Fears of a Military Coup in Pakistan

Dear Chowkwallas:

Pakistani politics is very intriguing. Army has been a major actor in Pakistan. It has been a major source of our problems too. I don`t support the growing power of Army at least at the cost of the miseries of common people. Ideally, there should be no Army. Realistically, the institution of Army need to be made more useful and its expenditure drastically reduced. This is a point that Air Marshall Asghar Khan has also supported recently.

We had two major Martial laws in Pakistan. Ayub Khan`s Martial law came at a time when the western financial institutions were providing lavish support (loans) for the developmental projects based on the notion of modernization (and to curtail the growing power of Soviet Union and China). In Ayub`s period, Pakistan apparently progressed economically. But, Ayub engaged in the 1965 war, widened the gap between the rich and poor, and crushed the democratic forces and public opinion. This eventually led to the inevitable separation (and independence) of Bangali-Pakistanis (this point is highly debatable). Zia`s Marshall law created too many other difficulties. His major fault was Pakistan`s indirect involvement in the Afghan affairs (and conflict with the Soviet Union). He also defaced democracy in Pakistan. Zia was a weak and threatened ruler. He used Islam to empower himself and he used the policy of divide and rule. Pakistani history, however, suggests that the apparently meek Pakistani silent majory had/has its limits too. Dictators have come and perished in Pakistan. However, during their heyday, it always appeared that they were invincible.

Nawaz Sharif was trying to turn into another Pakistani Machiavelli. Although we still do not know the course of events ahead, the Army had no constitutional authority to depose a democratically elected (though internally very weak and intellectually bankrupt) Prime Minister. Pakistan`s constitution has been defaced during the past twenty or so years. We need a new constitution that can assure the supreme power of the people, the rule of law (not mere danda), and security of a true Federation of Pakistan where the rights of ``all`` of its citizens are fully guaranteed and respected.

Sincerely, Bilal Ahmad

The way events were shaping up, it was clear that

democracy was on its way out in Pakistan even

before the coup. Nawaz Sharif had violated all

the institutions of the state. His government was

democratic only in name. The real choice before

the pakistani nation was either dictatorship in

democratic guise, or army rule. That the latter

has happened is probably a blessing in diguise

for Pakistan.

Anyway I doubt that martial law will be imposed.

I think what will emerge is a ``National

Reconciliation`` Government of technocrats, ruling

with the blessing of the army. Dr. Moeen Qureshi,

are you listening?

As for Kashmir, we should all stop hoping for a

solution for a long, long time. It is not that

the issue cannot be resolved. Kashmir DOES have a

solution, probably many. My personal preference

is for a Northern Ireland ``Good Friday`` type

solution which will bring our two nations closer,

with Kashmir being the common bond which binds us

together. That way all the parties, including the

too-often neglected Kashmiris, will be happy. Yet

any such solution requires a will to move

forward. But with Kashmir being hailed as the

major irritant in Indo-Pak relations, and the

strength of the Pak amy being derived from their

role as protectors of Pakistan from the ``evil

Indians``, this will is unlikely to materialize.

As for Siachen, I agree wholeheartedly that India

should withdraw from there, PROVIDED that

Pakistan simultaneously agrees to some

confidence-building measures that India proposes.

This whole issue has been dragged out too long.

The problem is that both our governments have

become so focussed on issues like this, that they

have forgotten that the solution to Kashmir does

not lie through Siachen, or Kargil for that

matter. Such petty tit-for-tat is only likely to

bleed both of us. The way our two nations treat

each other would be funny, if it were not so

deadly. Even if trust is too much to expect right

now, there is still so much to be gained by way

of limited co-operation with each other. So why

aren`t we able to do better?

-narain

It seems that nearly all Pakistanis in Pakistan and abroad have welcomed this change. They do realize that its not an ideal situation and in an ideal situation the Army does not step in. But they see that what matters most is ground realities. Nawaz`s government was as close to any dictatorship that Pakistan has experienced.

The future is uncertain, but news from home indicates that generally people are relieved. It seems that foreigners (Indians, Americans, the world) are more worried than Pakistanis. At least the tables have turned if only for a moment.

This shows the level of trust and confidence that Pakistanis have in the Army as opposed to Nawaz or at this point any other politician.

I agree with others who feel that Pakistan needs a long (at least 2 year) interim caretaker government, made up of various political, judicial and armed force heads, until the people of Pakistan are ready and responsible enough for democracy. Until then democracy can be a tool used by abusers. Nawaz had nearly perfected his empire with all institutions acting on his behalf. It had to happen, what was surprising was the timing and who would do it.

