Afghanistan Reflections

Romair # 62

I like Ali1`s theory better. Even if it does not apply in this pareticular instance, what Ali is suggesting is bound to happen, sooner or later. If I were an American, India would have been my first choice to control unstable and ``rogue`` nations on its West. Pakistan needs China more than ever and vice versa.

Some interesting replies thus far but it appears that most people here are avoiding calling a spade a spade.
Much has been written on CHOWK on this subject now. I tried to make it a point not to mention India anywhere in this piece but as usual, the
small group of posters with origins from across the border could not resist dragging Pakistan-India relations into this.
The forces of extremism threaten everyone. On September 11, among the dead were innocent Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Iranians and Arabs. This attack not only targeted America but ended up hurting the whole world.
It was a crime against humanity.

Ras

Urstruly

China and Pakistan need each other more than ever

There can be no doubt of this. China is set to invest $100 billion into Xinjiang, additionally the Shanghai group was organized to facilitate this investment and to provide a western outlet for the fruit of that investment.

Now The American has asserted itself in Central Asia, and will not leave; the Russian has made his choice. The American suggest that other Muslim nations will also be targetted; the seeds of a larger conflict are being sowed. In a way this is the beginning of the end of American forward position in the Middle East and South Asia and a yet another retransformation of the internal and external organization of Muslim polities from North Africa to Indonesia.

Pakistan joined the coalition after consulting with the Chinese, either way, neither China nor a combination of China and Pakistan could have saved the Taliban client, indeed the Taliban regime could not have been saved under any circumstance, the event of September 11, only served to speed up the inevitable. Pakistani nuclear facilities to be targetted? Get real, more than just Pakistan have an interest in these facilities and global balance. Yes, it serves to sober up cetain elements in country but makes no sense and is naive.

Keep their nerve, and their fingers crossed, is all either China or Pakistan can do for the time being - unless, something of a spine developes in armed segments of Saudi society (not necessarily anti American) and Pakistan enacts laws to gaurantee Saudi and Gulf investment. The single biggest reason Saudi and Gulf investments shy away from Pakistan is the lack of consistency of Pakistani economy policy, followed by the lack of trustworthyness of Pakistani politicians.



For next three to five years, Look for:

A stronger, more liberal, in key areas, more authoritarian, Pakistani State, preparing for distinct possibility of a slow building, nuanced but larger conflagration.

The possibility of an acceptable deal on Kashmir

A ``quiteism``, (preceded by a lot of street protest and it`s brutal suppression) in the ranks of parties such as JI, followed by the slow championing of liberty within a Islamic framework and Islamic/Islamacized references. Liberty is Liberty, does it make a difference what color the cat is as long as it catches mice?

A barren wilderness, a poverty of vision, character and integrity, in all other national and regional political parties.

Without approval from official and unoffical Islamic sources and references, The system of Qist or installment payment, requiring an acceptance and respect of credit (to be defined as an aspect of Amanat), Internal market based a framework of documentation and transparency, profitable banking, Infrastructure and home construction and sales, automobile industry, mass consumption of big ticket household consumer goods, will not takeoff, regardless of the level of investment. Before the investment, there has to be an intellectual basis for the acceptance of the underlying system of economic development.

(If I had a dime for every wish? - actually, I do think this is doable)

In terms of Pakistan, historic investment in education and human resource development.

A gaurantee, the American will not enable any sale of weapon systems such as fighter aircraft or AWACS or JSTARS to Pakistan. Pakistani navy will continue to be a small, impotent, littoral navy, with an strategic emphasis on tactical submarines. Pakistani hardware for all services will continue to be less than first rate, with the exception of missiles.

A more diversified set of export customers, with more emphasis on exports to EU, and Middle Eastern manufacturing and sales joint ventures.

Closer alignment of the Pakistani economy with that of the Chinese; with Chinese manufactured goods imported and Pakistani raw and semi-processed material exported to China.

Romair:

I always thought that ppl like `jay` r the worst voice of India, and I was yet to see the worst voice from Pakistan, my country.

And then i read some recent posts of urs.

Can a man be so blind to belive in Pakistani army`s absurd policies in the region, which has threatened the normal lives of so many ppl? Even the belief in God should be tested on some rationality, from time to time.

