Famous Last Words or a Messiah in Khakis?

Sadhna#70

You said get rid of 13th amendment.

How?

2nd if 13th amendment is got rid of unconstitutionally by us. Who can prevent it from happening after next election.

Arugupta you mentioned the election in Azad Kashmir and its manifestation. Does that not happen in India. How many people have been killed in Bihar, what happened to Lallu and his cronies.

What rights are given to Kashmiris, to be killed and raped by security forces.

Get out of euphoria and superiority complex, and start seeing the reality.

gymnosophist #70

Well said.

yj #72:

Thanks. You are entitled to disagree with my comments preceding the reproduction of the article. Though let me hasten to add there was no ‘self-satisfied smugness’ intended or implied.


By no stretch of thinking their behaviour was correct. If anything it was uncalled for, despicable, unproductive, and utterly contemptuous. And childish.

Cumulatively they hold sway over the short and long term fate of one fifth of humanity. They HAVE to talk. The alternative is dastardly, regressive and intolerable.


Have you realised the implications of not talking to each other? Many of our surviving friends and family members there would glow in the dark!

I have a personal preference to read the full reference to the comments here, rather than go all over the net. But I suppose citing a reference to the site can do as well.

regards.

t

PS: Sameer # 73:
Thanks for your interacts on MM’s Lacking Inside board. Enjoying you and Zahra and PM there.

temporal: Thanks for posting, ``Silence of the Hawks`` by Dilip D`Souza. I, for a while confused him with Dinesh D`Souza who is a very conservative writer in US politics. Anyway, let me suggest a different title for this article. How about, ``Two DESIgnated DESIS DESISted the DESIres of the DESIS``.

I believe, not in too distant past, NS and I. K. Gujral were on very good personal terms. It is funny that both Abdus Sattar and Jaswant Singh being Hindi/ Urdu speaking also could have talked about Naushad Ali`s music or Kathak dance or a number of other areas which their parents might have equally enjoyed. Talking about non-controversial topics might have lowered their blood pressures. They could have talked about the social scene in New Delhi where Abdus Sattar has previously served as Pakistani Ambassador.

temporal #69

No, temporal, with all the respect I have for you I can`t stomach the self-satisfied smugness in your comments preceding the article and the reproduction of the article itself. The behaviour of all four individuals was ``correct`` in both senses of this word.

They could have exchanged greetings. No more was advisable. If greetings is what you had in mind then I share your feelings and withdraw my observation above. Otherwise not.

If one feels hurt and doesn`t feel like exchanging greentings then I would call it honesty, a trait lacking in ``rulers`` at all levels, and something I myself have learned only recently. Witness my comment above!

And how could a reader quote or cite a paraphrase of the news item/report? Perhaps all of us should resurrect the habit of giving references. Ras Siddiqui`s review doesn`t give a reference (I got it from a similar review from a New York publication; I just saw a reference (by F_K)to a book by Mukhtar Masood (Marhoom) but no reference to publisher etc. This is more important in case of volumes in Urdu which one can`t find in ``Books in Print``. Salaam

GymMac #67, 68

From the ``Verdict ... .`` board

Ref krashid #: 65

krashid

You say {It is in response to a post where corruption and maladministration was equally rampant in Indian and Pakistan Politics and is no reason to do away with democracy in some form.

Who can know it better than Pakistanis. Where every generation has fought for the struggle for democracy. And has lost one part of Pakistan for the same reason. It is so strong that even parties like Jamat-e-Islami and all other Islamic parties like JUI talk about democracy and restitution of 1973 constitution.}

You lost Bangladesh not because you supported democracy but because vested interests opposed the results of the 1970 elections which would have made Mujibur Rahman Prime Minister of Pakistan. Do you think, given the choice between being Prime Minister of Bangladesh and Prime Minister of all of Pakistan, Mujib would have chosen the former? No way! It was the unbridled ambition of Bhutto, who saw his opportunity to become the Prime Minister slip away for ever, who decided that he would rather rule West Pakistan than deal with democracy. If at that time power had been yielded to East Pakistan, the rule of law would have been strengthened; smaller provinces such as Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan would have gained a sense of fairness in the political process, and Pakistan would have been more cohesive today. It was all sacrificed at the altar of one man`s ambition and the Army went along because they had no other civilian leader to turn to.

