Musharraf's Resignation and Beyond

Re: # 226

Zeemax

{Benazir and PPP were more in contact with Bin Ladin than Nawaz Sharif during the Afghan Jihad. You're aware of Naseerullah Babar's role of-course}

According to Rehmat Shah Afridi, NS recieved millions of dollars in the name of jihad directly from OBL. That money was supposed to be distributed to the Afghan Jihadis but was never delivered. BB had also accused NS and OBL for engineering moves against her Govt.

{PML-N had a seat adjustment with PPP in SIND and didn't field any candidates opposite PPP. The question of not getting any seats in Sind doesn't arise.}

Post BB murder, Interior or rual Sindh offered little room for NS to contest any election or that matter any other political party with no strong grass root support.

#217 ijaz gul: would you care to specify exactly what you find stupid in NS actions?

He has emerged as the champion of the Rule of Law in Pakistan. What part of the "Rule of Law" do you have trouble understanding?

#217 ijaz gul: would you care to specify exactly what you find stupid in NS actions?

He has emerged as the champion of the Rule of Law in Pakistan. What part of the "Rule of Law" do you have trouble understanding?

#224 Posted by majumdar,

Ijaz Sahib means Nawaz didn't learn from Benazir's betrayal of Charter of Democracy. See my comment in that respect below. BUT that's not a good parallel with the Murree Declaration. Both were miles apart in implication.

Charter Of Democracy was a document of general principles to be followed SHOULD either of the parties come to power, while BOTH the Murree Declaration as well as 7th August agreement was to take specific measures BETWEEN two Coalition partners already in power. There couldn't have been any unforeseen compulsion for these to be broken by PPP.

Nawaz Sharif would have dealt differently with Benazir had a coalition situation arisen with her, though I think the chance would have been close to zero. Nawaz League would have sat in opposition in the center in her case right from the start. Zardari though, was untested politically - so due consideration was allowed for that by PML-N

#225 Posted by ijaz_gul,

Thanks. My comments:

1. The Charter of Democracy was with and broken by Benazir. Zardari was an unknown surprise quantity as PPP Chairman after Benazir's assassination.

2. Benazir and PPP were more in contact with Bin Ladin than Nawaz Sharif during the Afghan Jihad. You're aware of Naseerullah Babar's role of-course.

3. PML-N had a seat adjustment with PPP in SIND and didn't field any candidates opposite PPP. The question of not getting any seats in Sind doesn't arise.

4. This appears to be from public's point of view i.e in your opinion the public mistakenly thought he stood for principles - but that's not the debate here. However, re "He thought that the CJ issue is a foregone conclusion and used it as a veto to strengthen his power base. In the end he failed in both", not so. According to the latest IRI Poll, 81% of public opinion wants the judges restored. Nawaz Sharif was right on the mark making the issue the #1 priority on his election manifesto.

5. Which errors of judgment?

6. I'm sure he has his eyes and ears too. Every big time politician does. Depends though how one interprets the information.

Zeemax, Majumdar and Romair,
In political terms Nawaz is a Romantic and not a Pragmatic and what MQM terms as Practicalism. His first fault was that he did not assess the ground realities.
1. Though he endeared the COD, he should have had second thoughts after the NRO which in fact was the death of COD. His love affair with COD blinded his judgement.
2. He knew that due to his proximity to OBL in the past, he had to do enough in practicalism to allay the perceptions of USA. He did not do it.
3. His team of think tanks did not war game the results of the elections. His Einsteins should have evaluated why he got no seats in Sindh. Now he must face the humiliation of having missed the boat. Perhaps his major pre occupation was Punjab and his own third term, and Zardari knew how to play his perceptions.
4. Knowing that he had wheeled dealed in the past (OBL, IJI, Hamid Gul Saga, Mehran Bank) to think that he was an idealist and stood for principals would be naive. He thought that the CJ issue is a foregone conclusion and used it as a veto to strengthen his power base. In the end he failed in both while Zardari knew where the fault line was.
5. He and his team are guilty of very serious errors of judgement now as they had been in the past.
6. Most, he did not enjoy the luxury of eavesdropping that Zardari had. His benefactors did it for him.

As an aside, I am beginning to believe that Aitezaz Ahsan is also planted and the Dharna in Islamabad has to be seen in this context.

To add to what Zee sahib says:

If NS had learnt, what would he have done differently?
What would have been the payoffs to each party?

