The Ongoing IT Revolution and Security Implications for Pakistan

Mr Ras Siddiqui

You are another person I will like to commend for doing practical stuff for Pakistan ... More power to you!

-Pakistan Zindabad

-Quaid e Azam Zindabad

-Ataturk Zindabad

-Jiye Bhutto

-Imran Khan for PM

Yasser Hamdani

sac #63: ``PTCL is not going to be privatized anytime soon. These things usually happen when everybody else is doing it and there is only a small window of opportunity. We had that 2-3 years back when PTCL was valued at around $11 billion dollars. I doubt if we`ll even get a billion for it now. That is why the government has shelved all plans for it privatization.``

I think PTCL will be privatized soon. As will a lot of other publicly held companies. If it is worth 1 billion now, it will be worth 1/2 a billion in another few years. So better now, than later. In any case, by 2003 PTCL has to be privatized for Pakistan to operate in the international telecommunications area. Pakistan will have to privatize it, whether it wants to or not.

``I also disagree with the view expressed by some Pakistanis(and some Indians) that Pakistan needs to implement its IT plans without regard to India. Didn`t the Soviet Union have a credible nuclear deterrent? Look at them now.``

Comparing the Soviet Union/US cold war to the Pakistan/India cold war is inaccurate. First of all, the reason the USSR split up was because every policy it came up with was in reaction to USA policies. That is exactly what killed USSR. And that is exactly what Pakistan needs to avoid. Had the USSR not done that, and formed their domestic policy and foreign policy, independent of the US, there is a good chance it would still be around. When a country implements reactive policies instead of proactive policies, it ends up playing to the other country`s strength, and in many cases, its own weaknesses. That is a big mistake. Maybe it makes sense for Pakistan to give its textile industry more importance than IT. Or maybe it makes sense to give IT more importance than textile. Whatever the correct answer is, it should be based on what is in the long term interests of Pakistan, and not in reaction to what India does.

Secondly, the USSR was in a big time arms race with USA. They were both trying to dominate parts of the globe. The USSR had a comparable geographic and human resource size to the US. The US had a much bigger and robust economy than the USSR. Eventually, the USSR lost the battle because it could not economically sustain the arms race with the USA. Had it not reacted to everything the US did, the USSR would have been much better off.

Pakistan/India situation is different from the above situation in many regards. There is absolutely no comparison between the two countries in terms of geographic and human resources size. Pakistan is tiny compared to India. The other difference is that Pakistan has no desire of being an Asian regional power. It is not big enough to be one. The third difference is that India on a per capital basis is not wealthier than Pakistan; unlike the USA/USSR economic comparison.

Because of the above, all Pakistan needs to do is to establish enough of a deterrent to be able to defend itself against India. Once that is established, then Pakistan should completely detach itself from India, i.e. it should base its policies on what is in its interest, and not in reaction to what India does. You need to keep in mind that uptil 1990, economically Pakistan was the most progressive and successful country in South Asia. India was a much bigger economic basketcase than Pakistan, with extremely outdated economic policies. So following India is not necessary always a good idea. It is only now that Pakistan is in an economic trough and India is opening up, that the average Indian has reached the same standard of living as the average Pakistani. Which on the whole means that due to its gigantic size, India is much more powerful than Pakistan, and will remain so. Look at the size of the two countries on the map; there is a huge difference. So, there is no point in getting in a contest.

Based on the above, India and Pakistan are two different countries with different economic and foreign policy motivations. Because of this, Pakistan cannot be reactionary. It now has, for the first time in its history, a strong deterrent against Indian military domination, i.e. nuclear weapons. It is impossible for any country to be military hegemonistic towards a nuclear armed country. That is why India did not follow its standard policy of invading Punjab and Sind in reaction to Kargil.

So the military threat from India has finally been neutralized, regardless of what goes on in Kashmir. Ironically, Pakistan`s economy is now at its weakest. So one problem has been solved, but another has emerged. Assuming that Pakistan does not get into the arms race trap that India has set up in South Asia, the economic battle becomes independent of India. Even if India becomes the USA, it cannot militarily harm Pakistan. However, if Pakistan`s economy keeps going down, it will implode, regardless of how successful or unsuccessful India is. Whether India produces one computer scientist or one billion computer scientist is immaterial. Historically, India has never been able to break, harm, or destory Pakistan, despite many attempts. Pakistan has only suffered when its domestic leadership has let it down.