You say (It was the subjugation of democratic institutions which people disliked. Like fight of Benazir with Supreme court, Attack on Supreme court by Nawaz Sharif.)

I already mentioned that it is not unknown in India to transfer non-compliant high court justices to remote locations on short notice, thus serving notice to them that they could be ``punished``. When Indira Gandhi was arraigned before a judge after the Janata Dal came to power, there was a screaming mob that made proceedings impossible. Indira Gandhi was never tried for her excesses during the Emergency and came back to power in the next elections two years later.

You say (Subjugation of Parliament and president.)

For the last 33 years, there has been some questions about what are the limits on the powers of the President of India. If a Governor of a state can dissolve the state assembly and declare President`s rule, can the President of India dissolve the central cabinet and declare President`s rule? This is not specifically discussed in the constitution and in 1967 Indira Gandhi was afraid that the Congress Party bosses might put in their candidate Sanjiva Reddy as the President and have him fire her as Prime Minister. She broke up the party by firing her deputy prime minister Morarji Desai, nationalized the banks, and ran Jagjivan Ram (a Dalit) as her candidate for president and won. Since the powers of the President are unclear, even today people are not sure what KR Narayanan, the current President, might do. Hence the unhappiness when last year he refused to sign the declaration of President`s rule in Bihar and over his controversial speech at the dinner in honor of Clinton. Sometimes, politics dictates that you don`t test certain vague powers too much. Thus, the President of India has never fired the prime minister and the parliament has not voted to clarify the President`s powers. Your problem is that the Army pushed President Leghari to fire NS last time and NS did the only thing he could: pass the constitutional amendment to make sure the President doesn`t have the powers to fire the prime minister ever again. If one agrees that the Pakistani (and Indian) constitutions are modelled after the British parliamentary democracy, then the President has no right to fire the Prime Minister just as Queen Elizabeth has no right to fire Tony Blair.

You say (last but not least, keeping two biggest parties out of Sind province to form its Government and when failed imposition of Governors rule.)

Lasy year and just last month in Bihar. And probably once if not twice in the history of every state in India. Nothing new here.

You say (Also due to size of India and number of states, a problem in one or two states is still a very small part of country. While in Pakistan a provincial problem means that a significant part of country is in trouble.}

Not really. You guys just anticipate trouble and impose martial law. You need to give people the reason to want to work out the problem. So long as the army keeps popping out of the barracks, there is no need for compromise among politicians.

You say {The situation can be compared to imposition of emergency by Indira Gandhi (although it was nothing compared to actions of Nawaz Sharif)}

Try telling those to people who were jailed, tortured (such as George Fernandes whose family was tortured to find out where he was hiding)and/or killed. Or those forcibly sterilized.

You say {in India there was a system of redress like vote of no confidence}

Couldn`t vote out Nehru, could we?

You say {or voting out of power by President or electorate etc.}

So who prevents the Pakistani people from voting out NS or BB? The Army! (You don`t get a prize for guessing this answer!)

You can always rationalize what is happening in Pakistan. But the fact is it has all happened in every country with a democracy and you have to look no further than India to see it happening even now. But you have to keep the faith that things will turn out okay. You can`t keep opening the oven door to see how the souffle is coming: that only guarantees that the souffle will collapse.

When responsible adults behave like haughty children their lack of effort reflects upon the miseries of millions. Here at the Chowk some of us can sift through shouting matches and name calling and can at least hear, and possibly talk with the other.

______________________________________________

Dilip D`Souza


Silence of the Hawks


The sheer childishness of it all is a wonder to me. Two grown men -- they know each other and have undoubtedly spoken numerous times -- find themselves on the same long flight, sitting a few feet apart. Both know the other is there. But they don`t exchange a word, even pretend not to have noticed each other. This happens not once, but twice in the space of a few days, the second time with another pair of grown men on another long flight.

Now these are more than just your everyday men; they are senior leaders in their respective countries. Yet their behaviour must cause onlookers to ask: Are these adults or overgrown children? Ministers or playground runabouts? Statesmen or half-men?

The first pair was Jaswant Singh and Abdul Sattar, foreign ministers of India and Pakistan respectively. Heading for the recent meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement, they took the same flight last Saturday from Miami to Cartagena, Colombia. Sattar was already seated in the plane as it waited at the gate in Miami. Singh arrived late and hurried on board. Reports tell us that he ``studiously`` avoided eye contact with his Pakistani counterpart as he made his way down the aisle to his seat three rows behind. For the several hours to Cartagena, they sat just like that. ``The deep freeze in Indo-Pak ties,`` PTI reported, ``was evident`` on that flight.

