Voting For Change

Re: # 408

"pakistan is either a theocracy or a liberal mulsim state.....these are the two political divides in pakistan......and it is obvious that politically, pakistan is, overwhelmingly, a liberal to very liberal muslim psyche, culture and polity.......

it is, historically and culturally, a sufianic muslim society.......it is bulleh shah......"

If Pakistan is bulley shah's Islamic State then would Pakistanis can make this their state preamble?
-
""Masjad dha dey, mandar dha dey, dha dey jo kuchh dhai’n da
Par kissi da dil na dhai’n, Rabb dilaa’n vich rehnda

(Demolish the mosque, demolish the temple and demolish what else you can, But do not break anybody’s heart because God dwells in there.)""

I DOUBT!!!

Over whelming Pakistanis would accept their LAl Masjid Mullah over Bulley Shah when it comes to Islam.

#395 dm: the PML-PPP accord represents a major event that signals an end of musharraf's increasingly miserable tenure as illegal, unpopular, lying, deceiving, self-obsessed ruler. It is in this sense that i said the dice have stopped rolling.

We now of course have a new set of dice starting to roll - namely the PML-PPP victory followed by their accord and how this will play out.So, in this sense the dice never stop rolling..

I dont understand where you think Nawaz changed his stand. He is saying exactly what he has been saying all along - the Chief Justice and the Constitution should be restored. There is some question of how mush leaves - whether he is kicked out and serious charges levied against him by simple court order by a restored Chief Justice, or whether he is impeached by the NA, or whether (most likely) he simply takes off with the loot. But there seems no basis left for thinking that musharraf will be president for more than a few weeks at most.

#401 Posted by bulleya on February 21, 2008 10:34:05 pm


karach stock exchange is up 900 points.....it crossed 15,000......so the economy should keep going....



capt clueless(and col kool aid)

the KSE is an echo chamber of paki self-delusions..even now, the foreign inflows into the paki market are negative...yes...negative...plus there's no paki company that can hold it's own in the world..ala reliance, tata or infosys..not one...zilch..nada...

so the paki stock exchange going up 50% is like the profits of the panwallah going up by 50%...doesn't mean diddly squat...

zeemax/bulleya:

You both make a valid point, the 2002 victory of mma was to some extent rigged, with madrassa graduates treated as degree holders to qualify for the elections.

But I think that we are talking here of the multivariate model. What you say does not necessarily negate what I said, or does it?

bulleya:

"religious parties and what they push - segregation, hasba etc. - has no cultural or historical roots in pakistan."

We are talking here about NWFP and not all of Pakistan, which I believe has a unique fusion of Islam and traditional culture.

Don't misunderstand me, the tradional islam of even nwfp is sufiana where music and dance (male) is an integral part of their culture. Although I have not seen any, I am told that pashto films are some of the raunchiest on the subcontinent.

#406 Posted by dost_mittar,

You're forgetting the boycott factor here. MMA consisted of 5 parties, all of whom boycotted except JUI (F).

But despite the boycott, MMA would still have lost. Primary reason is the election rigging in 2002 which got them all those seats, and the Waziristan/Swat operations when they lost tribal support.

I had posted an in-depth article from Times local correspondent sometime ago who had interviewed Fazlur Rahman as well as his former allies in the tribal belt who considered him a traitor.

dost-mittar #: "What is less obvious to someone like me is why have they been ousted. There can be two possible reasons:"

they have been ousted, because they didn't exist there in the first place.....it is not their ousting that goes against history......it was their rise in the last election that goes against history......and they rose last time, because they were the only ones opposing usa's actions in afghanistan.......

religious parties and what they push - segregation, hasba etc. - has no cultural or historical roots in pakistan.....i am amazed that so many people cannot accept this......just take a look at historical election results......

i think the reason people cannot analyze this correctly, is that the live in the world of black and white......either theocracy or secularism.......so to prove to them that religios parties are out, one has to, first, show them lack of support for religious parties, and then show them support for secularism......if there is no support for secularism, then they automatically conclude that theocracy is powerful in pakistan, regardless of election results, historically......

this is the point i have been trying to explain on this site (and to you, specifically) for about seven years......

