Myopic, Malevolent, Megalomaniac

#47 hamidm2: *hands u a paper baG*.....now breathe...gently...slowly...alternatively....LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.....i feel your pain :)

rgds,
samina

Business Recorder in Today`s editorial says: Everything I said in my post of yesterday. If I were to think like SameerBj, I mighht take it to mean that I must therefore be right about other opinions, predictions and such?
But let`s leave that myopic BS behind - not time to for the ``sour grapes`` of the hypocrites who wanted democracy and now cannot stomach the results of the vote

``Election 2002: The roots of real democracy
EDITORIAL (October 12 2002) : With the general election of Thursday, incidentally the most disciplined and smooth in the nation`s history and by all accounts quite fair, Pakistan has taken the first decisive step on the way back to democratic order.

The national and provincial assemblies having been elected, power will be transferred, as President General Pervez Musharraf has announced, to the people`s representatives around the first of the next month.

That would be the formal end of a three-year military rule, which may nonetheless leave behind deep imprints on the course of events, in the shape of its wide-ranging socio-economic reforms, new norms of governance, and, above all, restructuring of the parliamentary system under an amended constitution, hotly disputed all along by important segments of political opinion.

Before the election dust settles, one may expect a storm over allegations of rigging and irregularities by the losers, a natural aftermath of all political contests in this country of aspirants to power as a divine right.

The hue and cry may be dismissed before hand; and as for the charges of pre-poll rigging the Musharraf government never made a secret of its morally unquestionable determination to legally keep the corrupt, defaulters and their ilk away from the corridors of power. All credit goes to President Musharraf and his colleagues for living up to his pledge and holding an unexceptionably fair election.

The biggest proof of their honest intentions lies in the actual results and the unenviable position of the Muslim League (Q) who were commonly labelled as the king`s party and were indeed close to the President with their unreserved support to his policies and constitutional amendments.

Perhaps, a more unmistakable evidence of his impartiality is to be found in the astounding success of the religious front, MMA, who have been after his blood for his pro-American policies. (MMA`s performance may indeed force a serious reappraisal of policy in Kabul and Washington as well as Islamabad). The losers` necessity of rabble rousing and averting political death apart, it is just impossible to programme a general election, for anyone, anywhere.

All elections have their surprises and upsets everywhere, the collective mind being inscrutable in matters of personal choices. (That doesn`t of course apply to the American mind on Iraq which has been assiduously robotised by their Jewish-phile media and well-paid intellectuals).

This election of ours not only had a larger quota of surprises, but has produced a virtual upheaval with the emergence of MMA as major political force with complete sway over the provincial assemblies of the NWFP and Balochistan, while no single party has been able to win majority at the centre or even the strength to claim leadership in a coalition of convenience.

Benazir Bhutto`s charge that the NWFP and Balochistan have been handed over by General Musharraf to MMA to ensure American support for his dictatorial regime, can only be ascribed to morbid frustration and puerile politics. Why should a dictator share power with sworn enemies, fanatically opposed to his policies, and, by the way, why should the super-power not discard a weak dictator and deal with the MMA directly, some components of which had a close relationship with it only a decade and half ago?

It is another matter that the one-time alliance against the Soviet Union has broken up; the Great Game in Central Asia goes on and may throw up new compulsions for the super-power.

As things are, MMA has completely changed the perspective for Pakistan. Its onslaught, certainly on the backing of the anti-American sentiment what with the mad bombings in Afghanistan, the unrelenting support for the Israeli atrocities in Palestine, and ambivalence on Kashmir, is a new phenomenon pregnant with all kinds of possibilities. With absolute power in the NWFP and Balochistan, the kith and kin and immediate neighbours of the victims of B-52 targets in Afghanistan, the clerics will be on test as administrators and policy-makers.

The unhealthy influence of power notwithstanding, they may turn out to be difficult partners in the federation, with serious disagreements on principles. It will take a high calibre of statesmanship for whoever is in charge of the federation as Prime Minister, to forge an understanding with them and carry them together in the endeavour for national good.

