Who is Making the Oil Fume ?

majumdar,
they can if USA decides so.
Regarda

Ijaz sahib,

Isnt the Saudi game dangerous. Can't the Saudi chicken too come home to roost, like they have in Pak?

Regards

Re: # 57 ngk,
A very pointed question and I guess you know the answer.

Saudi interest now is to keep destabilsed muslim countries burning. That is where extremist factions are busy in militancy. This also applies to Afghanistan and Pakistan. If these regions prosper, they may find some reason for stability. Then chickens come home to roost as they have done in Pakistan.

Re: # 66

Majumdar:

You indeed make valuable points.

Anil,

You are forgetting something. India has labour aplenty and with energy costs spiralling organic farming may be almost competiive with chemcial based farming, you may want to chat up Vengatramanan (his family is into it in a big way) sans the subsidy. And surely if India can double its yield and given the large veggie population we can become net exporters not importers.

I think we need to play smart than buy assets at ridiculous prices like Chinese.

Regards

Re: # 64

Majumdar:

"...Look at that as an opportunity..."

No doubt it. It is an opportunity, and the challenge is that land holdings are smaller in India.

However, with 76% land utilization, India will become net importer. Chinese recognize that they too will become net importer, and are buying farm lands in Brazil and Argentina.

There is an excellent special section on Energy in the latest Economist. You can access it on the Internet as well.

Anil,

(India's farm productivity is the lowest among the above countries. )

Look at that as an opportunity, sir!!! Even with productivity being 1/3 to 1/4 of the developed powers, India still feeds its population (just about though). What if it could come to par with the ROW?

Regards

I almost was going to miss this valuable article. Good thing I opened the site today. This informative piece of excellent journalism has created lot of comments as these issues are of great concern to many. (I have not read all -just glanced over) We all know that there are two camps - optimists & pessimist on these matters of environmental degradation and unbridled use of non-renewable resources and now its direct impact on the world economy and politics. I tend to be pessimist because I see that all the solutions are bandage solutions. The only way out is complete change of life style, complete overall of our thinking, complete abandonment of selfish greedy drives, complete listening to old wisdoms. Simplify. Simplify. Simplify. But such words fall only on deaf ears. In front of all sophisticate theories and philosophies, sciences and technologies and political prowess these words may sound ridiculously simple. So what happens? What happens is Noah's flood. It is not a religious fable. It is myth of much more significance. When earth /life / nature (whatever name you want to give it) cannot support the malefaction of our deeds, it let us reap the fruits of our deeds - which is total wipe out - so that life can take a new start. That is what is going to happen - may be in our lifetimes - see the breaking of ice sheets - see the changing pattern of the oceans - see the disappearance of the species - we are marked for the same fate too - but only if we would change.
This is not some sort of sermon - it is writing on the wall for anyone to see - but only if one can see.

Looking from a different perspective the Chinese are under immense pressure from environmentalists and international community alike whereby they are emphatically being asked to detoxicate their effusions. While there are reports that the Chinese are working to make their regulations & implementation stringent that would inturn reduce their consumption.

If the same analogy is applied to India and other developing economies, it may bring some relief in medium term.

Re: # 60

rf786:

"...Treaty was signed in 1992 but Euro was first introduced in 1999...."


Thanks for it. This reinforces my point even more, as it puts the rate of devaluation of dollar against Euro is even higher. Please correct me if I am wrong, that the Euro was introduced at about 92 cents to 1 Euro.

Re: # 58

Treaty was signed in 1992 but Euro was first introduced in 1999.

I agree with your point regarding industrial production driving demand and Chinese adopting the same strategy. Industrial nations have taxes for environmental and demand control purposes whereas the Chinese provide subsidies.

Chinese are focused on the Olympics and are expected to announce major policy shifts post the event which may include softening of subsidies.

Re: # 40

NKG:

"..Anil, India and China may be increasing fuel consumption.."

Indian economic growth model is different than the Chinese. Its industrial and services output is different. It is more service driven than manufacturing driven. Its manufacturing base is not world's production center. It is more service oriented economy than Chinese economy. Chinese oil consumption is distorted to reflect increases due to export oriented manufacturing base.

Indian turtle is quite healthy. Man Mohan Singh should get a Nobel Prize for bringing Indian economy to this stage.

Indian problems will come from its farming (76% of India's land is utilized), about 47% of China's (if I am not wrong), about 35% of America's. Brazil and Argentina land utilization is only 17%. India's farm productivity is the lowest among the above countries. Economists are already saying that India's argiculuture is lagging behind its growth.

Re: # 42

rr786:

"..The euro was established by the provisions in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty on European Union that was used to establish an economic and monetary union..."

The above is from Wikipedia.

My point is not that energy needs will go down. Just the opposite, that there is strongest correlation between the energy needs and industrial output. Therefore as long as the industrial output keeps growing, energy needs will grow. China's economic model (at least the production side) is very close to the West, and hence their energy needs must be satisfied by the oil.

Will Chinese substantially slow down their growth rate to accomodate the transition from oil to other forms, is the question most economists are asking today?

#47 is for Ijaz...

Answer for
Why Arabs will like to see small African producers ( Nigeria, Chad, Sudan) stay out off supply line...

Jayp, Majumder...
High population is source of all these problems...And if you believe in nature, highest casualties from natural furies are in Asia -Tsunami(India, Srilanka,Thailand...), Earthquake-( Pakistan, India, China). Cyclone-Mynmar, Bangladesh....So, nature is restoring some balance...
If India can reduce population upto 20%, it can sustain without destroying nature too much.

Re: # 51

what we really need is coperation with opec to keep the price at 150 for a decade. Then we can have a smooth energy transition. It is unlikely, teh price will start falling the moment total demand drops. Then the SUVs will be back. What is needed is sustained high price to scrap most of teh SUV plants and a large numbers on teh roads, along with creation of mass transit system. Then it will be a permanent structural change.

I understand that in teh US, ford has only mothballed teh SUV and truck plants, not scrapped them.