Again, Desperate Times

DEEP DENIAL

Somebody used the phrase ``deep denial`` recently

on chowk. I think we are all in deep denial when it comes to the Civil and Military bureaucracy in Pakistan. The fact of the matter is that the military and civil bureaucracies appropriate the bulk of the country`s wealth. Pakistan has been effectively turned into an animal that is a cross between a garrison state and a colonial enclave with the natives continuing to grow bananas. People like Professor Rashid living in the Cantt have also benefited from the system. The Cantt represents the most expensive real estate in the country. To expect him to raise questions about defence spending is expecting something he is not designed for. He has other good reasons. They will lift him up in the middle of the night and move him to an unknown destination. So like an old Soviet style academician cum functionary one does not expect him to call a spade a spade. He will sing praises of any economic policies pronounced by Mutturro or crafted by his ``advisors`` who like to believe that they have set up a Rand Corporation for Pakistan.

Reverting to the denial business we must out of necessity debate as to what is wrong with the military establishment and question their priorities and professional decisions. They have seriously endangered our security by allowing to weaken economically. They have not left any money for education, science and technology and whatever else that makes a nation secure. Muttarraf alone has legally amassed a nifty fortune of Rs 160,000,000 million and likely to rake in more. We have to question their technical priorities as well. I am certain that we are not getting good value for money. There is something seriously wrong with the Pakistani Armed Forces if officers like Muttarraf and nuts like Gen Aziz have been advanced. Maybe the ``wrong kind of officers have been advanced`` as McArthur advised JFK. And we propably have too many generals and batmen to go with them. No wonder a maginot line military set up has emerged...

Ref: Fuzair #485

I have read your posts with great interest and a pleasant surprise, ,hearing it from a Pakistani.

{The Army was not allowed to suppress the communal riots of 1946}

The direct action casualties in 1946 were less than 2000, probably not enough to bring in the army. The number of deaths in Punjab in 1947 has been estimated at up to a million and a displacement of 11 million refugees.



{If the British would have stayed on, the partition of the Punjab would never have occurred}

I agree. A few more years of British rule was a small price to pay to avoid the cataclysm of 1947, and a legacy of hate and wars. I am no anglophile, but I am reminded of John Cleese in ``Life of Brian`` questioning:

``What have the Romans done for us, except irrigation, sanitation, education, transportation, law and order...?``

{Personally, I think that the Hindu chauvinists would have gagged on an additional 250 million plus Muslims--and five more Muslim majority states!--in addition to the 150 (?) million they have now.)

I may be wrong but I believe the Hindu chauvinists held the extreme view of ``one person, one vote`` without reservations based on caste, creed or religion. Godse`s brother is said to have kept an outline of United India on a wall like a Hindu deity to be worshipped, as atribute to his brother`s cause.

Elsewhere you described how your family protected Hindu women, even suffering injuries and death while doing so. What nobility! What rare valor!!

Ref: Fuzair #485

I have read your posts with great interest and a pleasant surprise, ,hearing it from a Pakistani.

{The Army was not allowed to suppress the communal riots of 1946}

The direct action casualties in 1946 were less than 2000, probably not enough to bring in the army. The number of deaths in Punjab in 1947 has been estimated at up to a million and a displacement of 11 million refugees.



{If the British would have stayed on, the partition of the Punjab would never have occurred}

I agree. A few more years of British rule was a small price to pay to avoid the cataclysm of 1947, and a legacy of hate and wars. I am no anglophile, but I am reminded of John Cleese in ``Life of Brian`` questioning:

``What have the Romans done for us, except irrigation, sanitation, education, transportation, law and order...?``

{Personally, I think that the Hindu chauvinists would have gagged on an additional 250 million plus Muslims--and five more Muslim majority states!--in addition to the 150 (?) million they have now.)

I may be wrong but I believe the Hindu chauvinists held the extreme view of ``one person, one vote`` without reservations based on caste, creed or religion. Godse`s brother is said to have kept an outline of United India on a wall like a Hindu deity to be worshipped, as atribute to his brother`s cause.

Elsewhere you described how your family protected Hindu women, even suffering injuries and death while doing so. What nobility! What rare valor!!

Sameer JB #530

KUTCH TO KAR KAMA KHAI MACHANDAR!

