Failing to Make Direct Contact With the People, The US is Further Alienating Pakistan

arjun...
USA is trying to save Pakistan...That is why Pakistan is still a functional state....

#100 Posted by Pew_Research on October 18, 2009 11:11:04 am

Nobody had made that kind of a prediction for najibulah...once the soviets withdrew, his gose was cooked..

pakis aren't iranians...

for every shah of iran, there are hosni mubaraks and the saudi royal families..

remember the red mosque...when the time came, the paki army send commandos to drop white phosphorus on school girls...


I only suggested one scenario as a possibility.


Of all the possibilities, what are most likely? are all possibilities equally likely?

Re: # 99 Arjun

I never claimed anything about likelihoods, rather the complete opposite - no predictions can be made. I only suggested one scenario as a possibility.

If you are so confident about the future, then perhaps the Shah of Iran should have slept well, as should have Najeebullah.

#98 Posted by Pew_Research on October 18, 2009 9:50:40 am


You don't have a serious answer to the one scenario that I described, short of 'it is unlikely'.


Huh? You claimed something is likely to happen without explaining why that was likely to happen.


In any case..let me lay it down in simple terms

It's very unlikely that the jihadis will take over the paki state..why? because the generals love their plots and they have bigger guns.

As long as the security establishment is in control, the "return address" , as you put it, will always be the paki state...the paki state controlled by the generals who have a major stake in not seeing the values of their plots go down.

Re: # 97 Arjun

You are sadly mistaken. You are comparing likelihoods of bats flying out of someone's ass. That should be the clearest indication that you are out of your league, and are resorting to what you think is cleverness and glib comparisons. You don't have a serious answer to the one scenario that I described, short of 'it is unlikely'.

As regards Bangalore, it is not at all difficult to mount suicide attacks in India. India is an open society and someone willing to kill themselves cannot be thwarted. In the India-Pakistan tension, the reason that Bangalore has not yet been targeted is because the ISI is calibrating the level of tension, and not because they can't do it. Indeed, since the ISI has a return address, one can argue that they are being deterred. Once there is no return address for a jihadi group, all bets are off.

#95 Posted by Pew_Research on October 18, 2009 9:02:56 am


I had specifically said that it is impossible to forecast the future and to place likelihoods on certain scenarios.


sure...but somethings are more likely to happen than others...like it's very unlikely a bat will fly out of capt clueless' ass..or it's very unlikely that prophetboy will get his head out of his ass..or it's very likely that a few bombs will go off in pakiland in the coming weeks...

The pakis, seeing themselves lag way way behind india, have been dreaming up terrorists attacks against targets in bangalore...if it hasn't happened, it's because of their inability...not the goodness in their hearts..

I doubt the paki generals will be willing to give up prep schools with petting zoos...

your whole argument is based on a false premise..the civil war, the most likely outcome..is the best for india...including a division between pashtuns getting bombed and the punjabi elite that controls the state...

Jihad is product of army and america and GOP is by product of army and America, Jihadi TTP is waste product of America and Pakistani generals and this poisoous waste product is dumped in afghanistan gift of Pakistani army and usa, thank you gift to muslim brother nation. God is great, Allah Hu Akber.
Damn Elite American govt and Pakistani Generals.

Arjun:

Remember, in one of my posts, I had specifically said that it is impossible to forecast the future and to place likelihoods on certain scenarios. Therefore, I am not saying that this is likely, but it is certainly possible. And if it does happen, what is your plan?

The Pakistan Army is calibarting the level of terror in Kashmir and rest of India (attacks in J&K OK: WMD attacks or dirty bomb attacks in India: not OK).

If the Pakistan Army is delegitimatized, the Islamists will fill the vacuum. Not that the Army will like this, but it may have no choice (e.g. Iranian revolution). And if it does happen, what is your plan?

#93 Posted by Pew_Research on October 18, 2009 7:44:11 am


What will be the effect of nearly daily suicide bombings in major Indian cities, and an occasional dirty bomb, or even a nuclear bomb - with no return address?


Again you're starting off with the assumption that this is a certainty...there's nothing to say that it's likely to happen...

like I said..even with the full backing of the paki army, the jihadis haven't been able to do that...and we all know the pakis would do it if they could...

so the whole premise is false..this is just like the whole if we don't fight them in baghdad, we'll have to fight them in boston bs...


I was specifically discussing a scenario where the Pakistani state becomes dysfunctional and disintegrates.


Not likely to happen...the top leadership of the paki army loves it's plots and other "perks" more than they love allah...if that weren't the case, they would have come down on the side of the taliban post 9/11...you think the paki army WANTS to go into the tribal area..pfft..it's been forced to go in by you-know-who..before the pakiwhackers started in 2005, the paki army hadn't entered the tribal areas and the jihadis had a safe haven to attack NATO forces..then america took things in it's own hands with the pakiwhackers..that, along with threats of more direct action, forced the paki army to go into the tribal areas...