Pakistan needed a little shaking up, the people were very depressed and this helped at least motivate and encourage some people who may have given up hope. The future however is still uncertain, but the General has evoked a good response and has instilled confidence in many - including myself.

Peace.

Some people are saying the army should not have taken over and should have left the eventualities of the nation in the hands of the people. The way things were going, I foresaw a very bloody and violent revolution as the only way things were going to change.

Isn`t a bloodless coup better than a long and violent revolution, where the outcome is as uncertain as our future at this point, if not more?

Just a thought.

Haniya

Re: Zahra

A democratically elected government is answerable to the people atleast once in 5 years. And if the majority of the people so desire the government can be made answerable in lesser time (though at a significant cost). Now how is the Army answerable to the people ??

The army is not the solution. The army`s position is in the borders and the barracks . Not in the parliament. As an elected representative of the People, Nawaz has the right to retire a General. The General was never elected by the people to retire Nawaz.. Dig the difference ?

Now if you want to counter argue that the people desired this Army rule, then i have no arguments...

People deserve the governments they get. With this kind of a sentiment , Pakistanis deserve the banana republic despots more than democracy

Rishi

p.s: if i am not wrong, you do have a personal relationship with the Armed forces, don`t you

The news was as surprising to us here as it was to anyone abroad. And true to form, all the information we had was also through the foreign TV media as my phone went dead at some time in the afternoon. It`s still dead, but I guess that pales in comparison to the issue at hand. I have to admit though, a basic barometer of my respect for any new government will be `is my phone going to be fixed before the millenium`?
The evening paper headlines read `dissolution or martial law`. The general (funny how we all now automatically know who he is) is still locked in consultation with his top commanders. PTV is very kindly keeping us entertained with hockey matches and milli naghmas. No one knows what goes on with Nawaz Shariff but it is hoped by many that this is a time of introspection for him. What was he thinking making the head of the ISI the commander of the armed forces?
Public reaction has been muted so far. There isn`t any dancing in the streets but there aren`t any protest marches either. Schools are open, as are colleges and shops. Traffic is normal. Bankers are closeted in meetings discussing all eventualities even though the banks are closed. My sweeping woman did congratulate me though, as did my mother, two people whose judgement I tend to trust. Many are breathing a quiet, private sigh of relief. Voicing your own opinion has been becoming a bit risky lately, and maybe people are waiting to see whether those in power right now are moderate or fanatic. How well we`ve been trained to react to these situations, and with what equanimity do we accept such drastic changes.
Last time I checked, Pakistan was still doing it`s yo-yo dance to the tune of invisible puppet masters. Like most of my countrymen and women, I`m also waiting to see. the only thing we have left to give people is a chance.

shandana minhas

Re:UR#40

One of the employees working under me is a Pakistani whose father is a retired army officer in Pakistan. I have had a lot of informal conversations with him and you are quite correct to state that the Pakistani army is very professional. By the way, this person`s family is close to Pervaiz Musharraf. Apparently the general`s son studies somewhere in the US. The general is a fairly westernized, open minded person. He may have launched Kargil to score some points with the Pakistani establishment but he is not some extremist, Taliban type character.

Interestingly, Pervaiz Musharraf is perhaps the first Mohajir to rule Pakistan after Liaquat in the early 50s.

We know from the previous few days that the signs of a possible coup were there- particularly after the `warning` by the united states of america. after the kargil affair, there had been a lot of resentment toward NS from the junior and upper level officers of the Pak. army over the way the entire situation was handled. one argument going around was that if NS wanted to use Kargil for political gains, he should not have done so since it was at the expense of pakistani troops. the `political gain` being `helping` re-install the Vajpayee government (this view some people hold regardless of the chronological inconsistencies amongst several others).

But there is a larger context. Nawaz Sharif was playing around with the structure of the army thinking he could get away with it just as he got away after humuliating the Supreme court and basically shutting down the parliament via consitutional amendments stating that anyone who votes against the party leadership, abstains from voting, or even voices an opposing view can be dismissed from his/her parliamentary seat. After having taken care of any possible opposition, the army, the only remaining functional and professional institution in Pakistan (despite scary propoganda statements from outside of pakistan), was all that was left. And his power hungry head couldn`t abstain from meddling with it`s structure. He tried to win over selected Generals. A couple of days back, in Dawn`s news item, one of these generals(Lt.-Gen. Tariq Pervez) was dismissed by the COAS General Pervez Musharraf for having tried to establish political contacts with NS as this is strictly against army discipline. A possible theory is that NS wanted to take revenge for this disciplinary dismissal on COAS Musharraf by appointing another one of NS`s `lifafa Generals` (this term I coined rather unoriginally from the `lifafa journalists` that NS popularized in his first tenure when he bribed journalists after inviting them for dinner/lunch and handed them out stashes of cash and other goodeis in envelopes/lifafas) after sacking COAS Musharraf.