At 52 they have not grown up- at best, heeding to your advice, they can do is grow beard.!

LET MUSHARRAF BE ADVISED TO WATCH “YES MINISTER”!

RoohiAD#532

I don’t remember General Rani to have wailed at all.

Zeemax#534

The very demand that became the cause of punishment to the whole city and its satellite!

Bahmad #536

If he just succeeds in ridding the country of the feudalism in whatever short time he is allotted, in my view he would pass as THE SUCCESS! Isnt it naive to expect of him to turn the sea of red to green in a jiffy?

Umairr #538

It was over heard in an Officers Mess While they were gossiping away. The heated discussion was if sex is entertainment or a job. No body coming to an agreement it was agreed to call a recruit and ask his opinion, he said, “Sir had it been a job it would have been assigned to us!

Bilal Ahmad:

A raise of 100 rupees is not even worth mentioning in the current inflationary environment. It might buy a half kilo of meat and that`s it. I hope that the Employees Unions should reject it. Thanks but no thanks.

Zeemax:

I honestly hope that it does not come down to Zia`s fate. Unfortunately he is raising the bar too much. It will be stupid for anybody to believe that black boxes were actually blanks. All the case rests on one star witness. He originally suspended the assemblies and now completely ruling out the restoration of assemblies. Why not just dissolve them. I guess he likes status quo or suspended in the air, like the Columbo-Karachi flight. So far his seven-point agenda is 1-6) get NS scalp and 7) 100 rupees per month to each grade 1-16 employees.

Zeemax: You stated, ``The soldiers will do us a favour for not getting paid twice, and that too for not doing even a single job.`` This is an incorrect statement. I will go on a out on a limb, and take a guess that you have never been a soldier.

Having been both a soldier, and now a civilian, I can safely state that the civilian professional lifesytle is much easier, and offers a much much higher salary for the same job, than a soldier`s. Compare the pays of a PIA pilot with that of a PAF pilot. It is much more difficult to fly a PAF plane than a PIA plane. Compare the salary and lifestyle of a computer science M.S. degree holder in the army with that of a civilian professional with the same degree, doing the same job. Compare the salary of a Pak Navy officer with that of a Merchant marine officer. Compare the salary of a Brigadier managing thousands of men, to his civilian counterpart managing the same amount of people. One may like or dislike the military (I liked some aspects of it, and completely disliked other aspects), but one thing is for sure, i.e. soldiers in any military, especially at the lower ranks, do quite a bit of work. In Pakistan they get very little pay for there work, in comparison to their civilian counterparts.

RoohiAD # 178

He won´t leave just by your wishing him to leave. Some other general will eliminate him in due course.

Army has a very very dangerous politics of it´s own. Lethal in fact. Guess who shot Zana-ul-Haq´s butt out of the sky ?

[.. your kins will not find your remains if you dealy your departure ..]

Yeah, Zana-ul-Haq´s jawbone is buried too in the Faisal Mosque grounds. That´s all they could find.

SamerJB # 530, bahmad # 531

[I agree with cutting defense spending but that alone will not make a dent in the 32 billion dollar debt.]

[....fiscal prudence including a cut in the defence budget by Rs 7 billion.]

When asked as to from which heads of military budget the saving of Rs. 7 billion

would come from ? The spokesman of Inter Services Pubölic Relations (ISPR) Brig Rashid Qureshi said it would come from ``non-operational`` heads, for example he said the army-men will not draw their TA/DA (Travelling allowance/Daily allowance) while on civilian duty although they´re entitled to it.

I´m speechless ! The soldiers will do us a favour for not getting paid twice, and that too for not doing even a single job. In any case, a cut of this amount can simply not come from administrative sources. The figure was just grabbed out of the air.

Consequently, in my opinion this matter of Rs. 7 billion defence cut is a lie and only for public consumption. The army will not cut a single penny rather they´ll take more. There´s never been an audit of military budget compliance even in civilian rule so it´s unthinkable now.