Now when the gneral musharaf is behaving like an internatioal prostitute (unwilling, though) in selling the national honor and sovereignity, which no arab country is ready to do, even saudi arab, ppl like u r still seeing the wisdom in army`s old policies. If now, they had to talk to former king of Afghanistan, why did they push jahil students of Fazlur rehman on Afghanistan? They perhaps thought, if punjabis can dominate pakitsan, why not pathans in Afhanistan. After all, they both r major ethnic communities in pak and afghanistan. It is just like how army intelligence came up with Punjabi-Pukhtoon ittehad in Karachi to defeat MQM. Now, this Punjabi-Pukhtoon ittehad was building up to defeat India. And they called it `strategic depth`. my foot!

As if an unwilling prostitute murmurs from time to time to beg for some good treatment, General musharaff is begging USA not to let northern alliance get Afghanistan. And he got a timely reprimand from former king`s camp to mind his own business. Can a general be so degraded? it is worst than 1971 defeat, as it came to an end. But this deefat wil haunt them as long as single Afghan is there across the border to remind Pakistani army of its kingmaker role in Afghanistan.

By serving the temporary US interests, the army would get something in money and plotical recognition from USA, but the dishonor that they brought to Pakistan for supporting and creating that jahil regime in Afghanistan will not go away. Their kashmir policy (of getting kashmiris trained in Afghanistan), and then denying their roles in insuregency is also in doldrums.

The only way that we can limit these absurd and militant role of army in Pakistan is to limit its size. its gonna hurt the punjabis the most, but they must accept their realistic role in Pakistan, as much as pathans need to understand their size in Afghanistan.

Lets put and end to this punjabi-pukhtoon ittehad in the south east asia.

tahmed,

Thick plottens is/was a common expression in australia, at least in those days in melbourne.

jay

Osamas’ stab passengers



BY ANIL ASHUTOSH

TIMES NEWS NETWORK



HANBAD: Osama bin Laden travelling in a general compartment of the Ganga-Damodar Express? Sounds ridiculous. But two youths identifying themselves as ‘Osama’ not only created a brawl over a petty issue in a compartment of the train on Wednesday morning but also stabbed three co-passengers.

According to the SP (rail), M M Ojha, some passengers of the Ganga-Damodar Express coming from Patna pulled the chain of the train near the outer cabin of the Gomoh railway station about 4.45 am Wednesday to alight from the train. Other passengers objected to this, which led to a heated altercation. As the altercation was on, two quarrelling youths, all on a sudden, announced that they were Osama bin Laden and stabbed three passengers.

DOCTRINE OF NECESSITY,

The above is a unique contribution of pak supreme court to the legal system. When ever there is a coup, the great supreme court of pakistan says that the coupe is all right and is legal because it has taken place and if we dont agree, we will be shot. hence is the term doctrine of necessity.

Now the great mushy also could have used this to justify his tail between the legs run from the taliban. No he has coined a new one, THE DOCTRINE OF NATIONAL INTEREST. Instead of accepting the reality that they had no choice, or rather the choice was to get bombed along with afghanistan, or get the bombing postponed to another day, the mushy chose the first. In fact that is the only choice for closet islamict of the allegedly ataturk variety. But he says that it was done on national interest, which leaves the question, what was he doing all these days.

Well, all that he aws interested was the good of the military.

Wow! Mohsin Hamid seems to have arrived. I have now heard about his ``Mothsmoke`` mentioned on at least 2 different programs on radio land.

Ahmed Rashid appears to have hit it too with his ``Taliban.``

Good that it`s not just merchants of death that are profiting from this war.

RAS #66

Well for the moment consider the following (you can do the resaerch - these are available in most news reports (print as well as tv, interviews as well as reports) - afterall we are all reporters/journos etc. Remember I said elsewhere- Musharraf did not side with the Americans because of National ietrest or some sense of justice - he did it because it was conviniennt for the establishment and the elite.

(a) it was convient that there was a fire in the army HQ - only paper was lost apparently. What sort of paper was it that was lost!

