Waziristan Operation is a Faux Pas

u punjabis are pakistans problem and mirzais are a punjabi kafir sect.when the army kills good muslims you mirzais are happy.

"who is the loser in FATA"

the taliban. and treacherous rats.

#55 "why did the army get provoked and enter FATA ?"

because..FATA is a part of Pakistan. duh uh!!

why did the army get provoked and enter FATA ?

why give other countries an ideal breeding ground for insurgency.

who is the loser in FATA:--

Pakistan and Pakistan Army

Is it somebodys theka that all shoulb be controlled from islamabad.the nukes can stay with punjab and others can live as they wish.

pakistan needs to forget about kashmir and just think of preserving itself.
Agha Amin

#52 "pakistan army is designed to fight on the eastern border "

dont repeat these stupid cliches. pakistani bombs and bullets are designed to send all enemies of pakistan to hell. whether from the east or from the west. and pakistani marksmen are trained to shoot straight and send traitors to hell.

more bad news for taliban-toadies, mullah-kafirs, and other treacherous rats - they are receiving "dialogue" in the language they understand. Coming and going, from US drones from one side and Pakistani Air Force from the other. As the Pakistani nation heaves a sigh of relief that these animals are finally being dispatched to hell:

Jets bomb Taliban hideouts in South Waziristan
Friday, 19 Jun, 2009
PESHAWAR: Pakistani fighter jets on Friday bombed Taliban militant hideouts in the northwest tribal belt, officials said, as the death toll from a suspected US missile strike in the area rose to 13.

Up to three unmanned drone aircraft are reported to have dropped four missiles on a militant training school in the South Waziristan tribal zone on Thursday.


http://www.dawnnews.net/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/ dawn/news/pakistan/04-jets-bomb-taliban-hideouts-swaziristan-qs-07

pakistan army is designed to fight on the eastern border not the western border.any prolonged or casualty heavu deployment in the west will damage its military effectiveness.

since the army is at least 70 % punjabi , pashtuns/ranghars/sindhis/northeran areas being rest , naturally any casualties inflicted by the army in tribal areas will increase ethnic hatred.this is what has happened.

the punjabi talibans are a phenomenon but they are juniour partners of the pashtun taliban.

the solution in waziristan is not military.no amount of such operations will succeed.jinnah was no fool to realise this .and musharraf was the biggest fool in sending the army in waziristan.

as casualties multiply the liberal element will become weaker and weaker on both sides.

why persecute your own people so that they have no choice but to become tools in hands of foreign powers ?
Agha Amin

#48 big words from a small rat.

dude: i am sorry to break this sad news to you and other indians like you - but these taliban are no match for the people of Pakistan.

Re: # 47

Tahmed - Instead of shooting the messenger, which points of Orbat.com analysis posted by Agha Amin do you disagree with?

abay mirzai , tu kahan say a giya.pakistans tragedy is that mirzais are terribly afraid of taliban.then we have shia channels like dawn and express and all things are said with ulterior motives.below is a quote from ravi rikhye.one should read all sides views but u murtids are a really jaundiced lot.

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RAVI RIKHYE

0230 GMT June 18, 2009



If Estimates of Taliban Forces Are Correct, Pakistan Cannot Win



For many years, each time the Pakistan Army has said it lacks the resources to fight the Taliban, at Orbat.com we've engaged in rude sniggering. The Pakistan Army has close to 30 division-equivalents worth of troops, 80% infantry. It is one of the largest armies in the world. Its men are long-service professionals - long service means 10, 15, and 20 years for the soldiers and NCOs. It is well-trained, reasonably well equipped by Third World standards and well led.

How then could Pakistan claim it cannot fight the Taliban?

Of course, it didn't/doesn't want to fight the Taliban because even today with the exception of Baitullah Mesud whom the Pakistan Army says it is hunting, the other three major commanders are pro-Government, as are a host of minor commanders.

But from www.longwarjournal.org June 17, 2009 we learn that this Mesud gentleman has 30,000 fighters under his command and another 20,000 in allied/associated groups. The three other major commanders have 50,000 fighters. AQ in Pakistan has 10,000. This makes 110,000 fighters, and it doesn't take too much math to calculate that at 600 fighters per Pakistan army battalion (rifle and weapons companies) the Pakistan army has 130,000 infantry to the Taliban's 100,000. Of course, that doesn't count the Pakistan Army's approximately 130 or so towed artillery battalions and the approximately 300 or so fighter aircraft in the Pakistan Air Force.

No one can argue that the Pakistan Army has firepower superiority. But the Taliban's forces, for all they operate in units as large as brigades, do not fight a conventional fight when facing the Pakistan Army. They are guerrillas, and while that firepower comes in handy if the Taliban commander makes a mistake, it is of basically no help except to make holes in the ground and kill civilians.

So Pakistan could send every single soldier it has facing India to the west, it is absolutely, completely, totally not in a position to fight the Taliban and win. Even the US, for all its phenomenal surveillance, reconnaissance, intelligence, mobility, and firepower resources cannot win at such odds.