The second pair was General Perveiz Musharraf and India`s Human Resources Development Minister, Murli Manohar Joshi. They took the same flight to Havana for a meeting of 77 developing countries. Joshi followed the example Singh had set. Edged his way past the general. Sat in silence the rest of the trip. Was whisked away on arrival in Havana, separately from the general.

Here`s the fruit of hostility between India and Pakistan: Childish pettiness from our most senior leaders.

Now I met several Pakistanis last week. Some of them, I had met before. Curiously, we didn`t turn up our noses at each other. We didn`t look ``studiously`` past each other. We didn`t maintain haughty silences. No, we sat down, chugged a beer or two together, talked. I say this with no particular desire to show off. Nor do I feel ashamed of our familiarity. It just happened that way, is all. We behaved just as anyone -- you and I, for example -- might at a gathering. Some small talk, some gossip, some arguments, even heated ones. Normal stuff from normal people.

But apparently when you get to be a minister in our part of the world, you can`t be normal any more. You have to play-act a kiddie way through life.

I can see it already. Here in an India Today article by Swapan Dasgupta I`m looking at, for example. Those Pakistanis I mentioned, and those of us who met them, are all soft, goody-goody ``leftists`` and ``peaceniks``, thus to be dismissed. We ``bleeding-hearts`` are entirely out of touch with reality. Meanwhile, it`s the ``hawks`` who have a monopoly on a true understanding of the realpolitik of Indo-Pak relations. Peace between our countries will come not from the naivete of the ``peaceniks``, but via the hard-nosed realism of the ``hawks.``

All very well. Except when hawks play their games on international flights, you have to wonder who`s truly out of touch with reality. Us, doing what comes naturally? Or the hawks, with their silly playschool play-acting? When 60-year-old men behave like five-year-olds, are they being hard-nosed?

Of course, Jaswant Singh went on to win India a ``major diplomatic triumph`` in Cartagena. He persuaded NAM that military-ruled states should be debarred from membership. Though a final decision will be taken only next year, Singh made the case that NAM should take a ``principled stand`` against ``countries which subverted democratic principles.`` (Apart from anything else, let`s remember that this is the same NAM that once had Castro`s Cuba as its chair. That watched Cuba try to introduce a resolution saying the Soviet Union was the ``natural ally`` of the NAM. In NAM-space, principles mean little).

He spoke easily of a ``principled stand``, but Master Singh really only wanted to make digs at Pakistan. That phrase he used, ``countries which subverted democratic principles,`` is mere code for ``Pakistan``. As Seema Guha points out in the Times of India, ``The purpose of the entire exercise was not so much respect for democracy as to nail ... Musharraf. If democracy was the hallmark, India could have been just as cool towards its eastern neighbour, Myanmar. Yet New Delhi, in its eagerness to woo the military junta in Myanmar, has steadily ignored the cause of the democratic movement [there].``

Or, the only reason Master J Singh went to this NAM meeting was to find ways to embarrass Pakistan. These days, it seems that`s the only reason any of our Ministers go to any international meeting. But oddly enough, Master Singh was in excellent company as he went about his embarrassing endeavours. Master A Sattar was busy finding ways to embarrass India, chiefly by what, in Indian circles, is always described as ``raking up the Kashmir issue.``

They did not care to speak to each other, these two overgrown kids, but they worked overtime trying to score brownie points off each other. More delicious fruit of the hostility between India and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, we leftist bleeding-heart Indian and Pakistani peaceniks spent most of a day together in Mumbai. Three memories from that day, if I may.

One: We had a small squad of policemen with us, to ward off any hawk-inspired hostility. One cop stood with our one-woman reception committee near the immigration counter at the airport, watching the Pakistanis emerge. ``Arre,`` he whispered to her wonderingly, ``these fellows look just like us!``

It should be no surprise, but the tragedy is that it is -- that people from across the border do look just like us. What the cop said is certainly a cliche, but it bears being repeated. Over and over, if it helps break down stupidity.