pakistan is not a secular state....there is very little support for secularism in pakistan......even the parties that internally support secularism, are afraid to use it openly.......hence you need to take secularism out of the picture.......

pakistan is either a theocracy or a liberal mulsim state.....these are the two political divides in pakistan......and it is obvious that politically, pakistan is, overwhelmingly, a liberal to very liberal muslim psyche, culture and polity.......

it is, historically and culturally, a sufianic muslim society.......it is bulleh shah......it is not ata-turk....nor is it ghazali etc.........

so, pakistan is at its norm right now, politically.......theorcracy is out (mma).......liberal (by mulsim standards) islam is in (pml-n on the conservative side, ppp on the liberal side of this spectrum)........with no openly secular party (perhaps mqm)......

laddu #: "As an idolator I am only concerned whether mullahs"

......as explained earlier, theocracy has no political basis in pakistan......the lal masjid crowd is even more extreme than the political theocrats....hence it has no basis at all.....

lal masjid, obl and what not are all phenomenons that have crept into pakistan from the outside......primarily a product of usa and ussr fighting in afghanistan....these groups have zero cultural and social roots in the country.....

pml-n, nor any other party, in pakistan has no interest in them.....there is no party in pakistan, which states that what obl or lal masjid crowd has done is ok.......not a single party......

so, no one is after the idolators in pakistan.....can you name the last time, an idolator was killed in pakistan.......i can name quite a few momins killed in india......but i cannot name any idolator killed in pakistan.......

.......so all this stuff about lal masjid and obl having domestic political support in pakistan is nonsense......

now, where does the support exist......there is a great deal of support for anyone who fights the usa......this is a foreign affairs issue, not a domestic one........and there was overwhelming opposition the way the lal masjid was attacked.......

this does not mean people supported what lal masjid crowd were doing.......they were obviously criminals......but people did not want them attacked like this.......

nawaz sharif got the vote of people who opposed the way lal masjid was attacked.....i opposed this attack also......however, at no time did he say he supports what lal masjid crowd was doing.......his constituency doesn't support what lal masjid crowd were doing......considering the fact that the cd shoponwers and video shop owners and other shop onwers are the heart of his consituency.....

pml-n is a conservative mainstream party........but not a religious party.....and there are no lal masjid, fazlullah type parties in pakistan.......even from swat, which fazlullah took over, anp won and ppp was second.......

people want americans out, judges back, musharraf out, lal masjid out (but not through violent means), obl out, taliban out (but not through carpet bombing)........

the only militant religios political party in pakistan is sipah-e-sahaba.......they were courted by pml-q......they used to win one seat in jhang......but don't even win that now........

religious parties, what to talk of militantly religious groups/parties have no political base in pakisan......i have been saying this for ages......

mma - 3 seats out of 272
militantly religios groups - 0 seats out of 272

one can believe rhetoric or one can believe the facts......

bulleya#400:

I think that it should be obvious even to a blind person that the religious parties have been routed out in these elections. What is less obvious to someone like me is why have they been ousted. There can be two possible reasons:

EITHER, people do not support the platform for which they voted these parties in the 2002 elections, namely
- islamic welfare state (musawaat)
- oppose Musharraf's cooperation with the US forces in their land
- more enforcement of purdah
- more segregation of sexes, and
- less "kanjarpan" in the name of enlightened islam.

OR, they still believe in those causes but voted against the same people because they did not carry out their promises and proved to be corrupt, hypocritical and supporters of Musharraf.

Take your pick!

My colleague fwded this:

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs10.

The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at Rs10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would now buy at Rs20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to Rs25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell it to him for Rs50."

The villagers squeezed up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then….

..
Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!!!

Welcome to the "Stock" Market!!!!!

laddu mian,

The second group do not play political games. They play soccer with idolator heads!

Re: # 400

"purely punjabi set up at the moment.....