Pakistan should detach itself from India, in all aspects except culture and self-defence. I think Pakistan is in a secure position on those two issues. India has far more problems in Kashmir than Pakistan. Even if the status quo is maintained in Kashmir, Pakistan is alright. If India wants to trade with Pakistan, it should be welcomed. However, a pre-requisite should be that India has to stop trying to isolate Pakistan in international economic arenas like SAARC, Commonwealth, relations with USA etc. Apart from that, Pakistan needs to just figure out what suits it economically, politically etc. irrespective of what India does.

Dear Sac:

Besides being in IT, hearing this word again and again sounds - killing :-) I am reading your article with great interest. I liked the discussion style. I said, `reading`-- yes, I am still reading it. There are quite a few good points, whereas there are quite a few redundant ones. The redundant ones became pertinent, once you stated - the premise.

I strongly feel that you should also get some perspectives from the resident Pakistanis who are in IT. In fact, there should be a sequel to this article with the views from IT Professionals in Pakistan. I would like to refer the following article that was written by a friend from UET, Lahore. He went back after getting his MS from US. This article was also used in assessing the situation of ``IT Industry in Pakistan`` at the May, APSENA IT Conference - Washington DC. You can read the article at the following link.

http://www.iopwe.org/newsletter.html

PS: My detailed critique on your article will follow later.

Regards

ZJ

RE: FerozK #70

Only time will tell what future holds for us. I hope for the best with all my faith, you keep on hoping for the worst.

adaab.

Re: Urstruly # 69

Please do!

Still, what happens after CE/COAS PM leaves...will this policy survive him or the next government will reverse it?

I have feeling that this policy will be just another passing slogan and in three years time everything will be back to normal in Pakistan! Pakistan needs action (hated by our bureaucrats) and not more policies. I applaud the intentions, but will die just like hundreds of policies before it; unwept, uncared and forgotten!

Anyway, the good thing is that the next two months will offer something to hope for and look forward to in the land that hope forget.

Best wishes!

RE: Ferozk #68

I will keep you posted. It is just a matter of two months-as long as we the Pakistanis are incharge of Pakistan.

Re: Urstruly # 57

I will believe it when it happens!

Pakistanis are really excellent at proclaiming but pathetic at performing and implementing their aim into reality!

As long as Pakistanis are incharge of Pakistan, all bets are off!

Ciao!

http://www.thestandard.com/article/display/0,1151,17981,00.html

Bullish on India

gymno #17

You are right in the sense that the current thrill and hype of an `India` brand name is not sufficient to make India a real IT power let alone knowledge power. Right now, those looking for a large % growth on investments feel they have found IT gold mines which have Indians, too working in them. The SouthEast Asia/Russian boom and accompanying hype bore some resemblance. Its up to India and Pakistan to keep their heads and capitalise(no pun intended) the most possible on real and incidental longterm benefits.

``Institutions banned``
Just an anecdote. I remember as an undergrad in a provincial college, we couldnot import just one of a fast ADC for a term project. Basically because of the MTCR/NPT-related international politics, N. Zealand can buy F-16s, but a state college in India cannot have even a single chip.

``IITs reduced to turning out drones``
Another anecdote. Back in the late 80s and early 90s at least the IITs in N. India(and medical colleges in S. India, too) turned out IAS/IPS/IES aspirant drones :-).

``failings``
If you can manage at least 2 trips to India in one year, I wish I were as successful.

``no intention of disclosing my persona to unknowns and shall not respond``
Hmm, remember it works both ways?

Sadhana

re umairr #36:

PTCL is not going to be privatized anytime soon. These things usually happen when everybody else is doing it and there is only a small window of opportunity. We had that 2-3 years back when PTCL was valued at around $11 billion dollars. I doubt if we`ll even get a billion for it now. That is why the government has shelved all plans for it privatization.

I also disagree with the view expressed by some Pakistanis(and some Indians) that Pakistan needs to implement its IT plans without regard to India. Didn`t the Soviet Union have a credible nuclear deterrent? Look at them now. The worst thing we can do right now would be to turn inwards.We are not a Switzerland and we cannot afford the luxury of starting from scratch. There are 2 choices.

Either accept Indian hagemony, stop making a ruckus about Kashmir and console ourselves with victories on the cricket field. This scenario seems more likely than the other one which calls for rather difficult choices. Accept the fact that the only cooperation in the foreseeable future that we`ll have with India would be on the economic front only.Enter into mutually beneficial scenarios involving trade and commerce and a unified market. And maybe in a few decades the two countries would not need to spend the billions they are spending on defence.

