Obama's Regional Strategy and India

Nice article on Indians in Egypt in an Egyptian magazine...
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June 2009

http://www.egypttoday.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=8517


Color Me Indian

The Indian community thrives in Egypt, thanks to our cultural affinities and the Indian worldview of tolerance for religious and social diversity

By Ethar El-Katatney
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In recent years, the number of Indian tourists visiting Egypt has surged. According to the Egyptian Tourism Authority, 47,000 Indians visited the country in 2005; that number almost doubled within two years, with 90,000 Indians visiting in 2008 — a number that has already been reached in 2009 thus far.

Along with their visiting counterparts, the resident Indian community in Egypt has increased substantially, and much of this can be attributed to economic relations between the two nations. The trade relationship that began during the Pharaonic era is now booming, worth almost $3.5 billion (LE 19.42 billion) in 2007, quadrupled from $700 million (LE 3.88 billion) in 2003.
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Re: # 42

Dost sahib:

"...it is also important for India to address the serious social tensions which give rise to problems like the Naxalite terrorism; Naxals are nothing but disaffected youth who rebel against the oppression of an extreme unjust social order in the areas where they are active..."

You are absolutely correct. CMD of ITC is a friend of mine and has direct experience in setting up a venture in Naxalite areas of Andhra. According to him, at that time he was responsible for setting up of one of the largest tobacco processing plant for ITC in that area. Naxalites came to him and told him that ITC would not be allowed to set up any such venture. My friend was able to create a partnership with them so that they gained employment, healtcare, housing and school, and ITC got the operation going. Today, it is one of the most successful operation for ITC. This turned him into a proponent of rural and tribal area enterprises. He is now retired and lives in New Delhi.

Re: # 42
DM: "Just a minor point: the jewish lobby exists only for Jewish/Israeli interests. It did not lend its weight in support of the nuclear deal and, if India wants to be closer to Iran, it would oppose India as well."

Israel lobby had the power to scuttle the US-India nuke deal, but it didn't do it. Israel lobby also welcomed India's vote for US-sponsored Security Council resolution against Iran's nuke ambitions.

India policy-makers and Washington lobbyists have long believed and decided that the road to success at Capital Hill in Washington goes through Israel.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

hope that indian policy makers have similar opinions as DM and Anil.

So summary is that: as always relying on outside support was never an option for India, nor it is now and Obama is less reliable for India then even Bush was.
Nor can India blackmail anyone like Pakistan neither in short term nor in long term.

In short term India will be troubled by all sorts of adversaries, be it Obama's ambition in region or vis a vis Islamic world, or Islamic world's underlying dislike for India, or China's tactics to keep creating trouble for India at all fronts. But in long term all of them may need to support India to some extent for their own advantage. This predicts a slow but steady growth for India in both political as well economic clout provided India's internal security remains good.

anil:

I mostly agree. In addition to economics, it is also important for India to address the serious social tensions which give rise to problems like the Naxalite terrorism; Naxals are nothing but disaffected youth who rebel against the oppression of an extreme unjust social order in the areas where they are active. Personally, I would also like India to address the Kashmir problems, not for the sake of Pakistan or even the umma-oriented Kashmiris whose insurgency is nothing but Islamic separatism, but for the sake of India and Indians.

Just a minor point: the jewish lobby exists only for Jewish/Israeli interests. It did not lend its weight in support of the nuclear deal and, if India wants to be closer to Iran, it would oppose India as well.

antimuslim comments.blasphamy

Dost:

The current priority of the U.S. in that part of the world does not fall in India’s sphere of priorities. India needs to be watchful its strategic and security interests in its part of Kashmir. As far as the rest is concerned, it can tow the U.S. line. I think you are reading too much in tea leaves.

The amount of coverage in the U.S. media for Iranian elections is a very strong indication of shift in the U.S. policy toward Iran. This is good for India. India did not participate in IPI, I had met someone from RAW who was its representative in negotiating team. The casual expression I got was that until Pakistan’s economy is sufficiently balanced and would be equally if not more affected in case of future hostility, India will not enter into this IPI. Problem is not Iran; problem is erratic relations with Pakistan and non-economic drivers that drive Pakistani actions. You can see that obsession with “not India� here on Chowk also.

Indian trade with China has grown leaps and bound. In the next five years this trade is destined to be the largest for Chinese in Asia.

The scenes with EU, Japan and Russia are similar.

India must relentlessly toe “Economy First, Stupid� policy at all cost. It should factor in attacks like in Mumbai and on the Parliament. Two responses were different, and reflected where Congress thinks priority (Economy First, Stupid) should be, and where BJP (more emotional and somewhat driven by testosterones) thinks the policy should be. Therefore, Congress win is good for the country.

