp and pml-n.......

pml-q will lose a huge chunk of its 115 or so seats, if there are fair elections......surveys put they at 12% of teh vote.......last time they had around 29%......this would mean a 2/3rd or more loss of seats....i.e. losing 75 to 80 seats......primairly to pml-n and pml-q......

the national alliance, which rules sind had 16 seats.....it will be decimated by ppp and will disappear.......

so, your math (and the author's math) is off by quite a bit.....if one looks at the recent surveys.......how can pml-q win 65-95 seats, if their votebase is only 12% and pml-n is at 24%?......what surveys are being used for such predictions........

anyways, for those who are obsessed with a secular pakistan and are anti-mullah, this is about as good an opportunity as they are going to get.......ppp, pml-n, anp and mqm are the status quo pakistani parties......ppp will make gains, pml-n will make major gains (perhaps tripling its seats) and anp will get back all its seats........

mma could get decimated......as will the more conservative pml-q.......

assuming elections are fair......and then musharraf is toast.......on the other hand, if musharraf massively rigs, then pakistan is toast.......so you may want to re-align your loyalties......unless of course, you want to see pakistan slowly be strangled between america's gwot and musharraf......in which case you should support musharraf.....

americans would be well-advised to move musharraf out now......otherwise pakistan will be radicalized.....according to surveys, the more secular and mainstream ppp + pml-n + anp have 65% or so of the vote........that is an outright clear majority in seats.....pml-q + mma + mqm has around 20-25%.......in addition, surveys are indicating that 75-80% want musharraf to leave.......not just unpopular, but to leave all together.......even churchill was of no use to britain beyond 8 years or so........musharraf did very well for 3 years.....ok for 4 more and terrible for the past year or so.......

in a fair election, it is no contest.......

#140/#141 Posted by dost_mittar,

The tree-toad morality was coined by Urstruly and I had asked him the same question, but in response he recited a tongue-twister stating something like the three-toed tree-toad vetoing the two-toed tree-toad !!! So I share your suspense...

Re military/economic sanctions, Pakistan was under BOTH throughout the 90s and yet it not only survived but also built vital infrastructure as well as put its bomb on the table. Consider the following extract:

The 1990 Sanctions

Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan lost its strategic significance and US President refused to certify that Pakistan "did not possess a nuclear explosive device." On 1st October, 1990, Washington suspended all military assistance and new economic aid to Islamabad, under the Pressler Amendment.

The sanctions hurt Pakistan severely. According to an economic survey, the period of the 1990’s was Pakistan's worst decade yet, in economic terms. Pakistan was receiving about $2.5 billion per year in loan/grant assistance from international financial institutions and bilateral donors. The sanctions put a squeeze on loans/grants, causing hardships for Pakistan. The country's external debt accumulated from $22 billion in 1990 to $38 billion by end of 2000. (Pakistan spent an estimated 80% of its annual budget on debt servicing. In 2000 alone, it made interest and principal repayments of about $5 billion to foreign creditors.)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate fell from an average of 6.5% during the 1980s to 4.6% in the 90s, with the rate being even lower (4.2%) in the later half of that decade. The average growth between 1996-97 and 2000-2001 was not more than 3%. Inflation, which had never been a real problem in Pakistan, was in double digits for most of the 90’s. Unemployment almost doubled from around 3 % in the 80s to close to 6% in the 90’s. Investment and growth in industrial development, particularly in manufacturing, showed negative trends.

Poverty emerged as a serious economic and social issue in the 1990’s. The proportion of the poor below the poverty line almost doubled between 1987 and 2000. In 1987-88, 17.3% of the population was below the poverty line and in 1998-99 this figure had risen to 32.6%. The development expenditure fell from 7.2% of GDP during the early 1980’s to around 4.2% during the 90’s. In real terms, development expenditure fell by almost a third from close to 9% of GDP in the early 1980’s to less than 3% of GDP in the late 90’s.

During the Afghan Jehad, US provided military aid to Pakistan to modernize its conventional defence capability. Forty percent of its assistance package was allocated to non-reimbursable credits for military purchases, the third largest program after Israel and Egypt. The remainder of the aid program was devoted to economic assistance. As a result of the financial constraints, which were a natural concomitant of the sanctions, the normal robust training programme of Pakistan’s 620,000 member armed forces (and 513,000 reservists), the world's eighth largest, was adversely affected. Likewise, Pakistan had an increasingly difficult time maintaining its aging fleet of the American, Chinese, British and French equipment.

