Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis

The real election will start after election. Confused Shriefs sometime call it Churllo election and others want to make AQ president and recover wealth. PPP already confident of rigging. Altaf, the pal bearer of Pakistan's demise, sitting in London criticises rich for sending their children to west while ignoring poors. But one thing is sure, whatever results will be a great point to strat a movement against thug Mushraff. Pakistan will enter into new phase as PPP and ML have little to offer to people. But it will be decade before there will be any big news.

#161 Posted by NangaPir,

And what will be that 'big news' after 'decade'?

... and yes dost_mittar, I forgot to tell you about Shahid Javed Burki. This person is an expert at talking from both sides of his mouth depending on whom he wants to please or displease.

He had been eying the Finance Minister slot through maska paalish of musharraf much before Shaukat Aziz entered the picture and hoodwinked musharraf to get the slot. At that time his articles were all about how Pakistan was going inslovent and how musharraf had rescued it.

He remained mostly silent when Shaukat Aziz was FM but resumed the maska paalsih when he became the PM and the FM slot became vacant again. But, Shaukat Aziz decided to keep the FM portfolio with himself and instead appointed Dr. Salman Shah as Chief Economic Adviser and de-facto FM.

That's when this same Shahid Javed Burki started to criticise Shaukat Aziz's policies such as the liquidity boom, and even started to challenge government statistical figures through his series' of Dawn articles.

If you read his articles as per the above timeline, the pattern will be clear!

zeemax:

I was unaware of the personal angles involved; I presumed that he was merely a professional economist.

hamidm #160: The reality is that you dont need anything from any of these individuals you are hedging all bets by applauding (unless you tell me that you send copies of your applause to these individuals along with a request for a job or at least a plot).

And therefore, you are not being scum (or even street smart like police chief Louis Renault of Casablanca fame) by applauding these individuals - merely silly.

zeemax: What is beginning to become clear is that Musharraf actually believes in many of the stupid things he says - e.g. that women get raped to get visas, that he can edit the national Constitution by simply marking it up to fit his personal needs and then claim that he is following the Constition (as edited by him)!! For 8 years we have had a monkey at the wheel of the ship of state, and no wonder Pakistan is such a mess today!! The good news is that even the military seems to be distancing itself at every opportunity from this individual.

DM sahib,

"Professional" economists who serve as ministers in govts. are seldom free of "personal angles" at least in the sub-continent.

Zee sahib,

In your opinion what use shud the GOP have made of the substantial inflows post 9/11.

Regards

#164 Posted by dost_mittar,

Shaid Javed Burki is no professional economist. He's a typically opportunist world bank type who always chase positions in the Finance Ministry of Pakistan as a rule after retirement as God's gift to humanity.

If you really want honest professional opinions, do read Dr. Kaiser Bengali (the head of a think tank & NGO), Dr. A.R. Kemal (ex-Head of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics and eased out by musharraf), and Dr.Sakib Sherani (current chief economist for ABN Amro Pakistan). These people don't publish in print media but you could perhaps get their papers on the web.

#166 Posted by tahmed32,

tahmed, I have never seen a dictator, any dictator, as cocksure in his stupidity as this guy is. It is quite unbelievable. He's actually convinced everyone loves him and everyone will do as he says, such as when he asked people to beat up a journalist in London when he asked an awkward question.

This arrogance, coupled with sheer ignorance and foolishness, will lead him to a fate worse than Zia. I have no doubt about that.

Zee sahib,

What fate can be worse than Zia's.

Regards

Zee, Dost etc.,

It is extremely difficult to get a precise picture of the Pakistani (and for that matter Indian) economy from official statistics. I do not want to go into the question of economic meltdown following a sanction. What I want to point out here is the problem associated with forecasts based on official statistics. Let me give an example (my figures are based on recollection, but they should not differ in orders of magnitude).

Growth (7.5%) in Pakistan is driven by services (more than 50%) with agriculture contributing around 15%. The "poor" mostly depend on these two sectors. In the 2000s per capita consumption expenditure has grown by 1.5% to 5%. There was an outlier of 12% which reduced poverty head counts substantially (like the one in India under the BJP). Let us forget this figure). Per capita "Investment" therefore grew by a lot. This "forced saving" was primarily driven by (consistent with) inflation. On the other hand, the "poor" do not have access to formal credit and rely mostly on "biradiris" and other informal sources. Credit is required by the poor for both consumption and investment (to cover operating costs). So, given the forced savings which funded the investments of the rich, a question arises as to whether the poor faced a credit squeeze.

If one looks at the agricultural figures, one notices that wheat and sugarcane productions increased significantly while the production of other crops remained stagnant or even declined. If I were to assume (and I do so because I do not have the info) that sugarcane production (which needs good irrigation) and a large proportion of wheat production is carried out by middle and large farmers then it is quite likely that the "poor" did not see as much growth in their consumption as suggested by the aggregate figures. Nevertheless, one has to bear in mind that even the sustenance of constant incomes require credit to tide over crop cycles, so where do the poor get their credit from?

Growth in liquidity in "biradiris" at the village level, I presume, is provided by remittances. Over the last five years or so, Pakistan has been receiving around $5 billion in annual remittances. To understand the magnitude of this figure, note that FDI in Pakistan has crossed $6 billion only in the last year or so. But these are only official figures. One has to get a grasp of unofficial flows to understand whether or not sustained credit will be available to the poor. It is here that one reaches a complete blank.

If the flow of remittances to Pakistan, both official and unofficial, goes down the trend then the poor will be trouble. Institutions which can provide loans to the poor (and formal institutions cannot do it because of marketable collateral) are of utmost importance. It is good to see that PPP has micro-credit as one of its goals (see ylh's article above). But micro-credit has become a buzz-word, implementing effective credit channels to the poor is difficult. One should study the "biradiri" system more carefully and then perhaps build credit systems with credible incentives.

I shall be glad if someone directs me to books/articles which have studied this problem rigorously.

Over the last

#167 Posted by majumdar,

what use shud the GOP have made of the substantial inflows post 9/11.

It should have issued sovereign bonds at around the core inflation rate to absorb the excess liquidity - and used it for rural uplift, intra-provincial roads infrastructure, urban public transport, and long term loans to large scale manufacturing enterprise. It was a Rs.1.5 trillion bonanza, more than last year's entire Federal Budget. Do you see the enormity of the figure?

Instead, they wasted it in retail loans to buy air conditioners using electricity which Pakistan doesn't have, and to buy autos using fuel which Pakistan doesn't have, on roads which can't accommodate them.

Re: # 159 Posted by hamidm2 on February 15, 2008 4:09:05 am

All of them zindabads. What about murdabads? Anyone in particular?

pakistan is not a state but an army with a state.the army is a major stake holder.it stands to gain as long as there is no war as well as no peace with india.

keeping the above premise in mind it will manipulate/rig the elections and make sure that any party which comes to power is manipulated by the army.

presently the army and retired general musharraf are still one party unless there is a change and the army decides to dump musharraf.

however musharraf or no musharraf the army will meddle in paki politics till it is disbanded.

further the punjabi majority in pakistan is hopeless so dont expect any change.in the final summing up the army and punjab are one thing .this will initiate pakistan's balkanisation within next 5 to 10 years.

... to further illustrate the lost opportunity, imagine if the development expenditure was instantly raised from 4-5% of budget to 100%.