Pervez Musharraf and India Pakistan Rapproachment

Re: # 213

HP Mian’s obsession and his hatred to toward those, whom he calls Ganesh Mutants and Mother Burners, are part of his life. Narcissistic belief has convinced HP Mian that whatever nano, pico and micro analysis upon analysis he dishes out, will always have buyers. Ignorantly he fails to realize that his analysis does not even come close to fairytales which have rhyme and reason to attracts kids and help them learn. Arguing with his narcissistic obsession is impossible. His naiveté is so obvious. 1987 elections in Indian Kashmir were rigged. This rigging turned Shabir Shah, Yasin Malik, and Javed Mir, who were polling agents in these elections, to look west of LOC and later lead insurgency.

Proliferation only in his mind was a non-issue. It became a bigger issue when non-state actors (as Pavo Sahib calls them) entered post 9/11, and put Pakistan’s nuclear bazaar the issue. Till then non-proliferation efforts were targeted toward ex-soviet union countries, to account for the missing nuclear material. Islamic terrorism coming into picture put urgency to control or de-nuke Pakistan. Undoubtedly HP Mian cannot see global picture, when nano, pico and macro analysis is all he can come up?

Same defect shows up as his lack of understanding what are possible in however defective Indian democracy, yes people can put Musharraff’s picture in Connaught Place, New Delhi too.

HP Mian what is possible in India may not be possible in Pakistan, is known to all. There is no testosteronics in it. Give it up. A 20 something Sindhi boy told you, according to your own travelogue, it is not too long when your nano, pico and macro analysis is not tolerated in your good old Sindh. Putting a picture in Srinagar or Connaught Place does not make anyone bigger or smaller.

Passions do not always translate into power. Please do not run on your testosterones so high. There is no need to play the game of mirror with Musharraff’s picture in Srinagar, and smoke with the bus service.

Please do not delude, the truth is out, people who should know it, already know it.

By the way HP Mian's best after Ganesh Mutants and Mother Burners is his circular logic that drives him to produce masterpieces “The NPT was offered to India because Pakistan had refused to sign any treaty that India did not sign.”

Some circular logic to drive HP Mian's nano, pico and macro analysis upon analysis.

HP: Your hostility to India is getting the better of your analysis. The CTBT was a crucial aspect of testing. So was the absolute determination of the BJP government to test. Two distinct reasons came together at one time. Bullying Pakistan after the fact was a bonus. There was no downside to Pakistan testing nukes for India. Equal Equal sanctions hurt Pakistan more, just as Travel Advisories to both hurt India more.

#205 Posted by Pew_Research

Fairytales usually have no rhyme and reason and arguing with made up stories is basically silly. The exaggerated amount of lying that is a part of the Indian culture often makes Indians believe that whatever fairytale they would construct, will always have some Indians buyers.

What the first thing the above reference post does is supports the argument that the Indian nuke tests were directed against Pakistan and not a deterrent or to balance the power with China that has always been the Indian stated stand and no Pakistan in his right mind ever bought that!

So let’s look at how many legs this fairytale has.
In reality none!

First, the reported Pakistan warning to India was delivered in response to Indian military build up along the international borders in 1984 and not in the 90s. Second, The Kashmir insurgency started in 1989. So the two events were not related at all.

India had completed its first round of tests in 1974 and the Pak program came way after that. So if there was any possibility of nuke escalation, it was from India and not Pakistan.

Why India could not do what it did in 1965 was due to the nature of the insurgency in Kashmir. 1965, it were the Pakistani army troopers that entered in Indian Kashmir and before the Sept 1965, there were already skirmishes in Kutch! In 1989, Kashmir insurgency had a mix of both Kashmiris and Jihadis who went in Kashmir. In 1989, the issue of Afghanistan was still alive, though the US involvement in the area was decreasing but the Soviet supported regime was still in power in Afghanistan so for India to escalate the situation ala 1965 was impossible. On top of that the Indians had already been given an earful of Pakistani nuke capabilities so the chances of Indian crossing the international borders were minimal and no Indian government was willing to take the chance. Lastly, in 1989-92 there was volatility in the Indian political system and making a decision like attacking Pakistan was not possible, when musical chairs was being played in Delhi!

Before the BJP Gambit, India did try to test the nukes but was thwarted by the US.