As the mentor and guide of the new system, which probably does not conform to his conception and expectations, President Musharraf may have a formidable task on his hands, which will be a test of his mettle, acumen and political skill. To begin with, he has to wait for a workable coalition to grow out of a babel of conflicting interests and ambitions, a team which can act according to rules under a trustworthy Prime Minister.``

PAKISTANI EXPERTS,

With no apologies what so ever, the pakistani experts ranging from romair to sif are beack again. One should remember that each and every one of these were asserting that only 3 percent are the jihadists. The silent majority, who did not take part in the earlier elections, that is 60 percent of the pakistanis are the jihadists. Now that there is a good reason, to support the alquida they have come out in their droves, securing large nimber of seats.

The thick skin and the ignorence of the pakistani experts are out on display at chowk. It is again one of wishfull thinking and white washing, the realisation of the dream dream of jinnah, planned by zia is at last taking hold. The children of TNT, the products of madarsssa are at helm, both in the military and in politics. Experts take note.

You cannot ask people to organise so that they can die for you, support them with funds, facilities and government machinery and then say sorry no political power because FBI says you are a fundamentalist.

I think the winning of MMA members is a more natural situation than the unnatural situation before, hence this is a more stable situation where issues will have to be confronted in public instead of being resolved with hypocrisy in public and underhanded deals behind the scenes. The shady liason of the past is now a marriage with one spouse yelling desertion.

Secondly re U-turn on Afghanistan, you look like a real hypocrite if you change policy overnight and brush the reasons under the carpet of `national interest` without providing a more reasoned and satisfying answer for the public to understand why. The Army cannot afford to provide such an answer and the mainstream parties looked unprincipled for playing dumb while MMA types looked good and principled by saying only one thing throughout, that they oppose the presence of US in Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan.

Hamidm

He does act in mysterious ways; doesn`t He?

:)

after engineering the splintering of the stable political institutions in Pakistan -- the General is now trying to become the `indispensable` arbiter of power sharing -- among the proverbial quarreling monkeys --

but -- Mr. Musharraf`s new creation -- the MMA is going to be a BONE in Mr. Musharraf`s shish kebob -- that may one day choke -- his personal ambition of perpetuating his malingering messiah Dom and counterfeit Kemalism -- to death.

whatever may be his failings -- nobody can accuse that maulvi Qazi Hussain of cowardice in not standing up against the Usurper General -- on head to head -- toe to toe basis --

when almost all other politicians were cowering under the barrel of that Robber`s gun.

So Naqshbandi, does that mean you are going to leave the UK and come back to live in Pakistan now?

Afghanistan`s first revenge...aage aage dekho hota hai kya

An optimistic note from one of my favorite writers, the most famous Pakistani Parsi, Cowasjee:

``Now, to educate the newborn or moribund constitutional experts who lay much stress on constitutional niceties, using as their bedrock the constitution of 1973. This Constitution promulgated on August 14, 1973, had a life of four, repeat four long hours. It was passed, not unanimously, but by consensus by the many members who believed that as it guaranteed fundamental rights it was better than no constitution at all - and certainly better than martial law. None dissented. The few who were not happy with it abstained.

Before the ink was dry, within four hours of its promulgation, the people of Pakistan were deprived of their constitutionally guaranteed fundamental rights through a Gazette Notification issued by the maker of the Constitution, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Fundamental rights having been rendered non-justiciable, he then had all his political opponents arrested. They were held in various jails until released by Ziaul Haq four years later.

Not satisfied with the notification, Bhutto had his Constitution amended seven times between its promulgation on August 14, 1973, and July 5, 1977, the date of his fall from grace.....

The country, the nation, its president and politicians, and we the helpless people are sailing in tumultous and highly troubled waters. We are growing fast, ten are born in Pakistan every minute and to educate this frightening explosion in the number of children and youths we are still relying mainly on the questionable and dangerous madressah system. Ignorance is multiplying.

A military man our president may be, but so far he has remained benign and relatively tolerant - he has not had anyone murdered, mutilated or manhandled; he has not filled up our jails with his opponents; the press is as free as it has ever been. He has managed to rid the political scene of at least a handful of our grand larcenists - no mean achievement this. With a little bit of luck, and a deft hand on the tiller, we may refloat.`` (www.dawn.com)

To all the apologist for MMA, it is not the secular liberals that are killing shia doctors, poor christians and innocent bystanders who happen to come in the path of suicide bombers. What were the components of MMA doing when Taliban were hobnobbing with sectarian killers who have been running wild in Pakistan. Politicians in Pak dont act rationally. Otherwise, why would Zardaris and Sharifs cross all limits in their stints in power? What possible plan does MMA have to provide jobs to millions of young people entering the labour force every year? Instead, fundos are going to stick to things that they do best which is to trample upon the rights of normal people in Pak by enforcing their harebrained version of Islam. Only saving grace that can come out of this is that the experience of living under religious tyranny will finally force people to get over their pathological fascination with Islam. Hope it is not too late by then. I dont pin much hope on khakis either. mush`s pal (another leading light of the establishment) cannot even run a cricket team. PIA`s cricket team can give Aussies a better fight.