(b) JeM man, Fazloor telephoned the ISI chief about the Srinagar blasts - there are apparently telphone intercepts

(c) apparently the heroin stocks and processing facilities of the ISI were not destroyed completely by the people in charge - it was supposed to be a hamfisted operation - and the NGOs going into those areas found these out (perhaps the members of the same NGOs were also preaching to thepeople christianity)

(d) (this next point is just speculation and has no factual basis - it cannot be ascertained without data).Many well-informed persons in Pakistan believe that the terrorist strikes in the US were actually carried out by the Al Jihad of Egypt with the collaboration of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) of Pakistan. (Note: HUM has mutated as well)

(e) leading members of the ISI new about the money transactions of the terrorists, and may have participated in it!

Note all of this has been said in public and is available in print. Think about the implication and ramifications of the above even if 3 out of the five are true. And realise the precarious situation.

For sometime, even if indians on chowk cannot do so, learned and intelliegnt pakistanis should get over the india fixation, and trying to out do each other in their support of the establishment and current elite, and think about the problems ahead. And the role models or beacons for a road map are so few and far between that I am afraid unless you look to elsewhere, you will not find signposts to get out of the current quagmire.

The game is no longer Kashmir or afghanistan. Its time most realised that.

sac #30: ``re Field Marshal(Hon.) ROmair`s babblings:

If you had an iota of self-respect you`d keep away from Chowk for a couple of months. Wasn`t there a 1000 word scholarly treatise from you(and some of your sypathisers) disputing my contention about the Islamic tendencies of the Army generals? The sidelining of the Islamist generals is the most important news coming out of Pakistan in the present imbroglio. The diehards won`t fade away into the night though. This is just the beginning.``

It is always interesting to read replies that include name-calling. It reminds me of my childhood days, when as kids, we used to indulge in such practices:-) In a debate, it is the first sign of a person, who has run out of credible information, and yet still wants to prove his/her point. At such a stage, it becomes impossible to carry out an useful discussion, because one either has to reduce one`s own self to similar childish antics, or somehow or the other convince the other person of the lack of knowledge on the subject. I have no interest in doing the former, but I will make one final attempt to do the later.

One of the greatest traits a person can have is to know the limitations of one`s knowledge. One good way to decide the limitations is to realize that one cannot have much knowledge of a subject without having studied it or gaining experience in it. Even geniuses like Einstein did not understand military policies, traditions or strategy. And genuises like Napoleon did not understand Physics, due to the above described reasons. But you seem to have reached a level above them, and understand the military better than I do; even though, to the best of my knowledge you have not a single day`s experience in it, while I have over a decade`s experience. You could be twice as intelligent as I, but definitely not more than that. How could you comprehend in less than one day, what I could not comprehend in 12 years. Amazing.

However, since you will not believe anything I say, I will quote from a recent interview from Najam Sethi at tehelka.com. Perhaps you will believe him. If you don`t believe him either, then I am afraid you are far too sure of your knowledge of the Army, than you should be:

``But Musharraf seems to be under lot of pressure. He is virtually cornered, with protests on the streets, and religious leaders trying to cash in on the situation. Then, he made dramatic changes in the army ranks. What was the urgent need to shift out Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) chief General Mahmood?

If you had the opportunity to see Musharraf at this press conference, you would not have said this. He was confident, was able to tick off people, and smiled at questions as he brushed them aside. He was very confident, and that is not the confidence of a man who seems cornered in any sense. I think this situation is entirely manageable. Musharraf`s confidence is further pronounced by the sweeping changes he made to the army hierarchy. He even moved out people he was known to be close to; people who were responsible for bringing him to power, like General Mahmood, General Usmani or General Aziz.

What happened in these three cases is as follows: General Aziz and General Mahmood were the part of Musharraf`s kitchen Cabinet. Aziz has now been elevated to the ceremonial position of chairman of joint chief of staff committee. As far as General Mahmood is concerned, he has been superseded; a junior officer has been made vice-chief of army staff, the number two position in the army. Musharraf didn`t think twice about giving Mahmood the option of either staying on, or taking premature retirement. This also suggests that Musharraf was not entirely happy with the way Mahmood has been running the ISI. I don`t think a cornered man could act with so much confidence.

What were the differences between Musharraf and the ousted ISI chief? Was General Mahmood inclined towards fundamentalism? Was he a little too soft on the Taliban?

I`m simply saying that it is too premature to speculate. There must have been points of differences to have caused this about-turn, and we have to leave it at that fact.

