Myopic, Malevolent, Megalomaniac

Assad_K: The current results suggest that PML (Q) ia in a position to form governments at center and in Punjab keeping PPP (P), PML (N) and MMA out, because of practices similar to my previous two posts. According to Nation, Taj Mohammad Jamali from Balochistan is going to be the PM.
Romair: I am not surprised at you differing with me. What else is new?
I call it plans and you call them conspiracies. You trust Generals as just and honest and I do not. Just wait and read yourself what the Pakistani newspapers will be writing today, tomorrow and next few days. If you find some resemblances with my points in this piece, I assure you that it would be accidental.
You accept the way things are presented and I question the reason behind them, perhaps because we both have different kinds of training. In sciences ``yes sir`` does not work, reasoning and rationale work. Ask temporal, if I predicted the wrong person to win Nobel Peace prize this year, based on my conspiratorial (?) thinking.

CONVERGENCE IN PAKISTAN,

The emergence of jihadic parties is the frution of a policy set for the military by zia. The jihadic parties for decades have been nurtured by the military to support the afghan and kashmir policies.

The support for the Us action in afghanistan by the military is not a policy shift, rather it has been forced on them by the US. At last in the name of democracy, the military can whole heartedly support the jihadists.

In this context one has to note the posts by field marshal where he askes for sameer to respect the people verdict.

The good part is for the first time there is a convergence in the views of the military and the politicians. Instead of viewing the outcome in pakistan as a success for the military, some are viewing this as an unintended outcome for the military.

It is time for pakistanis to rejoice and for india and the world to take steps towards iraquisation of pakistan. Islamic bomb and the infrastructure in jihadic hands will make the 911 look like a new year fireworks.

Sorry to post another article from today`s Nation daily. What a worth reading, sarcastic stuff this gentleman has written. Absolutely loved it. I must save it to read again later.

What a change!
Amar Jaleel
General Pervez Musharraf`s advent on political horizon of Pakistan on the ominous night of 10/12 was not meaningless. He laboured ceaselessly for a couple of days less than three years to give this country a guideline for neo-democratic political culture in Pakistan. Remember he reluctantly took over the country and that too in the larger interest of the nation on 10/12. He had no intention to end up in the political soup. He is a soldier and likes to be at the frontiers of the country. But, on the mysterious night of the generals he was left with no choice but to return from the frontiers and to occupy the political abode. The destiny was operative behind his every move.
No political pundit or a cynic realised that the professional General was an authority on politics. How did a professional soldier master the mysteries of politics is still an enigma! A nitwit thinks if a general can play games with politics then why can`t a professor of political science gamble with a gun! Does it make any difference!
The results of the azadana, munsifana, and shifaf elections of 10/10 have established the political sagacity of General Pervez Musharraf. What a wonderful political acumen he is gifted with! Many nitwits wonder instead of armed forces he ought to have been in politics. He has brought about changes in the constitution that no one before him thought were necessary for the political stability in the country.
With sustained motivational campaigns through media the General prepared the nation for amazing change in the political scenario. The masses with their enthusiasm in the elections of 10/10 outnumbered the turnout of the voters in the doomed elections of 1970. Not that the elections of 1970 were engineered, and the results were manipulated! No, not at all. The general elections of 1970 were the fairest elections in the history of Pakistan. The people of Pakistan saw the emergence of two most popular and powerful political leaders in the country. Shaikh Mujibur Rahman and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto rose as undisputed leaders of East Pakistan and West Pakistan respectively. General Yahya Khan was then the supreme ruler of Pakistan. He was immersed in the things reflected against him in the Hamoodur Rahman report. He was utterly incompetent to handle the two fiery leaders, one from East Pakistan and other from West Pakistan. The drunk General was thoroughly incorrigible. He badly muddled up the enigmatic political situation that ultimately resulted in the disintegration of Pakistan in 1971.
The turnout in the Thursday`s elections of 10/10 was massive. That reflected people`s faith in General Pervez Musharraf`s political wisdom. The younger educated political lot that has come to the fore is heart warming. It augments the promised change in the political scenario. They are all graduates. Isn`t it a guarantee in itself that the new lot of the younger politicians would not indulge in corrupt practices!
Among the graduate MNAs and MPAs none comes from the dreaded families of the Jagirdars, Waderas, Choudhries, Khans and the Sardars. None among them is a scion of the industrial tycoons in the country. All of them are from down-to-earth families, therefore they know the problems of the ordinary people.
Henceforth, no SHO will huddle up your old mother, ailing father, daughter, sister, and wife in the Police Station to force you to surrender. The rural and urban roguish elite will not torment wretched of the earth. The street children will not look for a piece of loaf in the garbage dumps. They will not be violated in the garages, and the dark alleys. In the name of fashion shows and the catwalk women will not be toyed and enticed by media to entertain the lust of affluent male segment of the society. The great grandchildren will not be required to follow the lawsuits of their great grandfathers pending for justice in the courts for the last one hundred years. The justice will be dispensed with quickly and judiciously. Jesus will not go to the gallows in place of Moses.
The era of great change has begun. General Pervez Musharraf has fulfilled his promise of 10/10. What a wonderful transformation of a society! Had I not been affected by the great global change I would not have used the figurative icon 10/10 for the elections of October 10, 2002.