You've been painting doomsday scenarios and basing your whole "oh we must cheer the pakis on" thing on a false premises..

Re: # 86 Arjun and Bharat various

"...
First of all, the jihadis, with the full backing of the paki army, haven't been able to make any difference in kashmir..."

That's not the point. What will be the effect of nearly daily suicide bombings in major Indian cities, and an occasional dirty bomb, or even a nuclear bomb - with no return address? What will it to do investor confidence? And to the economy? A Kargil-type response won't be enough.

"...
Secondly, there is no chance the jihadis will take over pakiland..."

I was specifically discussing a scenario where the Pakistani state becomes dysfunctional and disintegrates. If there are rogue terror groups running amok in Pakistan, and targeting India with WMD, there will be very few options for India to respond with. Rogue groups cannot be deterred, and they have a lot of potential to create permanent problems.

bulleya#90:

".there was a young suicide bomber who was captured, who explained exactly how the funding occurs.......do you think this to be a fact.......should we all consider it a fact.....after all, where in teh world are the taliban getting their money and weaponry from?)"

Why would I doubt this news? Isn't it being broadcast on BBC, PBS, Newsweek, Time, Washington Post, New York Times and every other major news media in the world after careful investigation by world reknowned investigative reporters on the ground? The same ones who after the Mumbai attack had reported an Indian exploding a bomb in Lahore? What was his name?

#90 Posted by bulleya on October 17, 2009 11:24:46 pm


should we all consider it a fact.....after all, where in teh world are the taliban getting their money and weaponry from?


You can consider whatever you want a fact...there is absolutely no corroboration that india is helping the talban...unlike the american intercepts that busted the ISI bacling to the kabul embassy bombings and other paki support to terrorism...

in any case...you told us, after 9/11, that the jihadis were pushovers and that the paki forces would wipe the floor with them....seems to me like pakiland has lost in pakiland...used to be a time when the paki army was at least successful against it's own people...

dost-mittar#: "You can of course dismiss my comments because I have been to neither Afghanistan nor Quetta."

...why in the world would you think i would dismiss the comments of someone who has such clear knowledge of what is going in pakistan and in afghanistan....not to mention, such direct intelligence information.......visiting afghanistan or quetta is, obviously, not important......i have visited quetta, and grew up in pakistan.....somehow or the other i was unable to set up such a sophisticated intelligence network......

would you know exactly where in quetta the shura is situated and exactly how pakistan support gulbuddin hikmatyar.....what are the mechanisms......

also, could you disclose your resources and intelligence sources through which you have received this information........

(p.s. the general perception in pakistan is that india is funding the terrorist bombings in pakistan......there was a young suicide bomber who was captured, who explained exactly how the funding occurs.......do you think this to be a fact.......should we all consider it a fact.....after all, where in teh world are the taliban getting their money and weaponry from?)......

Pew....

In case Pak falls apart to dogs.... then India has a very important role to play in breaking up Pakistan. India will aid Baluchistan and Sind to form seperate states and will invest in Baloch gas. We have strong support in Afghanistan.

Remember that since there is Pak as a country still standing and supporting Jihadis... USA is finding it difficult to control Jihadis.. Without Pak... the grossly over estimated Jihadis have no chance. All over the world Jihadis have used locals as shields or sneaked into other neighboring countries like Pak to survive and fight another day. With Pak falling there wont be much value to a Muslim life and no country will hesitate to decimate Jihadis.

All in all it seems to be very dire for PAk as a country and for rogue population like Pakistanis. Pakistan has lived past its expiration date and we have seen all of Pakistan in the last 60 years. From now on whatevr may be the outcome of future events there wont be any sovereignty of a Muslim state. It will be totally controlled by other countries.

#83 by Pew_Research

And don't count on the rest of the world to bail India out. Heck, if the Europeans won't bail out the Americans in Afghanistan, why would anyone come to India's aid? And stabilizing a state the size of Pakistan is beyond the means of India. Consider this option ONLY IF you are certain that India alone will be able to prevent the fallout.

Pew yaar, the best thing to have come out of AQ Khan's nuclear black marketeering is that it is not just India now, but the entire world that is concerned about nukes falling into the hands of unscrupulous entities (not that the Paki army isn't one, but that's an altogether matter). As terrorists spread their wings across the world, it is the entire world's interest to keep from nukes falling into the Jihadis' hands; however remote the possibility of an attack on their soil might appear. So you can rest easy a bit!

Oh...and Pew_Research...you grossly underestimate the will of the indian people....look up kargil...the paki army sneaked up on high positions vacated by indian forces...the public fully supported the war and indian forces were able to evict paki forces from the higher ground...something pakis haven't been able to do in siachen..not for lack of trying...