Do you think there were differences on handling the Afghanistan situation as well?

Yes absolutely. If you want me to speculate, I will speculate. Probably, the ISI was unable to persuade the Taliban to bend. In that sense, the ISI was the Taliban handler. Clearly, the person who was heading the ISI was responsible for the inability to rein in the Taliban. And there the chief, I mean Musharraf, seemed to have differed with his ISI director.

Did the US ask for changes of this kind?

When General Mahmood was in the US, he met with all the top brass there, including the top politicians, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)…all of them. The news over here was that they gave him a thumping approval. If anything, the Americans would be a little apprehensive about why Mahmood has been sidelined, and why he decided to call it a day. The Americans would probably be happier if he continued as ISI chief (my note: Please read this comment again, before coming up with conspiracy theories).

What is the reaction within the army ranks over these changes?

The army ranks do not have a reaction. They are used to obeying orders, and in a situation like this, they definitely have to follow orders. There is absolutely no dissension within the army ranks. The army has always followed orders, even when the orders have clearly seemed illogical or unnecessary.

Don`t you think the situation now is quite different from what it used to be?

No, it is not.

President Musharraf himself has pointed out that the situation in Pakistan is somewhat like 1971. Don`t you think it is a difficult situation for Pakistan?

Undoubtedly. But in 1971 also, the army was united.

So you do not expect any dissensions within the army ranks, despite the sweeping changes?

Let me say that I do not expect any changes in the army to lead to a different situation. The army is united, the army is firmly behind its chief, and I do not expect any challenge to General Musharraf`s authority. (my note: Another comment to suppress your conspiracy theories)(complete interview at http://www.tehelka.com/channels/currentaffairs/2001/oct/10/ca101001najam1.htm)

I would also encourage you to read the detailed write-up Najam Sethi did on General Ghulam Ahmad (ex-DG ISI) who recently died in a car accident. If you have any first-hand knowledge of why two generals were superseded, that is superior to Sethi`s knowledge, then please enlighten us. If you do not, then how about I make a suggestion: I will not try to claim expertise in your current and former profession(s) without gaining experience first, if you try to not claim expertise in mine without the equivalent experience.

Hope Sethi has convinced you, because I have certainly given up trying to.

P.S. (note to myself: It is impossible to convince Indians who have never been to Kashmir, on Kashmir, even if I quote Gandhi. And it is equally impossible to convince Pakistanis, who have never been in the military, on the military, even if I quote Sethi :-)) Perhaps I should claim myself to be an expert on Metereology, Medicine and Mumbai; three things I have never been a part of.

There have been a lot of discussions on the need of purging of religious fanatics from the Army. I never considered this part of the problems that exist in the Army. The Army is still much more liberal than the rest of Pakistan (not counting a few sectors in Islamabad, and the Karachi and Lahore defence societies; areas where many Chowkwallas belong to). The Army will be a microcosm of the rest of Pakistan, and if the rest of Pakistan become religiously fanatical, then eventually, so will the Army. There is nothing anyone can do to stop that, specifically within the Army, without fixing the problem in the rest of Pakistan.

However, Pakistan is not religiously fanatical. Never was. And hopefully never will be. The election results and the lack of support of the current extremist riots should prove that, once and for all. I have been saying this, all along. The riots have all but died down, now, within a few days. So much for the civil war that everyone was talking about.

Now, if Musharraf really wants to fix the military, and its relationship with the civilian society, here are some suggestions, pointing to actual problems; not ones based on conspiracy theories:

- Cut down the high command of the military to size. The number of Maj General and above in all three forces should be cut to 1/3rd there current number (lower ranks should command the positions these guys have). This will automatically reduce the influence of the military in civlian circles, and will cut down on resource drain.

- Raise the living standards (pay, allowances etc.) of colonels and below. These guys are living hand to mouth, due to which, many of the ones with potential leave very early in their careers.

- Let the President appoint the Chiefs, as opposed to the Prime Minister. If any PM can get his own guy in the Chief`s position, he will be able to use the Army to do his/her dirty work.

- Cut the size of the military to as small as possible to successfully maitain a credible defense to support the nuclear deterent.