(http://rieas.gr/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&am p;am p;id=268&Itemid=41)

It would certainly be painful, but not debilitating. You are right about the reliance on external sector, but wrong re stoppage of workers' remittances which won't be affected by any sanctions. Some $6 billion is received just on account of workers remittances through formal channels, plus approx the same amount through informal ones. In 90s this amount was below $ 1 billion via each channel. The core FX reserves after the nuke tests were about $500 million i.e. 10 days imports, while now these are $ 16 billion or import coverage of 7 months even with liberal imports policies. All Pakistan would have to do is to slap on exchange controls and it could easily tide over a year. Two years or more if an Oil facility is granted by Saudia as it did in 1998.

Above of-course does not take into account being declared a 'terrorist state', in which case other preemptive contingency measures could be adopted, such as moving reserves out to BIS, Basle which is legally protected from freezes, and adopting informal channels for remittances.

Hope you get the point now, which is certainly not 'Talib' as you allege !!

Re: # 144 ["... the last thing a peaceful canada needs is bush-supporters coming through its borders....

in addition, canada has more oil reserves than saudi arabia.. ..and americans and oil together, tend to result in violence ..."]

You can bet your precious petit that the Americans are coming.

Canada should have known better than to have showed off its massive oil reserves (in as yet unrecoverable forms)... Now the Big Bad BoggyMan will come and take it.

But When and How? you ask...

Answer: North American Union, target date 2030 (or sooner)

This is how the US dollar, after its been beaten to death, will be retired and replaced by the Amero.

View this 6 minute conspiracy video by Paranoid Productions --volume up

NAU and World Domination ...

http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=vuBo4E77ZXo

Remember: Even paranoids have enemies.

...SR

zeemax:

Thanks for you r post. I think that it proves my point that, although Pakistan can sustain sanctions, they would be quite painful, especially if the US gets real angry and gets it declared a terrorist state (you know how easy it would be to prove this, they won't need any fake documents by Powell at the UN). I guess you know that in that case they would also stop personal remittances and saudis from giving any subsidies.

Your own post suggests that Pakistan was heading towards an economic meltdown and was saved only by the 9/11 transformation.

SR#147:

For once, I think that your crystal ball may be seeing a bit too clearly.
Americans do not need an economic union to get Canadian oil. It's already their's for the asking. They want a secure source of supply and Canada gives them that. Still, Canada may one day support economic union; we gained by NAFTA and may gain through economic union as well, especially since our medicare system gives a significant advantage to employers health premiums.

The bigger attraction for Americans in Canada is our fresh water; this is where the danger lies; America is thirsty for water and we got it aplenty. We won't mind selling our water to them in bottles but they probably would want it a free-flowing form.

Yet another false dawn for the educated pakistanis. They were happy and jubilant when mushy took over. Now they are hoping that mushy will go and zardari will take over. The fact is that every one knows that pakistan is a sinking ship and they should collect as much as possible and get out.

Mr ten percent will become Mr 30 percent. The only sustained and stable growth is for the jihadis as millions are pouring out of the madrassas.

They have got it right, catch them young, educate them and every thing will turn in their favor. By definition a jihadi cannot take part in the elections, their ideal is kalifayet.

No party can come to power in pakistan without the consent of the jihadis.

All the captured jihadis have been released in exchange for the captured soldiers. This is really pathetic for an army, the jihadis have been treated as equals, and a recognition that there is no law in pakistan, it is all negotiated.

Nowadays none of the robbers are caught, none of the kidnappers are caught, because they are all jihadis. In that kind of situation, elections and who so called rules the country are irrelevant, jihadis rule.

#148 Posted by dost_mittar,

Your own post suggests that Pakistan was heading towards an economic meltdown and was saved only by the 9/11

Where did my post suggest anything of the sort?

Again, Dost, you're resorting to 'analysis of headlines approach' rather than 'analysis of facts' approach. This is expected of buffoons like hamidm but certainly not you.