Regards

#222 Posted by ijaz_gul

He did not learn.

Didn't learn from what? Sorry I'm pressing you but I'ld really like to know where he went wrong.

Re: # 218
He did not learn.

zeemax/majumdar #:...it is too early to tell who made a mistake and who didn't.....

perhaps ns should not have gotten into the coalition to begin with....he should have let ppp run around and try to form a majority govt.....and just waited....he should have stated that he will join the govt. after the judges are back.....not before.......

......on the other hand, he needed ppp's support to form the govt. in punjab - the political center of pakistan.....though i doubt, ppp could have allied itself with pml-q......

pml-n's main strength is that it controls punjab - 62% of pakistan's population, and has good contacts with the conservative part of pakistani politics - jamaat etc.......ppp's main strength is that it has representation in every province, and is prefered by the usa......

i think nawaz should just sit tight now.....keep the judges issue in the front.....secure a majority in punjab, by getting as may pml-q mpas with him as possible.......

other than that, he should just relax, and watch the ppp govt. make a fool of itself in the center......if he tries to agititate too much, he will get blamed for destabilizing the ppp govt........

.....ppp has no skills to run the center (or sind etc. for that matter)......all it has are lawyers, pirs, waderas and a few feminists......a good group to launch a protest, but certainly not a group to run a country.....

pml-n has enough skills to run punjab....it has businessmen (small and big), lawyers, a few finance people etc......

nawaz should get his natural allies - apdm, imran khan, jamaat etc. around him.....jui will eventually join him also......he should take as many of the pml-q people on as he can......he should run punjab well, and plan for the next election......

if my predictions are correct, the next election will happen within three years.....ppp cannot run a govt. longer than that.......zardari is going to make a mess of things.....and then the army, from the background, will ask for another election.......

another strength that nawaz has is that his party is without waderas and pirs now.....it is an urban party, which consists of people who are totally committed to him (all the non-committed ones left and joined pml-q)......ppp is still divided into different mindsets......zab and benazir, due to their personalities, were able to keep ideologically different groups like lawyers/minorities/women and pirs/waderas under one umbrella.......i doubt zardari can do that.......

short term victory to zardari.....long term victory to nawaz (if he has some patience).....short and long term loss (as long as zardari and nawaz are around) to pakistan......

#219 Posted by majumdar,

Exactly. Therefore my question to ijaz_gul.

Zee sahib,

NS cudnt have done anything differently. AZ and the establishment wud possibly have asked him to compromise on the judges but that would have destroyed his credibility and support among the masses.

Regards

#217 Posted by ijaz_gul,

Ijaz, I had asked you this question on UP as well but didn't unfortunately get your response.

Where exactly do you think Nawaz made a mistake?

I mean, since entering into Coalition with Zardari, at what point did he do something when he should have done the other thing, and what would have been that other thing?

I just want to know how you (and some others) say he's a bonga :)

masadi and Matloob,
I agree fully and value your views. We will be soon entering the most treacherous and cantakerous phase of Pakistan's history. BB's death has created a very serious leadership void and NS despite all blessings proves a Bonga as ever. In the interim, this void is filled by Zardari who represents the Centcom connection, but for how long. See this.
"WASHINGTON — Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to the United Nations, is facing angry questions from other senior Bush administration officials over what they describe as unauthorized contacts with Asif Ali Zardari, a contender to succeed Pervez Musharraf as president of Pakistan"
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/26/washington/26diplo.html?ref=asia

Zalmay Khalilzad played a distasteful role in the pseudo-triumphant return of Benazir Bhutto from notorious corruption-fueled exile… namely, the “old friend� was the one of the U.S. officials who convinced her to return on her ill-fated trip to take back Pakistan’s Parliament. We all know how that turned out.
http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/26/he-just-cant-keep-his-hand-ou t-of-the-cookie-jar/

Re: # 205
How a demon can be demonized further?
AZ is a well known demon in as long as he has been on the horizon of Pakistan's politics, while to a select few he is known to be in this state even before being married to BB which is a known fact that this marriage was imposed too.
Jub geedar key maut atee haye tou woh shehr key taraf bhagta haye haye likewise Zardari is also running towards the slaughter house he is destined for.

Re: # 211
There is no doubt that AZ will face it like he made many face it before. It's now his turn.
Bakray key maan kab tak khair manaye gee, ek na ek din tou churri kay neechay aye gee.