Afghanistan Strategic Choices for USA and Regional Actors

Re: # 13

Until 2002 US had Airbasis is Kozakaistan. In that year the subjugated Muslims in the state rose up against the Russian backed puppet regime in peaceful protests in capital city. The puppet regime like that in Pakistan responded with machinegun fire - close to 6000 died - no wounded. The soldiers of puppet regime took pains to check every fallen wounded and shoot them in the head. It was kind of what hindu army did to Kashmiri long marchers last september. If you think that such attrocities can be forgiven and forgotten then either you are an idiot or a channakya.

Re: # 18

Hindus would be idiots par excellence not to take advantage of this situation. It is only common sense. You don't have to be a chanakya to figure that out.

Re: # 16

There is no tradition of Central Asian States being part of Russia. For the past 1400 years these states were either sovereign Sultanates or part of one or the other of Muslim Calipahets. Russians occupied these states from Ottomon caliphate. So they shall be free again, it is just a matter of time. And yes they will form the most significant part of Pan Islamic Confederation - Inshallah. You hindus have a bad habbit of making every occupation a tradition.

allah's army in action...

HOPE & FEAR: In limbo: Fata’s displaced thousands

Text and Photos By Huma Yusuf

“We didn’t risk losing our lands to the Taliban�

Attired in a velvet shalwar kameez sprinkled with gold sequins across its floral pattern, Ameena looks incongruous amongst the grey light and sullied white tents at Katcha Garhi. She explains that she left her home village of Kausar in Bajaur Agency in a rush during a celebration associated with the holy month of Ramazan. “The bombing started and some nearby houses were demolished,� recalls Ameena. “We didn’t think -- we just left.�

Ameena confirms that militants affiliated with the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan had taken up residence in her village before the government launched a military operation in Bajaur. But she also insists that the military operation caused more havoc in her life than the Taliban ever did.

“When the Taliban first came, we shied away from them because they were strangers in our village,� she says. “When they came around to our houses, we would hide our men from them and wouldn’t even give them water. No one was in favour of them and we didn’t want to risk losing our lands to them.�

The sentiment towards the Taliban gradually evolved, however. Ameena explains that people warmed to them over time because they promoted Islam. “They also never did anything against women and children,� she says. “They never forced themselves into our houses.�

Her resigned tone changes when she starts describing the military operation that began in August 2008 in Bajaur Agency. “Our lives were going along as normal, and then suddenly there were aerial raids all the time. We were so scared, we couldn’t eat. We were in constant tension about the army showing up so we didn’t till our lands. After a week or so, we were suffering from hunger and thirst while our elders fell sick. It was when our neighbour’s house was crushed by heavy artillery that we decided to leave for Peshawar. The army caused more trouble for me than the militants ever did.�

“No one was ever scared of the Taliban�

Azka Khanum, from Bhai Cheena in Bajaur, agrees with the sentiment that life was bearable under the Taliban, but destroyed by the Pakistan Army’s military operation.

She insists that there were no Taliban in her village. “There was some talk that the Taliban had come to Bhai Cheena, but we never saw them physically and there was no threat from them,� says Azka. “Once in a while, someone would drop pamphlets in our courtyards that said that women should cover themselves properly. Since, by custom, we already do purdah, we didn’t mind that they were correcting us. Those of us women who used to walk in the fields started to become more careful, but no one was ever scared of the Taliban. They never did anything forceful.

“The government said the Taliban were bad,� adds Azka, “but we didn’t have any issues until the military operations started.� She remembers how bombing began one evening without any prior warning, forcing her family to hire a car at a day’s notice to flee the village.