Two: When we rounded up everybody after lunch to head for Juhu Beach, two of the Pakistanis were missing. Consternation for a while. Then we remembered the five Mumbai constables sitting outside. A couple of hours earlier, the missing pair had been seen talking to them. Now, we rushed out to check.

The two were still there, chatting with the havaldars like old chums. Smiles and handshakes as they reluctantly parted company.

Three: At Juhu Beach, the Pakistanis traipsed off in all directions. Some took rides, some munched coconuts and corn, some ran down to the water`s edge to wade in the waves. Within seconds, not one was visible among the crowd on the beach. Until I saw three, some distance away. They were surrounded by several unknown locals and the whole group was caught up in an animated discussion. My heart skipped a beat. After all, in the climate our hard-nosed hawks and sawdust supremos have built up, especially in Mumbai, who knows what might happen to a few Pakistanis left to themselves on a crowded beach?

I needn`t have worried. Suddenly, they were all exchanging hugs. Try that on for size, you silly little hawks.

Ref macgupta #67:

Azad Kashmir only part of what in India is called PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). The other area, called Northern Areas, actually went up to the Pak Supreme Court last year to demand political rights and the Pak Supreme Court affirmed that they should be given political rights. Northern Areas has been treated all along like enemy territory as far as political freedom for people were concerned.

A fact conveniently ignored by the plainsmen from Punjab.

In reply to ( Reply #: 62) krashid, who writes,

Azad Kashmir itself has its own Government, ruled by their own president and prime minister. The problem is Indian held Kashmir, where every election is manipulated by Indians.

End quote.

Yes, the Congress(Indira) and a Kashmiri party (the National Conference) have manipulated elections in Kashmir.

You might find the following also interesting. In 1991, before the World Wide Web, a Usenet newgroup, misc.news.southasia (or something close) used to be a source of news, that relied on contributors. There was a moderator, an Indian lady, and in one of those typical Indian-Pakistani net fights over the nature of moderation, Pakistani contributors boycotted the site. So, for a month or so, because I had access to a print version of Dawn, I used to collate news as reported there, presumably reflecting a Pakistani point-of-view. I still have some files, I`m posting excerpts below.

The context is recently held elections in ``Azad`` Kashmir, where Qayyum displaced PM Rathore. The rest should become clear fast enough.

Newsitems from July 1991 :

KASHMIRI WOMEN WANT RATHORE`S RELEASE

(Dawn Correspondent) Rawalpindi, July 12

A procession of Kashmiri women led by Rathore`s wife made this demand.

QAYYUM DENIES RIGGING, OFFERS RECONTEST

Islamabad, July 12

He said that he would renew his offer of re-election at any seat the Opposition might deem fit. He also said that ` the Indians were pre-occupied with their internal affairs` or else they would try not to allow the Muslim Conference Ministry to take office.

LHC ORDERS RATHORE`S APPEARANCE

(Staff Correspondent) Rawalpindi, July 14

The Rawalpindi bench of the Lahore High Court directed the Federal Govt. to produce arrested AJK PM Rathore before it on July 21.

RALLY URGES RELEASE OF RATHORE

(Dawn Correspondent) Mirpur (AJK), July 14

Processions protesting the arrest of Rathore were held by supporters of the AK PPP, and by members of the People`s Student Federation and the National Student Federation.

AJK PP TO PROTEST AGAINST `RIGGING`

Islamabad, July 14

AJK PP workers will hold a peaceful protest demonstration outside the AJK Assembly building in Muzaffarabad when the new assembly meets, to mark their resentment over the alleged rigging of the recent elections.

PULLOUT OF PUNJAB, NWFP POLICE FROM AJK URGED

(PPI) Islamabad, July 14

The acting President of the AJK PP, Mohammad Hussain, made this demand. According to him, it was a drain of Rs. 2 million per day on the state

exchequer. He accused the Frontier Constabulary of selling illicit weapons and narcotics in AJK.

PP AJK FORMS BODY TO SEEK SUPPORT OF OTHER PARTIES

(PPI) Islamabad, July 15

The purpose of the body is to build pressure for holding of fresh polls in AJK.

IJAZ GREETS SIKANDAR HAYAT, SARDAR QAYYUM

(APP) Islamabad, July 15

Fed. Minister for Labor,Manpower and overseas Pakistanis, Ijaz-ul-Haq congratulated Hayat and Qayyum on their nomination as Pres. and PM of AJK.

