Forgotten President & Shape of Things to Come?

bulleya:

I come back to the same time; the arrangement that you suggest would still have a common military, which means common defense; so Pakistan would still be stuck with the responsibility of protecting FATA and NWFP from outside attacks; in other words, the only way it can abandon that responsibility would be by letting that area amalgamate with Afghanistan.

BTW, I learnt something new yesterday; in going throug the accounts of the Mutiny of 1857, I noticed that the English were then calling Awadh as the North West Frontier Provinces and Sialkot as Upper India.

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dost-mittar #: "To whom has the sheikh of dubai yielded his sovereignty?.."

...dubai is part of a country known as uae, which is a federation of seven sheikhdoms - abu dhabhi, dubai, sharjah, fujeira, umm-ul-q, ajman and rak.....

out of these, there are really only two that make good money - abu dhabi and dubai.....the rest just live off these two....

.....abu dhabi owns over 86% of the land of uae and has aroun 90-95% of the oil.....in fact, uae is really abu dhabi.......the average worth of each citizen of abu dhabi is a whopping $17 million......yes, $17 million.......and if you include the oil that is still in the ground, it would be much much higher......

however, dubai has made the most progress and now is the most well known, with a well established real estate, tourism and services industry.....it only gets 5% of its revenue from oil......due to a large influx of expats, it has a larger population than abu dhabi, even though it only has 5% of the area of uae.......

uae is an extremely loosely federated combination of sheikhdoms, which exist as one country......but only in terms of currency and foreign policy.......domestic policy, culture, laws etc. are all different.......

if abu dhabi (and dubai) wanted to, they could take over the uae.....for all practical purposes, the rest of the sheikhdoms would be paupers if not backed by abu dhabi's oil and dubai's services market......

basically abu dhabi has given up control over uae (and has exceeded territory) to other shiekhs to ensure a peaceful country.....

this is the best way for pakistan (and south asia) to exist.....the cultural differences in pakistan (and south asia) are hugely more than those in uae......so this becomes even more imperative.....

pakistan should exist as a looser federation of provinces.....each running its own area, with a common currency, foreign policy and military......other than that every province decides what it wants - shariah, secularism, violence, peace etc......

in fact south asia should be the same......a very loosely integrated union of provinces, with one common currency, a weak central govt. and an alliance on foreign policy......much like what eu is moving towards...

..this has been the natural medium for what is south asia (including what is today pakistan)....the only time this medium has been violated is when conquerors (ashoka, mughals, british etc.) forcefully united it....

anyways, if india does not want to do that, it doesn't mean pakistan should not do it......as i always say, people spend 95% or more of their time in their own city......as long as the city is running well, who cares how large the country happens to be........

the strange self-centered desire of individuals to control lands and populations, which they may never even visit, is something beyond my comprehension........

if i live in islamabad, i want it to run well......i could care less if quetta runs well......as long as i can do business and visit quetta, easily, i am happy......

bulleya:

To whom has the sheikh of dubai yielded his sovereignty?

dost-mittar #: "But as I said earlier, your solution would mean Pakistan giving up sovereignty of its territory."

yes, and there is nothing wrong with that......the most comfortable places i have lived in are the ones which are not afraid of giving up sovereignity......

people spend most of their lives in one city......as long as the city runs well, they are comfortable......dubai being one example....

Hamidm2 miaN,

Enjoy it HERE:

media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp6-30-08ll.jpg

Hamidm2 miaN,

Enjoy!

bulleya#161:

Thanks. But as I said earlier, your solution would mean Pakistan giving up sovereignty of its territory.

bulleya,

Between the line subtext of #166 is fear of IEDs and RDXs in cities of Punjab and Karachi. The war is already lost in mind because of fear. Pakistan does not have will for the fight. In 71 punjab and Karachi were insulated from the Mukti Wahini and Indian forces.

Putin's Russia and the PRC have despite the ummah, managed to crush the islamists in Chechnya and Xinjiang.

Another big factor - Pakistani taliban is irregualar non-khaki Pakistani army. India needs to make sure that Indian Muslims do not get talibanized.

majumdar #: "But many Pakistani strategists including Ijaz sahib and Amin sahib have opined that India's mobilisation forced Pakistan to counter-mobilise drawing troops away from the Western frontier. This allowed the militants to regroup and move into the vacuum."

i am not sure if ijaz and amin are strategists......one is a retired major and the other enjoys reading up on and participating in military affairs......

i have yet to meet a military strategist in pakistan....i mean one who really analyses things in depth.....

...the worst move by pakistan was to put troops on its eastern borders......hence anything that forced pakistan to withdraw troops from the eastern border would be helpful to pakistan and not harmful.......

....what we are seeing right now in tribal areas has been going on for ages (albeit in much lower intensity)......it only ended up on tv now.....its the wild wild west.....and no one from pakistan (specifically the army), wisely, ever interfered....you can, now, see why....

.....the worst impact on pakistan, in the good old tribal days, was that, every now and then, someone's car would get stolen and end up in tribal areas, from where it could not be recovered...that was it.......