Hm, lets see... PML-Quisling with 64 seats. Lets give them.. heck, lets go all the way and give them ALL the remaining seats.. about 12. Total 76. Out of 272. Well, lets give them all the independents, too, as happy little neo-Quislings. Another 20. 96. Lets give them all the `Others`. 12. 108. Well, at least we`re in 3 figures. Lets throw in the NA - 12. 120. Now we`re cooking. Add a dollop of MQM, since all Mutters stick together! 10 seats, 130. Almost at 50%.. oh, dang, we`ve run out of options. We`re left with the PPPP, Nawazis and Beards.
Now, if you wanted to point out scary things, that would be the statement from a Q spokesman saying `We have no problem with religious parties`. Musharraf does, though. For the Q`s to ally with the MMA would be going against the gov`s wishes. And hey, that means both the Q and their major partners, the MMA, would be antiMusharrafites! Next thing you know, we`ve got uniformed bodies hanging from lamposts and Sameer, Temporal and co doing a Gene Kelly!
Ah, well, good for me that I don`t bother to read the Nation..

SameerJB:
In response to your post #9.

Kaiser Bengali writes well.
The myth of fauji stability is false. The faujis can only remain in power with the help of the west on one hand while abusing the people of Pakistan on the other.

On speaking to various small business owners trying to survive and prosper in Pakistan (as i was also checking out some business prospects), there was one opinion that stood out amongst them. That of having set standards.

If one has had to go through the utterly useless, inefficient hassles of running a business (from A-Z: from filing papers to register a firm to annual tax issues) in that part of the world, one can understand the desire for basic standards and guidelines that would make life a whole lot easier. But what we see instead is less and less stability.

The parasitic faujiz have done everything in their power to destabalize the country so that uncertainty remains the order of the day. The faujiz do this in the name of the people of Pakistan, whom I have perceived to want stability (which comes with basic standards and guidelines relevant to all) above all else as far as politics is concerned. Because there is little faith in the government providing them with anything else.

The only way that stability can be achieved is through independent institutions. By creating new guidelines and standards at every corner, the Faujiz have effectively insured that no institution can ever be independent.

As we try to remain consistent in our opinions in the face of ever changing circumstances, our ability to do so tests our intelligence. Some can keep up, some can stand strong, others will dance to any tune they are told to dance to feigning innocence of seeing any difference in their stances. These are the imposters.


I’m glad PTI’s chief Imran Khan won. For those of you who continue to insist he is an airhead need to hear him out a few times. You will understand that he has the strongest characters amongst the politicians. He has made mistakes – like pinning hopes on pre-referendum Musharaf. But he had to learn the hard way that the god damned army of the Islamic republic of Pakistan is nothing more than worthless stale sht.

For his disobedience toward the parasites of Pakistan (the army), the government released a loan defaulter and gave him a sarkari league ticket so that he could run for the election and help defeat Imran Khan. That was another reason Imran became so incensed during the last month or so against the government and it’s supporting band of ass-cleaning lotas (ie Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain).

The PTI website was filled with incidents of how the government had planned the pre-poll rigging (the government didn’t need to alter anything during the ballots, as everything had already been done prior to the election date).

A PTI worker was arrested, tortured, killed in custody and dumped into the Indus river prior to the election.

