The Battle For Kosovo

Reply Ferozk

Well Analyzed. Some thoughts ....

1. After expelling the kosovars, Milosevic will move the serbian refugees from Bosnia and other republics to Kosova and settle them there. This operation would be completed in another 30 days or so once the kosovars are completely evicted. They would also alter the census records to show a different demography within Kosova. So even if some sort of a political settlement is reached for limited autonomy for the kosovars within serbia, the kosovars would find their position considerably diluted even in the post war scenario and everybody else (NATO and milosevic included ) will go to bed happier than before.

2. Russia can be expected to have strong reservations on the use of ground forces against its slavic brothers. Wonder how NATO will handle this ?

3. The situation is hopeless for the Kosovars. A practical scenario would be to just resign towards a future of both political, cultural, demographic and social domination by the serbs with some sort of guarantee overseed by the UN.

Rishi

One can find much in agreement with this writing.
How unfortunate that ``NATO`` did not act in this
manner seven years ago during Serbia`s war against
Bosnia.

Ras

Excellent analysis of the situation. However, i would argue, that instead of Nato getting stuck in the quagmire of a ground war going village to village, the audacious move would be a swift strike from Hungary into Belgrade. Decapitate the dragon, and the tail (all Yugo forces in Kosovo) withers and dies, writhing in pain, thrashing like a dying eel which has had its head chopped off. A swift, ruthless strike, to seize Milosevic and occupy the Yugoslav capital, cost 1000 Nato dead. I suggest this option be implemented after 6-8 weeks of this round the clock bombardment have left the Serbs with nothing other than pitchforks to defend themselves with, and conduct genocide. After the seizure of Milosevic, and capitulation of the Yugoslav state, and its occupation, Nato can trumpet the clarion call of democracy too, and bring in all Yugoslav army-Special police unit soldiers and commanders in for war crimes and genocide trial at the Hague starting with Arkan, and Seslej. Clinton is slowly moving towards deploying ground troops, like the nephew of Caesar in Cleopatra, Octavian (the first Roman Emperor), `he will not speak for it (war), but the people of Rome will shout for it, they will demand it`, and then he will act. A few more weeks of genocide horror stories on CNN and T.V in the U.S & Western Europe, plus the continued demonization of Adolph Milosevic, and the American people and Western Europeans will begin to browbeat their leaders to do more ... let the drums of war be beaten ever more loudly. Let blood fill the streets, why sacrifice goats and sheep when they are still Serbs walking the streets? ... let the people of Serbia starve, be without drinking water, a working sewage system, heat, and food ... let them tear Slobodan Milosevic to pieces as the mob tore Nicholai Caucescu & his wife to pieces ... well, they were shot in an apc but i like the sound of it.

I am a little surprised that people are falling to the Western propoganda of this situation given the fact that the US and western powers did not intervene in Turkey, Indonesia etc where the scale of atrocities is actually much more than what is going on in Kosovo. The article portrays Serbs as these nationalistic demons and rest of the Balkans as victims...that is not true at all. Again, that is not to say that Milosevic is not committing atrocities in Kosovo. However, the situation is a lot more complex and a closer analysis reveals that all the crises in the Balkans are actually created by western powers, especially the US. The article WWIII? on the same topic by Taimur is closer to reality; however, it has some inaccurate facts which makes it easy for people to dismiss it but I think the spirit is generally correct. I have posted a reply to that article outlining some of the background to the situation.

Asad

Re: firaq # 4

The western reaction to the Balkan crisis, which you refer to as propaganda, stems from the west`s own mea culpa in standing by while the Shoah (Holocaust) was unfolding in Europe. This is an attempt by the western democracies to redeem themselves and to wash the guilt of their assciation in allowing Hitler to amass power in Germany and unleash the most destructive war in the history of humanity. Granted similar genocides are taking place in Turkey and elsewhere, but does that make what is happening in Kosovo any less tragic?

In my article, I did not paint or refer to the Serbs as political demons and I was amused to see you draw that emotative metaphor. The Serbian intentions in the region are nationalistic and Milosevic is a tyrannt cloaked in the robes of a nationalist. Also, this article of mine was written, not to summerize the historic geo-strategical situation in the region, but to argue political and military goals of NATO, not to be confused with morality, in the region and what it will take to end this crisis.

Yes, the situation is complex and that is why blaming the United States for ills of this century and for the crisis in Kosovo is simple minded and misleading. The article by Taimur, which you refer to, should not be seen in the light of my article. The intent of my article, as OMAR1974 correctly, guessed was not to list the historic inequities of the Balkans, but to argue a military-political solution to the problem. If Taimur`s article was strategic, mine was tactical in its intent.