“They correctly gambled that the world would (i) not tolerate Pakistani nuclear threats under which a Kashmir jehad could be waged, and (ii) the world will accept Indian nuclear weapons, but not Pakistani ones until Pakistan stopped proliferaton (which was known until that time privately by various governments, but the issue was never forced into the open), and (iii) the Chinese would be forced to cease covert nuclear cooperation with the Pakistanis.”

Wrong on all counts! Indian test were greeted with condemnation right away throughout the world. If the world had accepted the Indian tests, then why the prerequisite of the recently proposed treaty between the US-India calls for a complete nuke test ban from India?

Proliferation was a non issue at that time. It became an issue after 9/11 and so far there is no proof that the Chinese have withdrawn support from the Pak nuke program!

“a) Pakistan has stopped delivering covert and overt threats regarding use of nuclear weapons.”

Again no legs. The Pakistanis have made it very clear that they would not hesitate to use the nukes if they faced a perceived disaster in any conventional war. This was implied on many occasions. An active missile development program attests to the fact that the Pakistani government likes to have the capability to strike as far as possible in the Indian heartland including the cities as far as Chennai!

“The Kashmir Jehad is for all practial purposes off - the world opinion no longer buys sponsoring insurgencies under a nuclear umbrella.”

Kashmir Jihad under the nuke umbrella? Kashmir story has not ended yet and in fact Indian government was forced to offer more concessions to the Kashmiris including putting Musharaf’s picture smack in the middle of Srinagar. I was recently in Pakistan, and no one would dare place Mush’s picture in any Pakistani city. But he is an undisputed equal of the Indian leadership in Kashmir! Kashmir is not going anywhere and there is still indigenous insurgency in Kashmir very much alive and kicking. 750,000 or more Indian troops are not there for some honeymoon on Lake Dal!

Under the US pressure Indians have been forced to discuss Kashmir and the real PM of India Sonia Gandhi, had to come down to Kashmir to start the Bus service!

The NPT was offered to India because Pakistan had refused to sign any treaty that India did not sign.

I think this is enough at this time to counter the fairytale which obviously was constructed without any research. A blot on a prestigious organization whose name here is being used infringing the trade mark laws. A typical Indian habit to cheat!

shankar, anil:

I think that tahmed sahib's analysis is wrong only in one aspect and that is his thinking that Vajpayee/Advani etc. were surprised and Vajpayee frightened into a dash to Pakistan after they discovered that Pakistan too could explode a bomb.

I think that it stands to reason, however, that a wise and seasoned leader like Vajpayee thought that in the post-explosion atmosphere and also to reduce the pariah status in which the two countries found themselves after their nuclear explsions, it was necessary to cool the temperature between the two countries and a bold step was required for that purpose; the Lahore Yatra followed.

saharanpuri#181;

"Note 2: It was in the Mandi Bahauddin camp that we first heard of this attack on the refugeee train from Pind Daddan Khan in which almost all men were killed and women and children abducted"

I haven't yet read the articles but this note caught my eye. A strange coincidence that my own father was on that train; he was one of the very few people hacked and given up for dead but who actually survived; he spent two months in hospital before he was strong enough to walk.

Ally#187:

I totally agree with your post. I also think that if all those steps are taken, the shared heritage would also ensure development of more relationships at individual levels, especially between the Punjabis on the two sides and of Mohajirs with Hindustani speakers.

jayp#179:

It's not just the food that is common (and if you were picky, you could say that even in food a vegetarian visitor would have a very limited menu to choose from in Pakistn). Shared values include the same folk songs, the same dances, the same closeness of family, the same respect for elders, and even the same value that leads to honour killing; the ex-president of the SGPC is facing a murder trial for "honour killing" her daughter; even Indo-Canadian parents are known to have contracted the killing of their Canadian born daughter in India for marrying someone below their caste.

As regards the biggest demonstration in Pakistan, the same holds true for India and it has to do not with the tnt but the extreme sensitivity of Muslims about perceived insult to their religion. Indeed, it was an Indian Minister, no less, who offered to reward a prize of Rs.50 lakhs to anyone who would kill that cartoonist; and Tasleema Nasreen is hiding in a safe house in Delhi because the West Bengal govt. does not want to face the wrath of Muslims against her writings.

what's this!! prophetboy and capt clueless told us india couldn't progress without handing over kashmir to pakiland!!

FM confident of 9% growth in 2008-09

Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Thursday exuded confidence of achieving a nine per cent economic growth and containing inflation in 2008-09 and said this would help ensure overall welfare of common man.