These incidents of harassment go to show how the government was intent upon keeping PTI out. Check PTI’s website and prior Dawn articles for various incidents on pre-poll rigging. But despite it all, the great Khan squeezed through. For me, this was the most positive outcome of the election.

But then I hear this fauji lover Romair personality belaboring on how PTI is ‘my party’. WTF.

We see before our eyes, Romair dancing to any fauji tune that is played feigning innocence of it’s murderous intentions and then claiming he is a firm supporter of the very party his fuking faujiz were intent on keeping out by rigging, and selectively releasing criminals to make it’s leader lose.

Perhaps that is how it goes in politics. One can like a political party, and sleep with it’s enemy at the same time. But since most people are not fools, those who play this version of a double dating game should not try to convince others of their virtuous intentions.

Imposters are easy to spot. Especially when they show up, clad in Khakis.

But that said,
SaDa Imran, aavay-e-aavay!!

dear sameer:

I cannot believe the results -- even Zia could not do the way this man has harmed Pakistan --

he makes me so mad --

I think this is exactly the outcome -- this self-serving self-promoting selfish -- power hungry Geneal -- was aiming at -- by dividing the country, weakening and splintering its political institutions -- use the fundos against BB -- and the Quislings against NS -- all in order to continue his personal despotic rule unchallenged.

now one can understand why he deliberately kept the secular mainstream parties at bay -- and allowed the Jihadis to have a free hand -- just to achieve his nefarious objectives -

in this he is hundred times worse than Zia --

at least Zia was honest about his Islamization -- not devious like this creep.

EU observers say Pakistan poll seriously flawed (Reuters)
By Zeeshan Haider
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - The European Union on Saturday dismissed last week`s general election in Pakistan as seriously flawed, saying authorities had favoured parties which backed President Pervez Musharraf.
``The holding of a general election does not in itself guarantee the establishment of a democracy,`` the EU`s chief election observer, John Cushnahan, told a news conference.
``Regrettably... the Pakistan authorities engaged in a course of action which resulted in serious flaws in the electoral process.``
An EU report said had misused state resources to favour political parties -- in particular the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) which emerged as the strongest party in the election.
With just five of 272 constituency seats still to be confirmed, the League -- dubbed the ``king`s party`` for its backing of Musharraf -- had won 77 seats.
The Pakistan Peoples Party of exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, with 62 seats, has already dismissed the election as rigged.
The EU report also criticised constitutional changes enacted before the poll which gave Musharraf the right to dismiss the parliament, and which institutionalised the role of the military through a National Security Council.
``The restoration of democracy in this country is about the transfer of power from a military to a civilian administration,`` Cushnahan said.
``The powers that have been reserved to the president and the National Security Council raise serious questions as to whether or not this will happen.``
Since seizing power in a bloodless coup in 1999, Musharraf has become a key Western ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism.
The EU`s report contrasted with more supportive comments from Washington on Thursday which described the election as ``an important milestone in Pakistan`s ongoing transition to democracy``.
The EU said it had ``solid evidence`` that government officials, both at local and national level, had been actively involved in partisan electioneering, and criticised the Election Commission for failing to prevent state resources being misused.
It said state television had consistently promoted government views, and described an eve-of-election broadcast by Musharraf as ``inappropriate``.
The EU said laws designed to exclude exiled former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Bhutto from standing in the elections were based on ``questionable legal grounds and clearly had a negative impact on the overall electoral process``.
Bhutto and Sharif have also complained that the vote was rigged and the vote count manipulated against their parties.
Cushnahan said taken note of those comments but had not received any evidence from the parties about specific irregularities at individual polling stations.

