War Now and, Forever?

Musharraf has been saying, ``After me, the deluge`` for quite some time now. Let us see what happens.

Musharraf Is as Good as Gone

By SIMON HENDERSON

(Simon Henderson is a London-based adjunct scholar of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has written extensively on Pakistan`s nuclear policy.)

As the tension between India and Pakistan appear to ease, the days of Pakistani military dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf as president are probably numbered.

Confronting India to liberate the Muslims of the divided state of Kashmir is a basic ethos of the Pakistani army. Before Sept. 11, supporting the Taliban had ensured that Pakistani rather than Indian influence was dominant in Afghanistan. Since Musharraf is now tainted with failure, his brother officers are almost certainly already selecting his replacement from among their ranks.

Unless Pakistan`s current thinking can be changed, the next leader has a single card to play and only a short window of opportunity in which to play it. As the U.S. government knows but is careful not to say, Pakistan`s small arsenal of atomic bombs is superior in design and efficiency to India`s. Pakistan`s Hiroshima-size bombs will work while India`s might perform disappointingly, as did the bomb it tested in 1998. Furthermore, Pakistan`s missiles work better than the Indian equivalents.

Pakistan achieved this temporary advantage by, from India`s perspective, cheating. While India took pride in the largely indigenous development of nuclear weapons and missiles, Pakistan struck nuclear deals with China (India`s regional rival) and arranged missile sales from North Korea (probably just for money).

Musharraf`s logic was to raise tension and so force international intervention in Kashmir, leading to a referendum among its people to choose between Indian or Pakistani sovereignty. Confidently (perhaps overconfidently) expecting Kashmiris to choose Pakistan would strengthen the Islamic republic while deepening schisms in the Indian confederation.

If such tactics require encouraging Al Qaeda-linked Kashmiri militant groups to carry out terrorist outrages in India--as in the attack on the parliament in New Delhi on Dec. 13--then, from Pakistan`s point of view, this was legitimate.

In tolerating the activities of the militant groups (perhaps even knowing their plans), Musharraf seems to have completely misread the messages he has received from the U.S. since Sept. 11. Although not reported, CIA chief George Tenet was already lecturing the visiting head of Pakistan`s feared Inter-Services Intelligence on U.S. exasperation with Islamabad`s effective patronage of Osama bin Laden before the jets crashed into the World Trade Center twin towers and the Pentagon. Washington promptly organized another three days of meetings to ram home the message, ``Don`t play with terrorism.``

President Bush has limited policy options while U.S. troops are still hunting down Bin Laden, Mullah Mohammed Omar and residual Al Qaeda cells and needs Pakistan`s help to do it. But having U.S. military commanders now regularly visiting Pakistan will enable Washington`s message to be passed on directly to Pakistan`s top generals. British Prime Minister Tony Blair can say the same when he visits the region.

Part of the message should also be that Pakistan cannot afford to engage in an arms race with India. Pakistan has a population of about 145 million compared with more than 1 billion Indians. India`s gross domestic product of $2.2 trillion is eight times that of Pakistan`s, and its industrial base is far more extensive. In such a race, Pakistan is cast in the role of the Soviet Union, which was bankrupted and forced into collapse in its effort to match U.S. military spending.

Washington also must restrain India`s military posturing as the immediate crisis abates. In coming months, both countries may feel tempted to carry out more nuclear tests to iron out the glitches in their arsenals, as well as to conduct more flight tests of missiles. Beijing`s assistance might be useful to the U.S.; two weeks ago Musharraf went for talks with the Chinese leadership and seems to have received less than a green light for his strategy.

Is there anyone in the Pakistani leadership ready to recognize reality?

The post-Sept. 11 arrest, under U.S. insistence, of two retired nuclear scientists--top experts in reprocessing plutonium who had been meeting Bin Laden--shows the extent to which the country had been playing with fire. Could U.S. pressure be applied for allowing political parties--banned since Musharraf`s 1999 coup--without releasing the genie of anti-American street sentiment?

In the short term, the U.S. may have to acquiesce to the emergence of yet another military leader. Musharraf no longer has the standing to offer concessions in the talks with India that he is seeking. Combined with a more constructive policy on Kashmir by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, tensions could be eased, giving time for the Afghanistan campaign to finish. India and Pakistan must be persuaded that their conflict is not a zero-sum game.

#1 concerned

A war to end all wars?

Hey, where have i heard that?

Re: sadna

``...Bush while making the announcement said LeT was a `stateless` entity...``

You know what is going on, don`t you? That statement is the reflective of the gradual incremental pressure on Pakistan by the US. It is a shot across the bows that Musharraf had better heed. Of course, the US knows which state the LeT derives its sustenance from.

