Afghanistan Strategic Choices for USA and Regional Actors

Another nonsense of an article.

Both China and Russia know the dangers of allowing the islamists to be successful in Afghanistan, i.e. the islamists would then move to causing trouble in provinces of China and Russia which have significant muslim population. The islamists have a global agenda so they wouldn't stop with Afghanistan. I hope Iran learns the lesson too, that the Sunni extremists would then gun for Iranian blood.

"It is naive to think that the USA came to Afghanistan to deal with the Talibs."

Fine! But without explaining why the US is in Afghanistan, the whole options mentioned for all countries are meaningless.

What is so important in Afghanistan that the US would keep its occupation at all costs thus triggering a major upheaval in the area that no power in the world would be able to manage.

Why would the US escalate the problems in the area considering the widening financial crisis in the US which would eventually impact US spendings outside the US. Defense or otherwise.

Agha:

1. You have not addressed the most fundamental question, "but why the U.S. would remain engaged in that region?".

2. Regarding nuclear, there are ways to take care, one of them is let Pakistan drop it on someone, sometime and somewhere, if India is smart it will not let it happen in India; or get Israelis take care of it. Latter is now possible through Bagram base.

3. Russia and China getting involved in your fashion is Islamists dream not strategy.

4. The U.S. has limited strategic interest in that region, other than taking care of terrorism. If it cannot get Pakistan to solve it, the U.S. will use it. The U.S. gains nothing from long term presence. It, like the British earlier, will create "Chaotic Buffer" and leave it to warring factions to take care of each other and thus maintain the Chaotic Buffer.

5. Soon it might need Taliban breakaways more than Pakistan army for this purpose. This breakaway will happen in Obama administration. You, like I will witness it.

6. It will maintain carrot ($$$, and Viagra) available for the breakway also, and stick (drones) for others.

7. Can talibs remain united under all circumstances? This is a question. History of the region does not suggest such long lasting unity.

what was it? a movie plot?

amazing, instead of thinking how to correct things, people are dreaming wild about how they can get some support to spread their killings... And so clueless to dream that China will help Islamists to confront USA...

such wild dreams do not reflect healthy state of mind...

and who ia marking red flags, this red-flagger should be flogged or banned...

Pak ready to amend anti-terror laws: Gilani
25 Jan 2009, 0054 hrs IST, TNN
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NEW DELHI: Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has said that Pakistan is ready to amend its anti-terror laws to facilitate the prosecution
of accused in terror related acts which take place outside the country.

Gilani made the statement in an interview to `Financial Times' in response to a question about Pakistan's response to the Mumbai killings.

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the humiliation of a nation continues.

Tragedy of a nation.

When india provided the info, paki dismissed them as not evidence. Now the very same paki govt is taking a different tune. It is sad that a nation created for islam will be so lost in governing....let me check the book, one should not forget that every PM and president takes oath telling that pakistan will be rules by the book and the sharia. There in lies the problem. The book doesnot give any instruction on how to respond to a dossier.

That is the very reason why all the islamic countries are so bad in governing and in diplomacy. That is teh reason why the likes of pakistan never promote education. They only promote madrassas.

from dawn of today///////
Pakistan taking Indian dossier "extremely seriously"

Probe is on and results will come soon, says Gilani

Islamabad: Pakistan is taking India's dossier on the Mumbai terror attacks "extremely seriously" and will "have to act fast" to complete its probe, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has said.

"We are taking it [the dossier] extremely seriously, and we have already started [an] investigation and the results will come soon," he told the Financial Times daily in an interview.

Mr. Gilani also hinted that Pakistan could consider extraditing terror suspects to India if bilateral relations were normalised.

Replying to a question whether he would ever agree to extradition of suspects to India, the Premier said: "So far there is no such thing. But that depends on our normalisation of relations."

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Helping pakistan - advice from an indian

The pakis are always hoping that some one will help them, or they hope to get the geogrphic rent, by claiming that just the location of pakistan should be enough for others to cough up some money. The supplies to nato has been one of them, the pakis trying to black mail the nato. Now the russians have come forward and the indian road through iran is also operational.

All this sets the stage for the nato to say, pakis get stuffed, we are calling inb the B52s over fata.

That is the only option available to nato, the same mechanism that drove the al quida out of afghanistan. The b52s and daisy cutters are the only ones that can call the bluff of the pakis that the terrain is what is preventiong them from taking out alquida.

This will force the alquida to m,ove into the paki cities and there after the resizing of pakistan will not be far away.

from dawn of today

Russia to allow cargo for Afghanistan


MOSCOW, Jan 23: President Dmitry Medvedev has said that Moscow is ready to help stabilise the situation in Afghanistan by allowing the United States and others to ship cargo intended for coalition forces in the war-torn country across Russian territory.

During his visit to Uzbekistan on Friday, Mr Medvedev said that Russia was also prepared to help international efforts to combat drug-trafficking and terrorism in Afghanistan.

He voiced hope that US President Barack Obama’s administration would do better than its predecessors in stabilising Afghanistan.

“Let’s hope the new US administration will be more successful than the previous one in dealing with the Afghan settlement,� he said on television.

Mr Medvedev’s comments appeared to reflect the Kremlin’s wish to mend ties with Washington, which deteriorated under the administration of George W. Bush.

I partially agree with the Hindus below that both China and Russia would not want anti-American forces to win, however, both have vested interests in lkeeping US trapped in this region. There are no two opinions that for western crusaders this is an unwinable war. The war benefits China because every penny that US spends today whther it is a piece of bread that an american child eats or a smart bomb that kills 10 of Afghan por Pakistani children come from borrowed money from China. For Russia, a weakened US is in its best interest since what Americans have done to them in east Europe very recently needs payback.