Fortunately, it seems so far, that the other Corp. Commanders have thrown their full support to Pervez Musharraf. However, how he and the army try to maneauver out of this unconstitutional move that they have done remains to be seen. Pervez Musharraf WAS dismissed a few hours before he staged a coup- this could have been a complication but seems to be resolved.

It isn`t to justify anything as this is a really sad situation for Pakistan to be in- just as it was sad to see Pakistan blow up nuclear bombs in 98- but as with the bombs issue, this move by the army was under a do-or-die situation created by external factors. Either the army could have sat still and accepted the `Crore Commanders` to be bought out and thus see the erosion of the last professional institution, or act. Despite what the international media says about it`s love and support for democracy, for the armed forces, this was a clear black and white situation. Nawaz Sharif, with his manifestation of the pakistani culture of corruption, took it unbelievably too far. Despite my sheer lack of sympathy for anything involving the army, I honestly think the army had no choice but to make a move.

NS had himself, committed plenty of unconstitutional moves of his own. The storming of the supreme court and humuliating the judges by NS`s supports and PML parliamentarians was so disgusting there could be nothing more unconstitutional. Here was the government, openly degrading and mocking the very court that is the ultimate judge of the constitution. And everyone of those members of the gang got away with insulting the Chief Justice on the Supreme court floor. That was the blackest day in Pakistan`s history (after of course the fall of Dhaka). He had successfully bought some of the judges, but the army proved to be a harder nut to crack.

In all this, my main and only regret is that the Kashmir issue will again be dragged on and on. NS and Vajpayee could have solved it despite claims from Pakistan of NS selling out. I think that after NS had said that the Northern Areas were going to be given a constitutional status, there could be no doubt in anyone`s mind that yes, the Kashmir issue would be solved and the LoC would become the international border. Because once Northern Areas/Baltistan gain a constitutional status, despite it being a disputed territory, Pakistan loses the right it has for claiming the entire Kashmir (pakistani and indian) region being disputed and under the UN resolution, bound to a plebicite. A little geography on Pakistani part of Kashmir: out of the 1/3 of the entire Kashmir region under the control of Pakistan, 85% is under the name of Northern Areas/Baltistan as the people of these areas don`t speak Kashmiri and have forever tried to push this region to become the 5th republic of Pakistan(Baltistan was `given` by the British to the kashmiri maharaja for his loyal services to the british- I think this is correct). But Pakistan, if it was to continue claiming Kashmir must have a plebicite, had to maintain the Northern Areas outside it`s constitutional framework. That NS wanted to bring it into the Pakistan federation clearly showed that NS and Vajpayee had the groundwork laid out (thus the `I told you so`s` by those claimed Kargil was a staged drama). As it was, Vajpayee and NS were probably the only two leader who could have taken an initiative on Kashmir and solved it once and for all. I never liked NS, but only wished he was (inevitably) kicked out after he had solved/sold-out the kashmir issue.

So Pakistan is back to square one where `democracy` is concerned. I can only hope some meaningful change is done rather than a mere relection without any accountability.

Jay:

As I stated in an earlier reply, your information about Pakistan seems to be based on what you read in the newspapers, and in the press. Could you let me know whether you have ever been in Pakistan, and lived there? I do not mean any disrespect to you. However, the reason I ask this question is that you seem to be coming up with views on Pakistan without really having any authoratative information on Pakistan. I feel this is what leads to misunderstandings between Pakistanis and Indians. They rely on second hand information to form their views.

Your analysis of the whole Pakistan-India scenario is way off the mark, because although you understand the Indian motiviations, you do not understand the Pakistani viewpoints. Nawaz Sharif seems to be quite popular with you. The only reason I can see for this is that he pulled back from Kargil. The fact that he has completely screwed the Pakistani populace seems to carry no weight with you. The reasons for his pulling back from Kargil are not yet known. Maybe he had personal interests. India carried out a similar kind of operation in Siachen. If you look at the Simla accords, and extend the line of demarcation along Siachen, it actually falls under Pakistani territory (even though it is not specificaly marked, the rules imply an extension of the line, at a certain angle). The actual aim of Kargil was to cut the supply routes to Siachen, from India. Would you support a back out of the Indian army from Siachen, just like you would support a back out of the Pakistani army from Kargil? Would Vajpayee be popular in India if he pulled out Indian troops from Siachen? Obviously not. I would support a pullout of Indian troops from Siachen, as well as a pullot of Pakistani troops from Kargil. You need to be fair to both sides, and not just look at the Indian point of view. Indian occupation of Siachen is as much an aggresion as Pakistani occupation of Kargil. The only difference is that India has yet to pull out.