Good morning ladies and gentlemen: Here is part of Nawaz Sharif`s statement from Jeddah after reading this article on chowk and lengthy discussion with one, SameerJB from NY........:-)
[Referring to media reports, the former prime minister claimed that an order had been given to the Election Commission to delay announcement of the results. “The election results from city of Lahore has set the trend of an overwhelming victory of the PML(N) after which the government ordered the Election Commission not to announce any result so that the vote count could be rigged.”
Nawaz said that those PML(N) candidates who had already won in physical count before the returning officers and polling agents had later discovered they had lost by a narrow margin of votes. ]
nasah: You said it right. Trying to iutsmart everybody forgets the downside of such practices. NS tried hard to destroy BB but could not and Musharraf failed miserably to destroy NS and BB. I am not sure about closet Jamaatia but many in the military are like General Aziz, JCSC, having sympathies for religious parties and their contributions to Afghan and Kashmir policies.
Assad_K: The way I calculated numbers was PPP + PML (N) + MMA = less than half of total seats. I do not know the situation this morning as I have not browsed through news from Pakistan. I guess EC has yet to declare quite a few results. BTW, what is your take on announcing MMA winners much before than anyother party all over the country. Why counting was fast and declaration of final results quickly for MMA? Is it possible that it gave free hand to manipulate rest of the results because now USA would not have objected to the efforts of keeping MMA out? Of course, you know what happened in Lahore, once unofficial results were made public - wiping out of King`s party.
rozaiba: Bargain is mich bigger part of civilian discourse than military. Under military rule, basically following the order is order of the day without worrying about changing the order or compromise.

Myopic, Malevolent and Megalomaniac - The author describes himself.
The author correctly predicted the winner of the Nobel prize therefore he ``science`` dictates that he is also correct, in his other exertions. So much for megalomania.

The results are indeed fortuitous and the elections themselves by and large, free, fair and transparent, at least that is the opinion of observers -but why allow facts to get in the way. When the facts do not support theory, we`ll just change the facts, Science! Malevolent! and ignorant.

The rise of MMA in the particular regions of the NW and SW is fortuitous, promising, and not without implications for events across the border. It strengthens the position of the federal government, while offering resolve and direction for governance beyond the border. The promise rests in the opportunity to shapae policy and in the ability to learn from failure. Myopic?

nasah!

Do you live in Chicago Land area? Just curious.

Assad_K: Your remarks make a lot of sense, as usual.

The results are as predicted (except MMA). I thought the maulvis would get wiped out, however they won big. Most of my other predictions (read hopes) ended up being quite accurate. There was going to be a change in the assemblies, since people were fed up with the old politicos. I was hoping PTI would fill the vacuum, but MMA ended up filling it.

MMA has basically won on the Sept 11 scenario. The ANP supported the US attacks and has been completely wiped out. I have got to hand it to the ANP leadership though. They accepted defeat in an upright manner. The congratulated their opponents and all their leadership has resigned from their party positions. All other parties are still busy blaming each other.

The election was as fair as any my lifetime (except maybe the pre 71 election). The govt. favored the Q league before the election, by setting it up. But it did not rig the elections.The govts. two PM candidates (Azhar and Soomro) both lost. And the maulvis won, which indicates fairness, since they were anti-Musharraf.

I am glad to see a change in leadership, even if maulvis are the catalysts. The worst thing that can happen in politics is for the same parties to come back in, while the country is going down. Now the MQM and ANP and Baluchi sardars have gotten a kick in the pants. Next time they will work more for their constituencies.

If I were Musharraf and the Q league, I would try to form a joint PPPP and PML(Q) govt. in the center. And if I were PPPP, I would tell BB to shut up, and leave Pakistan alone. It is about time, Pakistan (and PPP) get out of the remote control of Bhuttos. (please read Mazari`s Journey to Disallusionment for info on Bhuttos).

PPP is a decent party, if the Bhuttos leave it alone. I think BB is sh//t scared now. Why? Because she is afraid she may lose control of the PPP, if PPP is offered the PM spot. The PM will then automatically start dominating the party. Therefore she has stated that she will pick the PM candidate from the PPP side (how arrogant - the elected PPP membes should pick the candidate). BB actually hasn`t been put in exile by Musharraf, as many people keep saying. She is in self-exile, because she has corruption cases against her, filed by Nawaz Sharif which are open and shut legally. So she knows she will be put in jail, by the courts, if she returns.

I think Amin Fahim will (should) be the PM. PML(Q) will form the govt in Punjab, with independents. MMA in NWFP. Q/PPP in Baluchistan. And PPP/MQM in Sind. I think Q and Musharraf may have offered this to PPP. If PPP is really concerned about Pakistan, then they need to retire BB. She and her husband are a chain around PPP`s feet. She wasn`t here in the elections, yet PPP still did as well as it could have done. BB was always a liability to Pakistan, she is now a liability to PPP also.