Veeresh Bhai Jaan

.`` Why don`t my Pakistani friends ask 50% of their population, the women, if they want to follow the much vaunted hard core Islamic model which reduces them to drudgery?``---Isse ke kya zaroorat thhee

DONT CRY FOR ME INDIA,THE TRUTH IS I NEVER COULD BE HAPPIER

I am a Muslim Woman

I am a Muslim Woman

Feel free to ask me why

When I walk, I walk with dignity

When I speak, I do not lie

I am a Muslim Woman,

Not all of me you`ll see

But what you should appreciate

Is that the choice I make is free

I`m not plagued with depression

I`m neither cheated nor abused

I don`t envy other women

And I`m certainly not confused

Note, I speak perfect English

Et un petit peu de francais aussie

I`m majoring in Linguistics

So you need not speak slowly

I own my own small business

Every cent I earn is mine

I drive my Chevy to school and work

And no, that`s not a crime

You often stare as I walk by

You don`t understand my veil

But peace and power I have found

For I am equal to any male

I am a Muslim Woman

So please don`t pity me

For God has guided me to truth

And now I`m finally free!

ref: concerned #1

Actually the only thing which will stop the wars in the sub-continent is to stop being held hostage by the past.

-narain

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This would have been a balanced article had the author been more opne minded....

While he certainly and effectively criticises the jehadi groups on the border ... He make s no mention of the heavy handed atrocities of the state of India which have alienated the population of Kashmir......

A breakdown of casualties would easily reveal that the Government of India has caused more casualties in retaliation on Kashmiris than the jehadi groups....

And most of Indian retaliation has been on the civilians - somehow raping women is not a very effective counter-terrorism measure - and something Advani and his goons are trying to cover up....




Radicalism is not limited to the jehadi groups in Pakistan - Violent racist and parochial groups like the RSS and VHP now are part of the Indian govt....

Democracy is not a recipe fore moderation - In India ... ``hindU`` fascism is on the rise....the present government has very strong nationalistic and fascist tendencies...._ here you have a democratically elected leadsers using a national platform to intimidate minorities all over India....

In stark contrast .. the present Govt in Pakisistan is taking the right steps to bring Pakistan policies in line with a moderate center...

Democracy is a means to an end .... not an end in itself.... European democracies in late 19tn century fostered colonialism and brutal occupation ...

In the democratic US itself... we enslaved African Americans and almost wiped out the native American population.....( and the US was always a republican democracy) .....


In the absence of open mindedness - this is just another propaganda piece.... biased and one sided......

Ras #6
``the fact is that India does not hold any moral high ground by being this kind of democracy.``

Ras, thats what I asked. What kind of democratic processes are being allowed to function by Pakistani terrorists and Islamic fundamentalists by perpetuating violence in Indian Kashmir?


Why doesnot APHC stand for elections? Why are NC and Congress party members being killed by terrorists? Why are elected village chiefs being killed by terrorists? Why are Hindu families being killed by terrorists? Why was a Muslim schoolmaster murdered infront of his class students? These are regularly reported in the Kashmir Times too, only you are not honest enough to acknowledge it.

Why are 70% of all attacks being carried out by Pakistanis from LeT? Is SaminulHaq upholding democratic principles by `waging holy war against infidels` in Kashmir? Does he do it with your approval?

``We are all naked in this bloodbath.``
You got your chances in Lahore, Agra and two ceasefires. India is certainly answerable to Indian Kashmiris, but IMO India no longer owes anything to the Pakistani military, Musharraf or your proxies like the Lashkar-e-Taiba.

I suggest you concentrate on investigating why sectarian killings are not punished in Pakistan. It might not give you such a fuzzy feeling but hey those were humans too.

RE: Sadna #5

I quoted a news report from KT. Last week a youth was set on fire and burnt to death by Indian security forces as reported in KT also.

There is no implying here but the fact is that India does not hold any moral high ground by being this kind of democracy. Why is this so
different from any dictatorship across the border?
And what is the difference between such actions and the terror of the Taliban?

It is time not only for the Pakistanis but also very much for the Indians to wake up. We are all naked in this bloodbath.

Ras

Ras
Are you implying democracy is being allowed to function in Kashmir and this is the end result? I thought it was Pakistanis who pointed out that the turnout was low, that terrorists published threats in newspapers exhorting people to boycott the polls and APHC members refused to stand for election? Did all that have something to do with lack of democracy in Pakistan and PoK, I wonder?

News from ``The Worlds Largest Democracy`` etc...

From The Kashmir Times (Srinagar) Friday Jan 4
and yes the year is 2002...

Baker tortured to death
KT NEWS SERVICE
SRINAGAR, Jan 3: A forty five year old person and a father of two minors, who was allegedly tortured for several days by SOG, today succumbed to his injuries at SMHS hospital here.

Bashir Ahmad Mir son of Habibullah Mir a resident of Zoojilanker, Rainawari died of severe injuries here triggering tension in the locality.

Family members of Mir said he was arrested on October 25 by SOG men stationed at Air Cargo. The family had no information about his whereabouts for weeks together.

They said after a hectic perusal they found some clues about his detention at Police Hospital Jammu during last month. The police latter shifted him to Srinagar on December 16 following deterioration in his health.

For last two weeks he was struggling for his life at the hospital and was in ``severe pain``. Due to torture, the family said, his both kidneys were damaged and there were visible marks of torture all through his body. Bashir succumbed to his injuries today and a large number of people participated in his funeral.

