Who is Making the Oil Fume ?

Glad to see it on FP - first read on your iLog. This is an informative and useful article on this issue. It is worth publishing in any international magszine of highest quality. Keep up the good work man.
Me think world is at the brink of a big disaster. In our lifetime we are going to see many structures, social, poliitical, economic coming tumbling down like a house of cards - men only make cobwebs !!! There is no alternative than to complete change of life style - listen to prophets -Even Brazilain experiment with Ethonol has proved to be a hoax. See CNN's recent investigative report 'OUT OF GAS'

According to Chomsky (and another work by Hill and Wang called Deterring Democracy 1992 p47-49) of the $13 billion of the US Marshall plan aid, $2 billion was given directly to US oil companies.

In terms of inflation this would be the princely sum of nearly $16 billion in today's money.

The purpose of this investment (by the US Public sector in US private companies (?free markets?) was to allow for them to compel Europe to become dependant on oil (sourced by the US who have since sought to develop total control over World oil) as compared to coal which the Ruhr (France and Germany) was rich in.

Henry Kissinger had exactly this in mind in 1970 when he said "Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control people".

This was exactly what Churchill said in 1919; "We must become.. the controllers at the source, of at least a proportion of the supply (of oil) which we require....and obtain our oil supply, so far as possible, from sources under British control, or British influence."

By the mid-20's Britain controlled most of the World's oil .

Post WW2 following the Bretton Woods conspiracy, Britain had been reduced to America's lapdog for its very foolish misadventures against the Nazis. The US swiftly sought to destroy all European energy independence, in particular Italy's which perhaps foresaw the coming of the beast.

Today the World still suffers from the Bretton Woods conspiracy and its bastard democracy: the willing surrender of your nation's resources and markets to your betters.

In today's World particularly when considering the more "ethnically challenged" nations there are literally hundreds of examples of the direct co-relation between democracy and national poverty Democracy is White imperialism and Iran now may be the last bastion of civilisation left in the world.

"Perhaps we are on the verge of a new era in which oil could lose its importance, exactly as coal did 100 years ago�

I sincerely hope it does. The adverse outcomes of the oil-hegemony have already afflicted this planet beyond relief. Solar power is the only way to the future, and as long as oil is there, it will remain undermined.

A very interesting and informative read Adnan. Thanks

A good essay.
I too have been sceptic of Bretton Woods for a long time and mentioned it occasionally at chowk. Nice to see some one who shares the thoughts with me.

I feel that to understand the present crisis and find an explanation, we must study in detail the Oil Crises nof 1973.This crisis generated an entirely new trend in borrowing, military spending amongst oil producing countries and eventually, the entire boom landing in USA's kitty. Hence a new paradigm of global domination by USA was created and Oil resources became the principal focus. Very few countries realised that the paradigm had shifted and continued to adhere to the Post WW2 order.

Its worthwhile to also find an explanation for the relationship between the oil prices and value of US Dollar.

Awiting discussion responses.

Cheerios

Ijaz gul sahib,

Are you saying that oil exporting countries were basically dumb enuff to spend their windfall gains on buying useless products from the West, sub-optimal investments in Western assets or financing their wars (incl. on hardware purchased from the West) ?

Regards

Yes I am saying that in a way.
I teach International Political Economy at the Post Graduate Level. Oil Crisis of 1973 is one of my preferred research subject.

This is exactly what happened. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Libya spent huge amount of so gained petro dollars to meet the ends of threat perspectives. Lesson learnt by USA was never ever allow it to happen again.

In the final analysis this huge sum of over 123 Billion Dollars as it was in 1978 was converted largely into the third world debt.

"Else are we going to see a big improbable change?"

If that happens all the established modeling will crumble before our eyes. In a way it would mean "no knowledge better than knowledge".

Do we have any probable improbables...

Ijaz gul sahib,

(Lesson learnt by USA was never ever allow it to happen again. )

I am glad that USA has learnt its lesson. I hope so have the oil exporting countries.

Regards

To stabilize oil price, Govt.s have to stop subsidizing it. Let the market decide the price. The oil price id increasing and the consumers are not paying it directly. So, how the supply-demand balance be maintained?
With current consumption level in West and no new major oil discoveries energy prices will soar....Plain economy, no politics....

Nkg,

Re: #9

Correct.

Regards

Plain economics yes; But how does that explain the doubling of the price during a period of just 1 year without any abnormal increase in the corresponding demand and some increase in supply as well?

Delirium sahib,

You could have a point that this price increase may be driven by speculators rather than fundamentals. At the same time I must point out that even small supply-demand imbalances can cause prices to swing drastically even in commodities other than oil.

Regards

The required structural changes are slowly taking place. Several SUV and truck plants in teh US have been closed. Ford company is shaky. More SUVs will be scrapped for smaller cars. Public transport usage will increase. Once there is a decline in oil demand, the prices will fall.

It will take a year to achieve this, and the US has the most dominant effect. US consumes 8 times more oil than india. A .5 percent reduction will be phenomenal.

The required structural changes are slowly taking place. Several SUV and truck plants in teh US have been closed. Ford company is shaky. More SUVs will be scrapped for smaller cars. Public transport usage will increase. Once there is a decline in oil demand, the prices will fall.

It will take a year to achieve this, and the US has the most dominant effect. US consumes 8 times more oil than india. A .5 percent reduction will be phenomenal.

Re 12

majumdar sahib,

Thank you for enlightening me.

Re 14

The world is feeling the pinch now.Hybrid cars and fuel efficient vehicles are now better positioned to penetrate the markets.

Regards

Re: # 11
If you look at the pattern of the producer consumer graph of Crude oil, major producion countries are minor consumers (Vene..., Arabs...). Unless and until these countries feel internal pressure, they will not reduce price.