India’s Potential Lose-Lose-Lose Scenario

``India`s Potential Lose-Lose-Lose Scenario``

dil ke bahlaney ko Ghalib yeh khayal achchaa hai

Sameer and Tahmed,

Is it possible to contact either of you?

All your three ``lose`` scenarios envisage simple military positions. I don`t blame you for that assumption, since Pakistan`s history speaks mainly about pre and post military episodes. OK so far? I therefore don`t blame you for your rather Pakistani views, tinted by olive green uniforms.

However. I don`t agree with you, either.

Existing and surviving and getting forward as an Indian in India has a lot to do with much more than just military win/lose scenarios.

Please understand the word ``freedom`` before you try to take this ``scenario`` of yours further. Please also try to comprehend factors like the economy, judiciary, emancipation of women, media and most of all, agriculture and industry, before dismissing out of hand something you obviously have not much idea of.

``Army for hire`` does not make for win/lose scenarios. It just goes towards whoever will pay for it. Pakistan is today getting down on its knees in Bangladesh, ever wondered why? Is that part of the India lose/lose/lose scenario, too?

Give us a break, Umair. Let us all recognise the mutual threats facing our end of the world, and not worry too much about armies winning or losing.

Whatever.

hobbes #42

You continue your delirous ramblings:

[quote]

-In captive Kashmir there is a history to the freedom struggle and a history of armed conflict, a history of rapes and murders, a history of an occupying army. There is also a history of suppression by federal government and also of electoral rigging by the federal government.

[end-quote]

There is no occupying army in Kashmir. There is an terrorist threat and a history of invasion (48, 65, Kargil) which requires armed intervention at the federal level.

There has been popular discontent with the local administration. In the fact-free zone found in your mind, you are probably unaware that the entire administration of J&K is run by local people - from the Chief Minister to the local police to the district-level administrator.

In fact, I think you were the guy who was convinced that ``fundamentalist hindus would be elected in J&K election``! Presumably, Kashmir is a district of Gujarat in your fertile imagination!

The popular discontent in J&K would have been rectified in the usual way, through transparent elections and better governance EXCEPT that a neighboring country chose to invest millions of dollars in creating a jihad.

Further, this murderous neighbor has created training camps for the export of terrorist into the area. Till 9/11 support for camps and mass murder was the official policy of Pakistan. All of this is now well known throughout the world and one reason why Pakistanis are so universally respected and well-loved.

The international and indian press have clearly reported that the folks in the Kashmir valley mostly want to left alone. If they hate the police excesses associated with india, they equally hate the daily diet of murder and mass killings provided by Pakistan. Outside the Kashmir valley you will find most people agitating for a closer association with the rest of the country.

But why bother with facts? They are messy and may lead to the need for thought and reflection (NOT!)

tavrad,

{{This is an ideological battle which is why no one in the world wants to touch it with a ten foot bargepole. No country except India and Pakistan even has an opinion on the matter!}}

WELL SAID!!

I`ve been asking Pakistanis REPEATEDLY why even their ``brother`` muslim countries & their ``all-weather friend`` China has not made a PUBLIC stance of totally coming out on Pakistan`s side?!!

After all, most Pakistanis are soooo convinced that they hold a HIGHER moral ground on the Kashmir issue than India!...So why would their own friends betray them like this? I`ve YET to get a convincing answer from them.

Pakistan was SHOCKED when NO country...I repeat, NO country, supported them after the stunt they pulled in Kargil. I mean, even China told them to cool it!

Heres an example of the Pakistani ``introspection`` of Kargil & Kashmir:

1)It was a BRILLIANT tactical move because it internationalised the Kashmir issue (Yoohoo! dummies, the Kashmir issue WAS internationalised the day India started the chain of events with Pokharan 11).

2)It was because of Siachen that the Kargil was justified (only Pakistan BUYS that bs logic).

3) Kargil was good because it exposed India`s tactical weakness. Nevermind, that Pakistan was dragged through the mud internationally...it was a VICTORY for Pakistan!:)

4)Mushy is a brilliant military commander, because he was the brainchild behind Kargil. Oh yeah...he`s also a very honest & sincere Pakistan patriot. Nevermind that as a COAS, he goes on BBC TV & says (with a straight, sincere & honest expression), that NO Pakistani regular troops were ever involved in Kargil!!! ...

Romair`s ``excuse`` is that ``he was just doing his job!!...as a COAS, its his duty to defend his actions in the best possible way!``

NICE TRY!, NO cigar...when a guy is caught with his pants down & then LIES..you dont get any sympathy votes...not even from your friends!

