Common Pakistanis US Foreign Policy

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/03/30/afghanistan/

By Juan Cole
March 30, 2009 | President Barack Obama may or may not be doing the right thing in Afghanistan, but the rationale he gave for it on Friday is almost certainly wrong. Obama has presented us with a 21st century version of the domino theory. The U.S. is not, contrary to what the president said, mainly fighting "al-Qaida" in Afghanistan. In blaming everything on al-Qaida, Obama broke with his pledge of straight talk to the public and fell back on Bush-style boogeymen and implausible conspiracy theories.

Obama realizes that after seven years, Afghanistan war fatigue has begun to set in with the American people. Some 51 percent of Americans now oppose the Afghanistan war, and 64 percent of Democrats do. The president is therefore escalating in the teeth of substantial domestic opposition, especially from his own party, as voters worry about spending billions more dollars abroad while the U.S. economy is in serious trouble.
This latter-day domino theory of al-Qaida takeovers in South Asia is just as implausible as its earlier iteration in Southeast Asia (ask Thailand or the Philippines). Most of the allegations are not true or are vastly exaggerated. There are very few al-Qaida fighters based in Afghanistan proper. What is being called the "Taliban" is mostly not Taliban at all (in the sense of seminary graduates loyal to Mullah Omar). The groups being branded "Taliban" only have substantial influence in 8 to 10 percent of Afghanistan, and only 4 percent of Afghans say they support them. Some 58 percent of Afghans say that a return of the Taliban is the biggest threat to their country, but almost no one expects it to happen. Moreover, with regard to Pakistan, there is no danger of militants based in the remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) taking over that country or "killing" it.

The Kabul government is not on the verge of falling to the Taliban. The Afghan government has 80,000 troops, who benefit from close U.S. air support, and the total number of Taliban fighters in the Pashtun provinces is estimated at 10,000 to 15,000. Kabul is in danger of losing control of some villages in the provinces to dissident Pashtun warlords styled "Taliban," though it is not clear why the new Afghan army could not expel them if they did so. A smaller, poorly equipped Northern Alliance army defeated 60,000 Taliban with U.S. air support in 2001. And there is no prospect of "al-Qaida" reestablishing bases in Afghanistan from which it could attack the United States. If al-Qaida did come back to Afghanistan, it could simply be bombed and would be attacked by the new Afghan army."

RiazHaq writes "I think the Obama policy offers an opening to fundamentally change the conflict for Pakistan to facilitate the US exit from the region and preserve Pakistan's strategic interests"

The country is collapsing at the seems and he talks about "strategic interests". Mian jee, get real and get an education, will you ask the 'homeless person' who is scrambling through garbage cans to eat to look after his 'strategic interests'?

TNITC masadi

Obama's "exit strategy" from Afghanistan involves the troops first going to baluchistan and from there towards Iran, leaving their droppings (military bases) in both areas... RiazHaq is a sellout, spineless worshipper of the Americans and their dictators...

TNITC msadi

A picture of US exit strategy from Afghanistan is beginning to emerge as the details of President Barack Obama's new regional strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan are scrutinized.

Explicitly talking to CBS 60 Minutes about exit a week before unveiling his strategy, Mr. Obama said, "So what we're looking for is a comprehensive strategy. And there's got to be an exit strategy. There's got to be a sense that this is not perpetual drift."

I think the Obama policy offers an opening to fundamentally change the conflict for Pakistan to facilitate the US exit from the region and preserve Pakistan's strategic interests, if the Pakistani leadership plays its cards right by addressing a couple of critical differences between the US and Pakistan.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

#137 Posted by hamidm2 on March 29, 2009 7:34:40 pm

why don't you also think of ponies...after all, in pakiworld, thinking of a thing makes it happen..

if wishes were horses....

.... i think pakistan should focus on starting a full fledged rebellion by indian moslems led by deobandis ...... think of all the trouble a hundred and fifty million jihadis can cause!

#135 hurting very bad??

Pakistan must be rejoicing at the aid of 1.5 billion dollors per year for next 5 years.

What have they done to get this free aid, in these recession times.

They export terrorism and get free money.

Re: # 131 "if the indian establishment sits on it's ass, there's not a god damned thing anyone can do.."

I fear that is happening after some initial success. With the various events such as Sri-lanka players attack, Long-march (Sharif/Lawyers) and the upcoming elections in India etc. everybody seems to have forgotten the Bombay attack.

Pakistan is again out of the hook and nothing concrete will get done to stop the terrorism, till the next attack.

arjun:

"in any case, the bombay attack was just a pin prick in the long term."

Maybe, but it has played havoc in the short run, esp. in the tourism industry. I have just returned after spending a few months in India and visiting the places most visited by tourists - Delhi, Mumbai, Kerala and Rajasthan: everywhere, people are complaining about the lack of tourists and how foreigners cancelled their bookings after the Mumbai attack - the showpiece "Palace on Wheels" is running almost empty.

Re: # 29 "Our situation is like poor woman forced in prostitution and Amereca is saying we should enjoy."