And veeresh: At your age maybe all one can think about is getting a new pair of balls....thanks but no thanks :)

later

-sac

Record number of Indians and Pakistanis are leaving India and Pakistan to immigrate to USA, UK, Australia, Japan, South Africa anywhere but the Indian subcontinent. Looks like no one wants to live in India and Pakistan.

http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/aug2000-daily/28-08-2000/oped/o3.htm

Sac #37

``This article was written for a Pakistani newspaper with the intention of stimulating discussion on the topic. India was used as a convenient vehicle to provoke action, hence the ``jingoistic`` tone of the article. ``

Peace! Here is the same olive branch that Sharif extended to Vajpayee in Lahore.

May I suggest sending the article to Frontier Post? They seem to specialize in publishing shoddy, half-baked articles.

You`re welcome.

For those of us discussing what the govt should and shouldn`t do to encourage IT, please read the following article by N R Narayana Murthy. He is head of Infosys Technologies and widely respected in Indian business circles. I thought the article was quite realistic and down-to-earth.

http://www.timesofindia.com/today/26repu4.htm

India`s Silicon Valleys: Problems and prospects

Excerpt:

``What must the Government do to help India`s Software Capitals become Silicon Valleys?

``Most of the start-ups in Silicon Valley are either managed or owned by individuals of Asian descent. A large number of these people are Indians. So, one might ask why this kind of organisation is not visible in India`s Silicon Valleys. I believe that the answer to this question lies in the fact that in mixed and developing economies like India, the Government retains tremendous control over the pace of progress of the country. Unless the government implements certain policies that support our software industry, it is almost impossible for the industry to build a Silicon Valley of international standards.

``There are many initiatives that the Government needs to take up in order to aid the IT industry. These include fostering competition and enhancing the velocity of business, especially business opportunities in the public sector. The Government should also aim to bring transparency to critical decision-making processes and policy formulation. Another goal of the government should be the creation of suitable conditions for increased entrepreneurial activity. Rationalising the duty structure and liberalising rules for Internet, data and voice communication will also aid our country`s software capitals in becoming silicon valleys. The government should also try to provide an impetus to education and facilitate easier asset acquisition and listing on stock exchanges for Indian companies abroad. Finally, it should try to encourage venture capital support and create a regulatory framework that enables Indian companies to become world-class.

``What should we in the IT industry do for our silicon centres?

The awareness of the benefits of Information Technology is low in India, particularly in the Government, the public sector and the small-scale sector. In general, there is great enthusiasm about IT among potential users but they are, often, sceptical of its role in their own establishments. The onus is on us to erase such perceptions and to inspire confidence and trust in our ability to deliver quality products within budgeted cost and time. We need to work on the prices of our products and/or services as well as on providing a global quality of service. We should also try to provide up-to-date products to Indian users as well as focus our operations. All of these courses of action will, naturally, increase our business, and the resulting profits can consequently be utilised in improving our silicon centres.``

taimurmalik:

``YOU people out there can be MOST helpful in building a better Pakistan.There should be networks among expats and locals that help improve IT exports from the country.``

Yes if Pakistani expatriates stop gloating on their own successes and stop engageing in the vilest forms of social inbreeding, you have a point there. If people actually intiate such networks instead of thinking about them or fantasizing. Our sense of patriotism is limited to the Pakistan Day Parades, and waving our flag, and singing the national anthem. When it gets down to the nitty gritty, we scatter like roaches under Raid attack.

Pakistanis are a KHUDGARZ QAUM, selfish self-serving people. We have to change our mentality before dreaming about national growth.

dear sac

``After Kargil, the India of old is no more.``

whatever happened to the old india? i miss it, dammit. if we shall suddenly up and become an efficient, wholesome and forward-looking nation about to embrace success and cleanliness, i shall be most upset.

i would hesitate in laying as great store to this `infotech` as you have, but then i`m an old-fashioned newspaper man.

i point out to you the apparent failure of several `dot.coms` in my city, bombay, including indiainfo.com, run by another famous indian-american, raj koneru, whom you have forgotten to list.

i also point to you laloo yadav, who immortally said: ``yeh IT-YT kya hai?``

regards

aakar patel

Jay # 55

For once, I fully agree with you.