But NO!..the Pakistani rationalisation is that the BBC is anti-Pakistan! Its the Bharatiya Broadcasting Corporation!! The Western media is against Pakistan & Islam because of an elaborate hindu-jewish conspiracy!!

Keep it up, Pakistan!!...you are just digging your own grave with your bs..

Want to know some BITTER truths, Pakistan?! Ofcourse you will deny it..afterall I`m just a non-expert!

a) The world (including your friends) does NOT consider Pakistan`s stance on Kashmir as ``more moral``!

b) Even if some countries may be sympathetic to Pakistan`s stance, it seems no country is willing to twist India`s arm for the sake of Pakistani friendship. That makes ALL the diffrence in international relations (correct me if I`m wrong, Feroze)

c)Pakistan should realise Indian mentality...even if India bleeds, it will make sure Pakistan bleeds more because of Kashmir. The fact is, Pakistan HAS bled more...but the GoP is too ``proud`` to admit that bitter truth..it couches such language as ``strategic U-turns``...who the FCUK is Pakistan trying to kid?!

d) If Indian Kashmiris have ANY hope for autonomy or independance...Pakistan should distance themselves from this issue as much as possible. They have RUINED whatever ``moral ascendancy`` the Indian Kashmiris have in their just fight with India. Shedding crocodile tears for them by calling it ``captive Kashmir`` is nothing but ylh``esque`` verbal masturbation!

e)Isnt it strange that Pakistanis HATE India`s ``bullying`` in Kashmir?! But they conveniently forget that the BIGGEST bully is the ``world famous`` Pakistani military! I mean they ``bullyied`` the ENTIRE nation of Pakistan by 3 military coups. Essentially, it is ``do it our way, Pakistan...Gen Mushy knows BEST..or we`ll kick your butts``.

f)In their eagerness to ``stand tall`` towards India`s bullying, the ``world famous`` military is meekly licking America`s & Saudi`s butts...Oh thats not butt-licking! Thats just ``strategy``!..

Pakistan! Its a good thing your nation has started being introspective. But if you want to be introspective, FIRST start addressing some BITTER truths...only THEN will your introspection bear some fruit...

Sameer,

{{The point is that optimism without the consideration of probability or likelihood of happening is a futile exercise. Optimism alone does not help people to act and think positively, positive thinking and determination do.}}

Well, thats PRECISELY why I called Romair`s optimism ``Polyannish``.

I think its unfair to think there are no people in Pakistan who think like Romair. Yes, Pakistan has no shortage of pessimissts...BUT if Pakistan has to make it, she NEEDS people like Romair..

In American folklore, Polyanna was this 12yr old girl who had an incredibly bright, cheerful, optimistic view of the world around her. On the plus side, her character bought a smile & good cheer to the people around her...& made them not give up, no matter how bleak things looked.. On the minus side, her optimism was rather naieve & had a childlike (not CHILDISH) innocence.

The moral of the story is ``Every cloud has a silver lining...BUT... if we just concentrate on just the silver lining, we just might lose objectivity about the cloud!``:)

For eg...if Polyanna visited a friend who was paralysed from the neck down, her comments would be something like the following...

``WOW! my friend BLINKED her eyes today!!

isnt that absolutely WONDERFUL?!!..

Tommorrow, she will sit up & talk...

The next day, she will start walking!...

The day after, she will start running!!...

In the following days, she will run a marathon!!!

Dont be surprised if she wins the Olymic gold in marathon, someday!!!...``

THAT, in a nutshell, is what Romair`s outlook on Pakistan`s future is...

Is there a potential that can happen?! Sure there is!! But what is the likelyhood of that happening?! My friend Romair has the knack of giving you facts & figures that might just sound convincing (er..maybe for a second), post articles from ``experts`` that will agree with his point.

Now, wait a minute! there is a POSSIBILITY that Polyanna`s friend will win an Olympic Marathon gold one day...miracles DO happen, you know!. But what is the possibility?! Ahhh..thats the 64000$ question!

Spin doctoring is an ART that my friend has perfected...I think he`s wasting his time in the software field...he has the potential of becoming a BRILLIANT information minister for Mushy!

scouty,

{{i think u`re in love with Romair, but both of you are married....so what happens now?}}

tsk tsk tsk..beti:) There is a difference between spiritual love between two male friends & sexual love. Seeeee!.. thats what happens when gals want to become nuns & only want to love God. Why do you think I want to get my kid sis married ASAP?:)

fawad was a nice guy...you BLEW it!

Besides...Romair is the only Paki I can hug & kick his butt at the same time.

Er..dont try this at home...only a brahmin shrink can do it with finesse:)

Wishful thinking can be the undoing of a nation.