Even if PML (Q) and PPP (P) join hands to form a stable government in the center, the prvicialgovernment of NWFP and possibly of Balochistan will be headache for central government authorities because police force is under the authority of provincial chief ministers. That will make hunt for Al-Qaeda very difficult for the central government and regning in on madaris.
Interstingly, the MMA was awarded book symbol and that worked best of all symbols. They were asking to stamp on book and you will be voting for Quran. No symbol could have been more powerful than a book, metaphorically the Quran.
Another much bigger problem is looming a month away. Right now MMA has about 20 percent of National Assembly seats but wait until Senate elections. Each province sents in 25 senators for the upper house. They are elected by the provincial assemblies. Given the domination of MMA in NWFP and at least half the senators from Balochistan, MMA will have around 35 senators out of 100 meaning that any Resolution or Bill to be passed (according to the constitution each bill has to pass in both houses ) has to have almost unanimous support from non MMA senators. That is almost impossible because MQM, PML (N) will also have senators there who might not like to support PPP (P) and PML (Q) coalition in the Senate. Basically forget about anything passing from senate without the approval of MMA.
Really big mess in the making!
hamidm: With so many maulana MNAs and Senators in the company of Islamabad MNA Mian Aslam, Islamabad will resemble another Banori Town, Akora Khattack or Mansura. They might moving yearly tableeghi gathering from Rai Wind to Bari Imam. Hopefully Maulana Noorani will intervene on behalf of ahle-sunnat malangs to keep flowing alcohol free elixir at Bari Imam.

Following is one of the best assessment of the likelihoods of various combinations in forming government at the center. It is from today`s edition of Nation daily by M. A. Niazi who generally supports PML (N) point of view in his columns.
Naqshbandi: I am glad that the results made you happy, although I they are disappointing to me. Let us hope something good for Pakistan and Pakistanis future.
Romair: Please follow some of the information coming out. The counting rigging is nothing unusual in Pakistan, particularly in the far reaching rural polling stations. Check out one of the article in Nation daily by Ikram Ullah or Ikram Shaikh