Musharraf has come out smelling like roses. He outsmarted everyone. He held a free and fair election. Got the hung parliment he wanted. Q won the most seats, which he wanted. And the maulvis are there to keep USA on its toes, reminding the USA to remain engaged in Pakistan. Now if he brings PPP into power, it will be a great gesture, and will result in the start of the end of BB (I think). If he shoves PPP into opposition, then BB will have a field day again.

The guy who is really down and out is Nawaz Sharif. He is a spent force now. If the remaining PMLs unite, then Sharifs are finished. If PPP and Q unite, N is in opposition, and out in the cold. Altaf Bhai is no longer the badmash of Karachi either (thank God). It is good to see Karachi split amongst parties. Altaf Bhai cannot control it now. The Muhajir voters simply didn`t come out and vote. Normally, MQM wins by the largest margins of any party.

Imran Khan made it in. This should be a good start for PTI. It now has a foot in the door. And people finally believe that Imran Khan is a legitimate political entity. PTI will now attract some powerful personalities. Interestingly, Imran Khan won from very rural, extremely conservative and borderline feudal Mianwali. While the conservative Jamaat won from urban Lahore, wher Imran lost. Imran beat the combined PPP and PML candidate, which is an achievement.

The, ``English speaking overly secularatic`` brigade of Pakistan is now in a huge dilemma. It is funny to see them squibble. They (correctly) wanted free elections and democracy. They (correclty) wanted an end to Marial Law. Both have occured. However, the results have been exactly the opposite of what they wanted, i.e. maulvi brigade is in. Now, they don`t know what to say. They hate the maulvis and they hate Musharraf. But now, Musharraf is the only thing keeping the maulvis from power. Hence, they don`t know whom to hate now. I hope they don`t start hating democracy. They are thus using conspiracy theories to satisfy themselves.

I am happy with the results. Pakistan is not a maulvi country, so I can never see a BJP type scenario occuring in Pakistan. The MMA is too fractured an alliance, and will have to balance its views. I think MMA may eventually, fall apart. No one party has won big. Which is good. Pakistan has had its shares of, ``ahvy mundaats.`` Now it is time for the political parties to stop their political bickering, join together, and form a united govt. This is a golden opportunity for them to show that they can actually govern, and not just get elected and rob.

As for Musharraf, he has done his good deeds for Pakistan. Not counting the referendum, he has done a good job, and has kept his word. He should now give PPP part of the power. In return PPP leaders should vote him in as President. The constitutional amendments should be voted in, with a sunset clause of ten to fifteen years. Musharraf should now become the elder statesman and retreat into the background, and only come into the front, if the govt. starts getting really corrupt.

A change in leadership, in countries with poor political governance, is a good thing (even if by the maulvi brigade). The sardars of Baluchistan will now finally start losing their sardari. And the feudals (even though as a whole, they are still in power) will have to rethink their priorities. All of this is good. Once the feudals are kicked out, the maulvi brigade will automatically lose popularity, and a more urban version of the PPP and PML, alongwith parties like PTI, will form the leadership of Pakistan.

P.S. do you know if Ayaz Amir won?

The results of the 2002 elections in Pakistan are slowly trickling out and there seems to be a distinct change; notably in Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier province. It is too early to make a definative prognosis about the results of the elections or what they foretell for Pakistan, but a few observations can be made about the election results.

One; This has to be the most nationalist/provincial elections since 1971. It seems that, as per practice, PPP-P will dominate Sindh; PML (all factions) will dominate Punjab; the religious parties will end up dominating Baluchistand and NWFP. Taking the latter two first, it was only natural that the religious parties ended up winning considerable seats from those provinces, because those provinces have always been conservative and secondly, this was an anti-Musharrraf reaction based on his pro-western policies and lessening of the traditional tribal autonomy under his rule - for example joint US-Pakistan military operations in the the tribal belt.

For the first time in the history of Pakistan, there is a national representation in parliament as both the secular (PPP-P and PML) parties will share power with religious parties and there is a city-village representation and for the first time, NWFP and Baluchistan have representation without resorting to any interalia representations in parliament. The new parliament represents Pakistan, because all of Pakistan`s regional parties have now assumed a national character and have been elected to power.

Two; since none of the parties have managed to win a clear majority, the country will have a coalitation government and this means that all political parties will have to compromise (an extermely crucial by-product of the 2002 election results) or there will be another political gridlock, thus giving the military another exuse to justify its tangible disdain for civilian rule.