Re: OMAR1974 # 3

Hungary as the point of origin of a NATO attack?

I would agree that would give NATO a land base there, but logistically that is highly improbable. The nature of the land campaign, due to the topography of the region, cancels out a swift campaign, because the axis of advance, into Kosovo, is on a south-west to a north-east line on a two highway corridor. Yugoslavia does not have the terrain to faciliate a rapid mechanized advance, but rather relies on the ability of the infantry to be airlifted into conflict zones, due to the hilly mountains which ring Kosovo on three sides. Any NATO incursion into Yugoslavia will be dertermined by the logistics of sustaining operations in the region and not by a time table or a schedule of advance.

A ground war, if it happens, is still two months away, because there has been no infantry based build up in the neighboring regions prior to the air war. Secondly, the NATO casualities will be determined not by the ground war, but the ability and the tolerance of the NATO`s population to accept the people dying in the conflict. Just as I mentioned in my article, about the poliltical center of gravity for Milosevic, NATO`s center of political gravity is the public opinion. As long as it stays the course, NATO will be able to fight.

Lastly, I agree with you. Belgrade should be the final goal of this war and lets hope that the Americans do end up with another coitus intertruptus as they did in Iraq. The American exit strategy should be to win this war and only an unconditional surrander by the Yugoslavs should stop this war. In that token, I agree with you; lets bomb the Yugoslavs into total submission.

Are you interested in discussing the military operations - tactics in the region aka panzer leader? I am!

Re: Rishi # 2

I agree with you on points 1 and 2, but not on political settlement just to end the war. Milosevic has to go and that is the only political settlement NATO should accept now. Rishi, the situation has gone beyond a political settlement and there should no deals with the Butcher of Belgrade.

Thus far NATO has done a superb job ... of avoiding too many Serbian civilian casualties. It has struck targets only when weather conditions were tolerable, and cancelled a hell of a lot of air missions.

Milosevic seems determined to stay it through. His forces in the field are coming under increasing pressure as supply depots of fuel/munitions/food etc are wiped out along with what seems to be just about every army and police barracks and building, including headquarters. YUgoslav industry, communications, roads, bridges, railways, airfields are being steadily `degraded`. But this will not solve the problem of the political solution to the KOsovo crisis, which lies in the withdrawal of Yugo-Serb forces from the province and a return of the refugees. It seems inevitable that ground troops will ultimately be required. Perhaps if Muslim countries were not quite so spineless, they would organize an army of around 100,000 troops plus adequate artillery, tanks and Apc`s and send it to Bosnia. NATO could continue to bomb the Serbs, and support this army`s advance and since Muslim countries would be sending in the soldiers, technically, Russia`s `line in the sand` would not have been crossed. Casualties would be higher, but the outcome would never really be in doubt.

This however is unlikely because the Balkans has too many memories of Ottoman occupation and the spectre of a Muslim army defeating the Serbs AT KOSOVO! will really re-enliven the Sebs sense of history (particularly 1389). Nor do the Europeans want to see this kind of a scenario emerge. However Kosovars are already being radicalized, and the KLA is growing, and this is a direct result of Serb repression. Give a dog a bad name and hang `em Serb strategy from the very beginning of the political crisis in 1989 when Milosevic didn`t just add fuel to the fire in Kosovo, but in fact, CREATED the fire himself. Time for him and Serbs to reap the whirlwind of Serb nationalism. Their country is already smashed, they will lose Kosovo as well. They lost it when they started treating Kosovars worse than dogs years ago.

Jane`s has a very good writeup on the KLA`s history, operations, tactics etc posted on their Kosovo web page for those interested. Basically, the Kosovars, like the Bosnians years ago, need military training. Muslim countries should at least set up a few proper training camps in Albania soon, in order to give the Kosovars a fighting chance. The guerilla forces are increasing in numbers, but lack tactical and strategic operational planning/execution capabilities for any kind of a coordinated offensive. Their lack of heavy weaponry should allow them mobility. What they need is light artillery, communications, and more weapons (machine guns, grenades, etc + discipline). The

KLA is not lacking in courage, just experience required to win this thing, and the ability to operate in large formations of upto 5,000+ men, on various sides, required to lay siege to the cities in Kosovo where the Serbs are dug in.