Speaking to reporters after tabling Economic Survey 2007-08 in the Parliament, Chidambaram said that he was confident of achieving 11th Plan target of 9 per cent growth.

Re: # 204

Tahmed sahib:

"...I think would tend to lead to a a regional bloc between east and west panjab...."

A couple of years ago I had read an essay that someone had sent to me, that analyzed one such possible scenario. I was surprised to find that such economic block, becomes the largest economic entity of 100 million people in South Asia. Largest in GDP, largest in farming income and largest disposable income. Punjabis are dreamers, passionate and entreprenuers who will take risks. I used to know an elderly hindu punjabi person in California. He came from rich sahani family from Pakistan. After Indira Gandhi's attack on Golden Gate temple, his memorable comment was that "Today, the punjabi finally died. Now on their will a hindu Punjabi and sikh Punjabi."

This passionate punjabi had earlier showed unseen violence.

Re: # 183 Shankar to Tahmed

Shankar, I had not read your post until I posted mine in #205 - I basically agree with what you wrote, and simply provided a more elaborate explanation

Re: # 168 Tahmed32

Tahmed, while your sequence of events is reproduced seemingly correctly, your conclusions are unfortunately wrong. They are wrong because your are viewing the India nuclear tests entirely through the Pakistani lens. You need to look at the whole picture through a 'global' lens.

What you need to understand is that prior to 1999 the existence of nukes in the Subcontinent was an ambiguity - both sides claimed to the rest of the world they had the technology, but did not have the 'bomb'. This left India in a limbo - Pakistani threats of using the bomb in case India escalated a conventional war were delivered privately to Indian leaders and considered credible (to PM IK Gujral, in particular, comes to mind), but not publicly. Gujral never took Parliament in confidence about these threats in the '90s, and as a result could do little - neither escalate, nor bring international pressure to bear on Pakistan to stop the Kashmir jehad. In other words, Pakistani nuclear weapons had served their purpose way before '99 - otherwise, Pakistan would not have had the gumption to escalate the Kashmir jehad in the first place (recall, it took a lot less for Shastri to expand the war in '65 - but successive Indian governments in the '90s were reticent. Why? Because, it was understood in India that Pakistan would not hesitate to use nukes). The Kashmir Jihad was on full swing, leaving India with limited options. BJP was in Opposition.

Add to the above that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was being floated with India left out in the cold forever in a 'non-nuke' status. (The US Senate only later rejected the treaty).

The Chinese were secretly assisting the Pakistanis in nuclear and missile weaponry in defiance of the NPT.

The tests were a BJP gambit (BJP actually ran and won their first election on that plank, if you recall) to convert what was until then an ambiguity to a clear 'black and white' picture and let the chips fall where they may. They correctly gambled that the world would (i) not tolerate Pakistani nuclear threats under which a Kashmir jehad could be waged, and (ii) the world will accept Indian nuclear weapons, but not Pakistani ones until Pakistan stopped proliferaton (which was known until that time privately by various governments, but the issue was never forced into the open), and (iii) the Chinese would be forced to cease covert nuclear cooperation with the Pakistanis.

Look what has happened since:

a) Pakistan has stopped delivering covert and overt threats regarding use of nuclear weapons. To understand this, you need to compare the rhetoric of the late '90s and the early 2000s vs. today. The Kashmir Jehad is for all practial purposes off - the world opinion no longer buys sponsoring insurgencies under a nuclear umbrella. India achieved through nuclear testing, what it could not through conventional war escalation. Political aims were achieved through means other than war. By forcing the Pakistanis to unzip their fly, the BJP knew that the tumbling wall of bricks will fall unevenly and more heavily on Pakistan. 9/11 simply reinforced this even more so. No wonder, that Musharraf declared that 'safeguarding strategic assets' (code word for nuclear weapons) was a high priority after 9/11. This never was an issue for Indian nukes. In fact, even the US was forced to publicly acknowledge the danger from Pakistani loose nukes that until then they had ignored for expediency. Today, loose Pakistani nukes are no longer an Indian problem - they are a US problem. In this scenario, words (whether belligerent or otherwise) by Advani mean little -- as head of a coalition government, he probably could never have carried Parliament into a major war anyway. What matters is the end result. Having invited Pakistan to unzip their fly, Advani could afford to talk sweetly. Conventional war was no longer an easy option since the late '80s when Pakistan is though to have first developed nuclear weapons. But, until '99, India could not count on world opinion to turn off the Kashmir jehad, because the world could conveniently believe that Pakistani nukes were just a myth. After '99 all that changed.

b) A full civilian nuclear cooperation deal (i.e. de facto inclusion in NPT) was offered to India after the test, but not to Pakistan - it is India's decision whether to sign up for it or not. Bush pointedly mentioned to Musharraf at a press conference that this could never be offerred to Pakistan. This deal would never have been offered if India had not tested. This is a huge achievement for Indian foreign policy.

c) Chinese nuclear proliferation has significantly scaled down (in fact, the Chinese are now engaging the Indians more seriously on the border dispute than they have ever in the past)

Hope this makes sense.

