Surviving Musharraf's Exit?

#516 Posted by ijaz_gul

PPPP+MQM+JUI+independants+PMLQ.

That would be quite a joke if Zardari was indeed working in that direction. Besides, even all of them together could not form Govt in Punjab, (which in fact is all PML-N wants for the time being), split PPP in Punjab which hates MQM after May 12, and damage it further in Sind after the Amin Fahim episode.

However, most analysis does not point towards this possibility, and as Friday Times says in its last editorial, Zardari is cognizant of the 'capacity of MQM to create instability in Sind".

Surely, the sleuths who were providers must have gathered plenty of evidence and 8 years is a long time.

You can bet if any of the footage they surely have is released, it will put desibaba.com (does it still exist?) to shame.

Zardari said something very interesting at Nine Zero. "I am following the will of my Shaheed Leader". Perhaps, this was the agenda of BB too.

I doubt if it was ZAB's agenda, who was an uncompromising politician, but it certainly was Benazir's agenda who had no qualms in laying down supine in every possible position for any whiff of power or personal survival.

There were strong indicators that he was hobnobbing with Mush. Swap of Durrani with Haqqani came only after US clearance.

Also the appointments of Salman Faruqi, Najmuddin Sheikh etc raise a lot of questions. However Zardari's main partner-in-crime (aside from Salman Faruqi) i.e. Shahid Hassan Khan of the IPPs fame is still missing. If he surfaces too, your thesis will be confirmed.

Re: # 529
I have written "if" to indicate a contigency...
I am not saying that PML (N) will move out...but merely indicating that PPP will not face problems of survival if they do
Regarding Mr Musharraf...well NRO had been put into implementation even before the picture became clear...
It is obvious that Mr Musharraf is doing his part of the deal....
Regarding 3rd November steps....well frankly it is a legal debate whether you need 2/3rd majority to give them a constituional cover or not...there are enough sellouts who are claiming that it takes a 2/3rd majority to roll those steps back.....
Wesay is there any law in the Pakistan in the first place...
Did 3rd November itself orginated out of some provision in the constitution....

#526 Posted by Skeptical
"If PML (N) moves out of coalition...
PPP will survive....
And will perform their part of the deal with out any problems...."

What people forget that constitution amendments that Mush brought in after Nov 3, have to go thru the assembly too. The NRO too is dependent on the approval from the assembly and perhaps will have to be part of any constitutional package. At this time I don't see anything that suggest any breakup of the NS, AZ alliance.

Once all constitutional amendments are approved, and Mush has been removed, I just don't see any reason why this alliance should remain. So in six months we should see new elections.

I think after they have completed their agenda, NS and AZ will have to call for new elections. The last option is that the army refuses to go along with both Political parties and forces them out. That would take enormous amount of effort from the army and I doubt that army would do that now.

#516 Posted by ijaz_gul

The CJ's reinstatement has a symbolic value and perhaps would play well in public but the reality is that reforming the judicial system is even more important. If the PPP has some proposals that would help the judicial system, then all need to wait for that. There are still plenty of days for thirty days limit to pass. We need to realize that worthwhile judicial reforms ace the CJ's reinstatement any time.

If Chowdry bows out in exchange for comprehensive reforms in the Judicial system, then he should be ready to do that and the lawyers should also accept that!

He has done his part and he will remain a threat to all politicians. His ego and his No should be tamed for a substantially changed system for future!

#516 Posted by ijaz_gul

There are two sides of this story. The first is what you are saying but the second and the correct one is that PPP and NS need 2/3 majority to get approval of the constitution amendments. AZ and NS still need votes in the Senate and they need support from MQM. In fact, they can’t remove the President w/o the 2/3 support in the both houses. With that in mind, I would suggest people need to slow down and wait for all cards to be played out. The conspiracy theories that are flying everywhere are really not worth the time to speculate about. AZ can’t do anything w/o NS consent and no constitutional amendment can pass the assembly w/o NS. So, I don’t see any issues there.

Though I haven’t spoken to anyone in Pakistan yet, but I read pretty much all Sindhi papers and AZ’s 90 visit appears to have lots of resentment in Sindh.

Let me remind you one thing here. The original agreement that Benazir agreed with Mush was really to have PPP-MQM and Q league, if needed. That did not work out as the situation changed. Once Benazir saw the situation on the ground, she insisted that NS take part in elections knowing full well that if NS is not in the assembly, she would just end up being a puppet PM. Perhaps that was one reason she had to be eliminated. The second time around, Zardari insisted that NS take part in elections after he had announced to boycott them a day after Benazir was murdered.

The tradition in the PPP is that workers usually don’t go against the party leadership in public but inside, strong debates take place and I am sure, Zardari must have heard from many of his workers and Sindhi PPP leaders already about the MQM.

If anyone thinks that removing Mush would be easy or bringing the CJ back would be piece of cake then they live in fools’ paradise. 90% of the PPP MNAs and 70% of the PMLN MNAs are approachable by the army and its agencies. So there is no need to underestimate the situation in Pakistan. Both NS and AZ know that they can’t move w/o getting the okay from the army or at least the army would look the other way when they move against Mush.