With NATO knocking out everything that moves, plus their supply and communications, the KLA could really make Kosovo a living hell for the Serbs if they were adequately trained and equipped. Ground troops from other countries would ofcourse make things simpler, but the KLA is he best option avilable now on the ground. It should be provided with money, weapons, and training expertise from professional armies to enable it to up the cost of occupation of Kosovo to the Serbs significantly, at least until either NATO or other copuntries find the political will to send in their own troops into the field.

With the Apaches to be operation before the end of April, the Serbs are going to find things are getting increasingly hotter for them. Survival itself (with the prospect of war crimes trials in the future) will become a desperate struggle for them. Undoubtedly this will prompt more atrocities, but since the KLA know exactly what to expect at the hands of Chetniks if they are captured, the blood letting can only intensify as the war progresses. Revenge should know no bounds.

Eventually Serb forces will find themselves locked in a death struggle with the KLA. Its possible that every Serb in Kosovo will either have to leave or die before the war can end. I do forsee over 200,000 Kosovo Serbs being made refugees at the end of this ironically enough, just like in Croatia in the Krajina. Do I feel sorry for them? Heck no! What goes around, comes around. As we sow, so shall we reap. Reap the whirlwind of hate and lies Milosevic & Serbia.

Re: OMAR1974

Just read, in Dawn, that Pakistan is sending 5K blankets and some Army medical personnel to Macedonia to help out. Why not just redeploy the Pakistani medical/staffed hospital from the Croatian city of Split. That would be faster and less of a logistical nightmare than dispatching people from Pakistan!

Read the British Ministry of Defence website. The British Royal Air Force is more aggressive than the Americans and the British are more willing to risk AAAs from the Yugoslavic air defence systems. The address is www.mod.uk/news

I still think that NATO should further increase it air sorties and let the Bundeswehr do the job. If air strikes against Yugoslav ground assets are effective, it would suggest the presence of SAS or GSG-9 and American special forces, because someone has to ``paint`` the targets with lasers for the aircraft to track with missiles! The most likely weapon used seems to be AGM-84 Super Maverick (air to ground missile).

You were right about Octivius/Bill Clinton; people are shouting and he is acting. There will be a better underestanding of the political end game in the next few days. Looks like Kosovo is going be a NATO protectorate!

G-D bless America! G-D bless President Clinton and Tony Blair! G-D Bless NATO!

Re: OMAR1974

Let me know if you agree with this assesment of the military situation in Yugoslavia after 27 days of air strikes.

It would seem, by looking at a map, that NATO is targeting specific ``choke points``. On the surface, NATO air attacks do not make any sense, but once a detailed analysis is done on the targets attacked, there is a distinct pattern. NATO is using its air assets to cut off the Yugoslavian military forces and isolate them, from reinforcements, in the Kosovo region. Contary to the press reports, NATO is not interested in de-grading them as much as it is in immobilizing them. Once it succeds in isolating them in the ``Kosovo Pocket``, the next phase of operations would be to use the AH-64 Apaches and A-10 Warthogs to eye-ball them and destroy in place and once this is done, it would create ``the permissive environment`` for the ingressing of ground troops into the region.

Those ground troops, already assembling, will not be deployed till early summer. There has been a report, unconfirmed, that NATO is planning for the use of ground troops by the end of May. There is some common sense, as to the the time frame for a ground action, in that report. Right now, the ground in Kosovo is still muddy and wet from the spring thaw and NATO will wait it hardens to support heavy armored formations. This would also suggest that NATO does not want to limit its force to the roads, believed to be mined, which can cause a log-jam of traffic and thus, make it difficult to adhere to a schedule of operations. That suggests, to extrapolate, that major cities and villages with Serb military forces will be by-passed to ``wither and die on the vine`` as NATO forces employ a blitzkreig to quickly consolidate their gains. In such an operation, the use of mechanized forces with airborne and heliborne infantry would be indicative of rapid ``drop and sieze`` tactics to control key lines of communications to aid NATO forces advancing into Kosovo proper.

A clearer picture will emerge in about 2-3 weeks, but this is what the situation seems to shaping up as. Furthermore, as the weather over the Balkans clears, the rate of air sorties will increase as NATO works through its ``target list``. I think your comment about Clinton being the reluctent bride was apt. Already public opinion seems to leaning towards the use of ground troops and sooner or later, Clinton will bow to the ``public pressure and congressional advice`` and send in the troops. Right now the administration seems to working through its own list:

1) Is my ass covered?
2) Do I need to cover it some more?
3) If all fails, is there a scapegoat?
4) Can I spin a claim of possible denability?