To insist that Nawaz Sharif was kicked out only because of Kargil is extremely naive. It indicates you are looking at only the issue that effects India, without looking at the many issues regarding Nawaz Sharif that effect Pakistan. This will only create misunderstandings, that should be avoided. Please do not try to become an expert on Pakistani affairs with only half-baked and second hand knowledge of the country. I try my level best to avoid that when I am discussing India.

To UR,

Individuals in isolation, in one to one dealings are largely same, but collectively as represented by the institutions tend to have a different colouration. To give you an example, when i used to deal with consumtion data of developed countries, the figures are staggering, say in paper( not toilet) consumtion, per capita for the US is 20 times that of india. Naturally, i presumed that in the developed countries individuals waste paper till i came to see the working. There is nearly a kolo of paper stuufed into the mail box, another kilo i get as unsolicited addressed mail, aweekly edition of newspaper is a kilo, of which i need hardly a page, the list goes on. But still at individual level, in the housholds they use one sided paper to scribble. It is the institutions, the advertising strategies, the notion agressive marketing that determines, unfortunately the per capita numbers which the world can see.

There is something very similar with collectve human behaviour, the political institutions respond to some underlying values, which cannot be distincly traced in individual behaviors, it could even be the opposite as house holds try to save money by using one sided paper.

As ``two-nation`` stated the under lying factor could be that the rules need to be per the koran, which is very valid and may be even desirable.

25 years each, under democracy and military rule can prove only onething, both are not suitable for pakistan.

I am rather dispondent by your conclusion, your hope and prayers for a good leader, when sheriff, elected with a landslide in pak history has turned `bad`.

In several posts i have tried an alternate perspective on pak preoccupation with removing corruption. In the new style, let me conclude it with a real life story.

Dr.Dharma Teja ( his Phd supervisor was Enrico Fermi) held the indian record for bribe, 2 crore rupees in the 1970s and was the hand picked chairman of Shipping Corporation of India by Nehru. He usually got a comission in the puchase and leasing of ships and his defence in the court was that he actually got prices less than than the going rates because of his superior negotiating skills and he took bribe only when he was convinced that the company is not harmed.

I will accept corruption any day instead of incompetance.

I have an incompetance story from a developed country, no corruption, but 2 billion dollars vanished, that is another for time.

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Mr. Goyal:

When a person is writing in a flow, one cannot isolate a line or two. I mentioned that I have read a few “Informative Articles ” on CNN and BBC so your concerns to dissect my thoughts on Civilan vs Armed Forces and vice versa should be revisited. The systematic anarchy that was destroying the State Institutions has been a major concern.

My “excitement” (sarcasm intended) was a surprise on the disgraceful and insulting treatment given to the Army Chief. Had the person been a non-existing entity then such a treatment could have been hidden but that was not the case here. God forbid, if there is war tomorrow your Kahil and Sustul Wajood Civilians are going to be sitting in front of media giving empty statements than being the ones facing the enemy. Who is dying on the borders and in the cold and treacherous mountains? Do not tell me that is their job!



On the other hand, I am not saying that Army is going to be the ultimate heaven, I am just feeling bad on the reckless decision of Mr. PM & his advisors that led him to this day. Besides all the ups and downs during his tenure, he has done some constructive work as well. One should give the devil its due.

Last but not the least, if there is no unity within a community then one is exposing oneself to all the wolves in the surroundings. Now the conniving wolves will try to take advantage of the internal anarchy. Therefore, if there WAS any rift or difference of opinion then that should have been settled once the fellow was back home. How can you appoint a person at such a position and then kick him out with a Thank You card saying “Have an Early Retirement” This is simply disgraceful. That makes one believe that there is no sanctity of any institution within the country, be it judiciary or armed forces. How could a wise ruler expose his Baewaqoofi so openly?

