Solving the Afghan Puzzle

Re: # 11

Stuka

Many of the professional class people in Pakistan and abroad generally share many common ideas such as the hatred of Islamic extremism and its negative impact on our country. Problem here is that politics are being dominated by the use of violence and the right wing extremist with establishment patronization have monopolized media and public attention. Take Swat for example, ANP being a secular party was voted into power yet the Taliban have usurped power through the use of violence and the state has conceded. The popular and majority vote went for moderate leadership yet we have the Taliban dictating terms.

As for the Iranian exile feeling, well I have not yet surrendered my green passport nor have I abandoned my home in Karachi, yes we do feel disgusted and frustrated by the situation but then the hatred of every thing Taliban and its backers is growing, all we need is the same kind of political and state patronage given to these barbarians and change can be a reality.

RF786: Good post. Something like the Geneva Accords is probably the best bet - interesting that Pakistan under Junejo agreed to it, but Zia circumvented it. Problem with your proposed solution is that it is likely to find no takers in Pakistan itself. Pardon my saying so, but in the years I have read your posts, you seem to be more and more the minority in your own country. In our perspective (Indians, Americans, non fundamentalist Muslims) you may be the solution, but I sometimes get the feeling that you are like the Iranian exiles in the US who call themselves Persian in order to detach themselves from the islamic revolution.

Re: # 9

Rakesh

Given the information available your suggested framework assumes the path of least resistence, meaning takes a pragmatic approach for the readily available pieces of differing interests. Short term, temporary solutions may ease the pain for the immediate future but fail to alleviate the pain and sufferings in the long run.

a) There is no need for a official declaration, acknowledgemnt and resentment will be enough. Once that happens, global funding would be scrutinized and any export of extremist ideas checked at the source. As for the oil reserves, their very existence depends on rest of the world buying their product, with oil prices back to realistic levels, the arrogance and hubris has abated but not disappeared.

b) Severing the "Financial" umbilical cord with emphasis on financial. Saudization of the Islamic world has been a slow and grinding process but its effects are showing in the local inhabitants who have started to ape foreign values. This is the most important aspect of the solution, no matter what the Government or rest of the world tries, if they do not find another source of funding for Pakistan then all of their reformation attempts will be temporary.

c) Battle between Sunnis and Shias has been going on since the Irananian revolution in 1979 followed by Saudi efforts to stop the Shia uprising. Sectarian murders had become the norm in the nineties and situation had become worse with the arrival of taliban who openly propmoted and supported anti-shia activities. Inviting Iranians to the table is not an option but a neccessity, not only are they an interested regional power they can play a major role in diffusing this sectarian warfare. Sunni side can be represented by the Pakhtoon or Pakistani representatives. But what is important is to recognize the varying interests and potential pressure points.

As for your suggestion regarding the moderate Taliban, why not BUT there should be no mercy for those involved in criminal activites or refuse to sit down and talk.


Finally, this is a ideological war that needs alternative ideologies supported by strong evidence or promises of better future. Pakistan and Afghanistan both need less religion and more economics with no special attachments.

Re: # 4

Rf786 - Interestingly, I think the framework I propose is less simple-minded than the solutions you propose. What is important to realise is that we have to be realistic with our solutions.

I don't understand how you think your solutions are realistic given the political and foreign relations considerations in the world. How does one a) declare Saudi Arabia a terrorist state when they are a huge source of oil and the government is cooperating actively? b)severing relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, two sovereign states? c) involving Iran without creating a Sunni-Shia battle across the region?

Not all the Taliban are religious freaks. Some surely would have got involved for the money and power, as opposed to the ideology, and accumulated followers and lands over time. They are hence more malleable. If we can separate them from the hardline ideologues, and offer them power and authority in the Afghan administration in return for sacrificing their Taliban connections and giving information on their former colleagues then we can get somewhere.

Re: # 3 Agha

The Simla Agreement stands annuled since 1984 after Indian aggression and occupation of Siachin. I think American best option is Negroponte. Based on his experinece in South America - the death squads and establishment of a civilian militia to counter Taliban would have been Americas best option. Holbrook will fail - no doubt. I think Obama will have to bring back Negroponte to establish that militia mostly based upon PPP workers.

www.rep-am.com/News/393583.txt

Dim wit G,

Pl tell me when did your grandpa's brain came down to the foreskin of the missile. No wonder they ask first to chop off the foreskin ie the brain in case of non-saudi ga.du convertee.

Testicularly Ga.du aka tahmed,

It seems you not only lost the testicles in the 7th century desert of Arabaia but also the brains. Sati is history in India and dowry is getting there. Please go through these
urls:

http://www.buffalonews.com/494/story/578644.html

http://www.r ep-am.com/News/393583.txt

These are not uneducated unIslmic folks btw.

http://www.topnews.in/male-rape-victim-pakistan-under-trauma-2124742

This is baki slumdog penniless.

Dim wit G,

Pl tell me when did your grandpa's brain came down to the foreskin of the missile. No wonder they ask first to chop off the foreskin ie the brain in case of non-saudi ga.du convertee.

Testicularly Ga.du aka tahmed,

It seems you not only lost the testicles in the 7th century desert of Arabaia but also the brains. Sati is history in India and dowry is getting there. Please go through these
urls:

http://www.buffalonews.com/494/story/578644.html

http://www.r ep-am.com/News/393583.txt

These are not uneducated unIslmic folks btw.

http://www.topnews.in/male-rape-victim-pakistan-under-trauma-2124742

This is baki slumdog penniless.

Dear writer

Such simple minded articles do little but fill the empty void of populist newspapers.