Well and truly hung
By M.A. Niazi
LAHORE-The final results of the National Assembly elections depict a Parliament well and truly hung, with the only possible combinations to form a government so weird and full of contradictions that they cannot be expected to last for long without serious infighting and other assorted problems.
The root of the problem is that the MMA has won 45 seats, and combined with the seven FATA independents who campaigned on MMA symbols and tickets and one independent from Lahore (Hafiz Salman Butt), has a total strength of 53. This represents about 40 seats which would have gone to the major parties, and allowed them the chance of approaching the magic figure.
The magnitude of the dilemma is shown by the least illogical combination being one of the PPPP, MMA, PML(N) and MQM, with 137 seats in a House of 264 (seven members have won two seats, while one seat in Balochistan is to be re-polled). This would be a pro-democracy ministry which would take the President head-on, and would work for the overturning of the constitutional amendments package. However, the PPPP and the MQM would both have serious problems at sitting in the same Cabinet with the MMA. There are serious foreign policy differences, not to mention issues of domestic policy.
This coalition, however, has the advantages of enabling the PPPP and the MQM to form strong if volatile Sindh coalition with MMA support, the MMA to form a government in NWFP with PPPP and PML(N) support, and outside chances of forming governments in the Punjab and Baluchistan.
As the largest party with 76 net seats, the PML(Q) has the first right to attempt to form the government, but with whom? Combined with its election ally, the National Alliance, with 11 net seats, it only reaches 89 seats, which is no less than 44 seats short of a majority. If it can persuade the MQM and the 19 available independents to join in, it is still 12 short. Those 12 could come from the PML factions (F+J+Jin+Z) (4+2+1+1) the PPP (S) (2), JWP, MQMP, JWP and BNP (one each). Even throwing in Imran Khan and Dr Tahirul Qadri, who will both demand the Prime Ministership on the strength of their single seats, that still leaves an uncomfortably thin majority, and a horribly unstable coalition.
If the PML(Q) can add in the PML(N), it would not clear up the mess, but it would allow the government to function with a slightly viable majority, facing an opposition of the PPPP and MMA who would probably spend more time fighting each other than the government.
But the PML(N) is unlikely to be interested in anything that would give its archrivals any relief.
The next possibility is the MMA coming on board with the PML(Q). A Q-MMA-NA combination gives 138, which is a comfortable figure. The MQM can be brought on board, raising the coalition strength to 151, and it allows the simple formation of provincial governments in all four provinces without the need for relying on independents except in Balochistan, where only two of the seven would be needed. The practical advantage for all the parties concerned is that no one need submit to any independents’ blackmail. In the Punjab, this combination gives a total of 151 out of 296 (where one poll has been countermanded due to the death of a candidate); in Sindh it adds up to 68 out of 130; in the NWFP 54 out of 99 and in Balochistan 23 out of 48 (with three seats to be repolled).
However, the MMA would need to think long and hard about whether it wishes to get into bed with the PML(Q) and National Alliance, when it has campaigned so strongly against the government not just on Afghanistan, but on economic policy. The economic policy of the MMA is not just anti-IMF, but is also focused on the question of a riba-free economy. Such a government would allow the MMA’s NWFP government to avoid a clash with the Centre. The MMA might do as it has done in the past, which is to extract promises from the PML(Q), join the government and then pull out after its promises are not met.
Another attraction for the MMA is if it is offered the Prime Ministership. The PML(Q) has only a couple of strong contenders for this slot left, and the party grandees, the Chaudhris of Gujrat, are more focused on getting the Chief Ministership for Ch Pervez as well as a free hand. Since the MMA PM would come from the NWFP, the Chaudhris would be more than happy with such an arrangement. But will the USA allow President Musharraf to make such a concession? Especially with the attack on Iraq coming up next? One possible way of making this work would be for the PML(Q) to form a minority government with MMA support from outside. However, the MMA would have to vote for the PML(Q) at least once, in the second and confirmatory vote of confidence that the new PM will have to obtain within 60 days of the first, which entitles him or her to take oath.
Finally, there is the ‘Grand Alliance’ of the PML(Q) and the PPPP. The two combined alone cross the magic figure of 133 handsomely, with 137 members. The PPPP has not ruled out this possibility, but are uncomfortable with it because they realise it would seem too opportunistic. Yet one advantage is that it would allow the PPPP leverage in negotiating with the President on the question of the constitutional amendments.
It would also divide Parliament on pro- and anti-American lines, rather than pro- and anti-Musharraf. The PML(N) has a slight anti-US tilt, which started emerging only towards the end of the election campaign. Sitting with the MMA in opposition, it would be strengthened. The MMA could still form the NWFP government with the support of the 5 PML(N) MPAs there.
The ‘Grand Alliance’ would free the PPPP to form the Sindh government as a major partner, and would give it a major share in the Punjab as well. However, since these two parties are the main rivals, it would be an extremely uneasy coalition. It would also allow the PPPP the leverage of pulling out whenever it saw fit, and bringing down the national and provincial governments, and perhaps precipitating a general election.
The PPPP might try to got it alone in the Centre, without the PML(Q) or the MQM, but for that it would need the support of all independents and splinters, the PML(N), the MQM, and would have to win over the National Alliance. Like a PML(Q)-led ministry without either PPPP or MMA, it would be an unwieldy patchwork with a razor-thin majority. The NA would only come on board if Farooq Leghari is offered the Prime Ministership. It would leave the NWFP in opposition, but it would bring the Punjab and the Sindh governments in its grasp.
Finally, the most radical, and perhaps the most sensible, solution is the formation of a national government with a minimum agenda. However, this can only last for a limited period of time.
The political dynamic set in motion by the elections is such that it makes President Musharraf’s dream of an Assembly that reaches the end of its five-year tenure unlikely to be fulfilled. It may well be that he will have to dissolve the National Assembly well before the end of its tenure, not under Article 58 (2b) for misgovernance, but under Article 58 (2a), when no one can obtain form a government.

