The Ongoing IT Revolution and Security Implications for Pakistan

Umairr #75

Your last paragraph:

``Pakistan should detach itself from India, in all aspects except culture and self-defence. I think Pakistan is in a secure position on those two issues. India has far more problems in Kashmir than Pakistan. Even if the status quo is maintained in Kashmir, Pakistan is alright. If India wants to trade with Pakistan, it should be welcomed. However, a pre-requisite should be that India has to stop trying to isolate Pakistan in international economic arenas like SAARC, Commonwealth, relations with USA etc. Apart from that, Pakistan needs to just figure out what suits it economically, politically etc. irrespective of what India does.``

attracted me to respond. I agree with your conclusion.

However, I find your analysis has military deterrent, Kashmir, India wanting to destroy Pakistan as ugly common denominators. Your analysis lacks economic reasons, and new pressures of knowledge economy to overcome the digital divide.

Unfortunately these ugly common denominators lead to emotionalism rather than rationalism among Pakistani strategicians, who then fail to deliver a completely unemotional strategy for Pakistani nation. I believe, Indians may also be emotional about Kashmir, but it is not such a big factor in overall game, and hence its emotional influence is much smaller on India.

I will relate an incidence from seventies, when I was a student in England. I cannot recall the name of the famous Pakistani economist (Mahboob ??) of the time, he had published a famous economic policy paper for emerging economies. Indira Gandhi`s government took this paper and without changing any words, adopted as official Indian policy. This was the same Indira Gandhi who had already exploded a Nuclear device, and had according to many already dismembered Pakistan. My point is she still had the GUTS to adopt as India`s economic policy, a paper from a Pakistani economist. Excellence was the only color in her mind. I cannot say the same for any Pakistani general, President or Prime Minister who was ever able to even welcome Amartaya Sen, now a Nobel Prize winner for development economy. It is all in the mindset.

Pakistan had the so called Nuclear deterrent for a long time. Anyone who mattered in India, Pakistan, C.I.A., KGB etc. knew about it and always factored this ugly common denominator.

On this count I believe both India and Pakistan have implemented not a deterrent, but a dangerous MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) strategy. The ultimate failure of Pakistan in Kargil has proven that nuclear is no deterrent. I would not argue why Pakistan failed, and why India prevailed in Kargil.

Destruction of Pakistan, the other ugly common denominator of your analysis, may have been and still may be a factor in the minds of whom I would call ``hindu terrorists`` on the fringes. I have a theory such people are found in all religion and society. If they`re born in safforn color they would terrorist of one kind, and if they were born in green color then they would be jehadist of another kind, but they certainly would be jehadist. This ugly common denominator never has factored in Indian policy making. It never will be, because policy makers from the left to right spectrum of Indian scene, know that they do not want extreme Islamist fundamentalists to be managed by India. They know a strong and democratic Pakistan can handle them better than India can. These Indian policy makers of all shades would support democratic movements in Pakistan.

The last ugly common denominator of Kashmir is a result of unfinished separation at birth of siamese twins. It is not same as Israel Palistinian problem, and it is not religious either. It is all about ``Insaniyat`` as Vajpayee has said.

I also believe, the international community would respond with extraordinary a force and swiftness against whoever first uses nuclear option, be it India or Pakistan. The response would be so overwhelming that exercising country would not survive as one entity. Indian policy makers know it, and have offered not to exercise first use. Pakistani generals in my view are driven by what I have earlier called emotionalism and have yet to offer the same.

Also, in my view, by going public, both countries have removed element of surprise from the equation. Sometime, I wonder, if CIA was truly surprised when India exploded, or was CIA looking in other direction to force India to come out in the open, knowing Pakistan would follow. Thus both countries could be subject to internation scrutiny, official and diplomatic pressures to deal.

You said: ``The third difference is that India on a per capital basis is not wealthier than Pakistan; unlike the USA/USSR economic comparison.`` This statement is misleading. The per capita borrowing Pakistan has done is very high compared to India, as a result per capita debt service, which should be subtracted from the per capita income is also very high. Thus per capita income net of per capita debt service in Pakistan is questionable at best. You may recall recent news item, IMF refused to accept Pakistan`s financial numbers, and made Pakistan pay $70M (I believe) back. I also question, per capita as a basis of measure of prosperity not only in Pakistan, but India also, because of skewed income distribution.

I suspect there is more uneven concentration of wealth in Pakistan than in India. I say this by looking at numbers of cars sold in India (about 1,000,000) compared to about 41,000 in Pakistan, whereas a comparable number should be about 140,000. The number of engineers Pakistan produces is about 1/10 th compared India.