- Privatize the defense armament producing industries, if it can be done so efficiently. The Pakistan military`s defense production facilities (and its training institutions) like Kamra etc. are extremely well organized, and can be a great source of foreign exchange. A bigger source than they are now. They work on some extremely sophisticated projects.

- Get all the retired Generals out of civilian govt. posts. Once a general retires, he should try to make it in private enterprise, or resign himself to gardening. Just like most Chowkwallas, who have had nothing to do with the military (weren`t it it, aren`t military brats, didn`t study military affairs in college, etc.), consider themselves experts in the military, similarly many retired Generals live in the same fantasy world, and consider themselves experts in various civilian areas.

- Make it compulsory for anyone to make it to Lt. Gen. to have a Master`s degree from a civilian local or international university (not from a military staff college, alone).

- Ensure that a group of corps commanders and COAS, just by themselves, should never be in a position to make decisions for the rest of the country. I know some current and past (and future) corps commanders. While they are quite good at their jobs, many of them have quite a limited understanding of what is going on the world. Luckily Musharraf doesn`t fall into this group, and he seems to rely more on his civilians like Shaukut Aziz.

- Make the military completely secular. The military, in its traditions, is still quite secular. It will remain so, as long as the Pakistani society does not completely go towards extremism.

This does not mean firing anyone with a beard, or anyone who like Jamaat-e-Islami. It means making sure religion is not a part of the military society (except as a motivation for shahadat). This is the military that I remember. However, over the years, due to interventions from, ``statesmen`` like Zia, Bhutto etc., the military is not as secular as it used to be.

In my opinion, the Pakistani society should be somewhere in between secularims and religion (no Ata-turks, and no Amir-ul-Momineen) because that is where the general populace wants it to be. And the Pakistani military should be completely secular. Which is where most officers want it to be.

A completely secular military (and beaurecracy), with a moderate Muslim politics is a good combination for Pakistan.

More later................

-

Bhardwaj and tahmed321

Bhardwaj U R crazy. Can`t understand very baisc stuff. Dhatura is old fashined stuff. This is the age of designer medicine for good kicks. U should try it for the sake of experience with or without erotica. I was saying Uncle Sam is watching Pakistan and Pakistan`s baby called Taliban.

Tahmed321 - Pakistani baby with beard is undoubtably ferocious. Indian baby gets scared.

Now the news is that Gen Mahmood knew of wire transfer from Pakistani Bank to terrorists and one of them was LSE student who was also involved in Indian plane hijacking to Kandhar with full knowledge of Mushy. It will haunt Mushy who has been smarting all this time. Pakistani army, clerics, PPP of Benazir and ML of NS and the US and LK Advani, all are looking for him. It is written on the walls-``Kafir imamon ka katl karo``. Do you think Mushy is blind that he can not read such slogans. Pakistan sponsors terrorism.

Mushy keeps talking of ``assets``. It means nukes. Obviously he is WORRIED.

An interesting column from NYT about Peshawar -- the Casablanca of Afghani intrigue -- from where some of the future rulers and coalitins will emerge - the picture is rather unflattering.

PESHAWAR

A City of Exiles Dreams of Power Regained

By BARRY BEARAK

PESHAWAR, Pakistan, Oct. 10 — They hold meetings, drink green tea, hold more meetings, drink more tea. Occasionally, they call Washington or Islamabad or Rome. These are exciting days. The world seems to have turned upside down, and that means they may be back on top.

Peshawar, the capital of the Afghan diaspora, is the meeting place of exiled commanders, politicians, mullahs and a million refugees. Since Sept. 11, it has provided the intrigue of Casablanca. Men who were once very important are making big plans to be important again in an imagined post-Taliban Afghanistan. Some of these men see themselves as future leaders.

Today, as a half dozen confederates sat on his veranda, Abdul Haq, once a renowned guerrilla fighter in the jihad against the Soviets, was regretting the delay in his overthrow of the militant Islamic Taliban government. Last week, he had predicted success was imminent, the chore requiring one day to finish, maybe two.

``We can do all this without fighting,`` he had said cheerfully. ``The Taliban are ready to collapse. Some have already been contacting us. They cross the mountains in the darkness to speak with me. They`ll make an alliance with us and the former mujahedeen and the tribal leaders. We`ll roll through Jalalabad and on to Kabul.``

But now the Americans have botched things by bombing Afghanistan, he said. ``People are rallying around the Taliban,`` he complained glumly, his huge body seated in the soft embrace of an easy chair.

