Eqbal Ahmad: Post - Pokhran Days

Dr HoodBhoy!

First of all India`s stance on nuclear issue is more in line with reality.

Particularly when America is trying to design, its Anti-missile defense in contravention of its commitment. The world will be an American Colony.

So how can you convince the American Public which has recently refused to approve signing of CTBT.

Second, the Pakistan reaction (and it was reaction) to the defense needs how flimsy it may be. What other choice was there.

Pakistan can definitely take the shield of India on Nuclear issue without any problem. The supposed advantage of economic downpouring of Dollar is a myth. For one excuse or another Pakistan will be bent to become a subject of India. Our future does not lie with identification with America, but alternate solutions for self reliance.

Second, by the time Dr. Eqbal wrote the article already 50000+ Kashmiris were slain. Further bloodshed was just a continuation.

In fact by becoming a nuclear flashpoint, the world has for the first time realized the dangerous situation in Kashmir. And recent overtures by India towards Hurriet Conference etc are a manifestation of this and not a change of heart.

So arguments of Eqbal Ahmed although good on paper have no relevance except as a historical interest.

Interesting account of a life already lived. While subject of the article flees the surely bonds of earth to touch the face of God, we are still down here dreading another day. Another nostalgic article decrying a lone voice in the wilderness and shedding tears for an idea, whose demise has been already announced.

``...and the voice of the angel cried forth, `it is done` and he replied `behold, for I have became death; the destroyer of worlds```- Bhagavat Gita.

Welcome to the nightmare!

Ciao!

Unfortunately criticism of India means that this article will be soundly bashed and eventually turn into another round of Kashmir in general(but then, that`s always expected).

I wish I had paid more attention to Eqbal Ahmeds writings while he was still active - unfortunately it`s only after his passing that I`ve become interested in what he had to say. I was wondering, Prof Hoodhboy, if there is any collection (present or planned) of his writings.

Also, we look forward to hearing of your experiences on the advisory committee for education. Are we due to hear in perpetuity people crowing about the fifth-class syllabus of Pakistan and how it shows we`re a bunch of yahoos?

One would want to believe that sanity and realism does prevail in the leadership on both sides of the border, at least as far as nuclear weapons are concerned. Yet, our leaders often seem to be as frighteningly casual about those weapons as the galleries they may be playing to. It is precisely that across-the-board casualness, which raises specters about the fragility of our sub-continental existence. And since the aftermath of nuclear explosions does not recognize national boundaries, the world worries that we are going to take them down with us. Do these jokers know what they are dealing with, they want to know.

Old stereotypes about the subcontinent and its psyche that were romanticized once by the west, become compelling evidence of the impending disaster, fuelled by our nouveau riche bravado. After all, we are a billion plus, uneducated, and crammed in a small space. We live an existence that is frugal at best, and have rarely shown much sanctity for human suffering. We didn’t know how to feed ourselves. These days we can’t even manage to give ourselves a few sips of water. We believe either in reincarnation, or in eternal happiness in jannat as long as we are willing to die killing a kaafir. Who knows, we might even consider it a good idea to go out in a puff of nuclear smoke. How should the world save itself from such people? There seems to be no sharing of a basic rationality paradigm on which the civilized world could argue with, or convince us.

There was a time when the nuclear haves could safely threaten an intransigent third world country with nuclear retribution for relatively smaller provocations. Be it Korea in McArthur’s time, Khe Sanh during the Tet offensive, or Libya during Moammar Quadaffi’s active days. It did not always have to be through the great power’s leadership. Newspaper or television quotations from the man in the street, or leaks or rumors about formal contingency plans would create the expected tremors around the world, and still provide a politically useful deniability. Actual use was probably never seriously contemplated. Fear did the trick. Scientific prowess, economic might, cool and calculating institutionalized processes that would evaluate situations and scenarios rationally and comprehensively, and fail-safe command and control systems gave them complete credibility. (We must not confuse these situations with Cuba in 1962 or the level three alert during the Yom Kippur war. Those were confrontations between super powers who knew that they shared a basic rationality paradigm, and MAD was their guarantee of a sober conclusion.)

It was a mind game. China’s communist leadership was the first to shake the assumptions behind the mind game. We are not afraid of a nuclear war with you, it said. Even after losing 250 million Chinese, there will remain enough of us to rule the world, they declared. Who was willing to call that bluff? If it was a bluff, that is.