You said: ``Because of the above, all Pakistan needs to do is to establish enough of a deterrent to be able to defend itself against India.``

I believe Pakistan would be better off negotiating with India to purge ugly common denominators from its calculations for, say fifty years. Even for those Pakistanis who are driven by taking revenge against Hindu India, this is a better option. They only have to remind themselves that Ghauri and Gaznavi attacked India many more times, before conquering it.

Anil Kapuria

Anil@Kapuria.COM

Re: Temporal #80,

We tend to assume that most people are half way normal. That`s why when something anomalous like #77 shows up we tend to find it unbelievable or somebody`s attempt at dark humor.

But in these matters of national or religious supremacy, I have long since abandoned expecting `normal` interactions.

As Chowk gets more popular in the mainstream, you will see more of these frothing gnats hover over our already contentious waters.

Re: #77

As old Zeemax would say, ``Duck you``.

vsn #77 What a petty minded man you are indeed. Thank God all Indians are not like you or Jay.

Umairr:

http://www.rediff.com/broadband/2000/aug/29steve.htm

Break-up of Pakistan poses a greater threat to India`s security. So I dont think India would like Pakistan to collapse.Check out this site what Professor Stephen Cohen has to say.

Urstruly #82

:Get a life, or get a talking frog.

I got a life with no pakis in it. For me

that is a good life.

temporal #80:

:Frankly, my dear, I don`t believe you.

What part dont you believe? That I made millions in my teens?

:And, just hedging my bets, if you are for real than at long last jay would not be so lonely!

who is Jay? I am new to this board. I am sure I will know soon enough.

Ref vsn #: 77

You said {Nowadays if i see a resume with even a mention of pakistan involved i just throw it in garbage and moveon. I rejected a lot of people like that solely because they are pakistani.}

You have updated caste prejudices and practices to suit the modern day.

Clearly, you are a good Hindu. You should get the ``Hindu of the Year`` award from the RSS.

(For those whose mental faculties might be impaired: sarcasm intended.)

vsn #77:

With due respect to your nationalistic sentiments, dont you think you are being unprofessional by outrightly rejecting Pakistani job applicants ?

How will your higher ups (assuming you are not a CEO) react if they were to know about this?

devkant #78:

IITs do deserve the admiration that they get, but there are other good institutes too, which unfortunately do not get acknowledged. But I think the glory of IITs does reflect on other engineering institutes in India too. IITs are just a logo for the Indian engineering success. Their recognition represents the success of all the top engineering institutes in India as well. And there is no disputing the fact that they are at the top of their league.

BTW, i do concur with your sentiments. Long live India and Indian success.

Satyavadi

vsn #77

Get a life, or get a talking frog.

THE MYTH OF PAKISTANI ECONOMY in SHAMBLES

I do not believe that the economy of Pakistan is in shambles. This myth is being created and popularized by establishment and regimes.

In the past, until the end of Afghan War, money was pouring in as financial aid in the country. This aid was generously divided among the Chacha Ji and Mama Ji of our country- it never reached common people. Now that this cash flow has stopped, the same chachay and mamay are sharpening their fangs to dig deep into our throats. They have to satisfy their hunger and thirst somehow. That is the reason people have started feeling the effects of ``bad economy``, first time in 50 years. It is the government who has to cut its flab and control ``haram khori``. It has to curb the ``Haram Khor`` elements among its ranks and control the ``Haram Khori`` of bureaucracy.


They are imposing unjust taxes on a target segment of the society, i.e. businessman. What are they (government) offering in return- better schooling, healthcare? Where is the new Social Contract here? Imposing taxes on a target segment of the society is unjust, un-Islamic, un-democratic, and un-constitutional (whatever the form it is in). What about Agricultural Tax?

It is my appeal to every Pakistani on Chowk, not to buy this crap about economy, from government and journalists on its payroll. Haram Khori is the keyword here. Pakistani economy is robust enough to withstand even complete isolation but it might not survive the parasites.

vsn #77:

Frankly, my dear, I don`t believe you.

And, just hedging my bets, if you are for real than at long last jay would not be so lonely!

---t

Urstruly #71 We need more Pakistanis like you.

