The Ongoing IT Revolution and Security Implications for Pakistan

re umairr:

Dear Umair:

I am picking on you because your posts have brought up some very pertinent points.

Here is why PTCL will not be privatized anytime soon.The Pakistani govt. hired Goldman Sachs in early 98 with the intention of offering a 20% stake for foreign investors. BTW PTCL GDRs(Global Depository Receipts) already are available whereby the Pakistani govt. had divested a 10% stake earlier. Goldman found two very interested buyers and valuation was put at around $7 billion.The Pakistani side insisted it was worth more like $11 billion.60% of PTCL revenues come from the United States(whenever you call someone in Pakistan most of the money goes not to MCI or AT&T but PTCL) a revenue stream in which one of the suitors was very interested in.To put the period in context telecom companies were scrambling to build up muscle globally and developing world telecoms were all the rage because of their monopolistic characteristics. Things changed with the increasing emphasis on wireless assets.Something we see all over the world today. In Pakistan the military took over and they still retained Goldman for advice(which BTW pocketed a cool $20 million for its services). All of a sudden both the suitors were gone.A second tier Asian company was interested but the vlaue it put on the 20% stake was $200 million which meant that PTCL was now worth only a billion dollars.Can you imagine the political fallout if the govt. sold its `crown jewel` for one-tenth of what a democratically elected govt. would have gotten? Even the generals can`t get away with nine billion dollars :)

PTCL has now shifted its emphasis to providing wireless services for which it is spinning off a separate subsidiary.All privatization plans have been shelved for the foreseeable future.

You as well as several other Pakistanis have made much of its nuclear capability.Here is what you are forgetting. In any offensive stance wrt to a potential enemy you have to not only consider the damage you can inflict on the other side but more importantly you have to consider potentially your own casualties.Lets for argument`s sake consider that a conventional war breaks out in Azad Kashmir. The only option Pakistan has it to use its bomb on some major Indian city. Stop and think for a minute. Any Pakistani leader(no matter how rabid) who gives the go-ahead would in in essence be signing Pakistan`t death warrant because of the ensuing overwhelming Indian response.Needless to say both sides will continue to fight a conventional war where once again India has the upper hand(we`ve tried that route 4 times already).To expand on Anil`s post earlier on MAD, one would only use the nuclear trigger if one were assured of completely taking out the other side preemptively. In 1971 all the Indian policy makers and the generals wanted to finish off West Pakistan after the East Pakistan surrender. The only statistic that deterred Indira Gandhi was a number thrown at her as potential Indian casualties per Pakistani city conquered---30,000 Indians.Nuclear weapons will not result in reduction in the defence budget.

You have also argued in your posts about looking at our economic objectives without regard to India. Here is some news for you. Despite the best of efforts of the politicians our economies our inextricably linked. Here is a guaranteed way to make some easy money. Just watch for the devaluation of the Indian rupee and when it happens immediately short the Pakistani rupee. Within one week the Pakistani rupee will be devalued too.This happened in the last month also. Both countries compete for the same products(textiles,carpets,surgical goods etc.) in the global markets.They cannot afford to pursue trade strategies without looking at what the other is doing. Here are some statistics for you.

India needs 170,000 megawatts of power generation capacity by the year 2010. To get an idea of how much that would cost, Enron`s plant in Dhabol which cost $3 billion will produce just 2400 megawatts. India needs $137 billion in the next five years to upgrade its ports and establish new ones along its coastline.In communications it needs $150 to $175 billion to get to the developing world standard of six telephones/100 people(from its current 0.8/100 people). India also needs $35 billion for 14000 kilometers of roads. This money is not available in the public kitty. India will have to tap domestic and global capital markets. This is the chance Pakistan has to seize.If it can become a partner instead of an adversary all the better for both. The gas pipeline from Iran and sale of hydroelectric power are all realistic options.Think about China and its supposedly adversarial relations with Taiwan(which btw seems similar to your comparisons between Pakistan and India). Here is how Taiwan has assured its security. 40% of all foreign investment in China comes not from USA or UK or Japan, it comes from Taiwan. Pakistan needs to cement economic ties with India in the same way. I don`t see any other way of ensuring its security and reaping huge benefits for its people.

later

-sac

Ramesh #96: It is quite sad to see the one-sided attack of Indians on Pakistan after Kargil. How come none of them mention Siachin, which was the predecessor of Kargil. Pakistan moved out of Kargil, but India is still in Siachen, and has been occupying a portion of it against the Simla Agreement, for 16 years. Yes 16 years. There is an active battle going on there, as we speak.