In August 1998, there was a Research Report by ABN Amro forecasting an imminent sovereign default at quarter-end in September. It didn't happen. In October the same bank pointed this time to December. It still didn't happen. In fact it never happened. If you look at the reserves figures of end August 2001 (i.e. just before 9/11), these were close to $2 billion from the 1998 low of $500 million. There was no meltdown in sight.

What 9/11 did was to result in massive reverse capital flight which doubled Pakistan's national savings in 18 months, about which I had written in my last FP article titled "A historic opportunity lost".

9/11 presented a windfall bonanza for Pakistan, not a life saving jacket.

zeemax#151:

Yes, my "analysis" is based on media reports, including second hand analysis by people like Shahid Javed Burki. Frankly, I was surprised that Pak forex reserves had started to go up before 9/11. I suspect that it was perhaps due to the end of the temporary flight of capital that took place following the bara raids initiated by Shaukat Aziz as finance minister.

I hope that you are right but I also hope that Pakistan will not have to face that trial and I think that they won't have to because the Pak leadership will compromise with the Americans, they always do regardless of whatever colour they wear.

#152 Posted by dost_mittar,

Nawaz Sharif didn't in May 1998.

zee:

That was different. US interests were not as directly involved as they are in the WOT. And Nawaz had a good reason because India had already exploded a bomb.

...but I agree, of all politicians, Nawaz is most likely to resist US pressure in the tribal areas, but only up to a point.

further to 154:

Elected leaders do have a built-in excuse that dictators don't, namely public pressure. Nawaz could point out to Clinton how it was impossible for him not to respond to India's bomb and retain his gaddi, the same factor will help him or any elected leader in dealing with the Americans. Their ability to pressure the elected leader will be restricted by his popular mandate, something Musharraf could never claim.

Musharraf the Mathemetician. Obviously this genius never heard about statistical sampling, the normal curve, and other stuff they dont teach at the Kakul School for Crore Commanders and Pakistan Conquerors and Rising Suns (curriculum prepared by Hamidm while sitting in a non-rickety chair and smelling like a rose and wearing starched white shirts and custom-tailored suits from London).

Musharraf hits out at ‘biased’ opinion polls
By Ahmed Hassan (Dawn)

ISLAMABAD, Feb 14: President Pervez Musharraf has rejected opinion surveys conducted by foreign organisations and said opinions of 3,000 people cannot be taken as the opinion of 160 million people of the country.

But wait, there is more from the Rising Sun..

He asked foreign organisations and NGOs, especially those conducting such surveys not to “disturb the peace of this region. You are playing with the peace of the world.”

..or at least with the peaceful stay in illegal power by mush. the genius continues..

He assured that the Feb 18 elections would be free, fair and transparent and said that pre-judging election results raised undue hopes and might result in violence during and after the polls.

..just like the free, fair and transparent destruction of the Supreme Court and the Pakistan Constitution and muzzling of the Media by this scoundrel!!


http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/15/top4.htm

dost_mittar,

Agreed! I was only responding to your assertion carrying quite a bit of finality that:

...the Pak leadership will compromise with the Americans, they always do regardless of whatever colour they wear.

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president musharraf zindabad!
prime minister amin fahim zindabad!
chief minister pervez elahi zindabad! (i can't stand the basta#d, but that doesn't matter)
chief minister asfandyar wali khan zindabad! (my man)
sheikh rashid zindabad! (my main man)
altaph bhai zindabad ! (in case i want to go to karachi)
leader of the opposition nawaz sharif zindabad!

and last but not least,

tahmed zindabad ! (for being persistent in his opposition to musharaf simply based on 'principle' .... we need more people like him instead of scum like me who accept life as it is .... i hope my children grow up like him even if they get slapped in the face all their lives by reality and other such inconvenient things)

bilawal zardari zindabad ! (that was for the 2013 elections)
nawaz sharif zindabad! (again for the 2013 elections)

president mccain zindabad ! ..... bamb, bamb, bamb ..... baammb the taliban !

#156 Posted by tahmed32,

Yeah sure. It was the same International Republican Institute (IRI) poll which placed this moron ahead of BB and NS in popularity in Dec 2006 and he couldn't wait to tell about it in every interview. Now "opinions of 3,000 people cannot be taken as the opinion of 160 million". The twit!