Voting For Change

#541 Posted by SR,

The technical position is that an illegal and ineffective order was issued by the COAS who is a Grade-22 officer of the executive. This order was confirmed by the Supreme Court which itself did not have the authority to do what the order contained (i.e. suspending and amending the constitution). Given the constitutional provisions, no illegal order may be passed by any functionary of the executive and can be rendered null and void by an officer of a rank above. The immediate rank above COAS is Secretary Defense.

That's the technical position. Other than that, I agree with the other dynamics which you mention.

Re: # 533 zee ["... There's no need to go to the parliament. The parliament/senate would only have been needed if the original order was not illegal and unconstitutional..."]

I wish you were correct. But that is not how it happens in the halls of power in the Islamabad Republic.

If you read the 1973 constitution, even as it was on 11th October, 1999, you will notice an alarming fact. (At least it was alarming to me when I first verified it.) It is a perversity of parliamentary system. It is a scandal of the highest order. It says there plainly in the constitution, that the executive power is vested in the president (not PM)

Article 83, which is re-numbered as Article 90(1) by the Constitution (Eighth Amendment) Act, 1985, section 9 (with effect from November 9, 1985) says the following:

The executive authority of the Federation shall vest in the President and shall be exercised by him, either directly or through officers subordinate to him, in accordance with the Constitution.

Now I am no constitutional lawyer and would stand corrected if someone can point to the relevent clauses that over-ride this, but I have read the constitution with all its convoluted ammendments and schedules, and to my layman's eye nothing was visible that over-rides this.

Yes, the PM shall advise the president and his advice shall be binding upon the president and all that, but still I see a potential legal problem here. These checks on the president work under normal circumstances where the president is a Fazal Elahi Chaudhry or a Rafiq Tarrar. But when the president is a Musharraf or even a Ghulam Ishaq Khan, we have a serious problem.

Even in Fazal Elahi's case Zia had to finally, after two years, remove him and become president himself because of risk of Chaudhry Phagga accepting the clemency petition of ZAB.

So the EXECUTIVE ORDER that you speak of must finally be signed by the president for it to become a legally valid executive order. At least this is how I understand it. I wish some one qualified in Law, perhaps YHL or someone similar, should shed legal light on this matter.

The only quick way to get rid of Musharraf needs to be extra-constitutional. And why not? If he could come in by force, what's wrong about removing him by force? I say this not because of any disrespect for the law, but because the law itself seems inadequate to me.

The stark political reality of today is that even if you are Musharraf's personal best friend, you have no choice but to acknowledge tha fact that his continued presence in office is going to cause further damage. The only reasonable course of action for him, if one is to remind him of his "Pakistan First" mantra, is to step down gracefully. If he does not do that then the country is going to face a serious crisis that could go on for months and months until it is finally resolved by force.

...SR

"...he doesn't want to destroy it just for the sake of his personal office," said an official close to the president.

I'm amazed that this beyghairat has the cheek to suggest this. What did this b'turd do on Nov 3rd if not try to destroy the country for the sake of his personal office?

Ideally, he shouldn't be allowed to leave the country, and given the Urstruly treatment (i.e. hung by a hydraulic crane in the grounds of Jamia Hafsa), but the politicians won't rock the boat too much.

However, I'm sure there'll be death squads out looking for him wherever in the world he finds a hole to hide.

zeemax/bjkumar: Commando Ataturk ben Hosni Mubarak running away with his tail between his legs??? Meanwhile, another bloody bay-zamir finds a zamir..

The man, who rigged 2002 polls, spills the beans

ISLAMABAD: The main wheeler and dealer of the ISI during the 2002 elections, the then Maj-Gen Ehtesham Zamir, now retired, has come out of the closet and admitted his guilt of manipulating the 2002 elections, and has directly blamed Gen Musharraf for ordering so.

Talking to The News, the head of the ISI’s political cell in 2002, admitted manipulating the last elections at the behest of President Musharraf..Looking down back into the memory lane and recalling his blunders which, he admitted, had pushed the country back instead of taking it forward, Zamir feels ashamed of his role and conduct..The former No: 2 of the ISI called for the closure of political cell in the agency, confessing that it was part of the problem due to its involvement in forging unnatural alliances, contrary to public wishes..