Indians need to be far more balanced in their arguments. It amazes me that Indians base their decisions to buy groceries on their one-sided view of Indo/Pak conflicts. It also amazes me how quickly Indians believe their country`s propoganda machinery. Why doesn`t the Indian media mention Siachen? After all, there is an active hot Indo/Pak battle going on there. Every Indian knows the details of Kargil; why don`t they know about Siachen? If you are going to criticize military actions, then please be even-handed in your criticism. Criticise actions from India`s side also.

From the comments of Indians on this site, it seems like it is alright for India to attack Pakistan, but not vice-versa. Pakistanis are still buying Indian groceries, and attempting to talk to India and Indians, even though Indian forces are still sitting on Siachen. Don`t you think a 16 year long aggression is more costly and destructive than a few month long aggression (which wouldn`t have occurred had India not invaded Siachen).

Pakistan had been offering India a bilateral withdrawl from Siachen for a decade. India kept refusing, because it felt a stalemate was costing Pakistan far more. That was the whole purpose of India occupying Siachen. There is absolutely nothing else there, and it had been quite peaceful before India started a battle there. Pakistan attempted to cut the Indian lines of communications at Kargil.

Look at the whole scenario, and then comment. If Pakistanis started showing the same kind of short-sightedness on Indo/Pak conflicts and became victims of their own media (like most Indians), then I am afraid, India and Pakistan have had it.

Either criticize both military actions (like I do, and many Pakistanis do), or crticize neither; or accept the fact that you are biased.

vsn,

To exclude a person because of his/her nationality is abhorrant. I think you better grow up & leave your petty prejudices at home & not bring it to the office.

I`ll bet someone like you would squeal like a banshee if an American excluded you from a job, based upon the color of your skin & nationality.

ramesh #96, `` I decided not to buy any Pakistani product lest Pakistani govt will use this money to launch another such attack on India.``

Good. More Shan Masalay and cheaper Basmati rice for us! YEAHHHHHHHHH!

(apologies if this reply goes off the topic, or riles up anyone too much)

VSN re:94

(I am yet to see a paki who is critical of his religion or government.)

I`ll assume this was humorous.

VSN re:77

(. It is a tough world to be

a paki, i just wish they stop passing off as indians. )

Ummm.. what? Are you saying that people keep mistaking Pakistanis for Indians, or that `Pakis` try to pass themselves off as Indians? If the former, I`ll try to contain my amazement.. if the latter, then this is the second time I`ve heard this being flogged with great authority, and wonder just where this has happened..!

Anil re:91

(Indira Gandhi`s government took this paper and without changing any words, adopted as official Indian policy. )

Hmmm... did Mahbubul Haque act that effective when he WAS Pakistans finance minister? I`m curious.. did Mrs Gandhi also make it publicly known that she was using a Pakistanis theories for her finance startegy ? Would she have dared?

(I cannot say the same for any Pakistani general, President or Prime Minister who was ever able to even welcome Amartaya Sen, now a Nobel Prize winner for development economy. )

And again.. did she invite Dr Haque over to see his ideas put into practice? I believe Mr (Dr.?) Sen is strong on power being delivered to the people themselves.. which may be the big push for devolution in PK. (`course, i may be totally up the wrong tree about Mr Sen`s theories, so please don`t crucify me too much about my ignorance!).

(Indian policy makers know it, and have offered not to exercise first use. Pakistani generals in my view are driven by what I have earlier called emotionalism and have yet to offer the same. )

Check on NATO`s policy of flexible deterrence. And has India offered the same to China?

Re: Ramesh #96 VSN # 77

Ramesh/VSN,

You guys are pathetic! People like you (on both sides of the border) are responsible for Kargil, Siachin, Kashmir, Golden temple, massacre of Sikhs in Delhi, murders of innocent Christian missionaries, oppression of minorities in both India and Pakistan and many more such problems that currently overwhelm us in the sub-continent.

Umairr, you have been very patient in your responses, but it is increasingly becoming obvious that most Indians on this site have very limited intellectual capability. It is a waste of time trying to get them to understand the bigger picture. Vsn is another example. He has brought his baggage of hatred and discrimination from India to US. And he proudly admits to his illegal, immoral, and unethical practices.
The disturbing aspect of all this is that I don’t see any Indian telling this bloke that what he is doing is unacceptable behaviour. This is in sharp contrast to Pakistanis who, by and large, are more balanced and unbiased in their criticism.

India`s IT boom is a threat to Pakistan !!!!!
By your mentality level what is good for an Indian is a direct threat to a Paki.

Good Lord Shiva what next ?

Who knows maybe IT is a Hindutva conspiracy ?
Don`t you see most of the IT beneficiaries are Hindus ? In fact, maybe they are denying Muslims the right to Computers. Hey it may even be those Brahmins safe guarding all these secrets. Kashmiris are definitely being denied IT education. This is a definite case for Jehad. Islam to, in general, khatre mieN hai hi in this case. Everything in the article is good for phase II of Jehad. Phase I is already under way BOMBING (good old RDX puraani expertise !!). Maybe ISI could target IT companies instead of ....... and build wireless services to detonate bombs in India. Maybe you could have GPS websites letting you pinpoint placements of bombs in India.

Arrrrgghhhh, what the hell is wrong with you ? You are an education gone wrong. Think of the IT boom as an oppurtunity for Pakistan. Where does India come into the picture vis-avis IT in Pakistan and that too in a negative way. The biggest markets are in US, Europe, etc. Open your bloody mind up and try and think bigger and positive. Your negative aura is killing me.
Utth sac sutteya, duniya wekhan jaa, jeh koi milda unhanu baksh de, te tu bhi baksha jaa. Flush your mind.
But I guess this may be a way to explain things to Gurnel Saab Malizada Chief Executive.

Seriously, Pakis the real threat comes from Hindi movies. You guys should seriously think about not watching them. Have you even see how Hindi movies undermine the very existence of Pakistan ? Think about it. Way bigger than IT threat.

What next maybe an article on that ?

regards

For Scout

I was wondering if Scout has suddenly stopped scouting because there was no message posted from your side for a few days in response to this Article. What a relief you are alive! But why have you subdued suddenly? Such nice, polite, humourous messages and no kick below the belt for Indians! Keep smiling and laughing!

vsn #77 :

Boy!, it really takes something to admit such a thing so brazenly in this forum. just wondering how many of your comrade worms we might be having in india itself who`d throw away a resume just because they didn`t like the person`s religion, language, native place or college whatever....

Ramesh,

By the way, the Pakistani Basmati Rice that you did eat before Kargil was used by your body to make various body tissues and proteins, some of them permanent (the neurons of your brain, no kidding).

So Ramesh, whether you like it or not, you are part Pakistani. Digest that thought.

scout

Umairr #75:

[``Maybe it makes sense for Pakistan to give its textile industry more importance than IT. Or maybe it makes sense to give IT more importance than textile. ``]

good to see that someone is even prepared to look outside of IT for a source of development. the mad rush to become coding drones here in india might slowly be creating an ozone hole on the talent pool of other `conventional` areas. with all energy focussed on IT, ther`s hardly any talk of maintaining, let alone improving, the skill base in other fields. the signs are ominous and may be it wont be long before we start to feel the heat there.

Re to Umair

Dear friend

I do not have any hatred for Pakistanis or Muslims in general. Afterall a common Pakistani is also a human like me and ``usne mera kya bigada hai``. If I do not like anything it is Pakistani military, and government. And I will NEVER discriminate on the basis of nationality. If a Pakistani is fit for a job why should he be denied. I was also in his position once. What if someone had done the same with me! But boycotting of Pakistani goods is a voluntary activity because I am afraid this money will be used to train terrorists and later push them across the border to perpetrate heinous crimes in the name of Islam. It is non cooperation by free will

as once adopted by Gandhiji to protest against whatever you think unjust. But the means adopted will be fair. And if I resort to unethical ways like depriving a Pakistani of his well deserved job, it will only defeat my purpose. Regarding Siachin, I think it was nobody`s teritory unlike Kargil and both India and Pakistan attempted to occupy it. Two peaks are still with Pakistan and one is with India. India is holding it despite huge expensesin doin so, since Pakistan can use it to launch offensive against India in conjunction with China. I am not in favor of any bloodshed. Live and let live. Some people on this site have suggested LoC to accept as an international border. A good solution to Kashmir problem if so happens. I am not interested in harming a Pakistani but ISI and Pakistani military rulers.The day peace is established between both the countries and I am assured that Pakistani Govt is not misusing money to train terrorists across the border my boycott will be over. Afterall some other needy fellow across the border might also be benefitting if we buy Pakistani goods.

PS I think Indian press to be more reliable than Pakistani one though not as much as independent press of some other countries since Indian press is free and not controlled by Govt.

I see only one solution.

Pakistan should declare IT to be Islamic Technology and mandatory for every Muslim. (Some countries call this education). It should be taught in Arabic to challenge the dominant Satanic English it now thrives in.

Urstruly Reply #: 81

``THE MYTH OF PAKISTANI ECONOMY in SHAMBLES``

Right. Bankruptcy of the government need not mean bankruptcy of the people.

However, I can only agree with you partially. The govt is a major player in the economy as it is the biggest spender of money. If it has less money to spend, it means less investment in social sectors (education, health, sanitation etc) which impacts people`s lives directly.

If it is a myth that the Pakistani economy is in shambles, it has to be shattered with facts. I dont know the numbers for Pakistan, but you could find out what is the GDP growth today compared to the past, rate of growth of agriculture sector, industrial production, imports/exports, unemployment and other indicators of the economy.

From what I remember of economics, if the govt has no money to spend but does not mend its spending ways, it will mop up the available resources in the economy (through taxes, govt debt, increasing prices etc), thereby reducing resources available for investment and growth of the economy.

Of late, Pakistan has become a net exporter of foreign currency, meaning that it is paying out more (debt repayment) than what it is receiving (debt, foreign investment, non-resident Pakistani repatriation), which surely is a negative indicator of the economy.

On a slightly different note, jobs in one sector have a multiplier effect on the whole economy. For eg, if there are 100 IT jobs done locally within the country, then that would mean more jobs created in housing the 100 guys, their spending on food, clothing, entertainment etc which helps the local economy. If the same 100 guys go and work in the US, apart from the brain drain, all these support jobs and services also are created in the US, not in the local economy. Despite the value of forex sent by these folks to the home country, and their political clout in the US, I would still think the local country would be better served if the jobs were retained locally, assuming such job opportunities exist in the first place.

Zahra (#93)

I am sorry to learn about the demise of Dr. Mahboob ul Haque. I had the honor of listening to his lectures and engaging with him in group discussions in seventies. I was deeply impressed by Dr. Haque and always thought of him to be above politics, and extremely knowledgeable and unassuming.

Assad_K (#103)

Late Dr. Haque himself narrated this Indira Gandhi incidence. As much as I can recall according to him, Indira Gandhi was attacked from both left and right sides in the parliament for adopting his paper without modifications as the economic policy, but she fought such attacks and defended her action and decision. May be someone else at Chowk may knew Dr. Haque more than I did and may have heard more about this incidence from Dr. Haque.

I always understood that Dr. Haque visited India several times. However I cannot vouch for it and neither can I say that Indira Gandhi invited him. I moved onto greener pastures of high technology, Silicon Valley and Harvard Business School a long time ago. Again someone else can tell us more about Dr. Haque`s experience about Indian economy. I somehow recall him to be more concerned about basic economic issues like poverty, literacy etc. as being root causes in South Asia in general, rather than as someone confined to the boundary of a country. This could explain (assuming you are implying that he did not succeed as the finance minister of Pakistan) why he might not have liked politics in that part of the world.

On your point about nuclear deterrent. As I recall, MAD was the successor nuclear doctrine of NATO. SALT II, the last nuclear treaty emerged as a result of MAD doctrine to eliminate reliance on nuclear deterence. Senior Indian policy makers I have opportunity to informally interact on nuclear deterrent against China, know that India cannot build any credible deterrent against China on nulcear basis alone. You`ve to read Fernandes, Vajpayee and Advani together to figure what is really meant. You cannot accept Fernandes on China alone. Also you may be very surprised to discover how quickly China and India are trying to move to solve border problem through bilateral negotiations.

I feel that currently a lot of posturing is going on between Pakistan and India in the press, while Tack II is very active.

On a side issue, Umairr must not get riled up by some Indian jibes at Chowk. From what I have read of his interactions, Umairr is the kind of Pakistani, sensible Indians would want to lead Pakistan, and South Asia. Umairr should rest assured there are many more Indians like him too to complement. Just keep persist on your message.



ANIL KAPURIA

Anil@Kapuria.COM

DEATH OF GENIOUS,

The attack on vsn by the all and sundry prove one thing, none of them had been in a position of financial responsibility. When one has to achieve bottom lone results on projects nebulous definition, the last thing one wants is interpersonal problems among the staff. It is true that through out the world indo-pak relations reached the lowest ebb at the time of kargill. In the US, the indians were visible in their anti pakistani stand. The actions of vsn is something which any one who had been in a responsible positon will understand.

I had been to most of the asian countries on `missions` for international organisations, pakistan is the only coutry I was specifically told not to visit because of the perceived hostility of the pakistanis. When their were visits to several countries, people were specifically told not to let the pakistani counter parts know that they are coming from India. In some cases staff were asked to go to singapore from delhi and take a flight to pakistan. This was more than a decade ago. It is a common practice in international organisations to look into the nationalities to avoid potential conflicts. The seating of the delegates, election of the chairman and other oficials of the meeting etc have strong nationality considerations.

I recognise that in international organisations, positions taken are that of formal government, but considerations of nationality should not be labelled as jingoistic, it could just be prudent management.

The world is increasingly recognising that the emphesis need to be on team work, the genious are long dead. A harmonious team could just be what is needed, not some alleged political correctness. If a pakistani genious is bypassed so be it, there is at least a dynamic team. Oh, pak genious, I like to see that. Then again, who master minded the hijack.