Three; the people of Pakistan are disgusted by the political system and in giving their votes, they voted for the candidates and not the party as can be seen in the defeat of the many ``traditional`` candidates.

Four; this is a ``national government``, because it represents Pakistan due to the fact that the regional parties have attained national significance and thus, (emphasis added) this parliament must be allowed to finish its entire term regardless of their performance.

This will achieve two aims; one it will reinforce the habit of changing governments in Pakistan via elections helping democracy and secondly, it will finally answer the question whether the religious parties can actually ``deliver the goods``. It is easy to sit in opposition and make comments, but it is difficult to run a government, where the compromises are necessary and that is what these religious parties will find out.

If the religious parties fail to deliever, they will be just like PPP and PML and will stand discredited in the eyes of the Pakistani public. In this sense, it is good, because having been elected, the viablity of religious parties in Pakistan will experience a ``litmus test`` testing their capabilities.

Having no clear majority, these parties will compete for power and they will have to compromise, another good development of the 2002 elections and in doing so, they also act as ``check and balance`` on the other parties to prevent them from gaining too much power and this will develope an institutional framework of checks and balances in Pakistan, which will/can lessen the role of the National Security Council over a period of time.

Thus, it is crucial for this parliament to finish its term of office.

Ciao

If Najam Sethi is correct in his assessment that the Pak military engineered MMA`s victory to obtain better leverage against the Americans, then it shows how foolish and reckless Pak generals can be. They are willing to squander every Pakistani cause to perpetuate their unsteady grip on power. All those who used to take pride in the fact that fundamentalists never had more than 2% of the vote in Pakistan, should now sit up and pay attention. If an MMA regime comes to power in Pakistan, then its nuclear weapons and Kashmir policy are toast. Will they be prevented from coming to power via Algeria/Turkey methods? Or will future elections be rigged like this one was to ensure their defeat? Pakistan is now set to be in the spotlight of global attention for decades to come. Little hope of Western business investment going to NWFP and Baluchistan anytime soon though.
Does anyone still believe that NS/BB were ousted because of corruption, or because they proved to be a huge threat to Musharraf`s well-being. The former chief of the Pak Navy who resigned just before the coup has just broken his silence, and publicly stated that Musharraf engineered a coup to preempt a certain court martial over Kargil.
http://www.satribune.com/archives/oct7_13_02/P1_fasihbokhari.htm

Romair: AT least I agree with you on one point that Amin Fahim deserves most to be the PM. It is possible to have a coalition between PPP (P) and PML (Q) but the problem will be dealing with Musharraf, referendum results, future of BB, LFOs and constitutional amendments. It would be difficult for PPP (P) to support and work under the overlordship of Musharraf. They will lose massive public support in doing so. More likely it will be PML (Q) government at center and in Punjab with the help of independents and NA. However, Punjab government have to work from the bastion of NS and his PML (N), i.e., Lahore.
Here are the official results:
Official results
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal - 45 seats
Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam - 77
Pakistan People`s Party - 63
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz - 14
Others - 68
Poll void in one constituency
There will be repolling in two constituencies
It is a simple mathematics to add 77 and 68 to cross the 137 barrier to forming a government .
Assad_K: Here was the unofficial party position at midway throught he election, i.e., after MMA clearly winning in NWFP and all the results of Lahore unofficially known.
Unofficial results/ trends at midpoint during counting
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal - 47 seats
Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam - 59
Pakistan People`s Party - 73
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz - 41
Just compare the official results with these and make your own judgement. With a steady unofficial trend, PPP (P) and PML (N) were in a position to form government at the center, Punjab and Sindh with the help of 20 others from independents.
Moreover, the total vote cast is far exceeding the generally believed 20-30 percent turnout. The pre-poll rigging made 59 seats for PML (Q) possible and counting fraud added 18 more seats to them. Is it difficult to discern?
shammi: For Musharraf, EU observers do not count; US does. He is trying to tell US that he is lot more important than tey think but the problem is that even an ordinary person knows the tricks he is playing; USA is not stupid to believe in Musharraf`s ploy. BB is charging Musharraf with orchestrating MMA success to make him look bad in the eyes of USA. Bottomline is: pleasing USA is more important than whatever the costs would be at home.
FerozK: Good analysis but I still think PPP will be left out in cold not only in center but also in Sindh.

This seems to be the emerging situation in Pakistan.