1. winner - pml-n
2. loser - musharraf, mma
3. slight loser - ppp
4. slight winner - anp
5. neutral - pml-q (hodge podge of leaders), mqm "

Bulleya ji,

As an idolator I am only concerned whether mullahs would be still able to pull the strings or not.
It is clear the there are two types of mullahs - First, the "sarkari types" who are ok with Mush's crack down on OBL brand of ISlam and support his "moderation" - the other group oppose the "sarkari types" and support pure Islam undilited by "moderation".
For an idolator the First group is preferrable to the second.
Now, the question is whether the Second group has gain ascendency in political circles or not?

#401 Posted by bulleya,

It's the foreign equity funds piling in who had earlier pulled out. However this is hot money which doesn't do anything for the economy. I would like to see this getting translated into FDI.

karach stock exchange is up 900 points.....it crossed 15,000......so the economy should keep going....

pml-n's main support group is urban shopkeepers and businessmen......

dost-mittar#: pml-n is on the right side of the fence......this election has been a big victory for pml-n....and it has been a big loss for mma.....everyone else has pretty much kept there vote-bank.....

this is how you need to analyze this election......

ppp hasn't gained much.....in fact, as i explained in an earlier post, it has actually lost votes....considering the fact that it had everything against it, in the last election, and still won 80 seats.......this time, with everything in its favor, it won only 87!.......

mmma has gone from 63 to 3......a huge crushing.....even though in a military atmosphere, with usa bombing places, religious parties do well.....it is now back to where it has always been......

pml-q is not a party.....it is a combination of all the big-wigs in pakistan.......it won 6 seats in baluchistan, which it would not have won had the baluchi nationalist parties not boycotted.......and had imran participated (in an alliance with pml-n), he would have taken a few pml-q seats, a few anp seats and maybe an odd ppp seat......and imran voters would have voted for pml-n in alliances...

so the most seats, in a free election (with pre-poll rigging of a sitting govt.) that an alliance of big-wigs can win is around 40.....which is what pml-q has gotten....

so which way is the wind blowing in pakistan?........

it is blowing against islamic parties.....which have had their peak (as i always said on this site).........however, it is not blowing towards the total liberal and secular side of ppp or mqm etc.....(which is also what i have been saying on this site, for a long time)......

the wind has blown from mma to pml-n.......pml-n is a right of center party, which is somewhere in between ppp and mma........it has more of a leaning towards jamaat than towards ppp........

this is what scares the hell out of americans.....they don't want pml-n in power......which is why, i feel, they must be putting extreme amount of pressure and hanging a lot of carrots in front of ppp to support musharraf.....they want a ppp - pml-q - mqm - musharraf alliance......

this is why ppp is not committing totally to ridding musharraf.....i assume......otherwise, what does the ppp have to gain by supporting by musharraf, in any way......

.......pml-n is the republican party of pakistan - conservative with good economic skills, but limited social appeal......ppp is the democrat party of pakistan.......broad social appeal, but limited in other areas.....

people need to keep one thing in mind.....pml-n was actually organized one day before the filing of the papers in the election.......nawaz sharif came picked his team of unknowns, and the elections started......he and his brother were banned......ppp had a gigantic sympathy vote.....however, nawaz swept away the very biggest names of punjabs, with unknowns.......even a cynic like me is having a hard time digesting this defeat of the big feudals and pirs by tinier feudals and pirs......people voted for the issue of judiciary and removal of musharraf when they voted for nawaz.....

the usa has, now, openly stated they are still supporting musharraf........and i am sure they are pressuring ppp to support him........ppp needs to be careful....had it taken the straight stand in favor of judiciary and anti-musharraf, and distanced itself from usa...it would have swept.......

in addition, ppp's educated cadre of leaders consists primarily of lawyers....these leaders may split if ppp doesn't fully support judiciary....

each day the ppp dilly dallys, it loses more and more support in favor of pml-n amongst voters...

nawaz is going to get some independents and will try to break away pml-q.....if and when he can do that, he is fully at the same level as ppp......the only problem he will have is that he is a purely punjabi set up at the moment.....

1. winner - pml-n
2. loser - musharraf, mma
3. slight loser - ppp
4. slight winner - anp
5. neutral - pml-q (hodge podge of leaders), mqm

zee#398:

Okay, this makes more sense; nawaz would be foolish to go for a short-term gain for long term pain.