State or non-state actors from Pakistan can be pin pricks. Pakistan in its current circumstances cannot touch nuclear button. Pakistanis know this, so there leverage from this “threat� is nothing.

Ex consulate general of India in San Francisco once remarked through its economy, market development and even with defective democracy (something Riaz mian gets his thrills), India can and will create multi-polar world for influence peddling in South Asia, even in the uni-polar world. According to his thesis, India can play each card well to get the best economic benefits, and must not allow emotions on Pakistan issues dictate.

When markets become large and real, countries lose political clout and will. Economic interests trumps all other. You have witnessed that in China. There was a magic number $32 billion of FDI in a country was touted as the turning point until late 80s, because there only so much capital is available to flow across the border. I do not know what that number is now. India probably is there or about to reach there. China crossed that threshold in 80s.

Indian relationship with the U.S., once the critical mass is reached will be viewed very differently. Foundations that Clinton started to lay, Condi Rice/Bush built further through nuclear agreement are more powerful indications. India has a trump card in Jewish lobby’s support for any acts contrary to India’s concurrence on Indian Kashmir. Therefore, India must not panic just because Nicholas Burns made a statement in New Delhi, after his meetings with Indian officials. This statement must have been cleared by India for Pakistani consumption. No diplomat speaks on third countries soil without concurrence, unless there is some catastrophe worse than war. After all, the U.S. waited Japanese diplomat to leave before declaring war on Japan.

Re: # 37 dm sb,
thanks for the clarification. for a while i was under the impression that u actually understood something about pakistan...

CoolAl#36:

I do hope you are right. We do want to sell those Candus and nobody seems to be buying them these days.

banjara#33:

I consider you all to be Pakistani elite. :)

#30

The Indo Canadian Civilian Nuke deal was signed in September 2008 before the US deal was signed. Canada lobbied FOR India at the NSG and has dropped the signing of CTBT & NPT as pre-conditions to conducting civilian nuclear trade with India.

The loong relationship I mentioned is with CANDU reactors. That is the technology that Inida is most familiar with. In fact, they have managed to extend and further CANDU reactor development, so Canada definitely has an inner track and I expect them to fully exploit it regardless of whether the US drags its feet or not.

Obama's election to the presidency might turn out to be the biggest blessing for the West.

For decades, liberals in America and other western countries have been feeding the public the idea that the reason that terrorists behave the way they do is because of bad US policies - totally ignoring the fact that Islamic behavior has been fixed for the last 1400 years - even when there was no US or colonialism. NOW that Obama wants to be "nice" to the terrorists - and surely Islamists could not consider his policies as neo-colonial? - the liberal lie will be exposed. Americans will see how little effect Obama's "tickle the terror suspects with feathers and read them the Miranda Rights" policy will have on Muslims.

This will lead to a very strong and lasting rejection of all these liberals in the American polity, and a permanent realization of the ever-increasing existential threat that the free world faces from Muslims.

This Obama election was REQUIRED for this to happen. This is going to be the proof that finally opens the West's eyes.

DM,

I generally agree with the points you are making in this article.

However, after having read B Raman's blog entry about the advisory - I think your using that as a basis (indicator?) for changing American policy is incorrect.

Have a look at this link from Raman's blog:

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/much-ado-about-ameri can-security.html

4. Such advisories are routine and are issued by the security officers of all important missions to their nationals travelling to or residing in India. This is part of their responsibility towards the personal security of their nationals in India. The Israeli missions periodically issue such cautionary advice to their nationals in India----particularly to those planning to visit Goa. After the Mumbai terrorist attack of November,2008,in which many foreigners of different nationalities were killed by 10 terrorists of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the frequency of such advisories has increased.

5. There are two kinds of advisories---- an advisory against travel to a country and an advisory about security precautions to be observed ina country. The advisory against travel to a country is issued by the Foreign Office of a country on the basis of the advice from the intelligence agencies. The advisory about security precautions to be observed in a country are routinely issued by the security officers of the diplomatic missions.

6. The advisory to which objection has reportedly been taken by P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister of the Government of India, has been routinely issued by the officer in charge of security in the US Embassy. There is nothing objectionable in the advisory and there is no ground for our protesting against it.

Re: # 31
i didn't know that pakistani elite spent any time on chowk. whose "lips", exactly, have u been "reading"?

Re: # 27
DM,
I think you are correct in the short term. US needs China more than any other country to deal with the current economic crisis (and perhaps North Korea), hence the terms such as Chimerica and G2 have entered the lexicon in the West. But, as soon as the current crisis abates, China will be seen more as a menace than a friend in America.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

banjara#22:

"r u putting words in the mouth of the pakistani elite?"

No, I am merely "reading the lips" of the Pakistani elite at chowk.;)