This is a war of ideologies inspired and funded by wealthy Saudis or locals of Saudi origins. If rest of the world wants to end this ugly saga then they must put the state of Saudi Arabia as the theatre of extremism and source of Islamic problems.

Peace for Afghanistan needs active participation of Iran and Russia along with a reformed Pakistan. Reformation process of Pakistan is already in place and is undergoing stress testing, failure would mean total collapse. If the Americans really want to do the Pakistanis some favor then the best thing they could do is severe the Pak-Sadi umbilical cord of financial dependence.

Involving Iran will counterbalance Saudi interest and protect the minority interests whereas Russian engagement can revive some of the traditional leadership of Afghanistan beside the military and financial support Russians can bring to the table.

I have not mentioned the Indians but their involvement is a given, this crises needs a regional solution and with 100 million plus Muslims India can be a vital ally against this extremist ideology.

its not possible to negotiate with the talibans

How Far will USA fail and succeed-How far can Obama or Holbrooke go

A.H Amin

How Far will USA fail and succeedAgha H AminWhile Obama in personal terms did well and became the first mixed origin man to become US president it is unfair to expect many changes that Obama or his team can bring.Holbrooke may be giant of a man but his stature has to be judged in correlation to the various complicated and often overwhv velming forces of history.Three major foreign policy issues confront USA.The Arab Israel Issue,the Afghanitan issue and the India Pakistan issue.In the background is the more formidable albeit more intangible issue of Islamic extremism.The first and last issues above listed include state actors and the Afghan issue is a combination of non state and state actors.It appears that Obama can only have a semblance of success in the Arab Israel Issue.That is if he can just pursue the brilliant plan put forward by Rabbi Michael Lerner,pushing into the garbage all nonsense that the state department pen pusher clerk type burueaucrats or the crafty think tanks may try to put forward.In Afghanistan no amount of Holbrookes can succeed.Here the issue is a complex one.With more than 11 states having extreme outlooks about whether the Talibans should be or should not be allowed to rule Afghanistan.The issue is highly complex.In Bosnia the issue was far simpler with Russia far away and Europe extremely divided.Nor were the mild Bosnian Muslims a threat to Europe.In Afghanistan we have Russia,Iran,India,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,Kirgizistan,Turkmenistan,Kazakhastan,Chi na,whole of NATO as well as USA against Taliban whose only possible vallies are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.Where will Holbrooke fit in in this omplex game as the magician who had achieved a miracle at Dayton ?Afghanistan is and will remain for many decades a catch 22 for the USA.It is not like a Vietnam from which the USA can withdraw.The Vietnamese were a race using an ideology to survive.In Afghanistan its an ideology with multiple races that the USA is fighting.In Vietnam withdrawal was an option.In Afghanistan withdrawal will not lead to a solution but to another more bitter and deadly phase of the war.If the USA withdraws it will lose and if it stays it will continue to suffer with no end in sight for many decades.This is the tragedy of USA's situation in Afghanistan.Even if thve USA withdraws the Afghan civil war would continue and other state actors would intervene,while the USA would lose all allies that it had created in Afghanistan.So if we have to grade USA in Afghanistan the solution is not in sight.Holbrooke will fail.Now we come to Kashmir.The Pakistani establishment ,and I will not call it a state because Pakistan is controlled by a small clique of about 1000 families and a pathetic equation of highly corrupt politicians and respectably corrupt generals .Now these 1000 families which constitute the Pakistani establishment are trying to sell the idea to the USA is that Kashmir issue is solved the threat to world peace in shape of nuclear war can be avoided.As an ex soldier I do not think that Kashmir would solve the issue.Kashmir resolved or not resolved the Indo Pak conflict will continue till one party is defeated or both or one of the two disintegrate.Seen in this context what would poor Holbrooke do.He will in the end emerge as a shattered ,immensely weakened and totally confused man.In any case in terms of international law Pakistan and India by agreed terms of Simla Accord of 1973 cannot allow a third party to decide Kashmir Issue.So good luck to Holbrooke , a man of substance , from whom too much should not be expected.What he is expected to do is what no single man can achieve.The Pakistani state should forget about any hope of getting Kashmir through Holbrooke .If Pakistans politicians and generals can preserve what is left of Pakistan , posterity will remember them as heroes.From the type of strategy or more correctly apology of strategy that the Pakistani state is purusing in Frontier and Balochistan , even preserving what is left of Pakistan would be a great achievement.Lastly with economic depression engulfing USA and the West little should be hoped from USA or Obama or Holbrooke.All would be at a loss and all should be commended if they can retain what they have rather than doing what no one could do.Little good should be accepted.In this age the guiding preept should be Neither Hope Nor Fear.


Agha Amin

A very interesting and troubling article.

We can see the problems but the answers are a gordian knot.

All terrorists also love their weapons and the excitement of terrorist action. The `Macho' feeling will make it very difficult to persuade them to lay down their weapons and to desist from terrorism especially if they feel that it has religious sanction.

Slow as it may be, if they can be made to believe that terrorism does not have the sanction of Islam, Muhammed or Allah, it might help to dissuade them. But despite the recent Fatwahs of 6,000 mullas against terrorism where are there religious authorities closer to home who have the courage to preach against terrorism.

A better strategy would be to apologize to Mullah Omar and make him understand that if the Arab ridden Al-Qaeda was so brave, it would have chosen its home countries to wage the war it so badly wants to wage on the US and its cronies in the middle east.

Its no secret that the Arabs only use the rest of the Muslim world as cannon fodder to enhance their propaganda and hatred against Jews and the West. This can be very easily figured out when you see the leadership of these Arab groups. How many of them are non-Arabs?