The leaders in the subcontinent may possibly be playing a mind game of their own. Cashing in on stereotypes that would lend them credibility, despite the long gestation periods between testing and deployment, despite lack of adequate economic infrastructure, and despite the lack of a widespread technological capability, management capacity or industrial wherewithal. Nangey se khuda darey, seems to be the motto of our leaders. Pay attention to us and do our bidding if you don’t want us to self-destruct and take you down with us, they seem to say. After all, Roatey bachhey ko maaN doodh pilaatee hai, right?

Let us pray nobody calls our bluff. Poker is not our national game.

Another good,thought provoking and insightful article by Dr.Hoodbhoy..

Re:krashid#1

The history of the subcontinent warrants the need for nuclear weapons. Is there any other place on earth that has been attacked by so many different people ? We have talked about muslim invasions ad nauseum. However, even before that there were constant invasions from the north-west. Even when muslims were ruling Delhi, other muslims from Central Asia would attack and conquer the place. Then who can forget the british ? If this is the pattern for 5000 years, can we say that history will not repeat again in the future ? Who knows, someday the Taliban may become powerful and decide to move south.

Therefore a nuclear shield against external aggressors is not a bad idea. What is bad is that India and Pakistan are itching to use their missiles against each other. This is something that we should work against since we are basically the same people.

There is also a bogus argument about economic growth. Historically the subcontinent had always focussed on economic growth at the cost of military strength. We were known as the ``sone ki chidiya``. All it ever did was to catch the attention of someone or the other sitting on a barren piece of land somewhere in Central Asia. These people would collect an army and attack us, get a military cakewalk and end up devastating our civilization as well as economy. This pattern kept repeating itself again and again. Even the british were attracted to India for economic reasons since India was the richest country in the world. They exploited and ruined us to such an extent that in 1947 we were just a bunch of beggars fighting over religion. Well it will not happen ever again !! This time we will have military and economic strength. The right balance has to be figured out by both India and Pakistan.

In response to Amit (Reply # 7)

Dear Amit:

Your statement: “The right balance has to be figured out by both India and Pakistan.”

Comment: A war is a product of an imbalance. Preparedness for any war (or its purported avoidance) has never lead to an ideally desired balance. Wars could only be avoided by developing an enhanced sense of humanity, justice, and peaceful coexistence.

The United States is the only country in the world which has ever used a nuclear device. Has the US ever maintained a sense of balance between the humanistic need to maintain peace and the anti-humanistic desire to crush the enemy? Is there any sense of balance that the history of the so-called Cold War provide us?

Sincerely, Bilal Ahmad

I believe Mr. Eqbal Ahmad was a very close relative of Dr. Hoodbhoy?

Anyone who believes Pakistan could survive, let

alone thrive, with a nuclear India alongside it,

lives in la-la land.

The superpowers are rightly condemning Pakistan

and India for crashing their Nuclear membership.

With every new addition, their power diminishes.

China is begrudgingly courted by the west, only

because it has ICBM missiles, a dozen of which

are now pointed towards the USA. On merit, China

does not deserve to be in the security counsel,

but for its Nuclear arsenal.

The peaceniks like Hoodbhouy and Eqbal, are modern

day Chamberlain`s of the Sub-Continent. They are

perfectly happy to come back from a tour of India

with a note pinned to their collar from Vajpayee,

of the kind Richard pulled out of his pocket in

1939...a few days later Poland fell to Hitler.

These academics look pretty in their classrooms,

talking about Utopia to their hearts delight. They

are a danger to people around them, when they

venture out of a campus and start preaching to

the masses about peace, when the other side is

preparing for war.

God forbid, if someone would take these chaps

seriously.

Thakur

Re # 18, Sheesh Naag

Naag means a snake. You Brahmins have confused and infected the Indian mind with snake stories,snake worship, snake feeding and incorporated everything snake in Indian culture from angels to temples to pictures to cinema and dance. You guys are really snakes. Nageshwara, Nagamuni,Nagachari, Nagendra, Nagpur, Nagbhushan, Nagarjunsagar, Bhatnagar, Nagpunchami to mention just the few. AND YOU as ``SHEESH NAG`` means head of a snake. People like you need to be defanged. What India needs is freedom from Brahmin cult, education, escape from ritualism and nonesense stories by created by you snake kind. So stop posting stories of Gangotri and birth of religion from Himalayas and long hair ``Jata`` of Shankar with a snake around his head. This is the reason why millions of Hindus embraced Islam and Christianity because moder day individuals are not convinced with this Brahminical mythology. India is educated and getting there without further messing by the Brahmins. NO MORE NAAGCHARMERS-snake charmers like you. Stop glorifying a degenerate culture.