“The government isn’t targeting the Taliban,� says Azka, her voice raised. “We don’t hear about any Taliban deaths. We’re the only victims.� As she speaks, Azka apologises for her tone and insists that she doesn’t favour the Taliban over the government. “We’re just caught in the middle -- we want both the Taliban and the government security forces out of our village.�

“I’m not sure who’s fighting who�

Yahya Abdullah, a public school teacher who also hails from Bhai Cheena, shies away from black and white categorisation emphasising that the situation in the tribal areas is more complicated than it seems. “I’m not sure who’s fighting who,� he says. “All I know is that I’ve been made a refugee in my own country.�

Like others from his village, Yahya is hard-pressed to complain about the Taliban. “They didn’t do anything wrong in our village,� he says. “They’d only take action against criminals. Most importantly, they’d deal with anyone who seized lands -- if someone had an ongoing land dispute, the Taliban would intervene and implement the community’s solution.�

The only thing Yahya feels was suspicious about the Taliban was their interest in stocking weapons. “There were always weapons in our village -- people keep their own at home -- but never so many as there are now. We used to ask each other, ‘Where are all these weapons coming from?’�

“The Taliban didn’t start the fighting�

To illustrate how confusing the war between the military and the militants is for residents of the tribal agencies, Yahya’s brother Mohammad recalls the day the Pakistan Army arrived in Bhai Cheena.

“I was walking down the road, and I saw that the army had arrived, being led by a tank. A local Taliban commander approached the army officers and asked them to retreat. When the forces did not withdraw, the Taliban made an announcement on the mosque’s loudspeaker telling the army to withdraw without destroying local homes and shops or offending women and children.

“Within seconds, the army started shooting and helicopters started bombing. The Taliban then began to fight the government forces, and the only thing that stopped this clash was a downpour.

“I’m a simple man, but from what I understand, the Taliban didn’t start the fighting. They were trying to save our village but the army didn’t listen.�

“I just want it to stop�

Hayat Khan, a young man with a henna-red beard from Khar in Bajaur Agency, cares less about who initiated the clash between militants and government forces. “I just want it to stop so that I can go home,� he says.

Like Yahya, though, Hayat stresses that the unfolding in scenario is tricky to resolve. He recalls what happened when his village formed a lashkar to drive out the Taliban in the hope that their absence would keep the Pakistan Army away too. “Our plan didn’t work,� he despondently admits. “The Taliban began attacking the lashkar instead of the government forces and so we ended up with a bigger mess of three-way fighting.�

Despite having experienced the “mess of three-way fighting,� Hayat does not think that Fata residents can be involved in plotting a solution to the tribal predicament. “The Taliban commanders and the army officers should meet and find a solution,� he says. To justify the exclusion of tribal residents, he explains that their maliks (village heads) could not be relied on to act as effective representatives. “Forget about our maliks,� he says. “They’ve either been targeted by the Taliban or they’ve joined the Taliban for money.�

#12 Posted by pavocavalry on January 24, 2009 10:10:31 pm



already USA and Indians are successfully using the tribals against pakistan army.


that's straight from the same place ijaz gul got his indo-israeli radar in kyrgystan being used to jam the communications of allah's army...

the famous think tank PIOMPA....

#10 Posted by Urstruly on January 24, 2009 6:59:15 pm


I do not know about Russia but China seems to have a very different approach in dealing with the so called "Islamic Extremism".


you think china is the model of how countries should deal with muslims?

funny..i do too...

I get a feeling that Pakistani elites will try to replicate Afghanistan model in Central Asia. Don't know what the various states are, but the ones closest to Pakistan and most amenable to Islamic indoctrination should be most heavily targeted by Pakistan.

In that, Tablighis should form the best and the first form of Pakistani attack. That seems logical given that Central Asian states have traditionally been part of the Soviet Union, and thus unlikely to be much interested in going down the Afghanistan route unless they are first Islamized sufficiently, by teaching them Islam.

If we think in terms of core competencies, THAT is Pakistan's core competence. And Pakistani elite will use that competence to the fullest.

Helping pakistan - advice from an indian

///////// from jang////
Our brilliant police
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Whenever a man and woman marry for love and flee to Karachi, their virtually illiterate relatives are easily able to trace and kill them, but the police are not able to locate any of the numerous mobile phone snatchers or car thieves in the city. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Shakir Lakhani

Karachi

/////
Shakir bhai,

Pakistan is an islamic country, and any one marrying for what you call as love is haram, it is against the book. Hence the police help the relatives to trace the couple and kill them, which by the way is not a crime in pakistan, as per the hoodood laws. The laws of pakistan is based on the book, and if you read the book, there is no mention of mobile phones or what should be done to the mobilr phone snatchers.