A coalition government implies that parliament will be fractured and to oppose Musharraf, it will have to unite and unless they compromise with each other, they will continue to qurrel with one another. Just as nature abors a vacuum, Musharraf will still control the power and influence the policy, because the parliament will too busy denying power to others, as usual, than oppose Musharraf.

The religious parties will be given the choice of staying in power by following the government`s pre-ordained policies or risk being evicted from parliament. If, this is a critical assumption, the religious parties are prudent, they will prefer to stay in power rather than ``push`` their Islamic policies. If they ``push`` for a radical Islamization of Pakistan, Musharraf who has authority to dissolve parliament might use that power and dissolve this parliament and thus, the religious parties will be out of power.

That might be a mistake, because it will them a cry for arguing victimization and they will use emotionalism to as a ploy to garner support.

The role of the independents is interesting, because they all have to join a political party and how they opt, will decide the evolving balance of power in the 2002 national parliament. The most likely alliance is between PML and PPP-P, because despite their differences they have a similar dislike for Musharraf. Since the independents will more than likely split between these two parties, the MMA will not have the required votes to influence major policy changes.

In this sense, it is still to been seen how Musharraf will deal with this parliament in three important areas of goverance. The portfolios of foreign affairs, finance and defence will remain with Musharraf, and he will not allow any altering in these areas by the parliament. Musharraf has already stated that past policies of the government, which are deemed to be in the interests of Pakistan will not be changed. If this is true, then this leaves the domestic policy as the perserve of the parliament, but if the domestic policy areas of finance and defence are considered, then the question is if they can cannot be changed, what is the role of the new parliament?

The new parliament faces a hurdle from the beginning and that is, whether it will decide to take the oath of office according to the 1973 constitutuion or the new Provincial Constitution Order. PPP has said that it will take the oath according to 1973 constitution and if the PML (Q), the party with the most seats, decides to take it under the PCO, then there is a divide and this disunity will benefit Musharraf, because of a lack of a viable opposition to his rule.

If a party refuses the PCO, then will it be allowed to sit in the parliament, because without taking an oath of office, this parliament might simply end up being aborted in its infancy

How would MMA react to this? That would depend on whether the consitution or power or principle is important to MMA. If the MMA compromise on its Islamic principles, then it is another political party only interested in gaining power. If it stand for its principles, it will risk losing power, because the Islamic platform of MMA does not allow for compromises and their supporters, who elected them, will see this as ``sell out``. Thus, to prevent their support-bank from eroading, MMA will adopt a rigid political posture and to achieve their aims, they have to stay in power, which implies that they will opt for PCO oath over the 1973 constitutional oath. If this happens, then there is a possible alliance of MMA and PML to form the government.

If this happens, Sindh represented by PPP-P will be marginalized in the new parliament, lending further vindication to the Sindhi cries of being politically exploited by the Punjab (PML) and now NWFP and Baluchistan through MMA.

The evil beauty of this parliament`s reality is that, with the distribution of seats between MMA and PPP-P and PML and the independends, there is a slim chance of an effective coalition emerging to challenge Musharraf`s dominance of Pakistani politics. All the combinations of creating an effective coalition are a fraught with questions, because in order to create an effective coalition, all these parties will have to compromise with one another and maintain a united front in all the parliaments` dealing with Musharraf. Can they do it?

The way things stand, Musharraf will benefit from this lack of unity and the question is, was this the tacit intention all long?

There is an old saying, which says that when a person begins a journey, it is always nice to know the destination. Was there a destination in mind, when this journey was started on October 10, 2002? Things do not happen coincidently and there is always a reason behind events and if that is true, what is the reason behind the lack of a majority in parliament? What does a parliamentary majority implies for Musharraf and his policies? Is a parliamentary gridlock better than dissolving the parliament, specially when both secure similar results and that is prevent civlian rule in Pakistan?

What about the elections to the senate in November 2002? If the sentators are elected by provicial parliaments, and the provincial parliaments are dominated by PML, PPP-P and MMA, will a similar gridlock emerge in the senate with similar questions and a lack of a clear majority?

Everything hinges on the practical reality that these political parties, if they want to challenge Musharraf, will have to compromise with one another and if they do not, Musharraf will emerge as the ultimate winner with the real political power from the elections of 2002.

Was that destination in mind, when this journey was started?

Ciao