Defending Pakistan

In response to Basant...

Unfortunately Indians like you fail to see who is to blame for our dillemma. I wonder why India is arming itself the way it is. SUre the economy is better but more people EVEN in ratio die of Hunger in India then they do in Pakistan. Maybe the ``Hindu`` India hasnt gotten over its complex of Babur and Ghaznwi or maybe it just feels that it is

its right to be the Hegemon of South Asia.

In any event there is a strong Economic case for spending on indigenous defense productions and by god we will have it Inshallah.

FC1 sounds like a very good idea.If Pakistan can produce those planes and somehow increase its production capabilities we could sell these planes to our allies in the Islamic WOrld and the third world. I think Hegemons need to be countered not only in South Asia but in the world also. Why not do with a positive impact on our Economy and definite booster to our international relations.

Pakistan Zindabad

In response to Basant...

Unfortunately Indians like you fail to see who is to blame for our dilemma. I wonder why India is arming itself the way it is. SUre the economy is better but more people EVEN in ratio die of Hunger in India then they do in Pakistan. Maybe the ``Hindu`` India hasnt gotten over its complex of Babur and Ghaznwi or maybe it just feels that it is

its right to be the Hegemon of South Asia.

In any event there is a strong Economic case for spending on indigenous defense productions and by god we will have it Inshallah.

FC1 sounds like a very good idea.If Pakistan can produce those planes and somehow increase its production capabilities we could sell these planes to our allies in the Islamic WOrld and the third world. I think Hegemons need to be countered not only in South Asia but in the world also. Why not do with a positive impact on our Economy and definite booster to our international relations.

Pakistan Zindabad

The Author first starts of with quantitative disequilibrium of the Indian and Pakistani forces and then goes on to recommend, a tactic that just delays the inevitable.

Jane`s Journal rates Pakistan`s war capability to be 13 days while that of India at 30 days. The fact is however brilliant and skillful our armed forces may be, they are and will continue to be no match for the resources available to the Indian defences.

The Author suggests taking more and more hardware from a country that does not have the competitive advantage in its technology. Remember, today the hardware is only as good as its software. Pakistan, if it continues to spend money on acquiring these outdated arms will do no good to its nation as its just wasting its money.

The appropriate use of the money would be to train more persons (increase allocation for Phd.s, for eg.) to develop the technology. But more and more funds should go towards educating the masses in the villages, so that they may support the defence initiative. What is the use of having a capable army when they depend on food from abroad. The independence is not only in terms of land but quality of life.

Lets not run towards more effective weapon system before we get our house in order.

Re Amir and ``History Bears Witness``:

You are talking no doubt about Napoleon, Hitler and Mussollini instilling their nation with ``national pride``. And more recently the American ``New World Order`` and ``we kick iraqi butt`` crap.

Its one thing to say that we need defence spending because otherwise India will march happily in (stupid but defendable); its bloody another to say we need defence spending to buy back our national pride.

Mr. Husain,

We cannot come India and Pakistan with that of USSR and NATO. The Cold War adversaries built their own defence technologies and material. Futhermore, I think you are not looking at NATO with USA. During Cold war USSR and USA were compared independently and with their satellites (in USA`s case NATO). USA has committed forces in Germany, Japan, UK, France, etc. While USSR had forces in the East European Countries.

Pakistan and India have no such arrangements.

When you are planning an economy, you want to ensure that you have enough to eat before you try to setup elaborate schemes to protect it. Its like spending millions of dollars putting in a security system for a Kutchi Abadi hutment.

Yes Phds. must be produced but these Phds. should be initially for developing consumer durables, electronics, agriproducts, etc.

Once you are on the way to development, you might look at defence. But the current conditions are such that 40% of the budget is spent on defence and 40% on interest. India`s budget is three time that of Pakistan. To make the same resources available to our army we will be running a deficit greater than the 6% currently. This will lead to an inflation that will make Latin American inflation of 1000% per year look enviable.

And if your answer is that size does not matter, they why even spend 40% why not limit our expenditure to 10% or less. For if 10% cannot protect us then surely 40% will also not be enough. If 1000 planes vs 500 planes are not important then why not have 1000 planes vs 100 planes or less.

China is building frames and parts but that is not what is important in a plane today. Among other things, the ability to identify friend or foe aircrafts (we have shot down our own F16s in friendly fire), stealth capability (radar evasion), etc. that are part of the software components are important. Where does China stand in software development and can we easily make changes to the software to meet our requirements. Its easier to become a skilled race car driver but only an engineer can give the advantage of superior car. If there were not skilled engineers cars would not break the speed of sound.