So - something we'd better get used to as a concept - even if Pakistan suddenly got religion and decided to go after the Taliban, it is not going to win. You are going to get one ghastly mess that will, within a year's of fighting, destroy what remains of Pakistan's economy and unity because all out wars inflict unbearable stress on any country, leave alone a 3rd world nation riven by ethnic divides on every side.

Now, Pakistan is not going to get religion. It's going after the Mesud because the US has given the 10-centimer diameter steel shaft and because it seems the Pakistan Army has decided to come down on the Government's side - at least for now. You must keep in mind the Army's leadership is totally opportunistic. At any rate, its not going to go after the other commanders because they are vital strategic assets against the US in Afghanistan and India.

The prospect of taking on the Mesud and his 50,000 own/allied fighters is bad enough, AQ will have to join in because the Pakistan Army is intruding into its safe havens. Now here's what's really scary: the Pakistanis are doing their level to keep the "good" Taliban out of this battle and perhaps even get some of them to help with eliminating Mesud. But, as Bill Roggio at LWJ says, basing his opinion on local information and media the good Taliban are tied by promises and ethnic loyalties to the Mesud fellow. The Pakistan army can say all it wants "we are only targeting an anti-Pakistan person", and it is true in the Frontier money does run thicker than blood, but if for no reason other than that the "good" Taliban have to wonder if Mesud is knocked out the Pakistan state is not going to go after them to bring them under control they way they were under control before the fall of Kabul in 1996.

So: to sum up. Mesud and AQ have 60,000 fighters which is way too many for the entire Pakistan Army to take on to begin with. The whole kit and kaboodle has 110,000 fighters. This is not a winning situation no matter which way anyone looks at it.

Here's more bad news: according to the Indians, Pakistan has deployed 22 brigades against the Taliban. That's almost a third of its infantry, and people, you have to realize that so far the Taliban haven't really put up up a fight. For all the drama the ISPR tries to keep going, if 390 Pakistan soldiers/Frontier Corps have been killed, that's 65 a week. That's not a war, its a bunch of skirmishes.

As someone who has closely studied the Pakistan Army for forty years, Editor can testify that by its lights, the Pakistan army is doing what it can.

Because - please don't forget - there's the equivalent of 40 powerful Indian divisions sitting to the East of the Kashmir Cease Fire Line and International Border, excluding the minimum defense against China and the 70,000 specialized CI troops - who are all regular soldiers, by the way, not paramilitary. You want paramilitary, India can deploy 500,000 against Pakistan if it needs to.

Beyond a point, if anyone thinks the US is going to be able to restrain India indefinitely so that Pakistan can shift all its infantry to the west is plain dreaming. Study the history of the subcontinent for just the last 1000 years and you will see this is just the right time for Delhi to start preparing to bring India's fractious and turbulent northwest under control. In case someone doesn't get it, India's northwest includes ALL of Pakistan.

The Pakistanis would have to be absolute lunatics to even think of moving many more troops to the west. Now if an Editor as an Indian citizen is saying that, think what the Pakistanis will say if the US wants them to move more troops. And that's if they want an all-out war with the Taliban that they cannot win. And they don not want such a war.







0230 GMT June 17, 2009



Mutiny in 3 Pakistan Army Brigades?



India Today, a leading multi-lingual weekly of India, says that that mutinies have occurred in Pakistan Army brigade at Kohat, Parachinar, and Turbat. The last is in Balochistan, and we have no clue why troops there should mutiny unless the Pakistan Army has also stepped up operations there at the US's behest. 900 troops are said to have deserted.

While six cases of soldiers killing soldiers are reported, we caution not to read much into this. Given the tension the Pakistan Army has been under, and given the Army has been busy destroying many of the same towns and villages its men are recruited from, this is a small figure.

Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org confirms the story via his US intelligence sources.

The India Today story says according to Pakistani sources 370 troops have been killed since the offensive began, and that while on the one hand the government says it is hunting Taliban leader Mesud who is behind most of the suicide bombings, on the other hand Mesud is maintaining contact with two senior army officers and the Taliban seem to have detailed knowledge of Pakistan army movements.

Meanwhile, Mr. Roggio reports the Pakistan Army says it has killed one Al Qaeda commander and wounded another. Since Al Qaeda is composed almost entirely of foreigners, while the Pakistan Army has never particularly gone out if its way to tackle AQ, it has frequently captured AQ personnel to hand over to the US. It is quite likely that to show the US it means business - and also because these are, after all, foreigners, the Pakistan Army is making a serious push against AQ.

Could the above news about the mutinies be a plant? We don't think it is an Indian plant because there is nothing in the reports that has not been happening for some time. Mandeep Singh Bajwa, for example, told us about desertions stepping up right in the first week of the offensive in Buner. The number of Pakistan soldiers given as killed is also modest. As for Mesud working with senior officers, that is no news at all.

But could it be a Pakistan plant to signal the US that the Pakistan Army may be reaching the end of its rope and needs to stop the offensive?

It's possible, but why the Pakistanis would need to leak this to the Indians is a great mystery.