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=13159

bjkumar,

Yes the scoundrel is preparing grounds to leave so he's not accused of fleeing suddenly. Below is today's Daily Telegraph article:

Pervez Musharraf 'will exit in days, not months'

By Massoud Ansari in Islamabad
Last Updated: 2:05am GMT 24/02/2008

Pervez Musharraf is considering stepping down as president of Pakistan rather than waiting to be forced out by his victorious opponents, aides have told The Sunday Telegraph.

One close confidante said that the president believed he had run out of options after three of the main parties who triumphed in last week's poll announced they would form a coalition government together, and also pledged to reinstate the country's chief justice and 60 other judges sacked by Mr Musharraf in November.

"He has already started discussing the exit strategy for himself," a close friend said. "I think it is now just a matter of days and not months because he would like to make a graceful exit on a high."

According to senior aides, Mr Musharraf wants to avoid a power struggle with the newly elected parliament, in which his opponents will be close to the two-thirds majority needed to impeach him and remove him from office.

"He may have made many mistakes, but he genuinely tried to build the country and he doesn't want to destroy it just for the sake of his personal office," said an official close to the president.
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Mr Musharraf, who stepped down as head of the army late last year, had called for a harmonious coalition after the defeat of his party - which won just 38 out of 272 national assembly seats in last Sunday's elections - but his political rivals have demanded he go.

Officials said he had considered resigning immediately after the election results were known, but had been persuaded by party loyalists that his sudden departure could precipitate a crisis.

In an article published last week he insisted that he would serve out his five-year presidential term.

Behind the scenes, his staff attempted to broker an agreement with Asif Zardari, who became leader of the main Pakistan People's Party (PPP) following the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto.

Yet despite pressure from America, which has relied on Mr Musharraf's support for its war on terror, Mr Zardari refused to strike a deal.

He declined despite also claiming to have been threatened by Mr Musharraf's allies that the government would revive long-standing corruption charges against him.

"I have seen these jails and this is not something new to me," said Mr Zardari. "I fought all these fake cases instituted against me with courage and never disappointed anyone by asking for a pardon.

"I'm ready to fight it out again, and will never disappoint anyone."

PPP officials said that any deal with Mr Musharraf would have dented the party's public support and it was better to try to govern with the help of the other main parties.

"It doesn't make any sense for us to sink with the dying man," said Nisar Khuhro, a senior PPP leader, referring to Mr Musharraf.

Jamil Soomro, a PPP spokesman, said: "He has betrayed everyone since the very outset and we have no guarantee that he would not betray us once he stabilised his position."

Mr Musharraf's popular support drained away over the past year as he interfered with the independence of the courts, imposed a state of emergency, restricted the media and postponed ­elections.

Shortages of basic foodstuffs and unreliable gas and electricity supplies have left him more vulnerable now than at any time since he seized power in a bloodless coup in October 1999.

A coalition of the anti-Musharraf parties - the PPP, PML(N) and ANP - would govern with 211 MPs, just short of the 228 needed for the two thirds majority that would allow them to launch impeachment proceedings against the president. They could, however, win support from other smaller parties and independent members, which would leave the former general in a precarious position.

If Mr Musharraf decides to dig his heels in, the opposition parties plan to remove his constitutional powers to dissolve the assembly.

"I think his game is over but if he was able to survive for any reason, he would be like a dead fish, sitting and rotting the presidency," said Khwaja Asif, a senior leader of the Pakistan Muslim League.

The frontrunner to take over as prime minister in the new administration is Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the widely respected vice-president of the PPP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/24/wpak124. xml

I wonder how come the following is not being reported by more newspapers. (Sorry if it is already discussed, there are too many interacts here!)

Musharraf to exit in days, not months: Report
24 Feb 2008, 1926 hrs IST,Rashmee Roshan Lall,TNN

SMS NEWS to 58888 for latest updates
LONDON: President Musharraf is contemplating a swift exit from office rather than the ignominy of being forced out by the winning coalition, according to unnamed aides quoted in the British press ( Watch ).

A "close confidante" of the embattled president is quoted in The Sunday Telegraph to say Musharraf now believed he had run out of options and was pondering an exit strategy.

He said, sketching out a notional timeline that will be carefully watched in Western capitals, "I think it is now just a matter of days and not months because he would like to make a graceful exit on a high."