Ras

It should be noted, in the context of this article, that the Kashmiri problem is a domestic issue, in both India and Pakistan, and it is the failure of the domestic politics to address this issue, which externalizes this inability in the guise of Indo-Pak hostilty.

India is not suffering from any ``lose-lose-lose`` situation in this crisis, because the sina qua non of this crisis is not the willingness to wage war, but to see which nation has the economic resources to sustain this sitzkreig - sitting war. The argument that the Indian actions might force Pakistan to ``re-think`` are valid, but Pakistan is in no position to acknowledge this prima facie reality, without admiting to its own past misconduct.

Again, domestic political considerations in India and Pakistan will prevail and this crisis will be prolonged, because it serves as a useful escape for the Indian and Pakistani politicans` inability to address and resolve this issue. The only ``lose-lose-lose`` scenrio is the Pakistani and Indian populations being held hostage to the whim of their government; not being able to progress econmically due to an inefficent allocation of national resources.

Indian and Pakistani problems, historically, have their origins in the domestic politics of those nations and they can be resolved if, and only if, the politican on both side of the fence have the political will to look beyond their policies of insecurity.

The Kashmiri problem and with it, the rest of the Indian-Pakistani problems will be solved, when the population in this region, disgusted at the apathy of their governments, marginalizes them and deals with the issues directly - people deal with each other and not through their respective governments.

Ciao

MATURING OF A NATION,

Pakistanis on chowk were waiting for the hindu muslim inferno to spread through india, after it being ignited in ahmedbad. The violence did not spread even into other parts of gujarat, let alone to other parts of india, to kerala where muslims are nearly 25 percent.

At last for the allegedly educated pakistanis, fed on a daily dose of history from the pak.org sites, gujarat turned out to be an unequivocal denounciation of what they have been taught from their child hood. All that learning of k for kafir, all that work put into the identifying of the hindus did not help them.

Indian in parts other than ahmedbad had something better to do, and that is maturing of a nation.

Compare that to pakistan, the jihadis througout pakistan are attacking christian instituions, the jihadists nutrured by the mums and dads of pakistan through collections in mosques are wreaking havoc through out the country.

It a win win win for the jihadists, the mums and dads of pakistan to at alst bring in the real rules of islamic republic of pakistan, after the blasphemy, hoodood and honour killing, the true rule of public beheading and chopping of limbs. That is also maturing of a nation.

saminashah: Yes Romair has written this article but I feel he is not available to respond.

Shankar: In NY most optimists buy lottery tickets! The point is that optimism without the consideration of probability or likelihood of happening is a futile exercise. Optimism alone does not help people to act and think positively, positive thinking and determination do.

You must not be worried about your livelihood due to optimism; you must be worried about your livelihood due to perfect world as hobbes, tahmed, asif naqshbandi, urstruly et al are hoping for. In perfect world, the management consultants will be out of work due to perfect management, scientists will be out of work due to perfect science and technology, police force will be out of work due to perfect citizenry and nation and military will be out of work due to perfect world order. In this perfect world, the nirvana stage, one world under god, Kashmir and APHC will be the only reasons left to live or better die......::))

#: 21

fawad79

romair shankar has a point ...............

honestly pakistan cant win on kashmir its time to cut your losses the most pakistan can hope for is azad kashmir being a part of pakistan and a lot of autonomy for indian kashmir within the framework of the indian constitution . honestly isnt pakistan at the point jordan was in the 60s you remember the jordanian option for palestine ...what did hussein he cut the palis off and told them : you want independance you fight for it .........pakistan is wholly driving the kashmir insurgency i dont see any indigenous kashmiri resistance at all...........is risking the future of pakistan worth one province??????????



Compunder Saheb

India has quantitatively lost much more with men & loss of tax rupees from poor starving indian villagers ..I mean much more pathetic than you ever seen in Pakistan......mean with bed as the sidewalk & beging as occupation...They do contribute by OCTROI & everything that govt tax through Excise of fuel to bidi & cigarettes.

Why dont you take your advice back to Shankar ?

RE: Reply #: 42 hobbes

``The context is different in the following manner -In captive Kashmir there is a history to the freedom struggle and a history of armed conflict, a history of rapes and murders, a history of an occupying army.``

Though I still don`t get your point, this is specious too.

India`s strategy against any insurrection has been to sit on the problem like a 800 pound gorilla until the antagonist runs out of air, gives up the fight and sues for peace (Punjab, Assam come to mind). In that vein, the Kashmiris were ready to give up their struggle in exchange for peace with honor in the early 90s until Pakistan took over the faltering struggle, exported surplus Afghan Jihadis and generally created conditions for the murder and mayhem that followed. I don`t claim India is innocent but the party that pours gasoline on a fire is as guilty as the one that started it.