0230 GMT June 16, 2009



Roll cameras. You see, right now the locals are very upset with the Taliban. But that doesn't mean they have changed one bit their centuries old hatred of central authority.

Next point. The Taliban are guerillas, albeit they have reached what in the old days we used to call Stage II: they control territory, and fight in organized units. When guerillas are stressed, they disperse. No one in their right mind - and this time not even the Pakistan army for all it's previous empty boasting - thinks the problem is anywhere near solved. Everyone is expecting the Taliban to hit back the minute the Pakistan Army reduces pressure. And the Pakistan army has to reduce pressure, because despite whatever carrots/sticks the US has used on Pakistan to get Islamabad moving, the Pakistan Army does NOT want to stay in tribal territory a day longer than it has to. To maintain the kind of relentless, single-minded pressure for decades such as India does in its CI campaign requires much, much more manpower and much more money than the Pakistanis have. It requires a mindset of endless sacrifice, of shutting off your mind from the present, and simply slogging on and on and on. Lets see the US Army fight the kind of decades long campaigns the Indian army engages in, and you will get the point. Next year will mark the start of Decade Six in the first of India's CI wars, in North East India. Can the US Army continue fighting into a sixth decade with absolutely no assurance there will not be a Decade Seven or even a Decade Ten? It cannot, and nor should the US expect the Pakistanis to do so.

The Pakistan army is winning right now. It will not be winning tomorrow.

Stop cameras. In all fairness to the Pentagon, it doesn't give a single darn what's going to happen in the 2010s, 2010s, and 2030s. All it wants is to ease the expected pressure on its forces in Afghanistan this year and the next. It is already looking to getting out of Afghanistan, not spending the next 50 years there. As far as the Pentagon is concerned, as long as its short term objectives are met, Afghanistan and Pakistan and so on can go where they want to.

But now we come to the truly dismal part of this campaign the Pakistan Army has engaged on.

You see, nothing has really changed and it cannot change as far as Pakistan and its insurgents are concerned. Kashmir is still very much on the agenda, getting the Americans out of Afghanistan is still very much on the agenda.

Just as the Pentagon is playing a short-term game, so is Pakistan. With US backing and "encouragement" It has no particular trouble whacking those Taliban that turned renegade. These are the ones that grew so strong they told the Pakistanis to stick it to themselves. These are the ones that broke the compact between Pakistan and the Pushtoon tribes: you and we will wage against Afghanistan, against the foreigners and the non-Pushtoons; we will leave you alone in your homes, but outside of tribal territory you are to leave us alone.

Meanwhile, this war that Pakistan is fighting on the US's behalf is taking its toll of Pakistan. Any war creates instability, the longer it goes on the more the instability. The Taliban are already resorting to the kinds of brutal suicide attacks that sap a nation's morale.

Soon the Taliban are going to be visiting villages in the territory they have allegedly lost but actually have not, and they are going to start executing those that collaborated with the government. The only way you can stop them is to station government forces in every village. That is not going to happen. And as for the "Awakenings" business, forget it. Pakistani frontier tribesmen are genetically encoded to fight authority.

If the US wants the Pakistan Taliban out of the game, there is only one thing it can do: implement the Russian solution. Shoot one of ten males to introduce yourself to the villagers. If they cooperate, okay. If they don't, shoot another one in ten males, and go on doing it until there are no males left alive. Obviously the US can't do this. But what the US needs to see is that the Pakistanis cannot do it either. So the US has to live with the reality there will neither be Awakenings in Pakistan, nor can the Pakistan Government protect every village.

When the Taliban come back, there will be blood - a lot of it.

By the way, doesn't all this seem a bit familiar to the old timers the Editor's age or older? It should. That show was called Second Indochina, which followed First Indochina, which followed the war against Japan and so on. We Americans always have a home to come back to when we're sick of killing. Where will the Pakistan Army go when it is sick of killing its own people?






Agha Amin

Re: # 29
khyber...
It may sound bad for you Pakistanis...
There is much difference in Guerilla warfare and fighting under the shield of civilians with direct war...Pakistani Army, after failing in conventional war, tried this stuff on India (Kashmiri jihadis) and now they are tasting, what they were forced to do...
Indira Gandhi created LTTE to support Tamils in Srilanka and even used some of the amry bases to train them. Then, her son , Rajiv Gandhi was forced to send IPKF to SriLanka (for the fear of US intervention) and even he lost his life at the hand of LTTE...I am seeing the same drama being enacted here again, though Tamils in Srilanka and Talibs/Kashmiris are different breed of people.
In every field, you guys follow India ( Cricket, Hockey and even in dirty politics)...

forget about the marathas , even the sikhs were so civilised that jassa singh ramgharia granted asylum to bhambu khan brother of ghulam qadir khan rohilla.he gave him 5 villages and 7,000.

the english company ,nawab of oudh asked for him but jassa singh refused.tarikh i hussain shahi has a detailed account
Agha Amin

the marathas were far more civilised than any of the powers of that time.
Agha Amin