........ all i want to know is when will we have the first stoning of cable tv operators and adultresses in khyber stadium .......... then i want to know when will we have a vote of no confidence in the baluchistan assembly - i predict in less than three months .......... and when will musharraf dissolve the NWFP government and send maulana fazloo to guantanamo - actually his father lasted almost three years before bhutto sent him packing ........ and finally i want to know when farooq leghari will become prime minister of the PMLQ-others coalition .........

.......... i would also like to know when imran khan will don a fez and start smoking a hooka and take over from nawabzada nasrullah ........

......... it was always wild in islamabad when the asssembly was in session - rafiq the bootlegger was always running out of whiskey, and the call girls would jack up the prices .......... now that the mullahs are packing their bags for islamabad, will they allow nadas into the mna hostel ? ...... it`s going to be a wild ride while it lasts ............ one thing is certain, we will still have one brand of corn flakes - fauji.............

dost-mittar #43: I agree with most of what you have stated. I think Musharraf would have prefered a hung govt. in NWFP, though. Not an outright win by the maulvis.

People need to keep in mind that these maulvis are politicians. Their attachment to politics is as strong, if not stronger, than their attachment to their version of Islam. The fact that they can never agree on anything amongst themselves, including whom to offer prayers with, yet have agreed on politics, should be a good indication of that. Not to mention the fact that one of their leaders openly stated that he opposes co-education in Pakistan, because it leads to, ``harami bachay`` (illegitimate children). At that point, the interviewer pointed out that seven of the leaders of the party had children studying in co-ed schools in the West. Islam is just a stepping stone for them into politics.

They want power, like all politicians. Hardly anyone of them would marry their daughters to Taliban, or send them to Afghanistan, to live (as you have correctly pointed), even while many of them sing the praises of Taliban. They have used religion to get power, much like feudals use land, businessmen use money, generals use military, techocrats use education, writers use journalism etc. Now that they have power, they are not going to give it up by taking on the Army, and the rest of the world, and the dominant Q and PPPP parties simultaneously, by sticking to a rigid stance. Don`t be surprised, if within days, you start seeing the relgious brigade getting more moderate, rather than Pakistan getting more religious.

At most the religious parties will act as spoilers, but I doubt they will be able force the govt. to change national policies. They will act as spoilers through the Senate, where representation is more equally distributed amongst provinces. They will have a very high representation in the Senate, since they won in two provinces.

Relgious parties, in all countries, are always more dangerous when they are out of power, than when they are in power (unless they are the no. 1 party, and form the national govt as in the case of the BJP. - this hasn`t happened in Pakistan).

Regarding the questions on rigging, please see my previous reply.

alhamdulillah I am so thrilled that the Islamic parties united as the MMA and have done so well in the elections! The Pakistani people have spoken and the secularists might not like it but who cares?!

Whatever happens now it is a fact that Pakistan`s political scene has changed beyond recognition and the Islamic parties are now a political force to be reckoned with. Whatever happens now Islam is now here to stay as a potent political force in Pakistan.

The best thing is how the disparate parties have joined together and downplayed their differences under the leadership of Mawlana Ahmad Shah Noorani, the President of the MMA and leader of the JUP.

:-)

Stuka #40: I have been following the elections quite closely, as well as the views of the international observors. None of them have pointed to rigging of ballot boxes, on election day. I am not quite sure how someone in the press could know who is leading, while the voting is going on, or while the counting is going on. I don`t think the press is allowed in the counting. Only the party reps and the Election Commissioner`s rep is allowed. The only thing the press has access to are the exit polls, which can go either way.

However, if you are aware of candidates who you feel benefited from such rigging, and have some facts, I would be interested in finding out. My own guess is that if the govt. was going to rig votes, its first attempts would have been in Lahore, where Q ended up losing big time. And the first persons would have been Mian Azhar and Soomro, and Abida Hussain and Fakhr Imam (four prominent leaders of Q and potential PMs from the Q League). All four have historically always won their seats, yet this time they lost. The second attempt would have been to not allow MMA to win big in NWFP, since it could screw up the govts` pro-US stance. Yet MMA dominated, and even the ANP has accepted its defeat as being fair.

I think on the whole, the election day voting far quite fair. However, in Pakistan, there is no shortage of conspiracy theorists. Interestingly, MMA says the govt rigged the votes against it in Karachi, favoring MQM. And MQM says the govt. rigged the votes against it, favoring other parties :)