AJK TO HAVE EXEMPLARY ISLAMIC SYSTEM: QAYYUM

(APP) Muzaffarabad, July 16

Qayyum recounted his historic actions of declaring Qadianis as non-Muslims, introducing Islamic justice system, and enforcement of Hadood and Qisas Act during his stint as chief executive of AJK from 1970-74, as he outlined his plans for AJK in an interview with APP.

LAW OF TORT FOR AJK SOON, SAYS QAYYUM

(APP) Muzaffarabad, July 16

This will help those seeking damages and compensation from the govt. officials

or other influential people. ` This system ensures compensation to the aggrieved party in one sitting.`

OFFICIALS OF AJK WARNED

(APP) Muzaffarabad, July 16

Qayyum warned them not to indulge in red-tapism or financial bungling.

ARRANGEMENTS FINALISED

(APP) Muzaffarabad, July 16

These arrangements are for holding a public meeting on Accession to Pakistan Day, which falls on Friday, July 19.

NEW AJK ASSEMBLY OPPOSED

(Dawn Correspondent) Mirpur (AJK) July 16

A protest rally was held at S.S. Stadium here, the first held by the JK Jamhoori Ittehad against the alleged rigging in the recent AJK elections.

RATHORE SAYS HE IS STILL PM

(Bureau Report) Islamabad, July 17

Talking to Dawn after his release at 10:00 PM, Rathore said that he considered himself to be AJK PM as the Pak. Govt. action was illegal.

* * * * * * *

This is all that I have; somehow these files escaped deletion, and remain in a tar archive. I remember that quite a lot of action ensued with Rathore.

The point of it all is that the independence of ``Azad`` Kashmir is not real. Its own prime minister and president is dictated from Islamabad. Then there is what happened to Shias in other parts of Pakistan-held Kashmir (remember, Azad Kashmir is only a fraction of what Pakistan holds of the pre-1947 state of J&K).

The thinking & knowing Indian, while being unhappy and ashamed at the violence against civilians in Kashmir, the rigging of elections, etc. will nevertheless not accept that Pakistan has done any better with Azad Kashmir and the rest of the areas that comprise Pakistan-held Kashmir.

-arun gupta

krashid #65

The problem with considering politicians like NS as the sole problem is that getting rid of NS is a short term solution which will yield only short term results. For example, if there is so much unanimity about NS and the 13th Amendments` ill effects, why not keep showing unanimity and get rid of the 13th Amendment or at least water it down ?

Future generations of Pakistanis will also benefit long after NS/PM`s lifetimes.

THATS is Pakistan`s interest, not just snatching the baton from NS and giving it to the next person in line. The intellectuals and public can at the very least expend some thought about those important things which their leaders donot take the trouble to do, whether in India, Pakistan or even the US or Iran.

Sadhana

It is in response to a post where corruption and maladministration was equally rampant in Indian and Pakistan Politics and is no reason to do away with democracy in some form.

Who can know it better than Pakistanis. Where every generation has fought for the struggle for democracy. And has lost one part of Pakistan for the same reason. It is so strong that even parties like Jamat-e-Islami and all other Islamic parties like JUI talk about democracy and restitution of 1973 constitution.

Then what was the reason that Elimination of Nawaz Sharif and company was so wholeheartedly accepted the people of Pakistan.

Nawaz Sharif was corrupt from beginning, and it was commonly assumed that most of our leaders are corrupt. And there were jokes about nothing behind the skull of Nawaz Sharif. But even then when Nawaz Sharif was sacked first time, people did not react favorably. Nor was the first sacking of Benazir very favorable with people.

It was the subjugation of democratic institutions which people disliked. Like fight of Benazir with Supreme court, Attack on Supreme court by Nawaz Sharif. Subjugation of Press by Nawaz Sharif, Subjugation of Parliament and president.And last but not least, keeping two biggest parties out of Sind province to form its Government and when failed imposition of Governors rule.

Also due to size of India and number of states, a problem in one or two states is still a very small part of country. While in Pakistan a provincial problem means that a significant part of country is in trouble.

The situation can be compared to imposition of emergency by Indira Gandhi (although it was nothing compared to actions of Nawaz Sharif), which lead to her ouster at the hands of Murar Ji Desai apart from other reasons. But in India there was a system of redress like vote of no confidence, or voting out of power by President or electorate etc.