Mr. Husain,

I forgot to add, that any defence material provided by USA is restricted for resale or use. So even though AWACS are available to Saudis they have no authority to provide us with its use, directly or indirectly.

Just like Turkey has the ability to rebuild F-16s but based on today`s news Pakistan might be allowed to use Israel for this purpose and not Turkey.

``Peace will not be won if Pakistan disarms, we
will only be bullied further and lose whatever semblance of
respectability we can lay claim to. This is too high a price to pay
and certainly a hodge-podge of self styled `peace` lovers do not
have any right to ask the Pakistani people to pay such a cost.
Neither do they have any right to undermine our defence by
lobbying with questionable elements within the Pakistani
establishment. If these so called Pakistanis have a problem with
their tax money being spent on Pakistan`s defence they are free to
attempt to acquire an alternate citizenship. ``
Thank you for your detailed notes on Pakistan`s defense capabilities. the glaring fact is that we cannot match India`s defence capabilties. We can`t match India`s Economy. We cannot match India`s better diplomatic relations with the US either.

I think that peace lovers will be the reason why people may continue to have a Pakistani citizenship and live to fight another day.

Iqbal also said:

Zamaane ke saaz badal gaye
Naya raag hai, saaz badal gaye
In any case we cannot afford indigenous manufacture of weapons. Amin Saleh`s figures were an excellent analysis of the situation.

With reference to your above paragraph. PAkistan can save itself from being bullied by being more responsible in its behaviour. Our diplomatic relations with the world have suffered due to corruption in high places, not because of having a weak military. In your opinion later on in the article, Japan has to listen to the US because of poor defense inspite of a budget surplus. This is not true. In Economics a surplus is as bad as a deficit for different reasons. It implies a future contraction in the size of the Economy.

Also, respectabilty has also to do with integrity than just with power. I respect the Japanese in spite of a small defense budget:-). Perhaps they have learnt the futility of war after centuries of being a hostile, insular nation.

I think signing NPT is not a price but a wise move to protect the country`s future. It would silence a large majority of our neighbours and trading nations. Of-course, you may choose to see it as a humiliation defeat or chmacha geery. If we are indeed a peace loving country like we constantly say in the press, than we should not let egos stand as a barrier to peace.

As a taxpayer, I do have a problem thinking that 80% went to people outside my country. 40% for debt servicing. 40% for `indigenous` missile development. Pakistan does not have the capability to make a mobile phone and they have made a missile. I am a little skeptical of such priorities if not such claims. I want my tax money doing something effective like alleviating poverty, increasing literacy, improving medical health, lowering population, not to be used as facades for fragile egos. If u ask me the next meal of the poor beggar child on the street is more important then Ghauri.

I don`t think cutting our defense budget to 30% and putting 10% to good use and developing the wealth of the nation will in any way endager our sense of morality, self-respect or identity. In fact, it will allow us to be a bit more responsible and honest.

Re Amir, Napoleon and US`s National Pride.

Thanks for the condescension. That you had the US example in mind is precisely what I commented on. I said exactly where the military-prowess-motivated national pride has led to - to the New World Order, Global Cop Attitude of the present US regime and nation. In my mind a very Nazi, Napoleonic World View. Hence my (as you so graciously proclaimed) passionate response to your (to be gracious) passionate opinion that a jolly good way to instil national pride is to spend on defence. (Or are you going to deny that you ever meant that?).

I whole heartedly endorse Rehan Rizvi`s point of view. The imbalance we need to correct is that between military spending and social development expenditure. The greater threat to Pakistan’s national security is the absence of human and economic development, and good governence. What is needed is internal security, a war on economic, social and political decay, if you will. The overwhelming majority of the people of Pakistan don’t have the basic necessities of life: access to potable water, basic healthcare & nutrition, education and jobs. I could state all the depressing human development indices, but I am sure you are aware of them. The procurement, or indigenous development, of the latest and greatest military hardware doesn’t improve any of these basic necessities. Pursuing the course you suggest merely exacerbates an already pathetic situation. If we don’t provide the basics, there will be nothing to defend from any external threat. India faces similar problems and has no intention to take on more of the same by occupying Pakistan.

The loss of East Pakistan is no ones fault but ours, and ours alone. India merely capitalized on a situation that we created thanks to the arrogance of the politicians and people of West Pakistan. If I were India, and I wanted to destroy Pakistan, I would continue to force Pakistan into an arms race that bleeds it dry economically. Even though Pakistan’s total military expenditure is less than India’s, per person, Pakistan spends about 4 times what India does. If we continue with this escalation in spending we are sure to slide into an abyss. This strategy proved to be highly successful for the US against the USSR. At the end of the cold war there was no USSR left.