Hope my explanation helps you understand the situation so that you can live in peace.

RAW trying to separate Balochistan from Pakistan’
Sunday, January 25, 2009
ISLAMABAD: The leading newspaper of Sri Lanka, Daily Mirror, in its editorial has criticised the role the Indian intelligence agency (RAW) is playing in the regional countries to destabilise them. The editorial has specially referred to Pakistan.

It said: “Among its (RAW’s) most ambitious operations that are currently underway, is the move to separate Balochistan province from Pakistan by supporting (the) Balochistan Liberation Army.�
/////////////////

at last some one is listening.

"Russia however is different. The battle hardeened UZbecks in Afghanist are when going to go back all of the Muslim central Asia is going to finally break free of the shackles and cjains of the russian empire. The proof of this assertian is that Russia in its imperial hubris is allowing central asian Muslims to get trained in AZfghanistan, thinking that it is saving its occupation in Muslim central Asia but they are forgetting the law of nature that every action has an erqual and opposite reaction.... "

More nonsense one has not read on the Chowk. Uzbeks and war hardened? In which battle did the Uzbeks get hardened? The ex Soviet Republic of Uzbekistan is a dictatorship which does not brook any challenge least of all from the wahabists. The ruthless suppression of Andijan revolt is just an example.
A few years ago when the Uzbekistan govt realised that a lot of Paistanis were trying to foment trouble in their country through the local clergy, all Pakistanis were bundled out of Uzbekistan in a jiffy. Even Uzbekistan Airways stopped flying to Pakistan to deter the Pakistanis from coming to Uzbekistan.
Many armchair strategists from Pakistan are sold on the formation of the great pan Islamic federation of which Central Asian states and Pakistan would for a part.
Central Asian peoples are of Turkic descent and their languages are Turkic. They are as distinct from the Desi Pakistanis as the Algerians are from the Nigerians. They are firmly aligned to Russia primarily due to historical and cultural ties and partly due to the security this friendship affords them against Mullas from Afghanistan Pakistan Madaris.
If they look beyond Russia, they would like to emulate Turkey because of its modernist and secular polity and social structure.
No wonder the Americans are going to find an alternate supply route to Afghanistan through the CIS. Any progressive Muslim country will do its bit to ensure that the Mullas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are kept as far away from their own borders as possible.

the fact of the matter is that world over muslims are growing fastest,they are poorest and they will be used one way or other , either USA will use them against china or china and russia will use them against USA.not because the russians or chinese like muslims but to survive.cheapest soldiers in this world are the muslim masses.

already USA and Indians are successfully using the tribals against pakistan army.off course the tribals dont know who is using them .they think its a splinter group of al qaeda.low intensity war is complicated.
Agha Amin

Hard to predict if afghans will decide have ethinic states. Russian connection earlier got big taste of Power for nonpathans. There will not be old order as before and adjacent same ethinic states may encourage different nation asJinnah did if good seperation leaders emmerge.
It appears Obama not much different than Bush , big disappointment setting in peoples mind. Kind of dash for all optimism with pilotless airmachines attacking poor people and terrorists.America will get tired after 15 yeas and will go home. President Musharraf id doing servicing reminding americans on american soil saying pakistan needs to be more compensated that meger 10 Billion dollars. It appears Mr. Z is useing general to give to message and general does not mind geting used which brings more aid.With his depature all army has lost desire of fighting spirit as they feel insulted by treatent given to elected president.

I partially agree with the Hindus below that both China and Russia would not want anti-American forces to win, however, both have vested interests in lkeeping US trapped in this region. There are no two opinions that for western crusaders this is an unwinable war. The war benefits China because every penny that US spends today whther it is a piece of bread that an american child eats or a smart bomb that kills 10 of Afghan por Pakistani children come from borrowed money from China. For Russia, a weakened US is in its best interest since what Americans have done to them in east Europe very recently needs payback.