In Pakistan, there was no such choice available. With 13th amendment, voting against Nawaz Sharif would automatically lead to that members cancellation of Assembly seat even if he has 49% of members behind him. (And nobody wants to lose seat for some higher ideal, lower ideal of pocketing money is more dear). Judiciary could not do anything. President was a good neighbour. And army after Zia had a policy of continuation of democratic process. (that is why Army Generals were retired or sacked/resigned on the altar of democracy repeatedly). Nawaz Sharif invited the army itself and people welcomed the sacking of dictator.

Still although the people are tired of recent democratic exercise want some form of democracy. And that is also the reason of rhetoric of Pervez Musharraf.

The rhetoric of democracy at local level very appealing to common man is to appease the people. It is not a ploy to appease the international community. Otherwise the Turkish model can be easily applied where army set the rules.

Last year, when NS was still in power, a delegation from India headed by the Deputy Speaker of the Andhra Legislative Assembly visited Pakistan to improve ties at the level of legislators.

Perhaps it is time for Gen Musharraf to visit Hyderabad, Andhra, to meet with Chandrababu Naidu.

The reason I am suggesting this is because of what I read in an interview with the Mayor of Vijayawada.

26-year-old Panchamurthy Anuradha has been recently elected the Mayor of Vijayawada. A graduate in Electronics, she had no connection with politics. It seems Chandrababu Naidu decided that all city-wide elected positions should be filled by college graduates with no prior involvement in politics. Going against the advice of political heavyweights in his own party, he selected candidates for election on this criterion and thus P. Anuradha has become the mayor of Vijayawada.

There is hope that we can get rid of corruption if we give dedicated youngsters a chance to bring fresh thinking to politics and back them up in their efforts to clean up the process.

Aside to Umairr: This same Chandrababu Naidu was quarrelling with his father-in-law NT Rama Rao over leadership of the Telugu Desam Party hardly 10 years back. And you were complaining about how politics is within family hands in Pakistan? You never know what might happen until you give people a chance to do something for the public.

TRIALS OF A PEACE MAKER

The following is from news international,

``Just because PTV is lunatically and fatuously anti-India does not mean to say that all Pakistanis are anti-India, although it would seem that PTV`s aim is to make them so. Fortunately it is so amateurish and crass as to be a joke amongst real people, but it is a fact that the uneducated masses take some of this drivel at face value. It is also a fact that it is government-controlled and thus gives the worst possible impression of Pakistan`s policies.``

The incompetence of the PTV staffers is the only clue that the pak govt may not be completely anti-indian. There may be some takers for this insane view.

cbb#60

Azad Kashmir itself has its own Government, ruled by their own president and prime minister.

The problem is Indian held Kashmir, where every election is manipulated by Indians.

Do you think such a powerful independent movement as in Indian occupied Kashmir where a large Indian army is present to suppress came in one day.

Try to think in empathetic terms, to see the reasons of alienation of people of Indian held Kashmir

crypto #55

There was a Rand Corporation report on US Military Transport requirements. The orientation of the paper was the possible demands on US military transport capability in this century. One section examined the initiation and a possible scenario of a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. Consequently, the consequences were mainly from the humanitarian / peace keeping objective rather than from the objectives of either India or Pakistan. Its about $20 and you can order it from their website. Its quite short, the scenario, 1-2 pages, I could have posted it within this board but for copyright issues.

For what its worth, finding myself with some time at hand, I did try to apply statistical and game theory concepts to this scenario. I am afraid I had to give it up very very soon, because I did not have the resources or the knowledge to really carry the exercise to its logical conclusion. In addition, I found that the decision tree suddenly jumped major orders of magnitude in the possible branches and associated probabilities that it soon became impossible for me to complete it. The joint probability distributions although did come up with some surprising numbers, but that may be because of my assumptions being totally off the scale. Some things which I found interesting was that India would be the more likely to keep on lobbing nukes mainly because the longer / deep chain of command, depth of the country and the converse within Pakistan. Secondly, the climatic and weather patterns make a huge amount of difference. For example, a war in July/August is going to hurt India more than Pakistan due to the fallout /dispersal area and the wind direction. Conversely, its going to hurt Pakistan more if the war is done over the winter months, Dec Jan, due to the countervailing months.

Cheers

bd