This is an ideological battle which is why no one in the world wants to touch it with a ten foot bargepole. No country except India and Pakistan even has an opinion on the matter! Just see it for what it is.

u have some very good points here.... i personally think India`s bullying tactics might be good for Pakistan... and u`re right, we can`t let the war rhetoric phase us, it`s good for jolting us awake, to get things moving in the right direction.

other than that, i don`t think we should be so obsessed with India, live and let live....God knows they`re obsessed with us :)

FYI, from WSJ

Islam`s Silent Majority

White Americans unlearned hatred. So must Muslims.

BY ROBERT ASGHAR

Friday, August 9, 2002 12:01 a.m. EDT

Innocents are killed in Murree, Pakistan, at a school that I visited from time to time as a teenager. Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl loses his life in Karachi, a town that was once my home. And an Islamabad church is attacked, just a few miles away from another previous home. In each incident, the name of Allah is invoked. The question is then asked once again: Is Islam a religion of peace?

Many Muslims are peaceful, and I was raised in one such family. However, it`s quite clear that they are by and large not the hosts of the party, but rather bashful guests. For the sake of their faith--and for the sake of a world that Islam professes to care about--the time has come for them to step forward, take control of their assembly, and kick out those who preach a more violent version of the faith.

My family`s story intersects in odd ways with the narrative being played out globally. While recognizing the demands of self-defense and just war, I have a pacifistic streak; that streak did not seem to be accommodated within Islam, so I affiliated with another religion, much to the chagrin of my family.

Here is where they began setting a good example for their faith. Many such families toss out apostates in the best-case scenario and often do much more--a Kurdish immigrant in Sweden killed his adult daughter in January for defying their heritage. But my family made peace with my decision and kept me in the fold.

When it came to light after Sept. 11 that Pakistani madrassas had nourished a culture of hatred, my father used a significant amount of his life savings to build new schools in his mud-hut hometown village--schools that would offer a liberal education and inculcate an anti-extremist approach to civil life and offer economic opportunity to marginalized youths.

Such acts come at the risk of inflaming the passions of radicals. People like my father will need the support and protection of like-minded moderates. Most Muslims are in fact both moderate and cowardly, but perhaps understandably so; they are buffeted by bullying forces unlike anything we know. American agnostics who dislike saying the Pledge of Allegiance, like spoiled princesses who feel a pea under a stack of mattresses, have no idea how good they have it.

The bullying limits opposition to nothing more than snide mutterings among progressives cowering at dinner parties in Pakistan, Palestine or Saudi Arabia. Far be it from them to challenge extremism publicly, however--it`s not worth the fight or the trouble, in their minds.

But now their very civilization is at stake--and so is that of the West. It`s time to put one`s money where one`s prayers are. The rest of the world is looking on with puzzlement and fear, wondering where the heart of Islam lies. In all likelihood, the outcry against Islam will grow deafening in coming months and years. This will polarize moderate Muslims: Either they will feel under attack and align themselves fully with their fundamentalist cousins, or they will become radical moderates, fighting for the honor of Islam against these backward cousins. The former scenario would be a disaster for the planet.

Here, one can learn from white Americans. Fifty years ago, racist views were tolerated, even encouraged by mainstream society. The Marge Schotts of our nation used to get away with their rantings, thanks to the tepid response of most white citizens; but now, such bigots are ostracized with devastating swiftness. Sure, you can be a racist--but you`d better keep it under wraps if you plan on working in this town again.

Let that be a lesson for Muslims. Too many people have been thrown out of Muslim families for being insufficiently fundamentalist. Start throwing out sons and daughters for being insufficiently peaceful. Too many Muslims are more bothered by competing forms of monotheism than by demonic forces rumbling in their own camp. Too many hundreds of millions of Muslims can tolerate, rationalize and even promote violence. All this must change, and change now.

Granted, the language of the Koran can seem aggressive and belligerent to some ears. But let the graceful image of Prophet Mohammed, depicted by scholars such as Huston Smith, become the normative one for Muslims and Westerners alike. The prophet was long-suffering and merciful toward Meccan authorities who had abused him during his ministry. Let a Palestinian child meditate on that. Let Muslims tolerate no lower standard of civic life, and divorce all those who would object.

The five million Muslims who call the United States home are the best candidates to step forward and set this standard. Doing so would give Islam an authentic claim as a religion of peace.

Mr. Asghar is a Los Angeles-based editor of management and leadership books.

shankar bhai #43,

i think u`re in love with Romair, but both of you are married....so what happens now?