Watching Poverty Grow

malikrashid,
I posted the following comment on your ilog posting of the same name. Now I'm sharing it with others who have not seen it:

Pakistan's budget represents only about 11% of nation's gdp. So, even a 5.4% budget deficit is minuscule in the overall national context.

Pakistan's problem is structural, with so few people paying taxes. For example, the entire farm income earned by the big feudal elite is exempt from taxes. It needs to be taxed like any other income to generate sufficient funds to deliver basic services like education, healthcare, infrastructure, sanitation, poverty alleviation etc.

At the same time, there is a need to incentivize and encourage a robust, well-funded private sector to address the monumental needs of human development in Pakistan.

To put it in perspective, let's look across the border in India, where the Indian governments takes in about 17% of the gdp as revenue. But, in 2009-10 budget, fully two-thirds of it is allocated for non-productive, non-dev uses like military, police, various paramilitary and security forces and debt payment. So people's needs for education, healthcare, poverty alleviation, sanitation etc. get very low priority in the Indian budget.

The latest data suggests that India is much worse off than Pakistan in terms of hunger, poverty and basic sanitation.

An important way to measure progress in Pakistan for the poor is is terms of the probability of Pakistan achieving the UN Millennium Dev Goals (MDGs). Pakistan ranks at 45, well ahead of India at 62 and it is included in the medium performing countries. PHI is a new composite indicator – the Poverty and Hunger Index (PHI) – developed to measure countries’ performance towards achieving MDG1 on halving poverty and hunger by 2015. The PHI combines all five official MDG1 indicators, including a) the proportion of population living on less than US$ 1/day, b) poverty gap ratio, c) share of the poorest quintile in national income or consumption, d) prevalence of underweight in children under five years of age, and d) the proportion of population undernourished.

In the context of India’s unprecedented economic growth (9-10 percent annually) and national food security, over 60 percent of Indian children are wasted, stunted, underweight or a combination of the above. As a result, India ranks number 62 along with Bangladesh at 67 in the PHI (Poverty Hunger Index)ranking out of a total of 81 countries. Both nations are included among the low performing countries in progress towards MDG1 (Millennium Development Goals) with countries such as Nepal (number 58), Ethiopia (number 60), or Zimbabwe (number 74).

The World Hunger Index of 88 countries published by IFPRI last year ranked India at 66 while Pakistan was slightly better at 61 and Bangladesh slightly worse at 70.

According to a recent story in Times of India headlined "India Tops World Hunger Chart", almost 80% of rural households do not have access to toilets within their premises. The figure exceeds 90% in states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and MP.

India remains among the worst in all the rankings of nations on basic indicators like poverty, hunger, illiteracy, disease, sanitation etc etc


Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Mr. Haq
Sir, thanks for the information you have provided in your interact. The IMF had imposed a condition to keep the deficit below 4.6% a few months ago, when Pakistan government approached them for help. I share your view about tax on agriculture sector and I wish land reforms could abolish feudalism immediately.
The comparison between India and Pakistan is interesting but my focus in this article is Pakistan. I will really appreciate if you identify some fields where India has done better and suggest ways they could be implemented in Pakistan.
Waiting eagerly
Malik rashid

Mr Rashid,

{{I will really appreciate if you identify some fields where India has done better and suggest ways they could be implemented in Pakistan.}}

You really think Riaz is interested in that?
The man collects specific data on the web to show how Pakistan is better off than India. Then he posts the same data over & over again...I guess to feel good about himself.

You can find all sorts of data on the internet to spin your views.

I don't have the time or the aptitude to google; but even an ignoramus like me can spin data..

I realize Indo-Pak comparisons are immature--since both countries are in the same gutter... but here are a few examples with my meager power of googling.

Heheh...just to egg mian Riaz's spin doctoring...

Infant mortality rate (latest)

Pakistan 28
India 44

Lower numbers indicate worse performance.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_inf_mor_rat-health-infant- mortality-rate


Literacy rate:

Pakistan 160
India 147

higher numbers denote worse standings

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

Human Development index

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide. It is a standard means of measuring well-being, especially child welfare. It is used to distinguish whether the country is a developed, a developing or an under-developed country, and also to measure the impact of economic policies on quality of life. The index was developed in 1990 by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq and Indian economist Amartya Sen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Inde x

Pakistan 139
India 132

This is the most comprehensive picture. India is overall more developed than Pakistan. CASE CLOSED.

Now just WATCH how Riaz mian will spin this!:)

Riaz Mian:

You need to cool down. In an article on Pakistan your #1 post has 11 lines on Pakistan, and 29 lines on India.

What is your message?

Just ignore this worldwide guy, and interact on the topic at hand.

Re: # 2
Rashid, You article is specifically about poverty and hunger. Given India's horrible record in this area, I don't think Pakistan can look to India to learn anything from it as far as reducing hunger and poverty.

The one thing where Pakistan can and should follow India's lead is in increasing tax revenue as percent of GDP. India currently collects about 17% of GDP in tax revenue versus Pakistan's 11%. The quickest way to do it is to tax the income of the big feudal lords....which is going to be tough because they rule the country. Without more revenue, it is hard for the government to increase spending on education, healthcare, poverty alleviation, etc.

A serious land reform undertaken by Nehru in India (or even better, the Kerala state land reform) would be another important step for Pakistan toward liberating the rural poor and improve their literacy, particularly female literacy. Again, it's not going to happen as long with we have a feudal democracy where the election of big zamindars to positions of power is guaranteed.

Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Question: What can you do to the Puffed up Worldwide Madrassa Alumnus that he does not do to himself?

Answer: NOTHING ;-)

Budget 2009-10.Another bunch of lies and a perfect case of number juggling and status quo.Moreover, by none other than the lady who was part of the 'economic dream team' of previous government. Pot calling the kattle black.