Presently, we are at #2, because it seems that the option to use ground forces, though denied, is no longer rejected, but hinted as still being a viable option.

It is going to be an interesting summer!

FerozK: I whole heartedly agree with your analysis of NATOs strategy in dealing with Serb forces in Kosovo. I think the tank killing phase is going to start this week as AH-64s and A-10s plus F-16s start to get near the ground and strike tanks and Apc`s. The KLA, U.S Special forces and British SAS plus Sattelite photography,

air recon missions and UAVs will be used more aggressively to point point Serb ground assets and the choppers and ground attack planes will go in for the kill. Once the bulk of the tanks and Apc`s and a significant percentage of the artillery are knocked out, the KLA will up the ante in Kosovo. The strategy of cutting off Serb forces frpom reinforcements and resupply makes perfect sense as far as NATOs target list goes thus far (April 19th).

NATO troops may indeed invade over the summer.

Clinton is doing what he is best at, allowing public opinion to come into his favor. By Summer it should be at around 60% in his favor. I think NATO would want a 10 day war. In order for that to happen they must cut off the fuel/mun supplies to the Serb forces now. Their campaign thus far makes perfect sense if this is their presumed developing strategy. Also, a slow buildup of NATO troops has been occuring. They are projected to be upto at least 20,000 NATO troops in Macedonia, and more NATO troops are arriving in Albania to help with the refugee crisis ... and to protect the Apache`s. I think NATO exaggerates the time frame it would take to deploy a large army in the region by stating 1-2 months minimum. Lets not forget that this conflict is on NATO`s doorstep. Even if Greece and Bulgaria won`t cooperate and Albanian harbours and airfields are woefully inadequate, i think 1 month is the very maximum NATO needs once a political decision has been made to invade Kosovo, considering the assets it already has on the ground in the region, including i`m sure now, the start of the buildup of an infrastructure to support a much larger number of troops.

Albania and Macedonia seem to be the most likely invasion routes. The choice of Hungary would be more politically problematic, even though the capture of Belgrade/Milosevic would acheive NATO`s political objectives much more simply than a ground war in Kosovo and a long term presence in the region to safeguard the territory`s boundaries and people with an undefined time frame. Its obviously much better and more cost effective to arm the KLA, and let it defend Kosovo itself in the long term to deter Serb aggression in the future. Long term problem of the 10% Serbs in Kosovo might make the West uneasy about arming the Albanians though.

Re:OMAR1974

NATO strategy seems to headed that way. Here is a hint; instead of watching CNN and other talk show primadonnas, watch or surf websites which discuss the types of weapons platforms deployed in the area, because that will be a better insight to the nature of any NATO operation in the region. Without going into much detail, just remember the war in the Gulf and the ``Hail Mary`` tactic used to fool Saddam Hussein`s forces! According to the reports, in NATO press briefings, the Serbs are still reinforcing their troop levels in Kosovo. If the intention is to create a pocket, the trickle would explain the lack of effort to close the gaps.

I think the F-16CJs are being used as you said in the role of forward air controllers and the AH-64s and A-10s should be in action as you suggested. The spec-ops will be used for recon, search and destroy missions and are likely to be used to create corridors into Kosovo for the ground forces to move in. Just read that elements of the 82nd Airborne are in Albania and that Blackhawks are being moved into the region!

There is an errie simlarity with Vietnam in the type of tactics which might be used. As Vietnam was intersected with rivers, Kosovo is intersected with mountains; hence the use of helicopters to move troops rapidily by overcoming natural obstacles. Incidently, this is off tangent, but the Indian Army, in 1971 war, brilliantly employed helicopters to leap-frog Pakistani river defences which our generals thought would be impregneable! We were fighting a static war and the Indian were fighting a mobile war! Using mobile tactics, the Indians merely rendered our defences useless. Study the disposition of Serb forces and you`ll see a linear pattern to their deployment. I am thinking that a NATO attack will come out of Bosnia; not from the southeast of Macedonia.

Also, those NATO troops helping the refugees are multi-tasked - they can be easily turned into combat troops! Right now, it is like a chess game. The pieces are slowly being moved and I think the use of Bulgarian, Hungarian and now Romanian airspace is a ruse to distract the Serbs from Kosovo and force them to look else where. NATO troops out of Macedonia might feint towards Kosovo and you`re right, NATO time table is intended to create uncertanity. NATO already has heavy armor in Bosnia, with IFOR, and the terrain is pretty level east of Bosnia; ideal for fast moving armor! In this case, there seems to more than one way to skin the cat!