I do not know about Russia but China seems to have a very different approach in dealing with the so called "Islamic Extremism". Chinese are neither ideological nor they have a god - all they have is business interests. As compared to Soviet Russia, china opened up rest of the world for its Muslim community in early 80s when 1000s of Chinese Muslims were allowed to conduct business and perform Hajj going through Pakistan. The so called Muslim uprising in Xinxiang province is not for autonomy or shariah but it is for economic parity with Chinese Eastern provinces. Since Pakistan has opened up a conduit for chinese trde through Gawader the people in Xinxiang and the prime beneficieries for all business and trade that happens through that route. The Chinese response to bombing in this province during olympics is indictive of the political approach of Chinese rather than an American approcah of kill all.

Russia however is different. The battle hardeened UZbecks in Afghanist are when going to go back all of the Muslim central Asia is going to finally break free of the shackles and cjains of the russian empire. The proof of this assertian is that Russia in its imperial hubris is allowing central asian Muslims to get trained in AZfghanistan, thinking that it is saving its occupation in Muslim central Asia but they are forgetting the law of nature that every action has an erqual and opposite reaction....

Helping pakistan - advice from an indian

The pakis are always hoping that some one will help them, or they hope to get the geogrphic rent, by claiming that just the location of pakistan should be enough for others to cough up some money. The supplies to nato has been one of them, the pakis trying to black mail the nato. Now the russians have come forward and the indian road through iran is also operational.

All this sets the stage for the nato to say, pakis get stuffed, we are calling inb the B52s over fata.

That is the only option available to nato, the same mechanism that drove the al quida out of afghanistan. The b52s and daisy cutters are the only ones that can call the bluff of the pakis that the terrain is what is preventiong them from taking out alquida.

This will force the alquida to m,ove into the paki cities and there after the resizing of pakistan will not be far away.

from dawn of today

Russia to allow cargo for Afghanistan


MOSCOW, Jan 23: President Dmitry Medvedev has said that Moscow is ready to help stabilise the situation in Afghanistan by allowing the United States and others to ship cargo intended for coalition forces in the war-torn country across Russian territory.

During his visit to Uzbekistan on Friday, Mr Medvedev said that Russia was also prepared to help international efforts to combat drug-trafficking and terrorism in Afghanistan.

He voiced hope that US President Barack Obama’s administration would do better than its predecessors in stabilising Afghanistan.

“Let’s hope the new US administration will be more successful than the previous one in dealing with the Afghan settlement,� he said on television.

Mr Medvedev’s comments appeared to reflect the Kremlin’s wish to mend ties with Washington, which deteriorated under the administration of George W. Bush.

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Tragedy of a nation.

When india provided the info, paki dismissed them as not evidence. Now the very same paki govt is taking a different tune. It is sad that a nation created for islam will be so lost in governing....let me check the book, one should not forget that every PM and president takes oath telling that pakistan will be rules by the book and the sharia. There in lies the problem. The book doesnot give any instruction on how to respond to a dossier.

That is the very reason why all the islamic countries are so bad in governing and in diplomacy. That is teh reason why the likes of pakistan never promote education. They only promote madrassas.

from dawn of today///////
Pakistan taking Indian dossier "extremely seriously"

Probe is on and results will come soon, says Gilani

Islamabad: Pakistan is taking India's dossier on the Mumbai terror attacks "extremely seriously" and will "have to act fast" to complete its probe, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has said.

"We are taking it [the dossier] extremely seriously, and we have already started [an] investigation and the results will come soon," he told the Financial Times daily in an interview.

Mr. Gilani also hinted that Pakistan could consider extraditing terror suspects to India if bilateral relations were normalised.

Replying to a question whether he would ever agree to extradition of suspects to India, the Premier said: "So far there is no such thing. But that depends on our normalisation of relations."