......then 9/11 happened and musharraf gave usa everything they wanted.......even that could have been handled.......however, when the usa asked pakistan to send troops into the tribal area and start bombing and kiling, that is when the disaster started.....

people like imran khan were yelling and screaming at the top of their lungs on what a disaster it would be, but no one listened.....the army was totally against it also....however, musharraf needed the us lifeline and he went ahead......now pakistan's soldiers are being killed by both sides.....

there is absolutely no way to defeat a populist civilian insurgency......the good thing here is that the taliban insurgency is not populist, unlike kashmir and bangladesh or iraq etc......

hence it can still be contained.......however, this requires the ppp govt. to first establish its credibility with the people of pakistan, so that it is trusted.......then it needs to debate it in the assembly.....then get backing from the assembly to take some military action........

and then, very wisely, mix minimal military action with maximum negotiation.......while simultaneously, disengaging from the usa gwot so that it is clear that pakistan is taking action only for itself......

the deeper pakistan gets into gwot, the more trouble there will be.......it needs to disengage, as quickly as possible and concentrate on its own affairs.....nato countries (like holland) have a few hundred troops to a few thousand troops in afghnistan.....why in the world should pakistan have 70,000?.......

p.s. if you remember pakistan almost sent soldiers into iraq......as hamidm etc. cheered on....imagine what would have happend.......the afghani al-qaeda is already after pakistan.......even the iraqi one would have been, as well....

rule no. 1.....never ever join us-led wars......stay neutral......

Make that January 2002. But you knew that already, you weasel!

Beej bhaiyya,

Indian mobilization also led to the Mushy whining and crying and promising to change his way in his January 2001 TV appearance.

I am not sure that we referring to the same incident. The Parliament attack took place in Dec 2001 while you are ref to Jan 2001. Pls. clarify.

Regards

#162 Jum

Indian mobilization also led to the Mushy whining and crying and promising to change his way in his January 2001 TV appearance.

That performance for the "mighty" Pakistani army was the most humiliating spectacle in Pakistan's history!

It was followed up by significant (though half-hearted) mesures to curb in jihadis - which increased animosity between parts of the administration and its pro-jihadi elements - weakening that administration.

FM Romair,

(pakistan is slowly moving towards a situation, which will be a lose-lose....)

It reminds me of your India's Lose Lose Lose scenario article in 2002 or 2003 which you had written after India's mobilisation after the Parliament attack.

You were proved correct in one sense that India's mobilisation did fail to achieve anything. But many Pakistani strategists including Ijaz sahib and Amin sahib have opined that India's mobilisation forced Pakistan to counter-mobilise drawing troops away from the Western frontier. This allowed the militants to regroup and move into the vacuum.

If their theory is indeed correct then India's mobilisation did indeed undermine Pak's well-being although in ways that the Indian establishment never imagined.

Regards

dost-mittar #: "or anyone else?....Do you not foresee a serious problem in Pakistan soldiers taking on the jihadis?.."

yes, this is, obviously, a major problem.....no one likes fighting their own citizens.....and if they feel it is at the behest of a foreign power, like, usa, it become extremely difficult.....perhaps under the orders of a civilian govt., it will get easier.......

...pakistan is slowly moving towards a situation, which will be a lose-lose....perhaps in a major way....

many of us had highlighted again and again that pakistan should not use force in its tribal areas......and that it should not join america's gwot...if america, itself, cannot win it, with $80 billion/yr, how in the world is pakistan going to win it......

usa, however, has one advantage......it can quietly retreat back across the atlantic, after losing in iraq and, now, in afghanistan......

pakistan doesn't have this luxury.....

i am amazed at the bravado of the pakistani expatriates.....they seem to be pushing military action as if it has been a success everywhere......this same crowd, on chowk, pushed military action in iraq......no logic, no knowledge of history, just bravado......

i suppose one can be brave if one is sitting in dearborne, michigan....

tribal areas are a like a hornets' nest.......i doubt too many people on chowk have ever visited the place......individuals on chowk are simply excercising their political views through this violence.......the pro-american on one side and anti-american on the other......

this is extremely dangerous.......one of the worst things that can happen to a country is, for it to become the ground on which int'l ideological battles are fought.....

thus, both the usa and the taliban are bad for pakistan.....

pakistan should not have sent a single soldier in there......it should have told the tribals that they are no to engage in violence with the american forces in afghanistan, without the consent of the pakistan govt.......and if they do so, they are on their own........

now pakistanis are in four minds.......they don't know whether to oppose the americans or the taliban....they don't know whether to use military force or to negotiate.......as time passes, all four options become more and more useless.......

the solution now is abrupt de-centralization of power.....pakistan needs to be federated....which in the long run will be of great benefit.....let the tribal areas push their own policies.....let nwfp push its own.....and punjab and sind and baluchistan push their own........

once the tribal area inhabitants have control of their own territory, they can do as they please......fight the americans or join up with them.......

#159 Posted by tahmed32,

Let's not drift from your statement that they killed 'peace negotiators'. That's exactly the kind of headline disinformation which you (and many others) readily digest, and use to support the rest of your contentions - all baseless.