It’s about time we woke up to the reality that we can never achieve military and economic parity with India. What is need is for us to put our house in order by setting our priorities straight. Establish peaceful relations with our neighbors through diplomatic and economic ties, reduce the military expenditure and fund social sector development with the savings.

For me, national pride is not a matter of who has more bombs and rockets. I am proud to be a peace loving Pakistani.

If we are to exist and prosper in the next fifty years, it will be based on knowledge based technological edge. Definitely not on military edge. (I am swayed by your `indigenous` argumrent-- but not enough)

Without being Machiavelian, there is something to be said about accepting `temporarily` hedgemony. With the time bought, it should be full speed ahead for accelerated development on technological and commercial fronts.

Note what two economic giants Japan and (W) Germany achieved in the fifty years after their surrender. Spared of Arms expenditure, how they pulled themselves up from their socks.

With renewed dedication and focus on technological edge we can reinterpret Iqbal

Koi andaaza kar sakhta hai ooskay zor-e-bazu ka
Nigah-e-mard-e-Momin say badal jati hain taqdeeraqin

Both India and Pakistan are ``eating grass`` over
Kashmir. That drives everything in both countries. We in Pakistan should take the lead in
unilaterally diffusing the Kashmir issue. Let the
Kashmiris fight for their own independence, pursue
open trade with India and become an economic powerhouse. Pakistan cannot afford to go on and on
and on like this ....

the pakistan military, the one national institution on which we have spent most of our national wealth, has done more damage to its own people (closely followed by the damage it has done to afghanistan) than to any `enemy`. continuing to spend more money on it doesnt make sense.

also, `national pride` (whatever that means) does not have to be linked to how `good` or `big` our military/military capability is. these are very destructive and violent criteria for judging a nation`s worth and we should think beyond that. there are many other areas we can work on, even as a poor country, to set an example in the world.

and, i would appreciate not being told to find alternate citizenship because my views differ from the author`s. pretty fascist, wouldnt you say (coercing people to go to another country because they dont agree with a military build-up)?

Mr. Husain,

Revenue leakages are the fact of government and corporate entities all over the world. This does not mean that the current resources an entity has it should not use it efficiently. Yes if the government is able to raise more resources then the absolute rupees available to defence may increase but allocating 40% of all revenues to defence is a high cost in view of the current socio economic condition of the citizens of Pakistan. This is why I say it is Ghauri against food currently. Lets improve Food (this is allgorically speaking) conditions and then go for Ghauri.

As far as Pakistan`s capability of aircraft manufacture is concerned, it is importing parts from China. In fact the deletion program of the aircraft has only reached 45%. We are no more than assemblers rather than manufacturers.

To operate aircrafts we need fuel, parts, and munition. We import fuel, parts and munition. I don`t see how, given that we are already running a trade deficit of billions of dollars come up with resources to fight a war. May be we can machine parts, but then we need high quality steel. Where in Pakistan are we manufacturing high quality steel that would suffice us in quantity during the war. Where are we going to get the fuel, locally (we are not talking about motor gasoline but aviation kerosene).

Military development, I agree has contributed to commercial products, but please what % of commercial products were military byproducts. Lets not kid ourselves. The multiplier affect is not more than 0.1.

Quran will also quote to you Sulah Hudabia. This gave Muslims a chance to develop their economies and administrative base, education and social conditions which enabled them to conquer and manage Mecca.

As I had said special steel (these have controlled elements) that meet the specific tensile and heat properties that are required for jet propulsion system.

Just because the name of the company is Quality Steel does not imply that they make the quality of steel that would be useful for military purposes. During Z.A.Bhutto`s time a Special Steel plant was put up but given that it was operated by the public service, neither the quality nor quantity has been maintained. The country can hardly meet the steel requirement of it munitions plants.

The question, on the fuel, is not what is currently available in Pakistan but the capability to manufacture it locally (advanced propulsion systems - solids, liquids, hybrids, etc.).

Thank you for a very informative article. I agree with you completely that the defense industry of Pakistan has be completely indigenous. Unfortunately that is about all that I agree with regarding the spirit of your article. Please allow me the liberty to express myself candidly.

I consider myself to be a Pakistani, and that means that I would readily contribute my services for the benefit of my country. (And this is true of all of my friends too). However, that does not mean that I should agree with the policies of the powers that be in Pakistan.

Case in point: Pakistan has a low middle-level per capita income, however, most of the statistics that measure the quality of life in Pakistan are equivalent to those of sub-Saharan countries with per capita incomes factor of three or more smaller. This is predominantly due to the huge and unregulated defense budget of Pakistan.