I do not know about Russia but China seems to have a very different approach in dealing with the so called "Islamic Extremism". Chinese are neither ideological nor they have a god - all they have is business interests. As compared to Soviet Russia, china opened up rest of the world for its Muslim community in early 80s when 1000s of Chinese Muslims were allowed to conduct business and perform Hajj going through Pakistan. The so called Muslim uprising in Xinxiang province is not for autonomy or shariah but it is for economic parity with Chinese Eastern provinces. Since Pakistan has opened up a conduit for chinese trde through Gawader the people in Xinxiang and the prime beneficieries for all business and trade that happens through that route. The Chinese response to bombing in this province during olympics is indictive of the political approach of Chinese rather than an American approcah of kill all.

Russia however is different. The battle hardeened UZbecks in Afghanist are when going to go back all of the Muslim central Asia is going to finally break free of the shackles and cjains of the russian empire. The proof of this assertian is that Russia in its imperial hubris is allowing central asian Muslims to get trained in AZfghanistan, thinking that it is saving its occupation in Muslim central Asia but they are forgetting the law of nature that every action has an erqual and opposite reaction....

Hard to predict if afghans will decide have ethinic states. Russian connection earlier got big taste of Power for nonpathans. There will not be old order as before and adjacent same ethinic states may encourage different nation asJinnah did if good seperation leaders emmerge.
It appears Obama not much different than Bush , big disappointment setting in peoples mind. Kind of dash for all optimism with pilotless airmachines attacking poor people and terrorists.America will get tired after 15 yeas and will go home. President Musharraf id doing servicing reminding americans on american soil saying pakistan needs to be more compensated that meger 10 Billion dollars. It appears Mr. Z is useing general to give to message and general does not mind geting used which brings more aid.With his depature all army has lost desire of fighting spirit as they feel insulted by treatent given to elected president.

the fact of the matter is that world over muslims are growing fastest,they are poorest and they will be used one way or other , either USA will use them against china or china and russia will use them against USA.not because the russians or chinese like muslims but to survive.cheapest soldiers in this world are the muslim masses.

already USA and Indians are successfully using the tribals against pakistan army.off course the tribals dont know who is using them .they think its a splinter group of al qaeda.low intensity war is complicated.
Agha Amin

"Russia however is different. The battle hardeened UZbecks in Afghanist are when going to go back all of the Muslim central Asia is going to finally break free of the shackles and cjains of the russian empire. The proof of this assertian is that Russia in its imperial hubris is allowing central asian Muslims to get trained in AZfghanistan, thinking that it is saving its occupation in Muslim central Asia but they are forgetting the law of nature that every action has an erqual and opposite reaction.... "

More nonsense one has not read on the Chowk. Uzbeks and war hardened? In which battle did the Uzbeks get hardened? The ex Soviet Republic of Uzbekistan is a dictatorship which does not brook any challenge least of all from the wahabists. The ruthless suppression of Andijan revolt is just an example.
A few years ago when the Uzbekistan govt realised that a lot of Paistanis were trying to foment trouble in their country through the local clergy, all Pakistanis were bundled out of Uzbekistan in a jiffy. Even Uzbekistan Airways stopped flying to Pakistan to deter the Pakistanis from coming to Uzbekistan.
Many armchair strategists from Pakistan are sold on the formation of the great pan Islamic federation of which Central Asian states and Pakistan would for a part.
Central Asian peoples are of Turkic descent and their languages are Turkic. They are as distinct from the Desi Pakistanis as the Algerians are from the Nigerians. They are firmly aligned to Russia primarily due to historical and cultural ties and partly due to the security this friendship affords them against Mullas from Afghanistan Pakistan Madaris.
If they look beyond Russia, they would like to emulate Turkey because of its modernist and secular polity and social structure.
No wonder the Americans are going to find an alternate supply route to Afghanistan through the CIS. Any progressive Muslim country will do its bit to ensure that the Mullas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are kept as far away from their own borders as possible.

RAW trying to separate Balochistan from Pakistan’
Sunday, January 25, 2009
ISLAMABAD: The leading newspaper of Sri Lanka, Daily Mirror, in its editorial has criticised the role the Indian intelligence agency (RAW) is playing in the regional countries to destabilise them. The editorial has specially referred to Pakistan.

It said: “Among its (RAW’s) most ambitious operations that are currently underway, is the move to separate Balochistan province from Pakistan by supporting (the) Balochistan Liberation Army.�
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at last some one is listening.

Helping pakistan - advice from an indian

///////// from jang////
Our brilliant police
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Whenever a man and woman marry for love and flee to Karachi, their virtually illiterate relatives are easily able to trace and kill them, but the police are not able to locate any of the numerous mobile phone snatchers or car thieves in the city. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Shakir Lakhani

Karachi

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Shakir bhai,

Pakistan is an islamic country, and any one marrying for what you call as love is haram, it is against the book. Hence the police help the relatives to trace the couple and kill them, which by the way is not a crime in pakistan, as per the hoodood laws. The laws of pakistan is based on the book, and if you read the book, there is no mention of mobile phones or what should be done to the mobilr phone snatchers.

Hope my explanation helps you understand the situation so that you can live in peace.

I get a feeling that Pakistani elites will try to replicate Afghanistan model in Central Asia. Don't know what the various states are, but the ones closest to Pakistan and most amenable to Islamic indoctrination should be most heavily targeted by Pakistan.

In that, Tablighis should form the best and the first form of Pakistani attack. That seems logical given that Central Asian states have traditionally been part of the Soviet Union, and thus unlikely to be much interested in going down the Afghanistan route unless they are first Islamized sufficiently, by teaching them Islam.

If we think in terms of core competencies, THAT is Pakistan's core competence. And Pakistani elite will use that competence to the fullest.