Musharraf`s Address: Raise for Grade 1-16

Two main objectives of General Musharraf`s recent address, according to Professor R. Rashid (an economist and a supporter of the address), were poverty alleviation and self-reliance. Where Musharraf announced several taxes which would significantly increase the prices of various goods and services, he announced a minuscule raise of Rs 100 per month for most government employees (grades 1-16). What difference will this raise make to alleviate poverty of the government employees? It would perhaps allow an average family to eat meat once a month (provided all other things remain the same). The following letter also questions the intelligence of the new regime.

Sincerely, Bilal Ahmad

Dawn Internet Edition

December 22, 1999; Letter to the Editor

Rs 100 raise

I was really amazed and shocked to hear about the Rs100 increase for government employees in the Chief Executive`s recent address to the nation. It seems as if the CE is not living in Pakistan otherwise he would have known that such a pittance cannot compensate for the skyrocketing price hikes and the increase in utility bills, etc.

ILYAS JABBAR

Karachi

Pakistan is currently in a Constitutional, ``damned if you do, damned if you don`t`` situation. On one side is an unelected military dictator, who has openly violated the constitution. On the other side, is an elected civilian dictator, who after getting elected, established his dictatorship by blocking all legal methods (judiciary, accountability etc.) of getting rid of him. The civilian dictator was also massively corrupt on a personal level, and blatantly incompetent as a statesman (if anyone still believes that NS was not extremely corrupt, then I have a used car that I would like to sell them). The military dictator has yet to prove his competence or incompetence.

Instead of looking for, and discussing ideal political scenarios (which will not occur in Pakistan for decades, if ever), we need to concentrate on realities. We need to figure out which amongst the two above-described figures/forms of govts. is better for Pakistan, right now. We also need to realize that certain issues are mutually exclusive. If NS was incompotent, that does not necessarily mean that Musharraf will be competent. If Musharraf proves to be incompetent, that does not mean that NS should not have been kicked out for his personal corruption, which is becoming more and more legendary by each passing day. If Musharraf turns out to be a huge success, that does not necessarily mean that each coming general, after him, will prove to be a big success, as well, etc. etc.

Is an honest general better than a dishonest politician? Is there a practical realistic third option (there are plenty of unrealistic and idealistic third options. But in my opinion, it is useless to discuss those)? Was there any way of prosecuting NS for his corruption, without getting the military involved, keeping in mind that his Ehtesab Chief had not allowed a single corruption case against Nawaz to proceed to the Supreme Court? What would have happened, if NS had been able to manipulate the next elections, since he controlled every civilian institution of Pakistan, in a dictatorial manner? Should an army intervene, if a PM attempts to divide it into two parts, by completely eliminting its high command, and by appointing his personal freind as the COAS?

NOT NEWS IN PAKISTAN

A dip in the learning curve



They have survived militancy only to fall victim to government apathy. Living in pathetic conditions in displaced person camps, with little support from the State education system, the students of the Kashmiri Pandit community look forward to a bleak future.

The Pandits, traditionally the learned people of the Valley, were the first casualties of the militancy that began 10 years ago. About 2.5 lakh fled in a massive exodus. While some families moved to other parts of the country, the majority stopped in Jammu in the hope that they would be able to return to their villages one day.

The migration worried the Muslim families in Kashmir because it meant that all the good teachers were leaving. They had to send their wards to Jammmu and even further beyond, if they were to get any education at all. But the Pandits, the very community associated with education, is even worse off than the Muslims today. ``Our children are struggling for an education and we can`t do anything to help them,`` says M.L. Chatha, ateacher.

These internally displaced people are alienated within their own country. A decade after their exodus, they still languish in DP camps. They dislike the word `migrant` and insist on being referred to as internally displaced people.

``We have started to hate this term,`` says Kundan Kashmiri, a resident of Purkhoo camp. ``It has created problems for us. Our wards, who are studying in camp schools, are categorised as migrants and therefore cannot get admission with the regular students in colleges.``

GET LOST GENERAL MUTTERRAF

Your economic package was a total disappointment, and so was you attempted accountability. It is time for military to leave honourably restoring Nawaz Sharif`s government. Read the writing on the wall, general Mutterraf your kins will not find your remains if you dealy your departure. Leave at once.

Roohi A Ditta

Musharraf`s Speech: Rebuttal of Ayaz Amir?