The family said Bashir was running a baker’s shop at Nehru Park to sustain his family. It said after his arrest SOG claimed that he was an Al Badr militant who was allegedly hatching a conspiracy to kill some prominent leaders. The family termed the statement ``devoid of truth``.

Belonging to an extremely poor family, his two children and widow have no means to earn their livelihood, angry residents said.

Animals have nationalities too.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/02/international/asia/02BORD.html

``... Border officials here say it was different only a few years ago. They would hunt in each other`s territory. They would conduct joint border patrols to inspect the condition of the pickets that mark the border. During Eid and Diwali, the biggest holidays of the year for Muslims and Hindus in these parts, they would exchange sweets and greetings. The holidays passed this year in November and December without such pleasantries.

Before the fence was built, animals that strayed across the border became subjects of border diplomacy. If a Pakistani farmer`s cow crossed into Indian territory, say, a flag would be raised by the Border Security Force, a meeting between two sides convened and the offending bovine returned to its owner, recalled Sukhjinder Singh Sandhu, the commander of the Border Security Force`s 39th Battalion, which controls this part of the Jammu stretch.

If a wild boar migrated from India into Pakistan, instructions would be dispatched to come get the unmentionable animal. (Pakistani Muslims will not touch a pig, or even speak its name, so border guards there would invite border guards here to come recover the ``hunt.``)

The animals are no longer able to stray hither and thither, thanks to the fence. Today, only birds, like the black partridge native to this land, can fly freely over the border...``

----
These days other things cross the border:
One of them:
www.markazdawa.org
``7 polytheistic Hindus dispatched to Hell``

Its not just Pakistan, the US too has played its own games with India where Islamic fundamentalists are concerned. The US government didnot designate this organisation a terrorist organisation till last week though the NYT quotes Pakistani officials as saying LeT has carried of `70 % of the attacks in Indian Kashmir in the last 3 years`.
``Although Pakistani officials questioned the evidence India had against the two groups, they acknowledged that the groups were responsible for about 70 percent of all attacks in Indian-ruled Kashmir in the last three years.``

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/02/international/asia/02STAN.html

Bush while making the announcement said LeT was a `stateless` entity. Wonder what a stateless entity is doing running hundred plus schools in Pakistan. We are NOT the same people as Americans, thats for sure.

1-2 days ago, attackers with AK-47s attacked a army installation in Himachal Pradesh and killed 2 officers. Tell me, is Himachal Pradesh `disputed territory` too? Or that is undivided Punjab which Jinnah demanded.

Veeresh, we are not the same because we are being killed in disproportion. Even an American John Walker has fought Indians under Pakistani tutelage. I dislike these organisations and donot put it past them to massacre in mobs, but I have not read a single report of a Bajrang Dali or Hindu Jagaran Manch member cross the border with weapons and shoot down Pakistanis. Even SIMI cannot match the jihadi organisations in Pakistan, in the scope of these organisations ideologies and armed activism. Do we have this sort of mercenary culture among Indians?

If we are really the same people, why did it come to this?

If Pakistanis are the `same people` why were they silent when holy war against India was being preached and propagated openly in their towns and cities and while Pakistanis were being recruited for this purpose?

Why ask Indians to keep getting killed and do nothing NOW just because Pakistanis and Americans fear for their chosen military dictator`s good health? Thats what these peace demonstrators at Wagah and in the US are essentially implying, that they will protest at Indian action, but disown all responsibility for speaking up about anything else, even their own countrymen mercenaries. I donot think we are the same people.

Even now, if the US were not paying serious attention, Pakistanis wouldn`t either. Taliban would be still be ruling in Afghanistan, Imtiaz Gul would be whitewashing them in the Friday Times as he did before Sept 11 `Taliban allows girls education and is not so bad` and LeT/JeM would be motivating more and more Pakistanis to take arms training for Islam. There would be no demonstrations against all this. (Indians on chowk discussing this would be accused of `cut-and-pasting` and being `Islam-haters`, `Taliban-obsessed` or `Pakistan-obsessed`).

Anything being done now in Pakistan is under US pressure. If Indians and Pakistanis want the same things, why do issues have to appear on a US leaders agenda or highlighted in the Western media before the Pakistani government or the bulk of the Pakistani upper class even acknowledges these issues, even in their own foreign policy ?

We may by chance be still the same people, but we now have different vocabularies. Or we wouldnot be using the US`s attention span as sole leverage against each other. Indians wouldnot be explaining till they were blue in the face why attacking the Parliament was unforgivable in Indians eyes, Pakistanis would already know.

attaboy malik; detailed response later.

[...When last in history did two democracies fight wars?...]

that would be in 1999 in kargil. pak had a `democratically elected` pm then. now go ahead and tell us that kargil was not an indo-pak war.

in 1965, ayub khan was also `elected`.

there is no reason to believe that democracy in pakistan would mean an end to indo-pak wars/proxy wars. the only thing that might end wars is probably a war.