LOL....Ho..Ho...Ho...I have never seen a better self-realization from a Pakistani of the current US/Pak relationship.

But on a serious note, I have never understood this strange relationship. Both countries swore to be having strong relations (friendship) and fighting the war on terrorism. But Pakistan has made itself a laughing stock, by getting bombarded by its best friend. I guess America has every right to treat the way they like with Pakistan, as they are paying money for it, without which Pakistan cannot survive. If Pakistan wants its respect and rightful place, first it must stand on its feet and in a rightful manner.

#129 Posted by dost_mittar on March 29, 2009 4:59:16 pm


And finally, I will be happy if I am wrong and Obama does indeed pressure Pakistan to end its clandestine support of jihadis against India.


Now that would be a foolish thing for india to expect obama or anyone else to do. like the bible says(actually it doesn't) god only helps those who helps themselves..

india has many options..crank up the BLA, cut down the water etc etc...if the indian establishment sits on it's ass, there's not a god damned thing anyone can do..

in any case, the bombay attack was just a pin prick in the long term...it will have no real strategic impact on the long term picture..unlike, say, the marriot or lahore attacks....indian randi rona doesn't equate to long term harm...

#127 Posted by dost_mittar on March 29, 2009 4:55:44 pm


I do not see anything in your postings that goes against my interpretation of the events.


You said there was no talk about dismantling of the terrorist infrastructure in pakiland...that clearly isn't the case..


In the long run, however, the Pak strategy of supporting LET while fighting Al Qaeda may work against Pakistan


may? 8000 pakis were whacked just last year by products of the roses are red islamic revolution...

did you hear about the afghan and paki taliban joining forces against the US?

did you read some of the articles people have posted about how the CIA etc think the LeT is part of the global jihad..same as AQ..how the LeT is training brit-pakis, the people most likely to commit the next act of terrorism against the UK...

arjun:

And finally, I will be happy if I am wrong and Obama does indeed pressure Pakistan to end its clandestine support of jihadis against India.

the jihadi genie is out of the bottle...

from the times, UK

How security forces got the message loud and clear from man behind 'Radio Taleban'

Stuart Ramsay

Mohammed Ali is one of the masterminds of the Taleban campaign that has brought the security forces in the Swat Valley to their knees.

On the FM radio system that he helped to set up in Swat to spread the message of the Taleban, he announced the names of people who deserved to die, sometimes adding the names of their children and the schools they attended. He is also regarded as the main strategist behind a two-year suicide bombing campaign against government buildings, military installations, schools and individuals that forced the Government to accept a Taleban-administered mini-state where Sharia is applied.

Using the name Nadar, which means fearless, he told radio listeners: “I like the sound of the death rattle when army people are slaughtered. I want to hear that every day.�

Now in a disguised and guarded safehouse in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, close to the Afghanistan border, he sits in front of me. It is the first time that he has left the Swat region, which was once a holiday resort, for months.

“We follow the law of Islam. The Army burnt 5,551 copies of the Holy Koran. Innocent boys and girls were killed so it does not seem wrong for us to kill someone in that way,� he said. “We are struggling for sharia. We will go to jihad and it will remain to the end of time if they deny us.

“In Pakistan we are struggling to achieve what we have been told we should achieve, and that is sharia through the land. We have relations with our brothers in Afghanistan because they want what we want,� he added.

The fractured grip on power that Islamabad has on Pakistan is causing concern in Britain, the US and India.

Swat, which is 100 miles north of the capital, may never be the same again and the Taleban may not be contained easily there. The elders commanded by Mohammed Ali oversee an organised and brutal militia. Their latest propaganda videos show recruits training at camps in the mountains, where they are taught unarmed fighting techniques, shooting and suicide bomb preparation.

Pakistan denied the existence of the camps but the Taleban said that the videos were filmed only a few weeks ago. A large part of the film is dedicated to suicide bombing. The pictures show young men, grinning with pleasure as their hooded colleagues hug them and congratulate them on their decision to blow themselves up for the cause.

The men are shown strapping on suicide vests or checking cars and vans packed with explosives. The attacks and the aftermath are filmed - the carnage, bodies and grieving relatives are depicted as victories.

In Pakistan the bomb attacks are an almost daily occurrence and have been effective enough in Swat to secure the Taleban a new haven in the heart of Pakistan.

Stuart Ramsay is the chief correspondent for Sky News. Watch highlights of Pakistan: Terror's Front Line on Skynews.com

arjun:

I do not see anything in your postings that goes against my interpretation of the events. For more revealing were the PBS interviews with Holbrook and Gen. Petrias; they both seemed to understand Pakistani ISI's complicity in the Afghan war, but still talked about working with their Pakistani "partners" to deal with the situation.

The way I see it Pakistani and US interests are not in conflict in Afghanistan, they are both eager to prevent Af-Pak territory to be used against Western targets. In the long run, however, the Pak strategy of supporting LET while fighting Al Qaeda may work against Pakistan, as you keep reminding with your "roses are red" song.