Professor R. Rashid, an economist, disagrees with Ayaz Amir`s reaction to Musharraf`s speech (see the letter below). It seems that I, and perhaps Ayaz Amir, are too rigid in our ways of thinking such that Professor Rashid`s letter has not convinced me (and perhaps Ayaz Amir) to change my (our) views. Rashid suggests that the ultimate objective of the speech was poverty alleviation and self-reliance. Both objectives are great and worth pursuing. I am not sure how too many taxes, such agricultural income tax, gas tax, General Sales Tax, would alleviate poverty. Could someone help me resolve this riddle?

Sincerely, Bilal Ahmad

Dawn Internet Edition

December 21, 1999; Letter to the Editor

`A speech best left undelivered`

AYAZ Amir`s piece, `A speech best left undelivered` (Dawn, December 17) is negative: full of irate responses. He has reacted to General Pervez Musharraf`s address of December 15 by saying that it was lacking in vision and was full of good intentions without giving the country a sense of direction. I disagree with his perception of the general`s package of reforms. It is only fair to put matters in perspective.

As a concerned citizen, with a background in economics, I find that the general`s diagnosis and prescription for our sick economy makes sense. His strategy for economic revival is focussed on fiscal prudence including a cut in the defence budget by Rs 7 billion. It is planned to achieve self-reliance in agriculture which is the base of our economy by improving land use. For the first time in our history, state and evacuee lands are to be distributed to landless peasants. Agricultural incomes will be taxed. This is a dire need and a departure from the past pattern. All incomes should be taxed and agricultural incomes must be brought into the tax net. Similar measures have been announced to introduce egalitarian policies to help the poor in urban areas.

Credit must be given where it is due. The government is trying to tackle myriad problems bequeathed to it by the profligate predecessors who indulged themselves in plunder with impunity. Now that accountability has been put in place, it is hoped that corruption and mismanagement of public funds will be checked. It is necessary to curb the tendency to amass private fortunes by swindling public funds.

I suggest that Ayaz Amir might like to reread the text of the general`s address. This would help him to change his mind. I believe that it is not possible for the government to make simultaneous advance on all fronts. The best way would be to fix priorities on the basis of first things first.

Let us support the government to tide over the short-term difficulties and wish them success in its endeavours. The ultimate objective is to alleviate poverty and achieve self-reliance: A few steps have already been taken towards these goals. More will follow in the days to come.

PROFESSOR R RASHID

Lahore Cantt

BAHMAD # 518 / ZEEMAX / TEMPORAL /CONCERNED

I am so grateful to all of you for some exceptionally intellegent posts over the weekend about the current crisis and its solutions. I almost fully agree with Zeemax about his opinions regarding feudalism, BB/Zardari corruption, IMF and unsuitability of socialistic welfare state model for Pakistan.

The issues relating to debt and its servicing and revival of the economy are key questions but I see too much undue importance being given to PM`s speech. Ayaz Amir and others are also too focused on it.

[Nawaz Sharif`s follies will then look less imposing than perhaps they do at present`` (Dawn December 17, 1999).

What is wrong with our bureaucracy? Why the people, like myself and Amir, are alienated with it? What Amir means when he says ``aloof and arrogant``? What role Pakistani ruling elite have played in the apparent failure of Pakistan? Why ``[nearly] 56% of the current budget is going towards debt servicing``?]

It is ironic that most the jounalists will rather blame bureaucracy for PM`s percieved shortcomings, keeping him aloof from all the blame and somehow are convinced of his sincerity. On the other hand they put all the blame squarely on NS (for his follies) without mentioning bureaucracy, debt servicing etc. It is NS to be blamed for Karachi/Sindh situation and sectarian violence; it is bureaucracy to be blamed for failure to recover loans from defaulters and cotton export crisis. If PIA loses money during NS regime, he gets the blame; if they lose money now, it will be due to the world-wide rise in the jet fuel prices. Grow up, Journalists.

In the absense of a `real` growth of the economy, the revenue enhancement picture will remain bleak despite rise in the price of gasoline etc. With no money to spend on public services, the motorway model is a viable alternative. Anyway least government intervention is the best way to keep bureaucracy out. At present I do not see any real prospect of getting out of spiralling debt crisis, except a written off by the donors or moratorium on debt payment for a certain period of time till economic recovery. However, a moratorium coupled with the business as usual( bureaucracy and higher spending) will worsen the situation.