Re: Dr Hoodbhoy

The BJP, as ignorant as their counterparts in Pakistan, ie, the Islamic zealots who want to live in the 7th century--maybe they should move to Saudi Arabia--, had Pakistan cornered by exploding the bomb.

The BJP had calculated it well: If Pakistan does not respond in kind, India will be accepted in the ``elite`` and ``prestigious`` nuclear club pushed-in (with the help of Vaseline, I suppose) by its lover the ``Great`` Britain thus making it easier to secure the coveted permanent security council seat at the UN, will threaten Pakistan constantly with an upper hand, and, as the dweedle dee and dweedle dum duo, Advani and Fernandez started blurting out, will take ``Azad`` Kashmir; if Pakistan does respond in kind, then the economic cost of it will sure ruin Pakistan.

For India, it was a brilliant strategy. India`s explosion became the proverbial rat in Pakistan`s throat: it could neither swallow it nor throw it up.

Pakistan had no choice.

Has sanity taken a vaction from Chowk?

Some of these replies are quite virulent and play the usual Pakistan = Islam; India = Hindu argument. But I would like some of you guys to have a look at the rather unsettling venom being splashed about on the Chowk Forum.

Rafay

Ref Godot #: 13

You said {If Pakistan does not respond in kind, India will be accepted in the ``elite`` and ``prestigious`` nuclear club pushed-in (with the help of Vaseline, I suppose) by its lover the ``Great`` Britain thus making it easier to secure the coveted permanent security}

You have your facts wrong. China, UK and Russia were the three countries that pushed for the ``Entry into Force`` clause of the CTBT that says that the CTBT comes into effect only after India, Pakistan, and Israel sign it.

Now, go back to reading up on the CTBT and the NPT.

I will always remain a great admirer of Dr.
Eqbal Ahmad, the man, his works and his ideals.
And what Dr. Hoodbhoy has written also has a
great deal of merit.
But in the case of Pakistan`s reply to Pokhran
via Chagai, I now find that Dr. Eqbal Ahmad,
the humanitarian, was mistaken.
Some strategic moves are just not popular but become necessary. One needs to be more critical
of India than than Pakistan regard for starting this mess.
And now, after the fact, we can look back and be
less emotional and more calculating. In either
case India would have come out ahead.
Since Pakistan has tested and that ``need to
prove something`` is now passed, it would be much
better for us to figure out the best way to
proceed from here. The tests happened, but where
do both India and Pakistan go from here?
One can only dream that it will be to the negotiating table over Kashmir. One can dream ...

Ras

Re: Some of these posts

I have from reliable sources--people I usually trust to know what they are talking about--that the Pakistani Army`s threat assesment was something along these lines. I cannot vouch for all of the details but I think that the gist of it is certainly true.

There was an element in the Indian Army and intelligence apparatus that felt that the Pakistani nuclear weapons research program was still (at least) many months away from being able to actually assemble and explode a nuclear device.

They wanted to launch a premptive attack on the nuclear research program--maybe with Israeli assistance? who knows?--a la Israel on Iraq and destroy it. Maybe also take the opportunity to attack a few mujahideen camps in Azad Kashmir.

The Indian political leadership was less certain about how far behind the Pakistanis were. They demurred on the premptive strike. Hence the Indian test.

The Pakistanis would have no choice but to also test. If their weapons program was several months behind the Indians, then there would be no test. In this case, the Indians could then safely launch a premptive strike. If the Pakistanis would test, well, then the Indians would know exactly where the Pakistani program stood. I assume they calulated (correctly) on being better able to withstand any economic sanctions than could Pakistan.

In any case, if I have the actual Pakistani test timing straight, the Pakistanis did not make immediate plans to test our own bombs. There was even a chance that we might not test. However, there was a buildup of Indian forces on the AK border and that spooked the Pakistanis.

Does any one have any better information than I do on this?

Fuzair

That is the silliest rationalizing argument I ever heard. Pakistan has been capable on N-bomb/explosion since 1990. The only thing thing that was uncertain was how well developed the N-bomb was. India had a 10-15 year head start therefore it is quite know that Indian bombs would be more powerfull than Pak`s. No one ever doubted that Pak ever had the bomb but people did doubt that Pak would be foolish enough to follow India into testing it. Infact India was so mired was its test that Pak`s testing was probably the best thing that could have happened at the time.