Beside him were his shoes, and inside the right one was a prosthetic foot, necessitated by a misstep on a land mine. Mr. Haq, 43, is now largely a businessman in the United Arab Emirates. He returned to Pakistan only a week ago, emerging from military mothballs for the chance to reclaim Afghanistan.

While Western leaders plot which amalgam of Afghanistan`s ethnic groups might provide the most representative government if the Taliban are ousted — balancing ousted royalty, Tajik commanders and presentable Pashtuns — the reality of this region`s shifting politics and allegiances is represented by the likes of Mr. Haq. There are several men like him in Peshawar, this wildly colorful smuggler`s paradise near the border with Afghanistan. They are prepared to play a central part in a post-Taliban world, especially if that role is a starring one.

Soon, the world is likely to be reminded yet again of how fractious Afghanistan is. It is a place of clan rivalries with a long history of betrayals and revenge. There is bad blood and worse blood, and a thirst for blood. The collection of would-be rulers gathered here provides one more indication of just how treacherous it will be for anyone to attempt to install a stable government.

Last Sunday, Pir Syed Ahmad Gailani, 67, leader of one of the sundry Afghan political parties, was holding talks with 30 tribal chieftains and Islamic scholars.

The pir, holder of a religious title akin to Your Holiness, is the spiritual head of a minority Sufi religious sect in Afghanistan. In the old days, he additionally owned the rights to the Peugeot dealership in Kabul. The city was then a place where the elite admired French culture. Word is out that he sees himself as prime minister of an interim regime.

He kindly broke free of his assembled guests and spared a few moments to answer questions for a dozen or so foreign journalists who sat on a carpet at his feet. He had not held forth to so many reporters in a great many years, if ever.

Would he support the return of Afghanistan`s former king, Mohammad Zahir Shah? ``We deeply respect His Majesty,`` the pir said, ``but we believe the prevailing situation is beyond the capacity of any one individual or group to remedy.``

Several bearded men nodded in assent. ``There is no question of contention,`` the pir continued. ``All we are trying to suggest is that His Majesty broaden his base, including with him all the leadership and important personalities of Afghanistan.``

Zahir, 86, does not reside in Peshawar. Dethroned in 1973, he prefers to conduct his self-exile in a Roman villa. It places him a great distance from other Afghan refugees, but despite this remoteness he now seems the consensus choice to bring Afghanistan back together, though as a father figure rather than a monarch.

After 22 years of war — with warlords turning cities into rubble and the Taliban turning music into a crime — absence has made hearts fonder of the former king. Few Afghans recall the man that goes with the title. He is under their radar, smaller than life. In a land of complete dreariness, he therefore is hope.

Zahir has long championed something called the loya jirga process, the convening of a grand council of elders who, through some alchemy of combined wisdom, would bring lasting peace and incorruptible

ylh #207 I just responded to this post on the board titled ``On Hate`` where you had posted on the same subject. Please treat that as a response to this post as well.

re ROmair #68:

The Field Marshal refuses to fade away, I see. It used to be Ayaz Amir now its Najam Sethi he quotes with abandon. Dude you can`t have it both ways. On the one hand you refuse to hear opinions of people who haven`t served a single day in the army and then you quote Najam Sethi who falls in the same category to make some point(only God knows what...). I just don`t get it.

I have time and again pointed out the fallacies in your arguments. You rarely write less than 1000 words per reply. If one twentieth of that happens to prove correct, you thump your chest for all and sundry to see how brilliant you are. There is no mention of the rest of your ``brilliant`` deductions(I am still waiting for the privatisation of PTCL BTW). I presume you are not an immature bipolar kid like ylh trying to find himself in this crazy world. Learn to be a little more tolerant of others before complaining about the `childish` behaviour of others and admit your mistakes gracefully. Otherwise keep getting beat up from the likes of me. I am not going to lay off.

later

-sac

Urstruly #67: I have read your current and previous comments with great interest, and I must say, in my opinion, I have found yours to be some of the most balanced analyses on this site.

What you have stated in this reply, makes a lot of sense. Perhaps somewhat idealistic, but that is the general direction things will move, in my opinion, also.