Muhajir #65 While it is true that record numbers of Indians and Pakistanis are headed to other lands, this is not necessarily a reflection of deteriorating opportunities in the homelands. I remember a UN study that showed how emigration (i.e. people leaving a country) tends to be low in underdeveloped countries to start with, and to increase once development starts and the concept of improving one`s lot seeps into the peoples` minds. Then there is a snowball affect. After some time it slows down and even reverses a bit(see e.g. the story of the Irish Americans, Korean Americans, and even Chinese Americans).

phew!!!!!!!!don`t we have everybody worked up ?????But i guess this India Pakistan thing never fails .Why does everything have to be us versus them ?If they are better at it then why consider that to be a threat ?Hats off to indians for doing such a great job and actualluy a lot of inexpensive help can be taken from them if the affairs are handled in the right manner . Hence the suggestion that the government should get out of the way doesn`t seem very sensible .India might be becoming more powerful by the day but it is still a very poor country and if they can manage to do so well then that means that there is still hope for us .

why is it that everyone only talks about iit`s. there are other institutes in india which are as good as the iit`s if not better. some names that come to my mind are BITS pilani, REC trichi, KREC, Manipal institute of tech, univ of rourkee, IT BHU, VJTI bombay, UDCT bombay, college of engineering poona, indian school of mines dhanbad, etc etc etc.

just because the success of the iit`ans has been publisied so much doesn`t mean that the other colleges donot churn out quality students. some of the colleges mentioned above are some of the top engineering colleges in india and the alumni of those colleges are doing very well for themselves.

indians are doing well not only in IT, but they r doing well in many other fields worldwide. example...L.N. Mittal, the Ispat group, one of the largest steel producers in the world, Raj Bagri, the president of the LME, N. Shyamlalan, the highest paid script writer in hollywood, jhumpa lahari, ismail merchant, ronu dutta, ...etc etc. these are just a couple of examples of the kind of success that indians have tasted abroad, apart from IT.

like the other fields where indians have been successful, IT is just another field where indians have tasted success. this is what makes me a proud indian, because we people can adapt in any culture and do what it takes to be successful.

LONG LIVE INDIA....AND SUCCESS TO INDIANS.

The author is right that indian dominance of IT is bad for Pakistan.

Let me give my reasons and I am sure lot of indians feel the same way.

I have been working in IT field for the last 10 yrs after finishing

my MS degree in CS from a reputed US university. I have seen a lot of

change in the industry. While we had to prove ourselves in the early

years to stay in a job, we have to disprove ourselves to be fired from

a job nowadays. US Pakistanis could have been better off riding on this

pro-indian atmosphere in IT field except kargil changed a lot of things.

I never thought about pakistan or islam or any religion. I was busy studying

science, math and computing. I was more interested in turing machines

than in God. Then kargil happened and I started reading about pakis, hinduism

and islam etc. Suddenly I got transformed into a nationalist. I used to argue

that borders are man made and we should have just one country in the world.

Now i realize that we have no choice but to maintain strict borders to

preserve our way of life. I am grateful for kargil because it put every indian

on alert from intellectuals to the soldiers, from politicians to the policemen.

Now that i have given enough background, let me come to the point of what has

changed for pakistani in US. I hired lot of people in my career and I still

do. Most of the good IT jobs will involve atleast one interview by a indian.

Nowadays if i see a resume with even a mention of pakistan involved i just throw

it in garbage and moveon. I rejected a lot of people like that solely because

they are pakistani. And I am sure this is happening not only in IT but

in academics, medicine etc. I dont feel bad because ultimately you have to

work with them and i would rather not have indians and pakis together.

It is not very productive to have these groups together. It is either them

or us. It does not matter how brilliant they are if you cant work with them.

And honestly i enjoyed working with pakis before kargil. And i used to

laugh at some of them who used to be very religious and give a % of their

income to mosques or whatever. I thought it was their personal beliefs. Now

the same behavior would irritate me. Now i wonder if that money is being used to

kill some indians and ultimately will end up destroying india as we know it.

That thought keeps haunting me and now I even avoid paki groceries, paki

gas stations and paki restaurants which were my favorites before kargil.

Dont even ask me about paki physicians, i would rather be sick:)!

So basically there is a conscious or subconscious boycott of everything

paki by most indians. And this can only be bad for the hopeful bright

pakis trying to enter IT world. They can not avoid working with Indians

wherever they go and there they wont find any help. Indians on the otherhand

are practically spoon-fed by other indians in the beginning. So the difference

between them would only widen. And it is not even morally repugnant. I just

find i work better with other indians than pakis and thats what matters and

I am even helping my country doing that is a bonus.

So far I just talked about hirings in IT field.

But IT gives the people lot of knowledge about a business and eventually make them powerful in the company. IT is the only profession where they bend over their backs to teach you how their business works internally and eventually IT guys become very powerful if they are half smart.Then you can see how the same boycott would translate to other jobs. So be damn sure that indian domination

of IT field is not good for pakis! I am extrapolating my feelings to a lot

of indians because i am not even religious. So it is not even about islam

and hinduism. It is just about survival. I am sure religious people would find

many more reasons to not cooperate with pakis. It is a tough world to be

a paki, i just wish they stop passing off as indians.