There are lots of variable and I think Punjabis are showing their usual haste and Jadli karo na bhai habit again and they would probably end up destroying the whole game and would put politicians in confrontation before they are ready.

I was disappointed to hear Aitazaz Ahsan talking about the constitutional amended sponsored by the President House. This is just plain ridiculous. Any constitutional amendment would require 2/3 and no one has 2/3 w/o NS’s support.

#524 Posted by ijaz_gul
"Even then I had commented that this Zardari may have his hands soiled. Now I have no doubts."

Chill out! This is emotional, childish and not worthy of repeating in public.

Its a good article and rightly it has been pointed out that at present he is the punching bAG...
I do have doubts that he has any intentions to leave or will actually be forced to leave....
The way things are shaping up does not indicate that things are moving towards his dismissal or impeachment....
NRO was borought in with the condition that PPP would support Musharraf....
Now cases against Mr Zardari have been withdrawn....
Mr Musharrraf has done his part of the deal...and with 58 2 (b) and still friendly army behind him, PPP will do its part....
Its funny the way MQM had a "hiostoric" truce and Q league gave vote of confidence....
The reliance of PPP on PML (N) has more or less been eliminated...
If PML (N) moves out of coalition...
PPP will survive....
And will perform their part of the deal with out any problems....
The punching bag will continue to stay there.....though gradually the focus would be more and more on apprently vibrant Parliament
And some "progressive" psuedo intellectuals who also have been supporting Mr Musharraf and think that his opposition is just "reactionary" will be happy......

Re: # 518

Hamidm sahib:

".. i am beginning to empathize with the poor mirasi .."

Cindy Crawford notwithstanding, it is better option to stay with the known mirasi. He is in the neighborhood, and it might be possible to use him for Kashmir adventure, when Cindy Crawford dream is over. Make him part of democracy.

When Benazir was murdured I had no doubt who had done it. I was the fist to put her pic clips out and a few days later, the whole world saw the movie through channel 4. Those pics at chowk were from right there. There is too mach of hard and collborative evidence to suggest that she was eliminated and circumstantial evidence points in a certain direction. Even then I had commented that this Zardari may have his hands soiled. Now I have no doubts.

prophetboy: you've been just as wrong as capt clueless...

at least he's unintentionally funny ....you're just self-righteous...

#519 very well put, arjun. i am seriously thinking of transferring you to the bonabo (the most intelligent among the chimps!!) section. Give yourself another pat on the back from prophetboy!!

#517 Posted by tahmed32 on April 3, 2008 6:16:12 pm


global warming is going to create huge problems


prophetboy....all you have to do is remove musharraf and that problem will be solved too...

after all, according to you, the jihadi problem is also completely musharraf's fault...he created the taliban in his basement..he created the jihadis used in kashmir in his basement...even the jihadi chanda boxes were in his basement...

ijaz: i am honestly no longer too worried. true it would be a nice movie ending to see mush in the dock and the cj in the supreme court - but politics is the art of the possible. so i am still giving zardari the benefit of the doubt.

#515 Posted by tahmed32 on April 3, 2008 6:12:05 pm

aww...prophetboys delusions are shattered by reality...

prophetboy is pissed...

relax...take the day off..don't go do the paki thing and blow up the red line or something..

Re: # 516

ijaz gul,

.... i might be a skeptic, but i am a firm believer in the fact that there are certain basic personality traits just cannot be changed ..... a leopard can onlycover up his spots temporarily ......

...... zardari was a crook and will remain a crook - i just hope he is a competent crook .... nawaz sharif is a vindictive man with despotic tendencies - i just hope saner people aroud him will prevail ......

...... i am beginning to empathize with the poor mirasi

#514 hamidm: pakistan politics are actually not in too bad a shape now. what bothers me is more serious problems that i hope we can address somehow - global warming is going to create huge problems at around the same time population hits 300 million. and pollution is going to get much worse. the pindi you and i grew up in is already history. replaced by traffic jams, asphalt and crap buildings where there used to be green hedges.

tahmed, hamid, Zeemax and HP

Eversince Zardari took over I was suspicious. I Repeatedly commented on chowk, that thre is something suspicious about him, he is playing his cards one by one and perhpas he may have the last laugh too. Things are clearing up and soon the PPPP+MQM+JUI+independants+PMLQ could form a coalition. In fact, many of the Q chaps have already sitched sides albeit virtually.

Zardari has too many skeletons in his cupboard and he is putting more into them. During his captivity he had access to best of things including women. Surely, the sluets who were providers must have gathered plenty of evidence and 8 years is a long time.

Zardari said something very interesting at Nine Zero. "I am following the will of my Shaheed Leader". Perhaps, this was the agenda of BB too.

There were strong indicators that he was hobnobbing with Mush. Swap of Durrani with Haqqani came only after US clearance.