Watching Poverty Grow

The issue is bureaucracy and technology....that is why you have transmission loss. Investment is not the issue. Demand pull is quite strong. Go and google up the number of plants being set up. Simple things like new meters that can track usage and automatically relay imputs to power stations, putting down a whole new smartgrid with public-private financing is happening...as you write your trite unhinged remarks.

India is ona scale a whole different country than a little place like pakistan. Which, by the looks of it is going in a reverse direction with karachi in the dark for much of the day.

I cannot say since then, but until late 90s, in India power generation was privatized, but not the distribution. In the export zone, we had surplus power generation in our plant, the neighbors had to suffer from erratic power supply. We could not distribute the power to next door neighbors.

Privatization of state level enterprises is full of fraught.

Re: # 32 Prof.R.Haq you are very polite as I have no knowledge of big companies.
You have written
"Under such circumstances, who in their right mind would want to build power plants, unless they get high enough rates to compensate for heavy power pilferage."
We will have losses as they are not technical losses but designed losses.
THis is egg and hen problem. Govt will never tax agriculture so they are subsidizing feudals for equality miserable urban theft of power can be considred for subsidizing.
Black hole army is absorbing 70% national health (some say) they can be kind to direct some money for urban survival for cow they milk, which produces wealth.
One wonder if we subsidise and helps rich Arab companies why not be little kind with theft by urbans.
I have no knowledge if govt does not invest, private does not invest then we are destined for long dark hot nights and darkness at noon.
I have subsidised chor my students gone to usa who do not pay me all is chor bazzar.

Re: # 36 About this agree. Pakistan very young.Miitary rulers A to Z and corropt bb to pm.. ( Ayub , zia etc) come and go but Pakistani army takes ahead pakistani people and pakistani nation in its pocket.

Re: # 33 Intrpolation is extremely accurate extrapolation is only reasonable speculation at best.

Re: # 33
I think you are being an alarmist. Forecasts of Pakistan's extinction have been coming fast and furious for more than half century..the latest one was from David Kilcullen that gave Pakistan six months earlier this year.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Re: # 34
So why is there a serious power shortage in India? If it is not more than 50% power theft in Delhi( which has brought it the distinction of being "power theft capital of the world"), then what is it? Is it tariffs?

Here's an analysis I read recently:

The Indian government recognizes that the long-term sunk cost, long project planning and construction timeframe, and high-risk portfolio make it difficult for private investors to raise funds whose maturity matches project completion dates. Since 1991 it has allowed 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in the power sector (with the exception of nuclear power) under the automatic route (that is, without hindrance from the financial regulatory agency, the Reserve Bank of India) and without limitations on project cost and amount of FDI.

Despite these and other incentives and lucrative policy measures, FDI in the sector for 2006 totaled $157 million—accounting for less than 1% of the nation’s total FDI. Experts cite several reasons for this, apart from the numerous challenges that afflict the sector, including short and erratic supply of fuel and equipment, high tariff rates, poor plant load factor, power theft, and other transmission and distribution losses. But the primary problem is the poor commercial performance and near-bankruptcy of state electricity boards (SEBs)—a result of pervasive power politics. The prevalence of corruption, lack of corporate governance practices, and red tape (owing to the multi-regulatory system that involves both state and federal levels of government) are also major concerns.

http://powermag.com/business/1843.html
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Transmission loss doesn't prevent investment investments....lack of political stability and poor economic climate prevent investment. Demand pull is there.

#26 Posted by RiazHaq

“A culture can only maintain itself for more than 25 years if it has a fertility rate 2.11 or higher. Once the fertility falls below 1.9, it can not be reversed …..Fertility rates of Europeans (1.38) and Chinese (1.77), on the other hand, are alarmingly low, with possible extinction of their cultures in a few centuries.�

Answer:

#28 Posted by Pardesi

“Extrapolation based on current trends is just one possible outcome. Future is always very very uncertain.�


We may be extinct within 25 years unless we do something about it.

Re: # 31
Madani Sahib, With all due respect to you, sir, I don't think you understand the electricity business well. The electrical power business, like any other business, has to make a profit to attract investors. In Pakistan, the transmission losses exceed 30%, which is at least 10-15 times the average in most other nations, except perhaps in India where they are even higher....some estimates put the power theft in India at 40-50%.

The term "transmission loss" is in fact a euphemism for power theft which is widespread in both rural and urban areas. So people want to have reliable electricity but they do not want to pay for it. In addition to the usual "kunda" thieves, many of the culprits are powerful political leaders and government ministers and their cronies who refuse to pay their bills.

Under such circumstances, who in their right mind would want to build power plants, unless they get high enough rates to compensate for heavy power pilferage.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Rashid Sashib we are destined for problems. When you handover a power company to foreign friendly hands it was crime. It was extremely undersold and concessions given and promises given by friendly Arabian companies were never carried out.A rabian co. never capatalised or put money in infrastructe as promised.
THe idea of privation has scheme of former PM , City bank man. In usa city bank is giving lessons about privatization.
In our country Privatization means Privatization of profits and looting and depreciating and starving going company and nationalizing losses. They are doing as planned , power company is aleady looted and govt of pakistan has sunk huge amounts before handing over. The company is already carved. Now dead cow will dumped in Public lap to recapitalize. Friendly investors milked cow so much she is dead. Now govt will take over recapatalise to be again privatised our style.
There is politics involved , I mean to say looting national treasury and blackmailing is concentrated politics which is economics.

Yes CA, secularism, democracy, nice tradition of smooth transfer of power, education opportunities for every one (and Riaz is right, many institutions' standard needs to be improved), indian cultural/hindu tolerance and patience, all these are great building blocks.

I just hope that we make little more progress on law and order thingy for every one and we are all set :)

Yah pardesi.....I think India will be alright. The fundamentals of the economy are waiting for the sociology to catch up. The sheer volume of people will take a couple of generations but I think that the future is quite bright for Indian folks.

Extrapolation based on current trends is just one possible outcome. Future is always very very uncertain.

If nations with large populations are not educated, don't have many opportunities and poor have no perceived stake in the government, they can easily become instrument of instability and therefore a huge liability.

Larhe populations can be an asset if they are predominantly young and the policies for making them productive assets is in place, as Riaz points out. The population dividend towards growth for a country like India is still to come. China is in the midst of it. One of the interesting things to watch is how the one-child rule in china will affect the socioeconomics. Basically, one child will be responsible for producing enough to take care of two parents and two grandparents (as life spans increase)....then there is a curious social element where a child will grow up having no uncles, neices, nephews...a strange nuclear family.

The key I suppose is a balance....

Interestingly enough, Jared Diamond wrote and essay called "32" a year back or so...where he talked about consumption levels in the US vis-a-cis Chindia....I paraphrase "if CHINDIA was to consume resources and put out pollutants at the same rate as the US....it would be like there are 72 billion people on this earth....most anthropolists can agree to 12 or even 15 billion people....but no one crazy enough to suggest that 72 billion is possible"

Re: # 25
A culture can only maintain itself for more than 25 years if it has a fertility rate 2.11 or higher. Once the fertility falls below 1.9, it can not be reversed. Pakistan's current fertility of 3.73 (down from 4 in 2003)and India's 2.76 (down from 3 in 2003) are well above the 2.11 rate. But fertility rates of both are coming down steadily with economic development.

Fertility rates of Europeans (1.38) and Chinese (1.77), on the other hand, are alarmingly low, with possible extinction of their cultures in a few centuries.

So birth control is a good thing, but only up to a point.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide