The Winds of Change

Eklavya #55: ``We really need a guy like Brian Coughly (sp?) to do the job.``

I actually emailed him once. He replied immediately :-) Try emailing him at beecluff@aol.com. If Chowk could get him to write and interact on this site on India-Pakistani issues, I would pay to join Chowk.

He actually thinks quite highly of the Indian Army. I have talked to members of the Pakistani military, who actually fought face to face (literally) with Indians, from 1965 to present day conflicts. All of them have stated that Indian soldiers fought very bravely. So I take their word.

The area where the Indian defense system is weak is procurement. From what I have read, there is too much influence of the Indian burecracy in Defense procurement. Due to this, India has a very poor procurement record; from its own Defense R&D projects to the unreliable Russian weaponry. And I assume the Tehelka tapes do not help much (not to say that those things do not go in Pakistan)

Pakistan has actually done very well in procurement. It never got into Defense R&D, realizing early on that South Asian industries could not produce reliable sophisticated weaponry. It also relied on purchusing reliable American and French technology, and upgrading the unreliable Chinese technology.

Romair # 68

Procurement may well be a major source of weakness for the Indian military. Every now and then we hear of another Mirage that went down in some mountain killing another soldier. That truly is a criminal, scandalous state of affairs.

A country that can not buy its soldiers safe airplanes should be just ashamed of itself. I don`t know when Indians will wake up to this continuing tragedy.

dost-mittar # 60

Shukriya bhai saheb.

Woh aayen, aur hum na bulaayen, aisa kaise ho sakta hai? Sacche Lakhnavi ko sacche moti ki pahchaan hoti hai :-)

Romair #50

Quite agree with your analysis with some observations

a) The age & experience of generals on the Indian side subsequent to independence was also on the lower side. However, since there was a larger base to choose from the problem was not so acute. Except for the Indian general Thimaya nobody had even commanded a brigade in battle. Incidentally Thimaya was the officer who took light tanks upto Zoji La pass and routed the PAk Army. Nobody could imagine tanks at that altitude. This secured Ladhak for India.

b)`` the PAF leadership, has been far more careful, and balanced, and thus successful against the much much larger IAF``.

My father was in the IAF. he said that PAF gave a good account only in 1965 operations. In 1965 PAF was qualitatively superior to IAF. The IAF in 1965 was in a flux on account of expansion after the chinese drubbing in 1962. New squadorns were raised after 1962, intake of pilots increased but it takes time to train combat pilots, evolve air warfare tactics / strategies.

c) In 1971 , IAF was superior both quantitatively, qualitatively. The expansion & training has finally matured. PAF after 3-4 days of offense, basically settled into a defensive mode , trying to save its assets. its support to Pak Army & Navy was negligible. IAF had good control of the skies and set ablaze quite a few PAki economic targets prominent being Sui gas and Karachi harbour.

d) In 1999-2001 IAF has much greater acendancy over PAF in all aspects. PAF was in no position to escalate the war by getting involved in air combat with IAF. it moved quite a few F 16`s to the area leaving other parts woefully exposed. The sword arm of PAF is basically 30 odd ageing F-16`s and maybe upgraded Mirage III . This faces 40 odd Mirage 2000 + 80 odd Mig 29`s + 10 odd suhoi30 + 120 odd Mig 23/27 However, i do feel sorry for those who were at the receiveing end of the air bombing. In one of the videos from Mirage 2000 on abombing run you could see people from the camps trying to escape the bombs!!! They were putting their lives for Pakistan and yet were ignored by their own Air Force. What a waste, terrible.

e) it is instructive to read Brian Cougley`s ``History of Pakistan Army`` with a forword by Gen Jehangir Karamat ( i think i remember right). he narrates a incident where Brian was an observer in a PAk Army excercise a few years back. he saw an officer and a few men do some procedure incorrectly. he told the officer that he was doing the procedure incorrectly. The reply of the officer was `Sir, dont worry , Allah is on our side, even if we do the procedure incorrectly, victory is ours``!! which shocked Brian . In fact he mentions growing talibization of Pak Army to which Gen Karamat disagrees in his foreword.

SameerJB: ``Will it be too syupid to deduce, based on a small sample of chowkwallas that militray in Pakistan is more priviledged class than in India-due to disproportionate military spending, Islam, Kashmir, coups and military governments?``

The Indian military has around 2.5 times the personnal as the Pakistan military, yet it has 4.5 times the budget. So the per soldier spending of the Indian military is higher than that of the Pakistan military. Nearly twice as high.

I was never stationed in Jehlum. Just lived their as a civilian kid. Soldiers do have a civilian life, as well. I think the reason people with miltiary backgrounds/families etc. can reminice more about smaller Pakistani towns and villages is because they tend to spend most of their lives there. Civilians, with a good education, tend to gravitate towards the bigger cities like Lahore, Islamabad, Karachi, Peshawar etc. Not too many qualified civilians would agree to make a career in Jehlum. Even fewer would agree to make a career in Shorkot, Pannu Aqil, Mianwali etc. Areas where some of the biggest military stations are situated.

Some of the most beautiful small undiscovered places in Punjab/NWFP that I have seen were on military assignments. There is a station called Sakeser, north of the Sargodha/Mianwali/Bannu road that is the most beautiful place in Punjab that I have ever seen. More beautiful than Murree. It sits on top of a hill overlooking three extremely beautiful lakes, Lake Ucchali (I cannot remember the names of the other two).

There is a point in the Indus river, as it flows out of Attock, after meeting with Kabul, where the river takes an immediate 90 degree turn ( a beautiful site), before going on into Kalabagh. Right on the bank, at the 90 degree point, is a village called Makhad (if I remember correctly). Towards the west of that village are vast plains. Right in the middle of those plains, is a small forest. Within that small forest, invisible from every direction, except the top, is a huge white castle like mansion. Another beautiful site.

I doubt I would have ever had a chance or desire to venture outside the big cities, and into these village areas, had I not been forced to do so through my job. Now I am glad that I did.

Singapore leader Lee sees China as unstoppable

By Arnaud de Borchgrave

THE WASHINGTON TIMES

http://www.washtimes.com/world/20010518-784264896.htm

SINGAPORE -- China is going to become a major player in the world and there is nothing the United States can do to prevent it, Asia´s senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew said. Related

The biggest threats to global stability, said Mr. Lee, will be ``the challenges to the status quo from China and India`` while the ``tinderbox`` is Islamist extremism coupled with ``a Muslim nuclear weapon that will travel.``

Independent Singapore´s Founding Father and a close friend of the United States for the past 40 years, Mr. Lee explained in an interview why China is now the world´s second most powerful nation.

``There is nothing`` Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have done ``that China can´t do better in the years to come,`` Mr. Lee said. ``You cannot stop [the Chinese]. Shanghai is now a city of almost 15 million and still streaming in, as well as into Shenzhen. Its new Silicon Valley is the cream of the crop. ... Take your Ivy League and West Coast universities and multiply by five and then imagine that concentrated in two cities.``

Chinese generals who have talked to U.S. congressmen about the ``inevitability of war`` with the United States sooner or later are reflecting their own military ``mind-set,`` not Chinese policy, he said.

``No Chinese leader can afford to work or plan on the basis of [war with the United States],`` Mr. Lee said, but he made clear that China indeed would go to war if Taiwan opted for a unilateral declaration of independence.

If the United States decided to draw a line across the Taiwan Straits, Mr. Lee said, no East Asian nation believes it can be ``held for very long.``

``It is clear China wants to avoid conflict,`` Mr. Lee stated emphatically, ``and go into the [World Trade Organization]. Given their size, wealth and competence, it is quite logical that they will want a bigger say in how the neighborhood is run.``

``We are gradually moving toward a very different [security] system, in which China becomes the largest player on this side of the Pacific,`` he said. ``Not suddenly, but over two or three decades.``

``The Oracle of the Orient,`` as he has been dubbed, believes that President Bush´s statement that the United States would defend Taiwan by any means necessary encouraged Taiwan to conclude that there was no need to discuss eventual reunification with China.

The United States quickly made clear that it had not changed its ``one-China`` policy.

``China genuinely wants dialogue and negotiations,`` Mr. Lee said, but Taiwan´s governing party stands for independence and concedes only that the ``one-China principle is a subject for discussion.``

Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian, Mr. Lee said, ``does not accept that talks with Beijing should be about how to reunite the mainland and Taiwan, even though the U.S. and all other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and all countries in the U.N., except 20, recognize one China.``

China is actually helping to make Taiwan more competitive by encouraging Taiwanese investments to exploit the mainland´s cheap labor, land and resources,`` he said. ``A more prosperous Taiwan means not just more investments in China, but an even stronger desire among a majority of Taiwanese not to upset the status quo.``

But in the same interview, Mr. Lee conceded that the Taiwanese would opt for independence ``if they could do so [with impunity]. ... For all intents and purposes, they have been independent since the Japanese left in 1945.``

Pluralism in China? Not until the current crop of Western-educated Chinese who are now in their 20s reach political leadership age in their 60s, Mr. Lee said, though the Internet, global TV networks and globalization in general probably will shorten the time frame and bring about some form of ``participatory democracy.``

At first, Mr. Lee believed that Falun Gong was the same phenomenon that had sprung up in rapidly changing societies when people developed a sense of ``rootlessness`` and sought ``eternal truths and spiritual solace.``

A ranking Chinese official told Mr. Lee that Falun Gong threatened stability much the way the Boxer Rebellion did.

``Since that conversation, I must admit I have a big question mark against Falun Gong,`` he said. ``For no rhyme or reason, they started demonstrating in Singapore. ... They caused a public disturbance and we told them to disperse. They refused, so we arrested them. Interestingly enough, most of them were Chinese mainlanders who were working in Singapore. We were then bombarded with e-mails from all over the world. So I do not believe this is simply a deep-breathing, meditating exercise. It´s a heavy breathing political exercise.``

Asked about headlines in Singapore that depict the United States at odds with the rest of the world -- especially with its recent ouster from the U.N. Human Rights Commission and the International Narcotics Control Board -- Mr. Lee said U.S. unilateralism was to blame.

``There´s a growing discomfort at the unilateralism that has been accentuated since the Bush administration came to power. It was already there with [President] Clinton, but Clinton was a master wordsmith and managed to disguise his real intentions. Bush is a straight talker who speaks what´s in his mind. Even when he doesn´t intend to, it still comes out.``

``People feel squatted upon,`` Mr. Lee explained. ``and the message [to the United States] is `enough is enough.´``

The biggest threat to global stability, Mr. Lee concluded, will be the challenges to the status quo from China and India.

After that, ``I would say the [Persian] Gulf, when those regimes change over the next few years, a transition that will be aggravated by the Israeli-Palestinian crisis.

``That is the real tinderbox in the foreseeable future. The Muslim nuclear weapon -- which already exists in Pakistan -- will travel to other Muslim countries in the years to come. Rational people don´t worry me. China is rational, so is India, America and Europe and the rest of the world. But not the Islamist fundamentalist extremists. I am very worried because this fanaticism is growing in Indonesia, which is next door to us.``

Manoj #72: The forward to to the book is by Waheed Kakar.

Brian Cloughley is quite fond of the Pakistan military. He thinks very highly of it. He is also one of my favorite writers on Indo-Pak affairs, since he personally knows most of the people he writes about on either side of the border. And becuase he is neither an Indian nor a Pakistani.

I do not think he uses the word Taliban anywhere in the book. Though I could be wrong. He does remark that the newer officers are not quite at the level they should be at, and one of the many reasons he gives is that some of them are tilting too much towards illogical religious beliefs (there is a big difference between tilting towards religion and Talibanism). I would tend to agree with that. Although the main reason is that the military is no longer the first choice of profession in Pakistan.

``They were putting their lives for Pakistan and yet were ignored by their own Air Force. What a waste, terrible.``

I am not quite sure how much coordination went into the plans of the PAF and the Army before Kargil. I am assuming that, by design, the PAF was not involved, because it was presented as an effort by the freedom fighters only, with no Pakistan involvement.

The kill ratio, in air to air combat, between the PAF and IAF has always been in favor of the PAF, from 65 to 71. In fact the PAF has a higher kill ratio against every Air Force its pilots have gone into combat against. This includes the Israeli Air Force in the Middle East conflict, as well as the Soviet Air Force, during the Afghan conflict. Its main purpose has always been point defence and close air support to the Army and Navy. It is not designed to be a strike force, due to its much smaller numbers, in comparison to the IAF.

The area in which the PAF has the biggest edge over the IAF is flight safety. The PAF (not counting the initial induction of Chinese aircraft) has traditionally had an excellent flight safety record. It had the best flight safety record, per hours flown, on F-16s in the whole world, for quite a while.

In the current scenario, the IAF, with its induction of new aircraft, is now far too big in comparison with the PAF. I don`t think the PAF is going to induct too many new systems, since everything has shifted to a nuclear deterent.

Satyavadi # 57

````I know I am asking for too much, but I am very curious to know what a Pakistani Muslim(?) girl(?) thinks of both my cities.````

You certainly aren`t asking too much. The next few minutes rambling about Ahmedabad are going to be a pleasure:)…my amma is a gujrati hailing from ahmedabad and father a Kutchi from a village in Kutch therefore I am a kutchi and have working knowledge of both the languages… We visit my chachima, khalama, Chotii phupho and Barae nana (all above 70 ) in Sarkhej…there I stay in the old beaten haveli where chachima makes the most incredible daal the very first day which we eat with kaeree ka achaar brought from a vendor who is as old as chachima and has been coming to the haveli for the past 50 years or more she tells me…Ahmedabad has the most incredible pineapples..over here in Karachi they are a delicacy of sorts in the sense that they are hardly available..and in Ahmedabad you have these huge big ice-cold pineapples that raeree wala`s go around selling with kakri that`s been rolled in masalah…and what masalah…the burning sensation can only be done away with after a triple decker pineapple sundae from this ice cream parlor whose name is evading me at the moment…I used to beg a second rishtae kae mamoo to take me there on his bike when I was small...and man I don`t think iv had that much fun ever after…ofcourse being a jawaan 19 year old now my mother will probably roll over and die if I do the same:) …one thing that had always left me amazed beyond belief was that women in India would drive bikes like it were no big deal..coming from Karachi where women sit in a petite acceptable fashion with both legs on one side, seeing these jumbo aunties zooming off with their sari ka pallu flying was incredible…ahmedabad is more like a big village as compared to Bombay..but one thing that`s common to both is the simple style of living…as in, over here in karachi theres a lot of pomp n show..dikhava I would say at the risk of being cliched…over there in bombay and ahmedabad the food, clothing, lifestyle is all basic and people do their own thing…or maybe that`s just the impression I get when I visit for a few weeks…also ahmedabad might be a little like lahore where one must be careful of what one says and wears…what one may wear in bombay one may definitely not in ahmedabad for there is the risk of offending chachima`s sensibilities :0) bombay like karachi is terribly laid back…a distinct feature of bombay is the jhoprian or `jhopar pattis` like the indian cousins put it..almost everywhere that one goes you see homeless people sleeping cooking eating under the open air on the pavements…the road on the way home from the airport is also flooded with these people…in karachi beggars are found in abundance but no such obvious dwellings on footpaths and road sides…the traffic jam at every single road in bombay is something a whole book can be written about…it takes a good 2 hours to get from where we stay at beach candy to the ac market to shop for clothes…beach candy is exactly like our Zamzama where there are upscale shops sprinkled all over the streets…Charagh Din, Nee punhal, Rui, Amarsons, Sheetaal, chopatti (kikazz coconut karree) the works…ohh and the fruit walas below amarsons!!! The custard apples are almost as big as footballs…here ours are the size of a fist…the fruit shops are very `propah` with the fruits on display with a lot of oomph…Juhu beach is divine..i even saw Amitabh Bacahan there the last time we had gone..and also Sunil Gavaskar who like my mother commented was the only well dressed man we had seen in all of bombay..bombay is nothing like what we see on Zee T.V, Sony or Star..none of the glamour…but much fun…there is a quaint book shop somewhere in the old parts of bombay…second hand books that will drive any book lover mad…the old man there is wonderful and lets one stay for hours without disturbing…I get as many books as I can without being disowned by my people..got my first Ismat chughtai and R.K narayan there when I was 16..the books in india are very very cheap..first hand and second hand...while the going rate for second hand books here in the Sunday, mangal, jumma bazaars is 40 the books there are for less than 20…new original (not the pirated ones) books here cost above 200 or so while there one may get 4 of the same in that range…and of course like any other big city bombay has its pretentious hang outs..sitting at one I couldn`t help but think of how the teenagers there were just like my pakistani counterparts at The Point, Aylanto here in Karachi…fakeness and complexes it seems are a universal or maybe sub continental trait…whats funny here, is that if my passport was not discovered to be expired just as it was being sent for the visa a week ago, I would have been somewhere in Arundhati roys Kerala eating mangoes this very minute…:0(

Smart Pakistani

``We are not in favour of a default and think an alternative strategy is quite workable; yet to paint a dreadful picture of default is not right either. Thirteen countries of South America actually defaulted in 1980 but their action did not prove catastrophic. The World Bank and other financial institutions have given a new timeframe for the recovery of more than 130 loans during the last 20 years. Russia keeps on defaulting even today, yet world institutions hold talks with it and are even considering writing off its loans. Only some months ago, the G-7 considered writing off $38 billion of loans dating back to the Soviet period, and negotiations are on for repaying the remaining loans in 30 years. A global campaign is raging throughout the world these days and the G-7 in its Cologne, London, and Paris conferences has promised a write-off of loans of 61 countries worth some $100 billion.