Ciao

anil sahib #185 You definitely have a point that India-Pakistan relations, when viewed in the broader context of globalization, are bound to get better once mush is out.

Here are some directions that economic ties that I think from currect indications can be expected to grow:

1. Emergence of regional blocs: This is a definite trend in globalization in other parts of the world (notably europe). Two factors I think would tend to lead to a a regional bloc between east and west panjab: i. the leading party nationwide (PPP) is calling for greater provincial autonomy. ii. the leading party in the Panjab (PML) has a basically urban, middle class constituency and is headed by NS who has strong business credentials and can be expected to create a more investor friendly environment which no doubt will attract capital and business ventures from India as well. Taken together, and assuming an end to political hostilities which have reached a nuclear stalemate now, these two separate factors should push things in the direction of greater economic ties. Same with the two kashmirs in the north.

2. Greater trade between India and Central Asia/Iran that goes through Pakistan: the Iran gas pipeline is one example. Simply due to its geographical location, Pakistan will no doubt find tremendous profit making opportunities in the process as well.

One of the few things Karl Marx said that stood the test of time I think is that the "mode of production" determines political structures as well as cultural aspects. As econimic ties strengthen, and given the nuclear stalemate, and with a military general no longer ruling, there seems every reason to be optimistic.

Commerce is trojan horse.
Commerce starts affecting everything in long term as money is supreme. Already too much copying going on, now movies can be shown, tomrrow food, vegetable, meat, wheat. sugar will start and prices will go up. For peace needs separateness as only suspious and paranoid safeness keep smaler parties safe. Just keep respectable distance as big countries China, usa, india are not looking to help but just bring products and sell and damage local industies. This globalization has heart poor and smaller countries. This is what american and western elites want. just a cheap hard working people and dumping ground for their goods. Worst thing is we are covered from south clouds from India submerging culture of country. Now soon gas pipeline and then both iran and india will even have more say. Both will blame again when pipeline blows. It is good to have peace but no friendship as still some country is occupying J and K. Potiticians are corroupt and they will do anything for money and sell the interests of people and liberation struggles. See no body is talking about big K all toking about money and power. It is better to keep some things out of sight then they become out of mind and free of western elites slavary.

shankar #199 no, doctor sahib. the sanctions were lifted not after 9/11 but within a few months of the nuclear explosions - look up the Brownback Amendment on 1998.

#197

'Now, I am convinced chowk is not the forum.'

It is, but once in a while, when there's a pause in between swearing...

'but then romatic notions have never solved issues'

Don't discount romantic notions, more often than not these notions form the genesis of better things.

'other than economics and desire to survive the onslaught of globalization, there is no common driving force for Pakistanis and Indians.'

Is this not true everywhere nowadays, even say within India?

'Jinnah was right. We always were two nations who coexisted peacefully for a common purpose and that being economic security.'

Agreed if you mean the regional oriented parts of the subcontinent. Not if you mean the Hindu and Muslim who share a village in AP, or, the Hindu and Muslim laboreres in Sindh. I don't think people living in the same village look at each other as people of different nations.

This is from the nuggets section of the friday times. It's easy for people like col koolaid to dismiss this as comedy but the reality is that the majority of pakis, even those who consider themselves moderate, believe this shit..capt clueless' posts clearly bear that out.

Thirty wars to liberate Kashmir: Hamid Gul

As reported in daily Nawa-e-Waqt, speaking to Jamaat ud Dawa seminar on Kashmir, ex-ISI chief Hamid Gul said that Pervez Musharraf’s dialogue with India are a complete failure. He said that Kashmir will be liberated when America evacuates Afghanistan. He said we will fight 30 wars for Kashmir. America has advanced technology but the Muslims have fidayeen (mujahideen) attackers. He stressed that suicide bombings inside Pakistan are not a good move.