Though being an optimist I strongly believe:

two nations:

I agree with you on the fact that democracy has to be nurtured, and the people need to be allowed to kick corrupt govts. out of power, through elections, and not through coups. But what if the system is such that corrupt govts. cannot be kicked out? What if they control the judiciary, and can manipulate the elections? What if they declare all types of civilian protests as, ``terrorist activities?`` What if the govt. nurtures religious fanatics? What if the govts. in power take the country to the brink of bankruptcy? What if the rulers treat the country like their own corporation? Technically speaking your argument is absolutely correct. But as much as I would like to agree with you, in this case I cannot. Pakistani politics is filled with too many catch-22s and anomolies. That`s why the same people keep coming back again and again. Benazir and Nawaz Sharif have only been kicked out, when a situation has been reached where the country was turning into a basketcase; when the govt. could not even pay the its employees` salaries? As long as NS and BB do not come back into power, and as long as the army hands over the power to some sort of a civilian govt., I think Pakistan will be better off after the coup, then before it. Otherwise, Pakistan will be worse off. This may sound strange to the purists supporting democracy, ``under any and all circumstances``, but I believe the ground realities bear it out.

Countries in South America have had democratically elected, ``thugs`` ruling them for decades. These countries have made no progress. Farid Zakria (the famous foreign affairs commentator in the US) talks about these democratically elected dictatorships in a lot of detail.

Jay:

After reading your various replies, I continue to get the feeling that your only knowledge of Pakistan is through newspapers and media. Seems like you have never lived there. Is that correct? Your arguments about Pakistan and the motivations of Pakistanis seem to completely miss the mark. The average Pakistani is not the fanatic that you make him/her out to be. They are as intelligent, and balanced as any Indian. They have the same motivations that anybody else has, i.e. a better life for themselves and their families. You probably have good intentions, but I am not quite sure whether you have enough information about the dynamics of the Pakistani society to comment on it authoratatively.

It seems like NS scored a lot of points with Indians by backing out of Kargil (that`s a separate discussion). At the moment, Pakistan needs to have leadership that is popular amongst Pakistanis. Whether it is popular with India or the US should be a secondary issue.

Having spent 13 years in the Pakistan military as an officer (now retired), I think I understand the workings and attitudes of the Pakistan military quite well. The military is not the gun-totting extremists that the Indian press and some portions of the foreign press make them out to be. It is the most disciplined institution in the country. Its reputation has been tarnished by certain ambitious generals. But it is still one of the more respected, and patriotic organizations in the country.

In a comment to a different article, I had stated that the next elections would be do or die, for Pakistan. Well, the do-or-die situation has arrived earlier than expected. A lot depends on General Musharraf. If he is an opportunist, then Pakistan has had it. It will be back to the General Zia era. If he is really a patriot, then he has a chance to do quite a bit, by initiating accountability through some sort of a civilian govt. I do not support military coups, but I do not support doomsday politicians either. Perhaps, in this case, the coup is lesser of the two evils. My gut feeling is that as long as some sort of civilian govt., with no involvement from BB or NS, comes into power soon, Pakistanis will eventually thank General Musharraf. If that does not happen, or if BB and NS come back in, then Pakistanis will hate General Musharraf like they hate Zia.

As the famous proverb opposing dictatorships states, ``Best government, good czar, worst government bad czar; more bad czars than good czars.`` Lets hope and pray, this general turns out to be a good czar and does two things that Pakistan desperately needs, i.e. get the army back into the barracks ASAP, and get some sort of an accountable civilian government in the country.

It is we, the people of Pakistan who r at fault by relecting the same looters again and again! Forget about the 70% uneducated Pakistanis, which r living in rural areas(living as slaves). Look at the people of Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad; they r electing the same people and same political parties over and over.

Isnt it pathetic.

We r DUMB, no doubt about it!

to two-nation

That is one of the great ideas to hit the chowk, a supreme council of clerics and the army who rules by the koran. Then below that some form of democracy, this is the kind of ideas pakistan needs.

There is also the indonesian model, 50% of the seats in the parliment are by military nominations. In pakistan it could be 25-25 for the military and the clerics.

Need of the hour is a new model, you are the first person on the chowk to put so succinctly, the system of pakistan is such that it has to be in the book and the book is not constitution.

What is needed at present is a louder voice for the mullahs, and an acceptance by the pak public that the military and the mullahs are together, and they executed the kargil.

Peace with india will anhilate pakistan, sheriff was on the verge of doing it, kargil and the coup has prevented it. Long live pakistan, a new pakistan emerging from the freezing clouds of kargil.

Had enough of these politicians. Last four governments (PPP, PML, PPP, PML, ) has only harmed the country. They have bankrupted our country.

At this point we, as pakistani citizens have no choice. If we dont accept the U.S. terms and conditions, we wont have anything to eat day after tomorrow. AND that is no exageration, beleive me. There is God, but hey fellow citizens it is the U.S. who feeds us.

No aid- no dollars- no wheat- no oil. It is that simple.