Musharraf is said to be keen to avoid a power-struggle, which may be inevitable considering the newly-elected parliament is chock full of members implacably opposed to him and theoretically capable of cobbling together a two-thirds majority to impeach him and remove him from office.

His aide said, in what many believe to be an attempt to burnish Musharraf's description of himself as a democrat at heart that the President "may have made many mistakes, but he genuinely tried to build the country and he doesn't want to destroy it just for the sake of his personal office".

The remarks are surprising because Musharraf's official spokesman insisted just days ago that he would serve out his full term and leave office only in 2012. The spokesman stressed that the President saw the February 18 elections for what they were – a parliamentary rather than a presidential poll - and was keen to work with the victorious coalition.

The report said Musharraf had considered resigning immediately after the election results were known, but had been persuaded by party loyalists that this could precipitate a crisis.

#534 Posted by viqarm,

I said "PPP is not vacillating because it never had the restoration stand in the first place.". That's not defending PPP.

Benazir herself did not want restoration of judges and nothing has changed. PML(N)'s win has however put them between a rock and a hard place and they're trying to wriggle out of it somehow while trying to keep PML(N) on their side, and Nawaz Sharif is using all his cards too at the same time.

In very little while I think PPP's parliamentary majority of 20 something seats will disappear with PML(Q) defections to PML(N) and independents of Punjab and Hazara joining NS. I don't believe the PPP initial government will last and NS will be in the saddle in the center too plus Punjab. That's his plan.

Here is the REAL problem, which the election seems to have left unaddressed.

The khakis have shown no signs of realizing that they must become subservient to the will of the people if democracy is to work. So far, it seems to be only the US pressure plus the Kiani's relative "inexperience" which seems to have kept them at bay.

If the elections have done ONE little thing, it is the fact that they have expressed the will of the people (even with the irregularities) in no uncertain terms. People wish to make their own decisions and they wish the khakis to SERVE them - not lord over them.

I am not sure that lesson has gotten through to the khakis. Power is very intoxicating, after all.

The law of the land must take its course, and the Constitution IS the supreme law and its full might must be used to strike at the root of the problem and punish every guilty person who subverted that document and every little pygmy who colluded in that subversion.

This is the only way! There is no other way! No amount of wheeling or dealing will work! Otherwise, sooner or later, the cycle will repeat again.

It is now...

Or perhaps never.

Re: # 533 "This is incorrect. The moment the judiciary is restored (through an executive order just like when they were sacked), musharraf's very candidacy becomes becomes invalid and he's out".

I said as much in #529. But PPPP is hemming and hawing on restoring the judges and you defended it on the grounds that it was never their position before the election. So how is this to happen?

#531 Posted by SR,

Thus for the moment there is no feasible legal recourse against him.

This is incorrect. The moment the judiciary is restored (through an executive order just like when they were sacked), musharraf's very candidacy becomes becomes invalid and he's out. There's no need to go to the parliament. The parliament/senate would only have been needed if the original order was not illegal and unconstitutional. It can now be reversed by the Secretary Defence who is higher in rank than the COAS by a simple memo. Of-course there has to be agreement amongst the coalition partners after the government is formed to issue that memo.

58-2(b) will be removed in due course when enough senators switch loyalties. Nothing urgent about that once musharraf is out.

SR #531 I dont think you are quite accurate in saying that "One semi-successful election is not going to resolve much.".

What has already been resolved as a result of this election is that 1. the vast majority of the Pakistani Awam support those political parties that for the past one year have been taking to the streets alongside the lawyers (that is PPP and PMLN) and reject those parties that have sided with musharraf. 2. the vast majority of the people in NWFP, having voted religious parties into power 5 years have seen for themselves that they as incapable of delivering an honest or just government despite their big talk, have now turned the tide on them.

Even more significant, these elections results are the result not of some surface ripples but because of much deeper and irreversible reasons: social changes taking place in Pakistan as a result of the rising middle class, the widespread impact of the internet, cell phones, the spread of television, the example of a successful democracy in neighboring India, and direct contacts with the west with an increasing expatriate community.

Re: # 529 viqarm writes: ["... Amin Fahim has ... a statement that Mush will not be impeached (...just yet). ...acceptable ... to completely curtail the powers of the President ... remove 58-2b from the constitution ..."]