I agree with cutting defense spending but that alone will not make a dent in the 32 billion dollar debt.

A question frequently asked is where was this money spent. I think actual money coming to Pakistan may be as little as 15-20 billion dollars or even less. Rest of the loans were used for debt servicing.

Devolution and Provinces

Devolution is process of decentralization that entails transfer of power from the national (center) level to the local and/or regional level. The need for devolution exists due to: (1) the presence of dissatisfied or nonconforming groups within a society (nation-state); (2) the need for an effective governance and delivery of public goods and services according to the needs and wishes of local and regional communities. The following letter by M. Shamim Raza suggests that the issue of devolution is not as simple as some people (including General Musharraf) thinks. A bureaucratic solution of the centralization-decentralization debate may not bring desired results. Devolution is a serious political issue, it needs to be dealt with through a (democratic) political process. Comments welcome.

Sincerely, Bilal Ahmad

Dawn Internet Edition, December 20, 1999

Devolution of power

Devolution of power plainly suggests transfer of power from the centre to the provinces and from the provincial to the local government as actually enshrined in the Constitution (now suspended). Any deviation from this recognised path will damage the equation and make the `cracks` grow bigger.

The SNF executive presided by its chief Mr. Mumtaz Ali Bhutto has been critical of the move of the administration to transfer power to the districts for the benefit of the people in solving their problems locally (Dec 10). The party is clearly suspicious of the mode of transfer from the Centre which has been ignoring the just and long-standing demands of the smaller provinces.

The contention of the SNF is that power should be transferred to the provinces and it is for the province to manage local affairs. The power struggle between the centre and the provinces has been agonising. With the passage of time and myopic attitude of the Centre the distrust has grown so much that neither of the two is prepared to accept the words of another.

It is an irony of fate that 1973 Constitution, though drafted in a hurry and approved unanimously by all the parties in the parliament at that time, did not provide a binding base for our living together. The fault was not with the constitution. It has fully met the demands of provincial autonomy. It is simply unfortunate that we could not evolve a mechanism to transfer those given power to the provinces. This is now the core issue of equation between the federation and its units.

In his address to the nation (17-10-99) the Chief Executive in his 7-point agenda promised to strengthen the Federation and remove inter-provincial disharmony. It would be a great achievement if it is realized early.

Two months have already passed but nothing is visible how this solemn promise will be effected and the confidence of the aggrieved provinces restored to their satisfaction.

Mr. Mumtaz Ali Bhutto has clearly stated in the said executive meeting that the Council of Common Interest (CCI) could be the only platform to speed up this issue in the light of the ground realities and evolve a mechanism to transfer power to the provinces.

The issue is very sensitive and has been agitating the minds of the smaller provinces since long. Having the entire state machinery and a viable think tank at his disposal it is now the golden time for the CE to solve this problem of distrust for good. The idea put forward by Mr. Bhutto also needs sober consideration.

M. SHAMIM RAZA

Karachi

In response to Zeemax (Reply #: 520)

Dear Zeemax:

I don`t know much about Irfan Hussain and Ayaz Amir to even politely resent your comment about them (your reference to ``gutter journalism``). However, being little bit aware of the past political history of Pakistan, I have developed some respect for these two journalists. The job of journalists in Pakistan is not easy. There are people who have sacrificed a lot in a country where it is very easy for some people to become filthy rich (and powerful) in a very short span of time.

Musharraf`s speech is an event, it does not tell us much about the process. We really don`t know what is coming next. I am, however, inclined to believe that the General is currently facing some realities of the political process. It is easy for the army to engage in a coup, it is hard to deliver what is really needed. If you are interested in take, take, take, and take by all means, you cannot simply give. I am somewhat sympathetic with your statement that: ``. . . it´s pointless to criticise the military for their lack of direction in running the country - when they can´t do right what they´re trained to do i.e. to fight and defend the country - then how can they be expected to do right what they have no idea about ?`` Yet I tend to disagree with your comment where you seem to undermine the power of the people (however oppressed they are). If Musharraf has not learned this historical lesson regarding the ultimate power of the people of Pakistan, he is bound to fail.

Sincerely, Bilal Ahmad