The question is why does this happen? Indian threat is real, and over the years the arms race in the region has escalated to a ridiculous level. India can afford a substantially higher defense budget than us because of its larger GDP, and it is even conceivable that Pakistan is being intentionally led along the same path that took the Soviet Union to its demise. But do we have to be stupid?

Realistically our needs are entirely defensive. A sane Pakistani should not entertain dreams of invading India, we need to ensure that any aggression against us is properly answered and very costly for the aggressor. That I think should be the basic philosophy of our armed forces.

But I think that some within the top echelons of our armed forces are unfortunately motivated by something else. Even at their most honest monetarily, they dream of a greater Pakistan, a revisitation of the marauding attacks of Mahmood Ghaznavi and Muhammed Ghauri. We are dealing with a phenomenon much akin to the dreams of Greater Serbia that led to the Balkan bloodbath. To compound this problem, our counterparts on the other side of the border also have such people. It would be an understatement to call this situation insane.

Yes, Pakistan occupies a potentially strategic place on the globe. However, it is entirely a lack of imagination on our part that we interpret that only militarily. One could for example also have used the geographical location to reap some economic advantage over the past decades. The reason that did not happen was because of the linear thinking of our leadership and also because of the turbulent start of Pakistan. However, there is no reason why we should extend that into the future. We can and should undergo a paradigm shift in our identification of where our strengths lie, and what our objectives should be. If a country like Switzerland can survive intact smack in the middle of the two bloodiest wars in human history, I am sure Pakistan can follow a similar example as well.

You quoted Iqbal, but you neglected to consider the masses of Pakistanis who live in utmost poverty. Why is it that realistically conceding the military superiority of others is not acceptable, but allowing a vast portion of our people to live like animals is? Do they not also ``bow before others`` each and every day of their lives? Does that not destroy our national pride?

I think the reason is that a lot of us live in the fool`s paradise of the military ``accomplishments`` of our ancestors. Iqbal too suffered from that delusion in his youth, India was under a colonial rule, and Muslims needed anything that would give them a semblance of pride. When the present and the future did not provide it, the only recourse was the past. I hope we grow out of this very quickly, Pakistan is a reality, which by the very process of its creation, has started a new chapter that should hopefully be unhindered by spectres of the past.

There are a lot of wars to be fought within Pakistan, the daily and continuous toll of these wars is far greater than any external wars we can even imagine. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis die or are affected every year because they do not have access to even the basic health and nutritional requirements of a human being. How many people is that in 50 years and how many more years should we continue to go on that way? And there is the rising storm of illiteracy, fanaticism, poverty and paranoia. Is this what we want to protect through our huge defense budget?

What is needed is balance, and a rational look at our priorities. The military is, and should be treated as the option of defense when all else fails. It is not the most important organ of the state and it should not be aggressive, period. All of our differences with our neighbours can (and should) be solved through diplomacy.

Very good article Amir, and you do a good job at

going through the options available for Pakistan.

You mentioned that Pakistan has obtained some helicopters from Russia for Military use, I was not aware of that, could you give more detail about types etc?

You give very detailed view of the way from here and to the future, but seem only to be dealing with Air Force and to some extend the Navy. Army is the part of Pakistani Armed forces that is largest, and takes up most of the budget. If you have any information about how far the Al-Khalid 2000 MBT plans have come, could you please include that?

I read a report some time back that Pakistan started out working on a AAM long time back, and that some success was gained, but the program was ended due to pressure from US. Any news on that program or other programs currently under planning for production of AAM.

Pakistan have little or no long range Maritime

capability. Ok, we do have the Orion, but no long range bombers for maritime (or others for that sake) role. Obtaining Tu-22 from Russia would be a good option, if they would sell. Chinese copies will probably be what Pakistan have to go with though.

You also mention in your article :

`` It is worth mentioning that some of the aircraft PIA is retiring, such as A300s, F-27s and even B-747s, could be used very effectively by

Pakistan Air Force and Navy to provide extremely long range maritime operations, transport capability and air-air refueling.``

This seem like an excellent option.

The harpoon, in addition to be placed on ships and submarines, should be adapted to a coastline defence role, however this might be a problem because of limited numbers of these. Chinese silkworm is a extremely capable missile aswell, and could be used in this respect. (Much the same way Iran has deployed them.)

Like you said in one of the replies, Pakistan has sold light aircrafts to several other countries, however more agressive export should be sought. Why not sell SAMs like Anza and MBT (whenever those come into production) to obtain hard currency?

W`salam

Shoaib