Unfortunately, that much molested and tattered constitution of 1973 comes to the rescue of it's most recent rapist, the el presidento who has viciously mauled the poor document. This is the irony. When it stood in his path, he dismissed it. But now that it suits him he will defend it and hide behind it.

To impeach the president a 2/3 majority is required of the JOINT parliament, i.e., both the Senate and the National Assembly. Senate, sadly, is still in Q-Leagues hands. Half the senators come up for re-election every two and a half years. Thus for the moment there is no feasible legal recourse against him.

As for the constitutional ammendement to remove 58(2)b, you have an even bigger problem. It takes 2/3 majority in both the Senate and the NA separately to bring about the ammendement.

Thus, at this point even if the National Assembly had an easy 2/3 or even 3/4 majority of PPP or N-League they couldn't do either.

The only way, even now, is for the parliamentary government to become an ally of the lawyers and demonstrate their power in the streets. Only through such aggitation could there be a political atmosphere created in the country that forces Musharraf out. Also the US could play a positive role for a change and provide encouragement for their man to step aside. Failing both these conditions, there is bound to be gridlock and worse. Musharraf may decide to lay low and hang on trying not to make waves for a few months or a year. In the mean time as Shortcut Aziz's disasterous economic policy results start showing their effects and the economic conditions get worse the people will start getting impatient with the government and 58(2)b can come back and bite democrazy in its ass one more time.

Pakistan's political hell-hole is far deeper than most want to believe in this post-election euphoria. It has taken us YEARS and YEARS of mal-governance to reach where we are today. One semi-successful election is not going to resolve much. This road is long and its perils are many. What's needed here are mature and selfless leaders and not these changa-mangas we have parading before us, falling over one another to get a few crumbs off the table of the Saudis and the Americans.

...SR

#529 Posted by viqarm,

Below is reproduced from another board:

Javed Hashmi has confirmed PML(N) decision in an interview with Asma Shirazi yesterday that (1) they will provide numerical support to PPP to form government in the center but will not participate in the cabinet because of differences upon immediate restoration of judges and; (2) even though they have sufficient numbers in Punjab, they will share power with PPP in the province to express goodwill.

http://pkpolitics.com/2008/02/23/parliament-gallery-23-february -08/

Re: # 528 Zee Sahib,

Previosuly NS had made restoration of the judiciary a pre-requisite to forming a coalition. He is now willing to let it be decided in the parliamet; at least that is what I glean from his statements.

On a related note, Amin Fahim has gone on record with a statement that Mush will not be impeached (at least not just yet). An acceptable resolution may to completely curtail the powers of the President to that of a figurehead (which is as it should be anyway in a parliamentary democracy) and to also remove 58-2b from the constitution. This might encourage Mush to step down rather than stay on as a lameduck.

Of course, if they were to restore the judiciary then anyone can file against Mush's election to SC and get it voided in there.

#527 Posted by viqarm,

But the PPPP is vacillating once again, and now NS is showing signs of accomodating them on this one.

Above statement is wrong on both counts. PPP is not vacillating because it never had the restoration stand in the first place.

NS hasn't shown any sign of accommodation. Just yesterday Javed hashmi has confirmed on TV they will not share in power in the center till judiciary is restored to pre-Nov 2.

What signs of accomodation have you seen?

Re: # 526 Zee Sahib,
I agree with Ayaz amir on his reading of Mush. The latter will have to taken kicking and screaming to the exit. He won't go of his own accord.

In Pakistan two things have to be done simply in order to make a point of principle, so they are never repeated again. Mush was selected by an assembly which had no right whatsoever to select him. No matter how much it goes against the wishes of our paymasters, it has to be done to restore the dignity of the people of Pakistan. ON this score so far, AZ's answering the summon of the US ambassador, and SS dash to the Saudi Embassy, do not reflect well on the spine of our wannabe leaders. This, in spite of the mandate the citizens have given them.

The second thing, of course, is the restoration of the pre-Nov'3 judiciary. It has to be done to establish that the SC of Pakistan cannot be dismissed on flimsy grounds by any head of state in Pakistan in future. But the PPPP is vacillating once again, and now NS is showing signs of accomodating them on this one.

It looks like, in the end, it will be a hollow victory that the Pakistanis will be celebrating.