What is most intriguing about the budget is that we are dependent on 'friends of Pakistan' to have mercy upon us and balance that deficit with their much needed aid. The only performing sector of the GDP i.e agriculture has been magnanimously spared any taxation like always. Local borrowing would keep the interest rate high keeping the industry non productive and non efficient that also continues to suffer owing to energy deficit. There is no plan to arrest inflation that continues to hover in alarmingly high double digits zone.

“government ko chahiyay�


I think the one thing that we can definitely eliminate is this phrase from our lexicon once and for all:

The whole media, in fact the whole nation is always looking towards the government to solve what ever problem their may be. This is an entire cop out, when we know for a fact that they cannot be trusted to do anything right to begin with so why do we keep banging our heads against the same wall expecting a different out come. How about something as simple as self reliance, finding household solutions for household problems, local solutions for local problems and before you know it we can actually start making a dent on national issues.

One of the main causes of poverty is the unbridled growth in population. Even the most optimistic growth estimates when adjusted for population growth turn surpluses into deficits and that is one central problem. Moreover this population growth is crumbling the already antiquated infra structure which is hardly suited for such an influx.

This problem does not require a government solution it can and should be handled in the household. Don’t make so many babies, discourage early marriage, change the mores whereby unless the boy can afford an apartment he cant marry. Social scientists who wish to help can ally with the media and spread the word around for better practices. This alone can go a long way to make a dent on the growth of poverty.

Next equally important area could be pollution. No extra resources are needed beyond elbow grease to keep your home clean. Promote habits so that the drains keep free of objects which shouldn’t be there. Separate drinking water from waste water etc. can be tackled within the household. At the community level make sure the same is true, okay we may require some garbage receptacles but if it is supported by the community can result in much better living conditions.

Education is another sector which could be handled without any help. The main problem of illiteracy is that education has not been emphasized enough as a priority within the household and the community. Education can be had under a tree only thing it requires is dedication from the teacher and the student. We have to stop accepting child labor in our households and insist that all children should be in school this mindset needs change.

Energy is another sector that can be handled without government, donors, vaderas, army or industrialists etc. With the hot sun that most of Pakistan experiences cant its energy be harnessed to lets say heat water or energy for cooking and domestic use. I think local solutions can be found with minimal investments.

The important point is that we have to get back to solving our own problems rather then looking at others to solve them for us.

Re: # 6
Thanks. Pakistan collected a mere 9% in tax and the government says it will go up to 9.6% for 2009-10, compared to 17% in India. This looks like a huge difference. Almost doubling revenues in Pakistan could take the country towards eeconomic independence and prosperity. If we could get a comparison in education and health-care between the two and measure them against countries like UK or Canada!
Re#3.
Thanks Shankar
How did India achieve these rates in Infant mortality and literacy? Illiteracy in Pakistan is very high and there is hardly any focus on this issue.
Re#8
Delirium, you raise a very important issue. The government is not sure that the aid promised would be delivered on time and Pakistanis feel helpless for their situation which demands international charity and generosity year after year.
#7. Yes, but more than madressah there are those who have similar ummah superiority dreams within higher echelons of power and society at large. That present a greater danger
according to reports published in US newspapers last week.
Anil and Bubba, thanks.

Re: # 9
TehsinA,
You have identified population growth/poverty, pollution, education and energy. Pakistan government did focus on population planning at some point and I am not sure what the results were. China has tackled this in some ways hence they have rectified their situation. I wonder if this could change without a concerted effort from the top. I agree that poverty, population planning are linked but only individual and community response might not be enough.
Pollution is one good point. Pakistan government has replaced a tax on petroleum by calling it carbon tax. It is funny that a government that has almost zero focus on pollution chooses to levy a carbon tax which many industrialised countries are still debating on.
I think you have pointed at the right problems but I am not sure that a non-governmental approach could make much of a difference. Thanks.

Re: # 11

Malik Rashid ji,

Out of curiosity, what are the measures Pakistan has adopted for population control. How do they do the PR?

The reason I ask is - In India in 1980's when I was growing up the Nirodh advertisement (Nirodh was a govt. sponsored free condom) used to be on play every day at 9 pm on national television. And at that time, India had only 2 channels - satellite TV was not yet in. I think most importantly what the Nirodh campaign made sure that Condoms is no longer a taboo word. And their slogan was "Hum do Hamare do".

Re: # 10
malikrashid, When I read your articles and contribute my thoughts by dissecting, critiquing and putting them data/facts regional perspective, my assumption is that you want it to constructive.

So I am more than a little annoyed when you paint it as "ummah superiority" and agree with a bigot like CoolAl. I know you want to be popular with some of your Indian readers like CoolAl and Bubba, but please don't be blind to the facts/data and criticism I bring to Chowk that they dislike, even abhor because it hurts their inflated image of themselves.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Re: # 4
Anil,
Thank, but I am always cool!

I think you need to redo your math.

I am sure you have heard of benchmarking in your work as a consultant. The lines that mention India also mention Pakistan and other nations for comparison purposes.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Riaz, I really appreciate your participation and learn from your articles and posts. I envy your strength of persuasion. We have differences of opinion on the role of Pakistan army/ISI but unlike others you do not support the obscurantist outlook projected from the top in Islamabad. I did not mean to offend you but difference in our opinion should not end a healthy discourse.
Thanks.

Re: # 12
There was some noticeable effort by the government in the early 70s. There were ads on TV, bill-boards and news papers. Free contraception was distributed. Since Zia came to power in 1977 the outlook changed and population explosion perhaps suited the strategy of Islamabad. I have not seen much done since then.