We can benefit from the criteria under discussion for a loan write-off with respect to the ability to repay loans, provided that we take a firm stance that: ``

On chowk, paklistanis are trying to prove that theirs is a prod country, better in every way than the bania country, while a smart pakistan, dawn of today, is hatching an arguement not to pay the debt. Provoded service to the americans for 15years, then came the arabs, a little now to the chinese, and now tto the world at large.

I know the book gives full details about how to kill cows and the kafirs and other infidels, anything about making a honest living, other than by tending camels.

That was very good.

hamidm #63

``okay, what do i have to do to prove that i am a true-blue pakistani who would rather stick toothpicks under his nails than suffer a horrible heeng eating hindoo``

I have never spoken of Hindus or Hinduism in a disrpectful way as you try to make it look like above. And indeed I have spoken out clearly against Pakistanis. It is you who have the problem of hating a religion or a group of people - the only difference between you and Jay or Urstruly is that (a) they are incapable of writing as cleverly as you and of hiding their hatred behind a skein of humor (that layer being easily taken off when your majesty is offended, as I noticed in a previous interaction with you); (b) they hate other people`s religions and countries, while you hate your own. Doesnt make you any better than them.

``.......heck, if you want i`ll walk across the street and pee on doctor gupta`s yard``

Again, I have always advocated living in a decent manner, and not one of the hundred or so posts I must have written on chowk have been anything different. You are simply re-directing your lies and prejudices about Pakistan and Islam towards me this time.

We happen to have had a Hindu family in our neighborhood for years, and we watch out for one another`s mail and lawn and so forth when the other one is on vacation. We dont think of each other as Hindu or Muslim - just as good neighbors. This is something that hate-filled people like you and Jay will never understand.

``i never shop at patel brothers and always buy ahmed and shan products``

Do you remember me ever advocating shopping one place or another? The rest of your post is no better. I am sure your loyal fans on chowk will be thrilled by your clever remarks. I think you are a real twit, if your majesty will excuse the expression.

``i feel sorry for the kashmiris and wish them well, but i feel sorrier for the poor and the wretched that live in karachi and lahore and pindi``

I dont believe you could give a flying you-know-what for the wretched and poor of the sub-continent. All you care about is having a bit of fun on chowk insulting one group of people in the subcontinent while sitting cozily in the US writing your ``humorous`` insults.

In my previous post, the sentence ``And indeed I have spoken out clearly against Pakistanis`` should read ``And indeed I have spoken out clearly against Pakistanis on chowk who engage in such insults.``

Not to cast an evil eyes on the family gems, but am curious to know whether the `heriditary businessmen class` across the border is considered to have enough stomach to respond to a strike with a strike?

tahmad # 321

It really doesnt matter if I say that I dont hate anyone and yes this statement also includes Hindus. I only make sure that when Islam or Pakistan is bashed and I repeat ``bashed`` unnecessarily by:

1. People from a country where cows are holy and women are Bar-b-Qd, where men are insects and insects are deities and....

2. Quadianis who are ashamed to call themselves Quadianis but are dying to become Muslims, who spare no effort to insult Rasool, Islam, and Islamic injunctions and yet yearn to be called as Muslims. Use Muslim names and portray themselves as enlightened ones and hide behind their minority status when they and Mirza is taken to task (I think it hasn`t happened yet, someone just give me reason and my finger is itching on the trigger).

3. Baysharam Liberals-Dhobi kay kuttay ghar kay nah ghaat kay. I have written enough about them already who never are never tired of talking about Secularism and Egalitarianism and yet they are the worst Fascists I have ever seen.

4. Christians who spare no effort to insult Islam, our Prophet, our Injunctions and when taken to task suddenly become,gays, perverts, transvestites, cross-dressers, transexiuals, and PMs.

5. And neem-Mullah like yourself, who have adopted to the new environment at Chowk to carry on with your ``wardaat`` under changed circumstances; who discriminate between human victims while preaching for humanity and injustices.

And you know, I dont hate anyone, I only make sure that the shi-t hits the fan, and everyone is showered with the same blessings. So that the pain is equally shared. That is what humanity and human decency is all about, isnt it? Sharing the pain, hunh?

Re: satyawadi

I know you didn`t ask me for my opinion on this but I must say Ahmedabad is a kooky city. Too many damn Gujjus running around who want to put sugar in all their food ... why can`t they just wait till dessert to use the sugar? :)

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